2003-2004 Repost of the experimental 2003/04 campaign where the "Silver Goal rule" was in effect for extra-time. The away goals rule was not in effect. The match ended if a team was leading after the first 15 minutes of extra-time (Silver Goal). Home Away 2003/04 EC1 KF Tirana 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi - Tirana penalties 2003/04 EC1 Borussia Dortmund 0-0 Club Brugge - Brugge penalties 2003/04 EC1 Newcastle United 0-0 Partizan - Partizan penalties 2003/04 EC1 Ajax 1-0 Grazer AK (Silver Goal) 2003/04 EC2 Debreceni 1-0 Ekranas Panevezys (Silver Goal) 2003/04 EC2 Torpedo Moscow 0-0 CSKA Sofia - Torpedo penalties 2003/04 EC2 Kopenhagem 0-0 Ferencvárosi - Kopenhagen penalties 2003/04 EC2 Basel 1-0 Malatyaspor (Silver Goal) 2003/04 EC2 Brøndby 0-0 Schalke - Brøndby penalties 2003/04 EC2 Wisla Kraków 0-0 Vålerenga - Vålerenga penalties 2003/04 EC2 Valencia 1-0 Gençlerbirligi (Silver Goal) After one season UEFA abandoned the Silver Goal experiment and returned to the away goals rule in extra-time. Since then, away teams have done much better in extra-time although home teams continue to hold an edge. 2004-2019 210 second leg matches went into extra-time: 115 had at least one goal scored in extra-time: - 60 (52%) Home advances/victories - 55 (48%) Away advances --- 40 Away victories --- 15 score draws, advance on away goals 95 went goalless in extra-time and were decided on penalties: - 48 Home won penalties - 47 Away won penalties Concept be damned. The numbers say that home teams have historically had the better of extra-time despite the away goals rule. More recently, the away goals rule appears to have worked better in the last 15 seasons than it ever had before. How can one argue against a nearly 50-50 split? This just adds to my argument of non-stop action after a goal is scored in extra-time and the chasing of the game. There's no reason to abolish the away goals rule when it is this successful.
Road to Lisbon update via Sport: UEFA's executive committee will meet on Wednesday to confirm plans for the resumption of this season's Champions League. The idea has already taken shape, with a final eight to be played in Lison, and Sky Italian have already reported when the games will take place. The remaining last 16 games will be played on Aug. 7, 8 and 9 at the venues where they were supposed to be played. That means Barça will host Napoli at Camp Nou, following a 1-1 draw in the first leg. The other games to be played are Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea and Juventus vs. Lyon. Atletico Madrid, Leipzig, Atalanta and Paris Saint-Germain are the four teams already through to the final eight in Portugal. The quarter-finals, instead of being two-legged ties, will be one-off affairs played across four days: Wednesday, Aug. 12, Thursday, Aug. 13, Friday, Aug. 14 and Saturday, Aug. 15. The semifinals, also one-off games, will then be played on Tuesday, Aug. 18 and Wednesday, Aug. 19, leaving the final to be played on Sunday, Aug 23 at the Estadio de Da Luz. Meanwhile, the European Super Cup will be played on Sept. 24.
There's probably issues with travel regulations between countries because otherwise I don't understand why it couldn't be played out with the usual format. These federations are playing 10+ games in their leagues but they can't play an additional 5-6 CL matches.
I think it is a combination of travel regulations between countries; having a very short time to conduct the matches after domestic seasons variously end; safer (COVID wise) and faster to play all in one venue with no travel days; already losing any ticket revenue edge to hosting home game, so it is all just about TV revenue and not canceling the whole thing; and once you eliminate the home and away format the one and done thing, with not away goals, just 30 minutes of extra time, then PKs just makes sense. 7 games to decide the whole thing, win or go home. 3 wins takes the whole big earred trophy. ODDS update + means already in final 8: City 3 Bayern 3.25 +PSG 6 Barca 7 +Atletico 14 Juve 16 +RB Leipzig 17 +Atalanta 33 Real Madrid 40 Napoli 80 Lyon 125 Chelsea 500
No real changes to the odds I posted above - although PSG is now level with Barca instead of alone in 3rd place, but now I'm including the 538 computer rankings which model the likelihood of each club making the quarterfinals (if not already qualified as 4 teams are), the semifinals, the finals, and winning it all. 538 predicts ManCity as the favorite to win it all just ahead of Bayern, 27% vs. 23%, followed by Barca 13%, PSG 12%, RBLeipzig 7%, Atletico 6%, Atalanta 5%, Juve 3% (but only 45% chance to get to quarterfinals), Real Madrid 2% (but only 13% chance to get to quarterfinals). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ Oddschecker best odds are the same story: City 3:1; Bayern 3.25; Barca & PSG both 7; Atleti 14; Juve 16, RBL 17=good bet if you trust 538 computer, Atalanta 22=also good bet per computer; Real 40; Napoli 80; Lyon 125; Chelsea 500. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner. For me the most interesting thing with Bayern is that their league started earlier and will end earlier not to mention they already won the league, so how will they come into CL in August after no meaningful matches for 6 weeks? Well rested but maybe rusty? I'm sure it is a problem other clubs would love to have, but still. This will be even more true for PSG as their league never even resumed at all. Maybe they can scrimmage with Bayern to keep match fit (kidding).
Yeah, PSG in a much worse situation. Bayern have the cup final against Leverkusen next weekend and then they play Chelsea where they have a huge margin for error (I'd argue that Chelsea have been the best team in Europe post-lockdown). PSG go straight into the quarters after a 5 month break.
Draws for rest of CL campaign. Chances of a CL run took a big hit as we would face Bayern next. The other side of the bracket would have been much preferable and we should see either Atletico or PSG making into the final. Quarterfinals (to be played Aug. 12-16) Real Madrid/Manchester City vs. Lyon/Juventus RB Leizpig vs. Atletico Madrid Napoli/Barcelona vs. Chelsea/Bayern Munich Atalanta vs. Paris Saint-Germain Semifinals (to be played Aug. 18-19) Real Madrid/Manchester City or Lyon/Juventus vs. Napoli/Barcelona or. Chelsea/Bayern Munich RB Leizpig or Atletico Madrid vs. Atalanta or. Paris Saint-Germain
PSG might be super rusty though. Atalanta is in great form. PSG and Lyon should really schedule a friendly against each other (or even two) now that they know they're not playing each other in the CL. Brutal draw for Barca. The worst possible, in fact. That said, I'd rather play Bayern than lose to Juve.
No Vidal ,Busquest in the return leg against Napoli. Chance for Puig make his first UCL apperance though Setien will play Rakitic - Sergi - De Jong instead
I see that it has been confirmed that the Round of 16 second legs will be played in the stadiums of the home teams. Not sure if that's old or new news, but first I'm hearing of it.
At least it is one game Over 2 legs vs Bayern Barca had no chance I won't even think of City Real Juve for now All things considered due to this one game stuff Barca has bigger chances now
Our 538 computer predicted odds of winning went down from 11% pre-draw to 9%. Weirdly our odds of advancing past Napoli went up to 81% (I think it was 77% yesterday). Wish I'd noted down exactly where things stood right before the draw, but if you scroll up you can see the predictions from a couple weeks ago and compare. City now the even more clear favorite to win it all 30%, followed by Bayern 22%, PSG 14%, Barca 9%, RB Leipzig 8% (seems like the 538 computer is not recognizing that Timo Werner won't play in CL??), Atletico 7% (seems too low), Atalanta 5%, Real and Juve both at 2%, all others less than 1% each. Looking at those %s they clearly favor the team from the loaded side of the bracket to win, giving just 34% chance of winning to PSG, RB, Atleti, and Atalanta even though one will be in the one game final, but maybe that's fair. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/
Quick road to Lisbon updates before the games kick off today - well too late as work duties delayed my posting this and it's halftime now, looking worse for Juve and better for Real at the moment: 538 CL %s ManCity: 90% to make quarters, 77% semis, 45% final; 33% win - bookies +350 Bayern 98%, 62%, 32%, 22% +350 PSG IN Quarters already, 64%, 37, 14 +500 Barca 81%, 33, 15, 9 +1000 RB Leipzig IN, 52%, 24%, 8% +1700 Atletico IN, 42, 22, 7 +1200 Atalanta IN, 36, 17, 5 +2200 Real 10, 7, 3, 2 +3000 Juve 36, 8, 2, less than 1% +1600 Lyon 64, 9, 2, less than 1% +10000 Napoli 19, 4, 1, less than 1% +6600 Chelsea 2%, less than 1% to get to semis or beyond, +30000 sources: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ and https://www.oddschecker.com/us/soccer/uefa-champions-league/champions-league/winner (I prefer the European oddschecker but it loaded the US version today, hence the different formula) Meanwhile, road to Cologne, Europa league quarterfinals and full bracket are set: ManU 90%, 55, 36 +188 Inter 53, 34, 16 +335 Sevilla 52, 23, 13 +600 Leverkeusen 47, 30, 13 +700 Wolves 48, 20, 11 +750 Shakhtar 57, 22, 7 +1800 Basel 43, 14, 4, +3400 Copenhagen 10, 2, less than 1, +10,000 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/ and https://www.oddschecker.com/us/soccer/uefa-europa-league
ManCity already up IN quarters and now up to 88% to make semis (up from 77% thanks to City not only beating Real, but Lyon holding off Juve); 52% to make final and 37% to win it all (was 45% and 33%). And +300 with bookies (down from +350). Lyon now 12% to make semis (up from 9%). Still the same at only 2% to make final and less than 1% to win it all. +8,000 with bookies (down from +10,000). Credit where credit is due, this CR7 2nd goal was a great goal, but so glad it wasn't enough! https://streamable.com/uze3zj
For a while that 40:1 LPB bet to win it all was looking pretty good. City still overrated but they probably won’t find themselves in that awkward position of protecting a 2-goal lead with 90 minutes to play again.
Now that we are both through: Barca 39% to beat Bayern, 15% to make final, 9% to win. +800 to win it all. Bayern 61% to beat Barca, 31% to make final, 21% to win. +325 to win it all. Just reporting the latest from the sources I linked to above (up two posts), I think we do not stand a 39% chance of advancing... I'd give us 20% or so.
39% looks awfully high. I think we have a smaller chance than that because we have too many players who are too old, too slow, and too average. But one leg do-or-die still gives us a puncher's chance.
But, they're not struggling in league like Barca, and they got CR , and they have better depth than us, it cant be happening
Bayern is not that unbeatable. Thier opponents in Bundesliga are weak, UCL this season too. Chelsea defense is terrible.