2016 NWSL Playoff Picture

Discussion in 'NWSL' started by StarCityFan, Aug 22, 2016.

  1. StarCityFan

    StarCityFan BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 2, 2001
    Greenbelt, MD
    Club:
    Washington Freedom
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Put together my usual late-season table:

    Code:
    Team Pts L Max   Schedule (HOME games in caps)
    ---- --- - ---   -27 -31 -3- -7- -10 -24
    WAS  32  5  47   Orl --- WNY SEA Sea Chi
    POR  29  5  44   Sea --- BOS HOU WNY Sky
    WNY  26  5  41   HOU --- Was Bos Por Bos
    CHI  25  5  40   Sky --- SEA FKC Fkc WAS
    SKY  22  5  37   CHI --- Fkc ORL Orl POR
    SEA  20  5  35   POR --- Chi Was WAS Hou
    FKC  18  5  33   BOS --- SKY Chi CHI Orl
    ORL  16  5  31   WAS --- Hou Sky SKY FKC
    HOU  12  6  30   Wny Bos ORL Por BOS SEA
    BOS   7  6  25   Fkc HOU Por WNY Hou WNY
    
    Predictions:
    WAS: T-WTLL -> 37 points - Somewhat pessimistic
    POR: L-WWTL -> 36 points - Trying to be realistic
    WNY: W-LWTW -> 36 points - Get to play Boston twice
    CHI: L-WWTW -> 34 points - Trying to be realistic
    SKY: W-TWLW -> 32 points - Possibly optimistic
    SEA: W-LTWW -> 30 points - Trying to be realistic
    FKC: W-TLTT -> 24 points - Trying to be realistic
    ORL: T-WLWT -> 24 points - Trying to be realistic
    HOU: LWLLWL -> 18 points - Get to play Boston twice
    BOS: LLLLLL ->  7 points - Sorry, Boston
    
    Notes at this point:
    - Washington needs two more wins to mathematically clinch a playoff spot.
    - The September 11 Thorns-Flash match may loom large in determining which of the teams hosts a semifinal.
     
    kolabear, lil_one and Gilmoy repped this.
  2. BlueCrimson

    BlueCrimson Member+

    North Carolina Courage
    United States
    Nov 21, 2012
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Washington could clinch a playoff spot this weekend. If they beat Orlando, and Chicago beats SkyBlue, and Portand beats Seattle, then that would lock it up for the Spirit.
     
    MiLLeNNiuM repped this.
  3. BlueCrimson

    BlueCrimson Member+

    North Carolina Courage
    United States
    Nov 21, 2012
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Although, I have to say that I'm surprised you're so pessimistic about the Washington/Chicago game. That is one series that the Spirit have owned.

    And I wouldn't be so confident about the Flash beating the Dash. The Dash have a near stranglehold on that matchup, and it took two late Flash goals last game just to get a draw.
     
    StarCityFan repped this.
  4. StarCityFan

    StarCityFan BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 2, 2001
    Greenbelt, MD
    Club:
    Washington Freedom
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wasn't trying to be hugely clever about my predictions, more just win at home, draw on the road, adjust a bit to make the results realistic and to allow for Washington's tendency to pull a clunker about every fifth match or so.
     
  5. StarCityFan

    StarCityFan BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 2, 2001
    Greenbelt, MD
    Club:
    Washington Freedom
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Updated for this week and fixed a couple of mistakes I made the first time around:

    Code:
    Team Pts L Max   Schedule (HOME games in caps)
    ---- --- - ---   -31 -3- -7- -10 -24
    WAS  35  4  47   --- WNY SEA Sea Chi
    POR  29  4  41   --- BOS HOU WNY Sky
    CHI  28  4  40   --- SEA FKC Fkc WAS
    WNY  27  4  39   --- Was Bos Por Bos
    SEA  23  4  35   --- Chi Was WAS Hou
    SKY  22  4  34   --- Fkc ORL Orl POR
    ORL  18  4  30   --- Hou Sky SKY FKC
    FKC  16  4  28   --- SKY Chi CHI Orl
    HOU  13  5  28   Bos ORL Por BOS SEA
    BOS  10  5  25   HOU Por WNY Hou WNY
    
    Predictions:
    WAS: -WTLL -> 39 points - Still going strong
    CHI: -WWTW -> 38 points - In a good position
    POR: -WWTL -> 36 points - Will have to work to catch WAS
    WNY: -LWTW -> 34 points - Get to play Boston twice
    SEA: -LTWW -> 30 points - Trying to be realistic
    SKY: -TWLW -> 29 points - CHI loss hurt
    ORL: -WLWT -> 25 points - Trying to be realistic
    FKC: -TLTT -> 19 points - Playoff chances fading fast
    HOU: WLLWL -> 19 points - Get to play Boston twice
    BOS: LLLLL -> 10 points - Signs of life but too late
    
     
    MiLLeNNiuM repped this.
  6. StarCityFan

    StarCityFan BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 2, 2001
    Greenbelt, MD
    Club:
    Washington Freedom
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Updated based on this week's results with a few adjustments based on teams' recent form.

    Code:
    Team Pts L Max   Schedule (HOME games in caps)
    ---- --- - ---   -7- -10 -24
    WAS  36  3  45   SEA Sea Chi
    POR  32  3  41   HOU WNY Sky
    CHI  29  3  38   FKC Fkc WAS
    WNY  28  3  37   Bos Por Bos
    SEA  24  3  33   Was WAS Hou
    SKY  22  3  31   ORL Orl POR
    FKC  19  3  28   Chi CHI Orl
    HOU  19  3  28   Por BOS SEA
    ORL  18  3  27   Sky SKY FKC
    BOS  10  3  19   WNY Hou WNY
    
    Prediction adjustments:
    SEA @ WAS changed tie to WAS win
    WAS @ CHI changed CHI win to tie
    POR @ SKY changed SKY win to POR win
    
    Predictions:
    WAS: WLT -> 40 points - Clinched spot, looking for more
    POR: WTW -> 39 points - Will have to work to catch WAS
    WNY: WTW -> 35 points - Get to play Boston twice
    CHI: WTT -> 34 points - In a good position
    SEA: LWW -> 30 points - Need strong finish and help
    SKY: WLL -> 25 points - Two straight losses hurt
    ORL: LWT -> 22 points - Eliminated
    HOU: LWL -> 22 points - All but eliminated
    FKC: LTT -> 21 points - All but eliminated
    BOS: LLL -> 10 points - Eliminated
    
     
  7. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    have to say Im a little disappointed in the schedule makers. With three matches left Washington has a home n home with Seattle and Orlando the same with SkyBlue. Some other teams also have the same team twice in three but in those cases it's the rivalry matches. In Orlando case it's a big shrug but the Spirit and the Reign offers the awful possibility that the two teams could also meet in the playoffs making three meetings in a very short time.
     
  8. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    The possibility for a WSH-SEA playoff game is quite the long shot. SEA would have to bump off either CHI or WNY - who, respectively, have 2x's against KC and BOS. It's a bit of a schedule quirk that the WSH-SEA and ORL-NJ series haven't had a single match yet, but I don't think it's horrible - every schedule will have quirks in it unless every team has 100% control over its stadium situation.

    Besides, it's not like WSH-SEA isn't a "rivalry" series already in a strong sense:
    2013: bottom two teams, fighting off the wooden spoon
    2014: met in the SF
    2015: met in the SF @ SEA immediately after the final home game of the season had them meet @ WSH; WSH also had only victory over SEA after their slow start that year

    If these two teams meet three times in just about a month, I'd say "full steam ahead". That said, it won't happen, since there's no essentially no way SEA makes up 4+pts against WNY or CHI (SEA loses the tiebreak in both cases to boot) with the strength-of-schedule remaining.
     
  9. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    My point being that having the teams playing a pair of matches so close to a possible play off meeting is just bad planning. While ur never going to get a perfect schedule Id much rather see them get as close to having teams meet once in the first half and once in the second as they can. Similarly I was very disappointed that the 12 team Olympic schedule lead to two repeats of group matches for the semi finals. Another reason to get to 16 teams ASAP.
     
  10. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    *shrugs* I guess I just don't see how it's a big deal. Yes, would've been nice to split first-half-second-half of the season, but honestly I'm much, much happier about the fact that almost the entire season was balanced (originally, before the rainout game) than I am about one or two series not crossing the midseason mark.
     
  11. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    So now, both the last playoff spot and the Shield are still up for grabs in the last week of the season. Unless BOS can pull through with a win at home, though, that last playoff spot won't be alive for the TV game.
     
  12. Airox

    Airox Member

    Mar 14, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So... what I'm hearing is everyone should be rooting for Boston this weekend? Haha.

    Edit: Not this weekend, but still!
     
  13. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Only if u want a good meaningful match in Houston or ur a Reign fan.
     
  14. StarCityFan

    StarCityFan BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 2, 2001
    Greenbelt, MD
    Club:
    Washington Freedom
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    Team Pts L Max   Schedule (HOME games in caps)
    ---- --- - ---   -24
    WAS  39  1  42   Chi
    POR  38  1  41   Sky
    CHI  30  1  33   WAS
    WNY  29  1  32   Bos
    SEA  27  1  30   Hou
    SKY  26  1  29   POR
    FKC  23  1  26   Orl
    HOU  22  1  25   SEA
    ORL  19  1  22   FKC
    BOS  11  1  14   WNY
    
    Prediction adjustment: In the hopes that Gabarra was gearing
    up for this, changed WAS-CHI from tie to WAS win. But if he
    starts Ali Krieger at forward, all bets are off.
    
    Predictions:
    WAS: W -> 42 points - Making battle for Shield interesting
    POR: W -> 41 points - Right there if WAS falters
    WNY: W -> 32 points - Wins tiebreak with Seattle
    CHI: L -> 30 points - Wins tiebreak with Seattle
    SEA: W -> 30 points - Must win, WNY must lose vs. BOS
    SKY: L -> 26 points - Eliminated
    FKC: T -> 24 points - Eliminated
    HOU: L -> 22 points - Eliminated
    ORL: T -> 20 points - Eliminated
    BOS: L -> 11 points - Eliminated
    
    
     
  15. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    Tickets went on sale today for the Thorns for October 2 to season ticket holders. Same price as regular season tickets in my section.
     
  16. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To add, game time is TBA. Price in my section is $19 per seat, and I consider our seats to be among the best in Providence Park, though not the most expensive.
     
  17. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    #17 WWC_Movement, Sep 13, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
    Yeah, you can't beat that price.
    That's basically $0.21 per each minute of soccer (21.111 cents per minute to be exact).
    And then if you're not satisfied with the cost, then they'll throw in "stoppage time" for free. :D

    Long distance phone calls used to be more than 21 cents per minute back when WUSA launched.

    That whole "stoppage time" free bit kind of reminds you of the 8th minute in your workout being included for free ....

     
  18. mamalia

    mamalia Member

    Apr 26, 2001
    Cincinnati OH US
    Sad that I can't make it to the Final Weekend, due to other plans - but here is a great way to support attendance and do a mitzvah at the same time:

     
    kolabear repped this.
  19. LucyFearsTheMorningStar

    Sep 27, 2015
    Club:
    Atlanta Beat
    Quick and easy call to make. Got the scarf option for my collection too.

    I'm taking a guess that next year is Orlando. I'm hoping I can swing that trip as it's cheaper flight for me. Part of the problem is the date/time takes too long to be announced and I couldn't take either Friday or Monday off
     
    mamalia repped this.
  20. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    Probably Orlando, and then Toyota Park or an expansion team's venue the following year.
    I doubt we'll ever see it hosted at Sky Blue, as their attendance isn't exactly the league's best.
     
  21. LucyFearsTheMorningStar

    Sep 27, 2015
    Club:
    Atlanta Beat
    By then it'll be SBNYC and it can be hosted in NYC ;). Train ride for me!
     
  22. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    Yeah, that needs to happen.
    The venue would be better, bigger attendance, and just a better overall environment for this league.
     
  23. mamalia

    mamalia Member

    Apr 26, 2001
    Cincinnati OH US
    Just went on the Buy Tickets site for the Championship game and this is what I saw:

    SOLD OUT
    Field Level Seats
    VIP Club 100 Level Seats
    200 Level Center Circle
    200 Level Sideline
    200 Level Corner Flag
    200 Level Endline
    200 Level General Admission

    SINGLE SEATS ONLY
    President's Club

    Good Availability
    100 Level West Sideline $43.00
    VIP Club 200 Level Seats $41.00
    100 Level East Sideline $35.00
    100 Level Endline $31.00
    100 Level General Admission $23.00

    That looks pretty good with 2.5 weeks to go and the Final Participants still undetermined (although we can probably put some money on who the participants will be without feeling like we are taking big risks).
     
  24. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    If you go to the Portland site for the semi, it is sold out also, with a couple exceptions of standing GA in the upper bowl or the 221-222 areas reserved for opponents. They won't go on sale until after the weekend.
    You have a better view of the MAC club workout room than the pitch from those seats.

    The lower bowl is a complete sellout.

    That includes the $90 field seats.
     
  25. warh2os

    warh2os Member

    Oct 29, 2007
    If they work it like they do for their regular season ticket sales, is that they will show the 200 upper deck seats as sold until they sell-out most of the lower bowl, then open it up.
     

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