News: 2016 MLS Playoff discussion

Sports Club Stats updated their calculations the other day and at 48 points it is a 91% chance of making the playoffs for the Dynamo. 50 is 98.7% chance so that range is pretty good for now although it can move either way.

Even using 48, Dynamo probably need to win 10 of their last 20. You just aren't likely to not lose at least 5-6 more times so figure you would have 15 games that you get points and you need 35-37 points which means at least 10 wins and 5 ties.

It's hard to make the playoffs with less than 13 wins. Can be done but history shows its about the lower limit barring some odd circumstances.

We also have to jump every team and as the schedule becomes more intra-conference later in the year it guarantees West teams will take at least some points from each game. I don't think we are making it this year.

 

*cue Jim Mora "Playoffs" rant.

 

I'm not talking about playoffs but this seems to be the best place to put this.

The Dynamo are half-way through the regular season. We've played 8 home games and 9 away.

Here are our results against the current Shield Standings by PPG:
Home games are ORANGE.
? are remaining games.

1. COR 1.94 - ?, ?
---------------
2. FCD 1.79 - W, T, ?
3. RSL 1.65 - L, W, ?
4. LAG 1.53 - L, ?, ?
5. NYC 1.50 - ?
6. MTL 1.50 - ?
7. PHI 1.44 - W
8. VAN 1.33 - L, T, ?
9. POR 1.33 - L, ?
10. SKC 1.32 - W, ?
11. SJE 1.29 - L, ?, ?
12. NYR 1.28 - L
13. TFC 1.25 - ?
14. ORL 1.25 - ?
15. DCU 1.24 - T
16. NER 1.12 - T
17. SEA 1.06 - T, ?, ?
18. HOU 1.00
19. CLB 1.00 - L
20. CHI 0.93 - L

Pretty amazing that we have only 3 points against the bottom half of the league (0.43 PPG) out of 7 games and 14 against the top ten (1.40 PPG) out of 10 games. If we would have beaten Chicago and Columbus we would be 1 point out of the playoffs.

I guess it is good we only have 4 games left against teams below #12. The 8 games remaining against the current top 6 should be much better.

It is mostly due to the West being much better than the East but at this point we will have a total of 13 games this year against the bottom of the league and 21 games against the top 10.

As far as opponents go we have almost half of our remaining games against these four teams: Colorado, LA, San Jose, and Seattle. Get used to seeing them.

 

The math is off, VAN has 18 games and KC 19, so the 34 game pace would be 45.2 and 44.9 respectively. That's 27 or 28 points from 51. Vancouver managed 24 from 18 with a losing record. LA would be the template, 26 points from 6-3-8. Limit losses, win between 1/3 and 1/2.

Where Houston has obvious problems is on the road. We would need to win some road games. You compare the difference between us and VAN and it's not home record, it's road record. Portland can't win on the road. SJ can't win on the road, either. You start winning road games and also hold serve at home and we'll start passing people. Maybe not enough, but the goal should be an upward trend that can be built off of. You continue taking single road points and we won't pass anyone. SJ and POR do that half the time too.

Which gets around to the real issue which is this window. If we fix the defense this window maybe we can take more winning-type risks second half of the season. If not, I agree, we won't have any chance at playoffs at current form, we'll be in the 30s total and be watching again. You are not going to the playoffs chugging out 1 pointer draws.

I agree with Newtex's analysis of the random Ws and Ls across the table and think it reflects randomized tactical choices. This team gets violently different results depending on how much the backline is exposed. It is not a bad team, period, it's a horrific defense. If fixed the offense is pretty good.

 

Playoff cut line is currently -3, or 48 points. Dynamo are currently -7.

 

VAN and POR have 18 games at 1.33 ppg and KC 19 at 1.32, so the 34 game pace would be 45.2 and 44.9 respectively. HOU has a game in hand on the first two and two games in hand on KC. That's 27 or 28 points we would need from 51. It's a stretch but even by simply winning games in hand and otherwise keeping pace we'd close the gaps.

 

¡NO MAMEN!

 

The overall aggregate West PPG will go up as more intraconference games occur so West teams are guaranteed to split a minimum of 2 points. Plus, the teams in contention play each other so someone is getting points from those matches - sports club stats has a pretty decent simulation they run that factors these in and gives the % chance to qualify at each point level. I don't think it will be 50 nor do I think it will be 44.

Also, it's rare to make the playoffs without winning at least 12 or 13 games.

 

I hate to get sucked into playoff calculations but....

If you break down the points earned so far by home and away and then project out for the season you get:

1 COR 64.69444
2 RSL 59.98571
3 FCD 59.68889
4 LAG 50.76389
5 SJE 45.80556
6 VAN 45.33333
----------------------
7 POR 45.33333
8 SKC 44.2
9 SEA 36.125
10 HOU 35.65278

So we would need 28 or 29 points in the second half. Which would mean doing something like RSL has done so far this year. They are 5-0-2 at home and 3-5-2 on the road to get to 28 points. Basically win 8 or 9 games plus a few ties out of 17.

 

Doesn't PPG have to go down as the West plays fewer East opponents? So far the West is 27-19-17 (W-L-T) against the East. That is 1.55 PPG. There is no way West teams can maintain that rate against each other.

Dallas, for instance, is 5-2-1 against the East. That is 16 of their 34 points in 8 games or 2.00 PPG. In their 11 games against the West so far they only have 18 points or 1.63 PPG.

OK. Now I have to project points based on EAST v. WEST.

 

You may be correct. 1.50 PPG is the max for a West-West game. I was looking at each teams overall PPG in the West and only 4 are over 1.5 PPG now.

 

Dynamo chances to make playoffs at each point level per SportsClubStats (Dynamo calculated at 14.4% chance overall)

Points , Record in remaining games (W-D-L), % chance making playoffs

56 12 - 2 - 2 In
55 11 - 4 - 1 100.0
54 11 - 3 - 2 100.0
53 11 - 2 - 3 100.0
52 10 - 4 - 2 100.0
51 10 - 3 - 3 99.8
50 10 - 2 - 4 99.0
49 9 - 4 - 3 96.8
48 9 - 3 - 4 91.8
47 8 - 5 - 3 82.5
46 8 - 4 - 4 68.2
45 8 - 3 - 5 50.8
44 7 - 5 - 4 32.9
43 7 - 4 - 5 18.2

 

These both apply to the Dynamo

The lowest position from which an MLS team has made the playoffs after 20 games has been 1.15 PPG. That's four points more than #CrewSC has.

— Matt Bernhardt (@bernhardtsoccer) July 24, 2016

#CrewSC have 0.95 points per game through 20 games. Six teams have been in that spot of 34-game season. One finished sixth, the rest lower.

— Matt Bernhardt (@bernhardtsoccer) July 24, 2016

 

In terms of the general playoff discussion, unless we can manage better than WDLLD it's over and pointless. The gap has actually expanded as we have continued to pile ties.

In terms of the general playoff discussion, unless there are some new faces brought in it's over and pointless.

If there is to be any hope at all, the upcoming monthlong run of SJ home and away, the two eastern Canadian teams, and Seattle needs to net a lot of points. That is the soft underbelly of the remaining schedule. The season close of two Colorado games, LA, and Seattle away will be brutal so if there is any chance it needs to be earned now.

 

Shouldn't this thread have a [NDR] tag on it?

 

Dynamo need to win minimum 7 (with lots of draws) or 8 out of last 14 to make playoffs. That's not happening. Just too far in the hole.

 

Here it is folks, August 28th and our chances are 0.6%. Paint it blackout

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

 

Dynamo have been eliminated from qualifying for MLS postseason.

Dynamo must win out final 3 games in order to get above 40 points.

 

If we get 3 points id be shocked.

 

You'd like not to finish below 1.00 PPG. But everyone we play has or might have something to play for so it will be tough.

 

My Christmas wish: Oh, Santa, don't let Dom make the playoffs.