I tried to analyze the rest of the season and make some predictions. Here's what I came up with (being somewhat optimistic for the Spirit): Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- -5- -8- 12 16 22 26 29 -5- SEA 30 5 45 --- --- HOU --- Hou BOS SKY Was CHI 27 6 45 --- Por SKY WAS WNY --- Wny HOU WAS 24 6 42 --- Bos WNY Chi --- Fkc Por SEA HOU 20 5 35 --- SKY Sea --- SEA --- BOS Chi FKC 19 5 34 --- WNY POR --- BOS WAS --- Sky POR 16 6 34 BOS CHI Fkc --- Sky --- WAS Wny WNY 18 5 33 --- Fkc Was --- Chi --- CHI POR SKY 14 5 29 --- Hou Chi --- POR --- Sea FKC BOS 12 5 27 Por WAS --- --- Fkc Sea Hou --- My predictions: SEA: WTWWL -> 40 points - Easy schedule late helps WAS: WWWTTW -> 38 points - Chicago match will be key CHI: TWLWTW -> 38 points - Tough at home FKC: WWWTT -> 30 points - Only one away game left, and that's vs. SKY HOU: WLTWL -> 27 points - Home-and-home with SEA doesn't help POR: WTLTLT -> 22 points - Hasn't impressed WNY: LLLTT -> 20 points - Road trip doesn't help SKY: LLTLT -> 16 points - No reason to expect improvement BOS: LLLLL -> 12 points - All road except vs. determined WAS team
Updated after last night's game. A real battle shaping up for the final playoff spot with four teams within two points of each other and all with the same number of games left. I think FC Kansas City has the best chance with the easiest schedule (four home games, and the one road game is against Sky Blue), but if any of the four get hot, they could take it. Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- -8- 12 16 22 26 29 -5- SEA 30 5 45 --- HOU --- Hou BOS SKY Was CHI 27 6 45 Por SKY WAS WNY --- Wny HOU WAS 24 6 42 Bos WNY Chi --- Fkc Por SEA HOU 20 5 35 SKY Sea --- SEA --- BOS Chi FKC 19 5 34 WNY POR --- BOS WAS --- Sky POR 19 5 34 CHI Fkc --- Sky --- WAS Wny WNY 18 5 33 Fkc Was --- Chi --- CHI POR SKY 14 5 29 Hou Chi --- POR --- Sea FKC BOS 12 4 24 WAS --- --- Fkc Sea Hou --- My predictions: SEA: W TWWL -> 40 points - Easy schedule late helps WAS: WWW TTW -> 38 points - Chicago match will be key CHI: TWLW TW -> 38 points - Tough at home FKC: WW WT T -> 30 points - Only one away game left, and that's vs. SKY HOU: WL T WL -> 27 points - Home-and-home with SEA doesn't help POR: TL T LT -> 22 points - Is BOS game an exception or the new rule? WNY: LL L TT -> 20 points - Road trip doesn't help SKY: LL T LT -> 16 points - No reason to expect improvement BOS: L LLL -> 12 points - No signs of life
(Darn you for posting while I was typing, SCF!!) So, last night's 5-2 Portland win has done two things: -propel Portland back into the playoff picture -eliminate Boston from anything higher than 4th 1. Portland is now one point above WNY, tied with KC, and one point shy of HOU. It's worth noting, though, that POR hasn't beaten anyone below them in the standings 2. Now, in theory, BOS can still finish tied with WAS, and since they've only played one 1-1 draw so far, BOS could get the tiebreak over WAS. However, that could only happen if BOS wins out and WAS loses out. Obviously BOS winning out is highly unlikely, but the mathematical elimination comes from the possibility of WAS losing out. If WAS loses out, that brings FKC/POR/WNY to 22/22/21, respectively, and all three still have to play each other. (The fact they all play each other is also why SEA can't finish lower than 6th at the moment.) Since WNY already has the tiebreak over BOS, all three games would have to be draws to make sure no-one tops BOS's 24max. However, POR now has the tiebreak over BOS, so even seeing all three of those games being draws would still prevent BOS from reaching the top 3.
Updated with the weekend's results. Also upgraded the expectations for Portland and gave up on the idea of Washington winning any away games: Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- 12 16 22 26 29 -5- SEA 30 5 45 HOU --- Hou BOS SKY Was CHI 27 5 42 SKY WAS WNY --- Wny HOU WAS 24 5 39 WNY Chi --- Fkc Por SEA FKC 22 4 34 POR --- BOS WAS --- Sky POR 22 4 34 Fkc --- Sky --- WAS Wny HOU 20 4 32 Sea --- SEA --- BOS Chi WNY 18 4 30 Was --- Chi --- CHI POR SKY 17 4 29 Chi --- POR --- Sea FKC BOS 15 3 24 --- --- Fkc Sea Hou --- My predictions: CHI: WWW TW -> 40 points - POR loss a surprise, but still tough at home SEA: W TWWL -> 40 points - Easy schedule late helps but lose TB to Red Stars FKC: T WW T -> 30 points - Only one away game left, and that's vs. SKY WAS: WL LLW -> 30 points - Road ineptitude is costing them POR: T T WT -> 28 points - Two home wins big, but now have to go on road HOU: L T WL -> 24 points - Loss to SKY hurt WNY: L L TT -> 20 points - Road trip doesn't help SKY: L T LT -> 19 points - No reason to expect improvement BOS: LLL -> 15 points - Unlikely to repeat success vs. WAS on road
Considering Chicago's current poor form, even at home (so many draws) and Washington's history with Chicago, I think your guess for the 8/16 game still needs to be changed...
You forget who is Coaching DC and Chicago and where the game is going to be played! Rory will definitely have his hand in it an Mparsons won't figure it out before its to late!
Updated with the latest. Even with a bunch of surprise results that have roiled the overall standings, my prediction of the four playoff teams hasn't changed, just their order: Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- 16 22 26 29 -5- SEA 33 4 45 --- Hou BOS SKY Was CHI 28 4 40 WAS WNY --- Wny HOU WAS 25 4 37 Chi --- Fkc Por SEA FKC 25 3 34 --- BOS WAS --- Sky POR 22 3 31 --- Sky --- WAS Wny HOU 20 3 29 --- SEA --- BOS Chi WNY 19 3 28 --- Chi --- CHI POR SKY 18 3 27 --- POR --- Sea FKC BOS 15 3 24 --- Fkc Sea Hou --- My predictions: SEA: TWWL -> 40 points - Cruising to another shield CHI: WW TW -> 38 points - Poor recent results eliminating chance to catch Seattle FKC: WW T -> 32 points - POR win was big WAS: L LLW -> 28 points - Still in line for #4, but not much to earn it lately POR: T WT -> 27 points - KC loss hurts HOU: T WL -> 24 points - Not doing enough WNY: L TT -> 21 points - Tie vs. WAS not nearly enough SKY: T LT -> 20 points - No reason to expect improvement BOS: LLL -> 15 points - Unlikely to repeat success vs. WAS on road
I am laughing at the idea that anyone is predicting WNY to draw Portland. That'll be an easy 3 points for the Thorns.
Despite the Spirit-Red Stars result being contrary to my expectation, it changed my prediction of the final standings not at all: Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- 22 26 29 -5- SEA 33 4 45 Hou BOS SKY Was WAS 28 3 37 --- Fkc Por SEA CHI 28 3 37 WNY --- Wny HOU FKC 25 3 34 BOS WAS --- Sky POR 22 3 31 Sky --- WAS Wny HOU 20 3 29 SEA --- BOS Chi WNY 19 3 28 Chi --- CHI POR SKY 18 3 27 POR --- Sea FKC BOS 15 3 24 Fkc Sea Hou --- My predictions: SEA: TWWL -> 40 points - Cruising to another shield CHI: W TW -> 35 points - Still in good shape for #2 FKC: WW T -> 32 points - POR win was big WAS: LLW -> 31 points - Probably need WWT to finish for #2 POR: T WT -> 27 points - KC loss hurts HOU: T WL -> 24 points - Loss to SKY hurt WNY: L TT -> 21 points - Tie vs. WAS not nearly enough SKY: T LT -> 20 points - Hanging by a thread BOS: LLL -> 15 points - Eliminated from playoff hunt
Many things got settled this weekend. Still undecided are the final playoff spot and the exact order of finish: Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- 26 29 -5- SEA 36 3 45 BOS SKY Was WAS 28 3 37 Fkc Por SEA CHI 29 2 35 --- Wny HOU FKC 28 2 34 WAS --- Sky POR 22 2 28 --- WAS Wny SKY 21 2 27 --- Sea FKC HOU 20 2 26 --- BOS Chi WNY 20 2 26 --- CHI POR BOS 15 2 21 Sea Hou --- My predictions: SEA: WWL -> 42 points - Cruising to another shield CHI: TW -> 33 points - In playoffs despite themselves FKC: W T -> 32 points - In playoffs because of themselves WAS: LLW -> 31 points - Need 1 pt for playoff spot, 6 for home POR: WT -> 26 points - Shooting themselves in the foot HOU: WL -> 24 points - Eliminated WNY: TT -> 21 points - Eliminated SKY: LT -> 20 points - Eliminated despite win BOS: LL -> 15 points - The less said the better
While most things are settled, three things are not: shield, spoon, and last playoff spot. (Well, and home field advantage in the playoffs, I guess.) Interestingly, of those three, the Spirit are involved in two - not only are they still in the fight for the last playoff spot, but they're also the only team left capable of catching the Reign for the Shield. =edit= ignore that last paragraph
Would love to see the final game decide the shield, but given the remaining schedule and current points for each team, that seems highly unlikely.
And so much for that - all the playoff teams are now set, and Seattle has claimed the top spot again. Only serious question left is who hosts the other semifinal. Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- 29 -5- SEA 39 2 45 SKY Was WAS 29 2 35 Por SEA CHI 29 2 35 Wny HOU FKC 29 1 32 --- Sky POR 22 2 28 WAS Wny SKY 21 2 27 Sea FKC HOU 20 2 26 BOS Chi WNY 20 2 26 CHI POR BOS 15 1 18 Hou --- My predictions: SEA: WL -> 42 points - Have claimed the shield again CHI: TW -> 33 points - In playoffs despite themselves WAS: LW -> 32 points - Final playoff team FKC: T -> 30 points - In playoffs because of themselves POR: WT -> 26 points - Eliminated HOU: WL -> 24 points - Eliminated WNY: TT -> 21 points - Eliminated SKY: LT -> 20 points - Eliminated BOS: L -> 15 points - The less said the better
Spirit blowing a 2-goal lead tonight means they've lost control of hosting semifinal - now need to beat Seattle and hope Chicago loses to or ties Houston. Also need to beat Seattle to avoid having to play them at home in semis, where they've never lost. Code: Team Pts L Max Schedule (HOME games in caps) ---- --- - --- -5- SEA 40 1 43 Was CHI 32 1 35 HOU WAS 30 1 33 SEA FKC 29 1 32 Sky POR 23 1 26 Wny HOU 23 1 26 Chi SKY 22 1 25 FKC WNY 20 1 23 POR BOS 15 0 15 --- My predictions: SEA: L -> 40 points - Have claimed the shield again CHI: W -> 35 points - Ahead for other home semi WAS: W -> 33 points - Tie means they need help for home semi FKC: T -> 30 points - If DC loses/ties SEA, they can claim #3 POR: T -> 24 points - Eliminated HOU: L -> 23 points - Eliminated SKY: T -> 23 points - Eliminated WNY: T -> 21 points - Eliminated BOS: -> 15 points - Game over, man. Game over.
On one hand, I want a CHI-FKC semifinal, since CHI-WAS spells certain doom for the Red Stars. OTOH, I think WAS has the worst @SEA matchup, and I want SEA out ASAP.
http://chicagoredstars.com/luba-to-join-red-stars-for-remainder-of-season/ From Red Stars website on signing Mary Luba and...