On the way, Elo-based ratings for the 2015 season. Although discussions about Elo ratings sometimes give the sense that they're calculated using a cut a dried system, setting up a system requires judgments just like any other system does. For the ratings I'm doing, here are the judgments I've made about the variables included in the formulas: 1. With one exception, I do not take goal differential into account. If I did, the ratings probably would be more accurate. I have left goal differential out of the equation because (1) the NCAA has a policy against using score differential in its rating systems and (2) I agree with that policy. I do not think it's in the interest of college athletes to have goal differential be considered. 2. My one exception on goal differential is that I value an overtime win as only half a win and an overtime loss as only half a loss. This actually may make my system slightly poorer at measuring teams' performance, but only very slightly. For a data source on whether games are overtime, I use the NCAA's Game by Game system, which may not be perfect for this particular piece of data. 3. I've run Elo ratings using my system starting with the 2007 season. As a starting point for that season, I used Albyn Jones' elo-based ratings as of the end of the 2006 season. The way Elo ratings work, there is a recalculation of two opponents' ratings after each game. The starting point for the new rating is the team's rating following its preceding game. Thus for an NCAA season, the starting point at the beginning of the season is the teams' ratings following the last game of the preceding season. (I do not use NCAA Tournament games.) For new teams, they start with provisional ratings of 1345, which is roughly the median/average of all ratings. I could use a common starting seed of 1345 for all teams, but I don't. I don't because I've run a test using a common starting seed, and it produces the worst performing system of any system I've ever tested (which is a form of commentary on the RPI, which also uses a common starting seed). Experts will tell you that it actually takes about 30 contests for a rating system to bring initial seeds into their correct positions. This is a problem for any mathematical system attempting to rate college soccer teams, which on average play about 19 games a season. 4. I use a K value of 70. The K value determines how much weight the most recent game result gets in relation to the rating with which the team came into the game. I use a K value of 70 because that value produces the most accurate and fair ratings of any of the Elo systems I've tested. My tests ran from K values of 30 to 110. 5. I use a scaling factor of 400. The purpose of the scaling factor is to attempt to allow easy evaluations of teams' likelihoods of winning based on rating differences between opponents of 100 points, 200 points, etc., in 100 point increments. At the end of this post, I'll do a "table" showing the likelihoods of results based on rating differences in multiples of 25 points. 6. My system makes adjustments in teams' ratings going into games based on home field advantage. The home team has its rating going into a game increased by 58 points. I use 58 points because I have determined that is the value of home field advantage for the formula I'm using. I think that's about it. If you want to see a bunch of formula gibberish, here's the formula by which I determine a team's new rating after it just has finished a game. The formula is in the language Excel uses. This particular formula is for a team that has played a game on Day 1 of the season -- my system is set up to do the calculations daily: IF(Day_of_Season=1,IF(Team_1_Wins=1,Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+70*(1-1/(POWER(10,(-(Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+IF(Team_1_Home=1,58,0)-IF(Team_1_Away=1,58,0)-Team_2_Pre_Season_Rating)/400))+1)),0),0)+IF(Day_of_Season=1,IF(Team_1_Ties=1,Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+70*(0.5-1/(POWER(10,(-(Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+IF(Team_1_Home=1,58,0)-IF(Team_1_Away=1,58,0)-Team_2_Pre_Season_Rating)/400))+1)),0),0)+IF(Day_of_Season=1,IF(Team_1_Losses=1,Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+70*(0-1/(POWER(10,(-(Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+IF(Team_1_Home=1,58,0)-IF(Team_1_Away=1,58,0)-Team_2_Pre_Season_Rating)/400))+1)),0),0)+IF(Day_of_Season=1,IF(Team_1_Wins=0.5,Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+70*(0.75-1/(POWER(10,(-(Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+IF(Team_1_Home=1,58,0)-IF(Team_1_Away=1,58,0)-Team_2_Pre_Season_Rating)/400))+1)),0),0)+IF(Day_of_Season=1,IF(Team_1_Losses=0.5,Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+70*(0.25-1/(POWER(10,(-(Team_1_Pre_Season_Rating+IF(Team_1_Home=1,58,0)-IF(Team_1_Away=1,58,0)-Team_2_Pre_Season_Rating)/400))+1)),0),0) Here are the approximate expectable results for the more highly rated team (win %/loss%/tie %) in relation to the difference between its rating and its opponent's rating going into a game. These numbers are derived from a data base of 24,000 games, so they should be pretty reliable. Rating difference of 25 or less: 40-40-20 In other words, a rating difference of 25 or fewer points is meaningless. That probably is true for any Elo-based system. 50 points: 55-30-15 75 points: 60-25-15 100 points: 66-22-12 125 points: 69-20-11 150 points: 72-17-11 175 points: 74-16-10 200 points: 76-14-10 225 points: 78-13-9 250 points: 79-12-9 275 points: 80-11-9 300 points: 82-10-8 325 points: 83-9-8 350 points: 84-8-8 375 points: 85-7-8 400 points: 86-6-8 425 points: 87-6-7 450 points: 88-5-7 475 points: 89-5-6 500 points: 90-4-6 600 points: 92-2-6 I'm waiting for the NCAA's Game by Game system to be updated with this past week's games. Once it gets there, I'll post Elo ratings through the Sunday, August 30 games.
Oh, I didn't know you ignored GD in your Elo calculations... I can definitely see the logic of discounting it for the college game, but have you tested whether your K-value is relatively high (compared to the FIFA NT ranking system) due to compensating for the loss of accuracy from ignoring GD? I know doing a cut-and-dry 1-0.5-0 actual result makes the points swings further instead of reigning swings in, but I'm just curious if there's some non-linearity in the system that's making things different. The structure of the college season is so different from international play, I'm still grasping with how comparable they should or shouldn't be.
I don't think that it would make a large difference. Massey uses goal differential and scores better than the Elo-based system I'm using, and I attribute his better score to his using goal differential, but the difference in how his system does is relatively small. In addition, as I discussed, the one place I pay attention to goal differential is when a game goes to overtime and ends with a win/loss -- in DI NCAA soccer, the teams play two 10-minute overtimes but it's golden goal so the goal differential with an overtime win/loss always is 1. I pay attention to goal differential there because I think it's the one place one might be able to convince the NCAA to take goal differential into account. By using that one instance of goal differential, however, my results actually are slightly poorer than if I didn't use it. For that reason, at some point I may be a purist and stop the special treatment I give win/loss overtime games. You may be overestimating the importance of the K factor in the ranges we're talking about (a variation from roughly 30 to 110). How systems score when the K factor is varied but the other parts of the formula are kept constant does not change that much from one K factor to the next. In relation to the difference between the college system and the international system, an obvious problem for the college system is that there are only 20 games a year and 20 games is not enough to fully "correct" any "error" in the starting rating for the beginning of the season. That might justify the use of a higher K value. On the other hand, for international soccer one could argue that there is the exact same problem and it maybe is even worse. How many international teams play 20 games per year? And, over a 20-game period, how much roster turnover is there likely to be and is it any less than in college (on average 1/4 turnover every 20 games)? Is it that different internationally? I'm curious -- why do you think a lower K value is better, at least for international women's soccer?
As an aside, the reason I haven't posted Elo-based ratings for games through August 30 is that the NCAA has some glitches in its Game by Game system and can't produce a Scoreboard that covers games from August 24 on. It's working on the problems, but hasn't been able to solve them, at least not as of a couple of hours ago.
As much trouble as you would have convincing the NCAA to use goal differential, I think you would climb a steeper cliff convincing them to carry over Elo ratings from year to year. They have always been adamant that each year starts anew. It makes sense since rosters change each year.
Here are the cpt Elo ratings and ranks following the games of Sunday, August 30. Hopefully, the ratings through Sunday, September 6, will arrive by Tuesday next week. 2180 1 VirginiaU 2178 2 FloridaState 2142 3 UCLA 2100 4 Stanford 2067 5 NorthCarolinaU 2045 6 TexasA&M 2001 7 FloridaU 1983 8 PennState 1971 9 NotreDame 1931 10 VirginiaTech 1929 11 BYU 1923 12 WestVirginiaU 1861 13 KentuckyU 1860 14 WashingtonState 1854 15 WisconsinU 1850 16 CaliforniaU 1849 17 TexasTech 1848 18 SantaClara 1845 19 IowaU 1838 20 SouthernCalifornia 1836 21 Pepperdine 1831 22 Clemson 1826 23 WashingtonU 1817 24 Rutgers 1802 25 ArizonaState 1799 26 UCF 1798 27 MichiganU 1797 28 DePaul 1792 29 ConnecticutU 1792 30 SouthCarolinaU 1788 31 ColoradoU 1784 32 ArizonaU 1782 33 Duke 1776 34 CalStateFullerton 1765 35 Auburn 1763 36 IllinoisU 1753 37 SouthFlorida 1748 38 OhioState 1739 39 BostonCollege 1734 40 NebraskaU 1733 41 NorthwesternU 1718 42 MarylandU 1718 43 SanDiegoU 1717 44 TexasU 1717 45 SanDiegoState 1716 46 MinnesotaU 1712 47 OklahomaState 1706 48 KansasU 1696 49 Marquette 1691 50 ArkansasU 1690 51 MississippiU 1685 52 PortlandU 1679 53 TennesseeU 1678 54 OklahomaU 1656 55 MichiganState 1655 56 WakeForest 1655 57 StJohns 1653 58 FloridaGulfCoast 1651 59 Northeastern 1650 60 Georgetown 1640 61 IndianaU 1640 62 LongBeachState 1638 63 MissouriU 1631 64 Rice 1628 65 UtahU 1606 66 Harvard 1606 67 BostonU 1594 68 CalPoly 1590 69 GeorgiaU 1589 70 ColoradoCollege 1587 71 William&Mary 1584 72 Hofstra 1580 73 Seattle 1568 74 LaSalle 1564 75 NorthTexas 1560 76 IowaState 1559 77 Tulsa 1558 78 TCU 1557 79 Louisville 1552 80 Valparaiso 1551 81 Memphis 1546 82 AlabamaU 1546 83 LSU 1543 84 Baylor 1541 85 MiamiFL 1539 86 SanFrancisco 1537 87 Buffalo 1537 88 NewMexicoU 1531 89 Navy 1530 90 IllinoisState 1523 91 SouthAlabama 1519 92 Cincinnati 1518 93 CalStateNorthridge 1515 94 PennsylvaniaU 1512 95 OregonU 1512 96 StMarys 1511 97 MiamiOH 1507 98 JamesMadison 1506 99 Samford 1506 100 Colgate 1503 101 Purdue 1501 102 LoyolaMarymount 1499 103 Gonzaga 1497 104 Butler 1494 105 Dayton 1490 106 Syracuse 1483 107 Providence 1482 108 UCIrvine 1480 109 Dartmouth 1479 110 UCRiverside 1479 111 WyomingU 1470 112 Princeton 1466 113 WesternMichigan 1463 114 OregonState 1460 115 Furman 1458 116 GeorgeWashington 1452 117 EastCarolina 1451 118 StephenFAustin 1450 119 EasternMichigan 1449 120 Vanderbilt 1439 121 StJosephs 1438 122 UCDavis 1438 123 Monmouth 1434 124 BallState 1422 125 BoiseState 1422 126 MontanaU 1422 127 Pittsburgh 1420 128 UtahState 1420 129 SanJoseState 1420 130 UMKC 1420 131 UtahValley 1413 132 HawaiiU 1413 133 Drexel 1400 134 UNLV 1388 135 MiddleTennessee 1388 136 HighPoint 1388 137 Marshall 1387 138 NCState 1385 139 Denver 1384 140 UTEP 1382 141 NorthernArizona 1381 142 Charlotte 1381 143 Temple 1380 144 NorthernColorado 1380 145 SouthDakotaState 1376 146 Liberty 1373 147 Milwaukee 1372 148 Creighton 1371 149 Bucknell 1370 150 Mercer 1367 151 Columbia 1364 152 Yale 1363 153 VCU 1363 154 Troy 1359 155 SMU 1355 156 FloridaAtlantic 1354 157 PortlandState 1351 158 Towson 1350 159 WesternKentucky 1349 160 KentState 1348 161 DelawareU 1343 162 StLouis 1341 163 UCSantaBarbara 1335 164 Lipscomb 1328 165 CentralMichigan 1327 166 Villanova 1317 167 Oakland 1313 168 WrightState 1312 169 CentralConnecticut 1307 170 UNCWilmington 1306 171 AirForce 1306 172 ClevelandState 1306 173 HoustonBaptist 1303 174 Brown 1296 175 SIUEdwardsville 1293 176 NorthernKentucky 1292 177 Richmond 1290 178 FIU 1290 179 LouisianaTech 1286 180 UMBC 1285 181 MissouriState 1284 182 MaineU 1281 183 CollegeofCharleston 1277 184 Army 1275 185 UNCGreensboro 1273 186 Toledo 1272 187 Rider 1269 188 Niagara 1269 189 EastTennesseeState 1266 190 GrandCanyon 1265 191 MassachusettsU 1264 192 GeorgeMason 1264 193 Evansville 1262 194 Detroit 1262 195 CoastalCarolina 1261 196 RhodeIslandU 1261 197 UAB 1256 198 Fordham 1252 199 Cornell 1252 200 Fairfield 1249 201 JacksonvilleU 1247 202 SoutheastMissouriState 1247 203 SetonHall 1245 204 IdahoState 1243 205 WesternCarolina 1242 206 NewHampshireU 1242 207 LoyolaChicago 1239 208 FairleighDickinson 1238 209 NorthDakotaState 1237 210 SamHoustonState 1234 211 TennesseeMartin 1231 212 GreenBay 1229 213 EasternWashington 1228 214 Elon 1228 215 KennesawState 1226 216 AbileneChristian 1226 217 Duquesne 1224 218 Drake 1224 219 NevadaU 1224 220 ColoradoState 1220 221 WeberState 1209 222 AppalachianState 1205 223 Lehigh 1203 224 Morehead 1202 225 IdahoU 1202 226 FresnoState 1199 227 Akron 1198 228 MurrayState 1197 229 GeorgiaSouthern 1196 230 Hartford 1196 231 Siena 1194 232 GeorgiaState 1194 233 OralRoberts 1193 234 SouthernUtah 1191 235 Xavier 1188 236 OldDominion 1171 237 Davidson 1170 238 Albany 1170 239 LoyolaMD 1165 240 IUPUI 1164 241 HolyCross 1162 242 Pacific 1157 243 SacramentoState 1156 244 YoungstownState 1155 245 UNI 1153 246 Hampton 1151 247 TexasState 1147 248 LouisianaLafayette 1142 249 Winthrop 1137 250 Campbell 1134 251 StBonaventure 1127 252 UTSA 1126 253 SacredHeart 1125 254 OhioU 1124 255 JacksonvilleState 1122 256 IllinoisChicago 1121 257 BowlingGreen 1121 258 Manhattan 1119 259 MississippiState 1117 260 NorthernIllinois 1117 261 Binghamton 1113 262 Belmont 1113 263 IndianaState 1111 264 StFrancis 1108 265 WesternIllinois 1108 266 UNOmaha 1106 267 SELouisiana 1106 268 Houston 1104 269 Longwood 1095 270 Wagner 1094 271 Lafayette 1087 272 TexasPanAmerican 1084 273 Radford 1083 274 McNeeseState 1081 275 Canisius 1075 276 Stetson 1064 277 UALR 1062 278 StonyBrook 1051 279 LongIsland 1050 280 Wofford 1033 281 VermontU 1032 282 CalStateBakersfield 1029 283 NorthwesternState 1028 284 Marist 1024 285 UNCAsheville 1019 286 Bryant 1018 287 NichollsState 1013 288 NorthFlorida 1013 289 Quinnipiac 1006 290 SouthDakotaU 1003 291 Lamar 1001 292 NewMexicoState 999 293 GardnerWebb 983 294 SouthernMississippi 981 295 UMassLowell 975 296 RobertMorris 968 297 American 960 298 AustinPeay 955 299 IPFW 950 300 NorthDakotaU 950 301 Iona 947 302 IncarnateWord 939 303 TexasCorpusChristi 937 304 CentralArkansas 923 305 CharlestonSouthern 917 306 EasternIllinois 917 307 Presbyterian 902 308 NJIT 901 309 ArkansasState 891 310 Howard 875 311 EasternKentucky 870 312 ChicagoState 860 313 Citadel 859 314 TennesseeTech 837 315 LouisianaMonroe 816 316 MountStMary 814 317 USCUpstate 799 318 PrairieViewA&M 770 319 FrancisMarion 733 320 VMI 725 321 DelawareState 711 322 AlabamaState 667 323 SouthCarolinaState 667 324 JacksonState 642 325 Chattanooga 613 326 StPeters 512 327 MississippiValley 492 328 TexasSouthern 468 329 AlabamaA&M 417 330 SouthernU 237 331 Grambling 225 332 ArkansasPineBluff 135 333 AlcornState
You're right the NCAA has been adamant about this. But, it doesn't make sense. Think of it this way: You're going to start the season from some starting point. For example, an Elo system starts from the ratings as of the end of the previous year. The NCAA starts with ratings of all teams being the same. In either case, the starting ratings are going to be wrong. You then have 20 games to pump into your data base to move the ratings from the initial incorrect ratings to the correct ratings. In any circumstance, 20 is not enough, but it's what we have. So, which starting point is going to be closer to teams' beginning of season "real" ratings -- last year's end of season ratings or "all teams have the same rating"? It's pretty obvious if you think about it: last year's end of season ratings are the closer starting point to teams' true ratings. In other words, it's likely closer to the truth that Florida State is the #1 team and Alcorn State is #333 than that Florida State and Alcorn State are equal. Does anyone seriously disagree with that? But, the logic of that isn't where the proof comes from. Rather, the proof is in which system produces ratings that correlate better with game results and don't have built-in discrimination against identifiable groups of teams. When it comes to that, the Elo or Elo-like systems -- Massey's, Jones', and mine -- all do better than the best of the RPI variations the NCAA has used. My Iteration 5 URPI, which is a "radical" variation of the RPI, also does better. So, refusing to carry over Elo ratings from year to year does not make sense. What does not make sense is starting all teams as equal.
Elo ratings, using the cpt system, for games through Sunday, September 6: FloridaState 2195 1 VirginiaU 2192 2 Stanford 2105 3 NorthCarolinaU 2061 4 UCLA 2039 5 TexasA&M 2028 6 FloridaU 1992 7 WestVirginiaU 1959 8 BYU 1958 9 PennState 1948 10 NotreDame 1938 11 VirginiaTech 1936 12 CaliforniaU 1905 13 WashingtonU 1876 14 KentuckyU 1870 15 Pepperdine 1864 16 SantaClara 1857 17 WashingtonState 1850 18 Clemson 1849 19 TexasTech 1836 20 Rutgers 1834 21 ArizonaU 1819 22 UCF 1816 23 ConnecticutU 1811 24 ArizonaState 1808 25 SouthCarolinaU 1800 26 MichiganU 1795 27 ColoradoU 1793 28 WisconsinU 1792 29 SouthernCalifornia 1789 30 CalStateFullerton 1782 31 Duke 1782 32 SouthFlorida 1778 33 Auburn 1776 34 IowaU 1773 35 MinnesotaU 1769 36 IllinoisU 1767 37 NebraskaU 1761 38 OhioState 1751 39 DePaul 1750 40 BostonCollege 1733 41 TexasU 1723 42 NorthwesternU 1721 43 SanDiegoState 1714 44 TennesseeU 1699 45 OklahomaState 1698 46 MarylandU 1688 47 OklahomaU 1680 48 MississippiU 1679 49 UtahU 1670 50 Northeastern 1663 51 Georgetown 1663 52 LongBeachState 1662 53 Marquette 1657 54 KansasU 1657 55 SanDiegoU 1656 56 ArkansasU 1653 57 WakeForest 1649 58 Rice 1643 59 MichiganState 1641 60 MissouriU 1634 61 PortlandU 1634 62 StJohns 1634 63 FloridaGulfCoast 1626 64 William&Mary 1618 65 Seattle 1613 66 IndianaU 1612 67 IowaState 1608 68 TCU 1607 69 BostonU 1598 70 Hofstra 1598 71 CalPoly 1598 72 IllinoisState 1580 73 NorthTexas 1579 74 Tulsa 1576 75 GeorgiaU 1572 76 LSU 1571 77 SanFrancisco 1569 78 Harvard 1559 79 Cincinnati 1554 80 Louisville 1549 81 JamesMadison 1548 82 NewMexicoU 1545 83 Memphis 1541 84 CalStateNorthridge 1540 85 PennsylvaniaU 1534 86 Navy 1533 87 LaSalle 1532 88 StMarys 1529 89 Valparaiso 1528 90 Colgate 1526 91 Baylor 1525 92 OregonState 1524 93 Purdue 1514 94 MiamiFL 1512 95 Samford 1510 96 LoyolaMarymount 1506 97 SouthAlabama 1506 98 WesternMichigan 1505 99 ColoradoCollege 1501 100 AlabamaU 1501 101 UCRiverside 1499 102 Vanderbilt 1498 103 WyomingU 1497 104 MontanaU 1494 105 UCIrvine 1490 106 Buffalo 1488 107 Pittsburgh 1485 108 Furman 1476 109 EasternMichigan 1471 110 UCDavis 1471 111 Syracuse 1470 112 OregonU 1469 113 Providence 1467 114 Butler 1461 115 Dartmouth 1458 116 UMKC 1457 117 Gonzaga 1456 118 EastCarolina 1453 119 StJosephs 1453 120 MiamiOH 1453 121 Drexel 1453 122 Dayton 1438 123 StephenFAustin 1438 124 UtahState 1425 125 BoiseState 1421 126 SanJoseState 1420 127 MiddleTennessee 1417 128 GeorgeWashington 1413 129 UCSantaBarbara 1413 130 Monmouth 1409 131 UNLV 1408 132 BallState 1407 133 NorthernArizona 1406 134 Charlotte 1404 135 NCState 1404 136 FloridaAtlantic 1402 137 Princeton 1402 138 HighPoint 1400 139 Marshall 1397 140 Milwaukee 1390 141 Towson 1389 142 HawaiiU 1386 143 Bucknell 1383 144 Yale 1383 145 PortlandState 1382 146 SouthDakotaState 1380 147 Liberty 1373 148 SMU 1370 149 UNCWilmington 1369 150 WrightState 1369 151 DelawareU 1366 152 Troy 1363 153 Columbia 1363 154 WesternKentucky 1362 155 VCU 1360 156 UtahValley 1356 157 CentralMichigan 1352 158 FIU 1345 159 Temple 1343 160 StLouis 1342 161 UTEP 1341 162 Creighton 1338 163 RhodeIslandU 1334 164 Brown 1330 165 NorthernColorado 1328 166 Duquesne 1325 167 FairleighDickinson 1325 168 Denver 1324 169 Cornell 1322 170 Lipscomb 1320 171 Mercer 1314 172 Fordham 1309 173 Villanova 1305 174 Richmond 1299 175 LouisianaTech 1298 176 CentralConnecticut 1296 177 Niagara 1295 178 Oakland 1295 179 NorthernKentucky 1293 180 HoustonBaptist 1291 181 CoastalCarolina 1290 182 KentState 1289 183 AirForce 1281 184 Toledo 1278 185 LoyolaChicago 1273 186 MissouriState 1269 187 GrandCanyon 1267 188 MaineU 1266 189 CollegeofCharleston 1261 190 NewHampshireU 1261 191 NorthDakotaState 1260 192 GeorgeMason 1259 193 SamHoustonState 1258 194 SIUEdwardsville 1258 195 Detroit 1258 196 EastTennesseeState 1256 197 IdahoState 1250 198 MassachusettsU 1249 199 UNCGreensboro 1249 200 SoutheastMissouriState 1247 201 Elon 1244 202 SouthernUtah 1242 203 Army 1242 204 Akron 1241 205 Evansville 1240 206 Rider 1239 207 Lehigh 1238 208 JacksonvilleU 1231 209 EasternWashington 1229 210 TennesseeMartin 1222 211 AppalachianState 1220 212 NevadaU 1220 213 UAB 1220 214 Hartford 1220 215 WeberState 1218 216 UMBC 1218 217 Drake 1217 218 Siena 1216 219 KennesawState 1215 220 WesternCarolina 1214 221 GreenBay 1214 222 AbileneChristian 1214 223 Albany 1214 224 LoyolaMD 1205 225 SetonHall 1204 226 ColoradoState 1203 227 GeorgiaSouthern 1201 228 GeorgiaState 1199 229 MurrayState 1196 230 LouisianaLafayette 1196 231 StBonaventure 1195 232 IUPUI 1195 233 ClevelandState 1193 234 Xavier 1191 235 IdahoU 1191 236 Campbell 1190 237 OralRoberts 1189 238 IndianaState 1186 239 Manhattan 1181 240 FresnoState 1181 241 TexasState 1177 242 SacramentoState 1173 243 OldDominion 1172 244 Morehead 1171 245 Fairfield 1163 246 IllinoisChicago 1161 247 Davidson 1157 248 Hampton 1153 249 SacredHeart 1145 250 HolyCross 1135 251 UNI 1129 252 Pacific 1128 253 UTSA 1125 254 Winthrop 1124 255 Belmont 1124 256 MississippiState 1120 257 Houston 1118 258 OhioU 1115 259 SELouisiana 1110 260 Radford 1105 261 BowlingGreen 1105 262 NorthernIllinois 1100 263 WesternIllinois 1099 264 UALR 1098 265 JacksonvilleState 1097 266 Lafayette 1096 267 StonyBrook 1094 268 UNOmaha 1088 269 TexasPanAmerican 1087 270 SouthDakotaU 1083 271 Longwood 1082 272 Stetson 1081 273 YoungstownState 1075 274 Binghamton 1072 275 Canisius 1070 276 StFrancis 1068 277 Wagner 1063 278 Bryant 1059 279 Wofford 1050 280 McNeeseState 1048 281 Quinnipiac 1047 282 VermontU 1041 283 Lamar 1030 284 UNCAsheville 1026 285 NewMexicoState 1019 286 GardnerWebb 1018 287 LongIsland 1017 288 Marist 1013 289 SouthernMississippi 1006 290 American 1000 291 CalStateBakersfield 998 292 NorthFlorida 996 293 RobertMorris 994 294 NichollsState 990 295 NorthwesternState 985 296 AustinPeay 951 297 NorthDakotaU 945 298 EasternIllinois 939 299 TexasCorpusChristi 929 300 Howard 929 301 IncarnateWord 929 302 Iona 925 303 CharlestonSouthern 923 304 UMassLowell 921 305 TennesseeTech 920 306 CentralArkansas 918 307 IPFW 918 308 Presbyterian 917 309 ArkansasState 888 310 LouisianaMonroe 885 311 EasternKentucky 870 312 NJIT 868 313 Citadel 840 314 ChicagoState 835 315 MountStMary 812 316 USCUpstate 797 317 PrairieViewA&M 794 318 DelawareState 785 319 FrancisMarion 752 320 VMI 727 321 AlabamaState 708 322 Chattanooga 665 323 SouthCarolinaState 661 324 JacksonState 659 325 StPeters 610 326 MississippiValley 571 327 TexasSouthern 492 328 AlabamaA&M 442 329 SouthernU 412 330 Grambling 237 331 ArkansasPineBluff 225 332 AlcornState 135 333
By way of contrast, here are the Adjusted RPI numbers for teams also through the Sunday, September 6 games: BYU 0.8643 1 Clemson 0.7322 2 CaliforniaU 0.7314 3 Auburn 0.7308 4 SouthCarolinaU 0.7299 5 WashingtonU 0.7201 6 FloridaState 0.7192 7 PennState 0.7175 8 SantaClara 0.7157 9 WashingtonState 0.7128 10 NebraskaU 0.7126 11 Manhattan 0.7042 12 FloridaU 0.6997 13 VirginiaU 0.6944 14 WestVirginiaU 0.6921 15 TexasA&M 0.6901 16 VirginiaTech 0.6861 17 ConnecticutU 0.6835 18 Rutgers 0.6814 19 Stanford 0.6798 20 SanDiegoState 0.6782 21 SouthFlorida 0.6764 22 CalStateFullerton 0.6725 23 NotreDame 0.6722 24 Tulsa 0.6648 25 Pepperdine 0.6590 26 ArizonaU 0.6571 27 Northeastern 0.6473 28 ColoradoU 0.6423 29 Samford 0.6408 30 Cornell 0.6403 31 SouthAlabama 0.6395 32 IllinoisU 0.6393 33 Duke 0.6377 34 Hofstra 0.6371 35 IndianaU 0.6326 36 MississippiU 0.6309 37 Monmouth 0.6284 38 MissouriU 0.6279 39 TennesseeU 0.6272 40 OhioState 0.6261 41 SouthernCalifornia 0.6237 42 LongBeachState 0.6220 43 Georgetown 0.6213 44 IowaState 0.6190 45 MiddleTennessee 0.6183 46 CalPoly 0.6181 47 CollegeofCharleston 0.6154 48 OregonState 0.6119 49 Princeton 0.6115 50 StJosephs 0.6097 51 GeorgeWashington 0.6082 52 UtahU 0.6081 53 William&Mary 0.6071 54 McNeeseState 0.6070 55 LSU 0.6056 56 Furman 0.6028 57 NorthwesternU 0.6011 58 Rice 0.6005 59 MontanaU 0.6001 60 UCF 0.6001 61 Brown 0.5978 62 Hartford 0.5953 63 Cincinnati 0.5937 64 NorthCarolinaU 0.5935 65 Seattle 0.5933 66 KansasU 0.5892 67 Colgate 0.5889 68 Akron 0.5878 69 DePaul 0.5862 70 FloridaAtlantic 0.5859 71 MaineU 0.5858 72 UMKC 0.5842 73 Lafayette 0.5833 74 TCU 0.5828 75 LoyolaMarymount 0.5787 76 MissouriState 0.5760 77 KentuckyU 0.5758 78 IowaU 0.5745 79 LouisianaLafayette 0.5727 80 UNLV 0.5708 81 MarylandU 0.5685 82 StJohns 0.5673 83 ArizonaState 0.5670 84 FairleighDickinson 0.5664 85 CoastalCarolina 0.5653 86 BostonCollege 0.5650 87 SouthDakotaState 0.5649 88 Marshall 0.5645 89 StMarys 0.5633 90 TexasU 0.5619 91 Charlotte 0.5602 92 Siena 0.5588 93 UNCWilmington 0.5571 94 Campbell 0.5569 95 FloridaGulfCoast 0.5557 96 BallState 0.5549 97 Duquesne 0.5549 98 Navy 0.5536 99 DelawareU 0.5535 100 UCSantaBarbara 0.5532 101 ArkansasU 0.5516 102 Fordham 0.5494 103 MichiganState 0.5492 104 NorthTexas 0.5479 105 Buffalo 0.5471 106 IllinoisState 0.5468 107 NorthernColorado 0.5468 108 WesternCarolina 0.5464 109 JamesMadison 0.5454 110 Louisville 0.5452 111 PennsylvaniaU 0.5448 112 Butler 0.5438 113 GeorgiaState 0.5424 114 SanFrancisco 0.5411 115 Lipscomb 0.5411 116 NCState 0.5391 117 UAB 0.5383 118 PortlandU 0.5365 119 Niagara 0.5362 120 UCDavis 0.5359 121 Valparaiso 0.5339 122 UCRiverside 0.5331 123 MinnesotaU 0.5299 124 UCLA 0.5284 125 Drexel 0.5282 126 Harvard 0.5272 127 OklahomaU 0.5271 128 UtahValley 0.5271 129 Temple 0.5267 130 Troy 0.5238 131 Quinnipiac 0.5237 132 LouisianaTech 0.5233 133 CharlestonSouthern 0.5231 134 CalStateNorthridge 0.5230 135 Providence 0.5226 136 BoiseState 0.5221 137 Liberty 0.5220 138 Richmond 0.5202 139 SanJoseState 0.5193 140 AppalachianState 0.5182 141 WisconsinU 0.5173 142 Radford 0.5172 143 WesternMichigan 0.5172 144 UCIrvine 0.5168 145 Vanderbilt 0.5155 146 WeberState 0.5154 147 PortlandState 0.5153 148 MichiganU 0.5151 149 UtahState 0.5122 150 VermontU 0.5121 151 ColoradoCollege 0.5110 152 NorthernKentucky 0.5105 153 EasternMichigan 0.5101 154 Syracuse 0.5098 155 SamHoustonState 0.5084 156 IndianaState 0.5061 157 Creighton 0.5057 158 StLouis 0.5044 159 NewHampshireU 0.5040 160 IdahoU 0.5028 161 Davidson 0.5025 162 Purdue 0.5003 163 Winthrop 0.4988 164 SouthernUtah 0.4979 165 IUPUI 0.4977 166 Baylor 0.4964 167 EastCarolina 0.4945 168 WakeForest 0.4944 169 OklahomaState 0.4942 170 NorthwesternState 0.4919 171 TennesseeTech 0.4877 172 MiamiFL 0.4863 173 EastTennesseeState 0.4853 174 Mercer 0.4852 175 AbileneChristian 0.4847 176 Elon 0.4844 177 GeorgeMason 0.4835 178 UALR 0.4825 179 NorthernArizona 0.4814 180 Oakland 0.4814 181 VCU 0.4807 182 JacksonvilleState 0.4788 183 ColoradoState 0.4780 184 TexasTech 0.4777 185 SanDiegoU 0.4776 186 MississippiState 0.4774 187 RhodeIslandU 0.4773 188 Villanova 0.4773 189 StBonaventure 0.4771 190 MurrayState 0.4750 191 SIUEdwardsville 0.4740 192 HighPoint 0.4732 193 SetonHall 0.4726 194 CentralMichigan 0.4701 195 GrandCanyon 0.4699 196 SELouisiana 0.4695 197 UTEP 0.4692 198 WyomingU 0.4685 199 HoustonBaptist 0.4684 200 CentralArkansas 0.4682 201 Towson 0.4681 202 Toledo 0.4676 203 NewMexicoU 0.4667 204 FIU 0.4666 205 HawaiiU 0.4643 206 Pittsburgh 0.4606 207 AustinPeay 0.4595 208 EasternWashington 0.4589 209 Bucknell 0.4582 210 GeorgiaU 0.4579 211 LoyolaMD 0.4579 212 TexasState 0.4566 213 UNI 0.4563 214 Drake 0.4560 215 SoutheastMissouriState 0.4556 216 SMU 0.4550 217 Longwood 0.4545 218 StephenFAustin 0.4501 219 Memphis 0.4501 220 Stetson 0.4495 221 TennesseeMartin 0.4471 222 SacredHeart 0.4463 223 Yale 0.4462 224 KentState 0.4455 225 AirForce 0.4444 226 LouisianaMonroe 0.4439 227 Marquette 0.4426 228 WesternKentucky 0.4405 229 Albany 0.4386 230 UNOmaha 0.4383 231 ClevelandState 0.4378 232 AlabamaU 0.4365 233 KennesawState 0.4357 234 Columbia 0.4310 235 CentralConnecticut 0.4292 236 Dartmouth 0.4289 237 Houston 0.4289 238 LoyolaChicago 0.4289 239 NevadaU 0.4285 240 GeorgiaSouthern 0.4284 241 WrightState 0.4282 242 Army 0.4278 243 Binghamton 0.4277 244 NorthDakotaState 0.4273 245 FresnoState 0.4273 246 IllinoisChicago 0.4268 247 UNCGreensboro 0.4250 248 DelawareState 0.4239 249 BostonU 0.4230 250 Grambling 0.4219 251 LaSalle 0.4212 252 WesternIllinois 0.4196 253 Wofford 0.4194 254 Milwaukee 0.4173 255 MassachusettsU 0.4166 256 HolyCross 0.4166 257 NJIT 0.4162 258 OregonU 0.4156 259 JacksonvilleU 0.4130 260 Belmont 0.4123 261 UMBC 0.4122 262 Lehigh 0.4118 263 GreenBay 0.4110 264 Rider 0.4098 265 Morehead 0.4095 266 Xavier 0.4085 267 Detroit 0.4066 268 PrairieViewA&M 0.4063 269 MiamiOH 0.4038 270 OralRoberts 0.4022 271 GardnerWebb 0.4020 272 Marist 0.3985 273 RobertMorris 0.3974 274 Gonzaga 0.3960 275 IdahoState 0.3944 276 OldDominion 0.3940 277 LongIsland 0.3907 278 UNCAsheville 0.3906 279 StFrancis 0.3897 280 OhioU 0.3895 281 Dayton 0.3887 282 Bryant 0.3874 283 AlabamaState 0.3837 284 NorthDakotaU 0.3835 285 Lamar 0.3784 286 NorthFlorida 0.3752 287 NichollsState 0.3747 288 SouthernMississippi 0.3737 289 NewMexicoState 0.3719 290 StonyBrook 0.3705 291 EasternIllinois 0.3677 292 Howard 0.3672 293 YoungstownState 0.3671 294 Denver 0.3640 295 UTSA 0.3635 296 SouthDakotaU 0.3632 297 TexasCorpusChristi 0.3607 298 SouthCarolinaState 0.3604 299 Evansville 0.3560 300 Pacific 0.3558 301 Citadel 0.3557 302 Canisius 0.3551 303 UMassLowell 0.3538 304 Chattanooga 0.3485 305 MississippiValley 0.3484 306 ArkansasState 0.3479 307 IncarnateWord 0.3453 308 USCUpstate 0.3440 309 SacramentoState 0.3440 310 IPFW 0.3433 311 JacksonState 0.3413 312 American 0.3390 313 Fairfield 0.3304 314 EasternKentucky 0.3271 315 MountStMary 0.3244 316 Iona 0.3215 317 AlabamaA&M 0.3166 318 VMI 0.3139 319 CalStateBakersfield 0.3129 320 FrancisMarion 0.2963 321 NorthernIllinois 0.2876 322 BowlingGreen 0.2797 323 ArkansasPineBluff 0.2622 324 TexasSouthern 0.2574 325 Presbyterian 0.2503 326 TexasRGV 0.2461 327 StPeters 0.2277 328 SouthernU 0.2243 329 ChicagoState 0.2215 330 Wagner 0.1879 331 Hampton 0.1629 332
I personally agree with your logic, but I can see a strong version of an American value of not wanting to discriminate against the under dogs working in the NCAA's approach. Since, as you say, both approaches for starting points are in and of themselves poor choices (except relatively as you so clearly delineate) why not consider a compromise? Why not divide the starting positions up into thirds (or tenths, or fourths, or what ever would be best) and go from there? This way the under dogs, who may think that they have discovered an unexpected bone stash (maybe three or four foreign soccer playing students who arrived un announced on campus) wouldn't have to feel that they are at a huge disadvantage of counting on their opponents doing well enough to get them to the bubble...or that the perennial power who lost 9 All American starters has an unfair advantage of starting at the very top. Dividing into fourths or thirds to start simply is a way of recognizing that the perennial powers or perennial bottom dwellers are historically extremely unlikely to jump more than 100 places from season to season by arranging it so that the starting point disadvantages and advantages are not seen as overwhelming. If you started with the average score for all last season's teams in the top third (about 110 teams) of, let's say 0.6000 rpi, and then another same score of 0.5000 for the middle 110 teams, and an average score for the bottom 110 teams of 0.4000. (If using fourths, then one might initially assign groups of 83 teams rpi starting numbers like 0.6500, 0.5500, 0.4500, 0.3500). In making such starting assignments, then would 20 games be enough to get things pretty well sorted out by the end of the season if the first 8 to 10 games were not already used up arriving at the rough thirds (or maybe fourths) as I have identified? Using such a system would be the equivalent of relegation between divisions of a soccer league. It might provide even more incentive to make incremental improvements if you were near the top of your division so as to next year give your team the added benefit of a higher starting posistion. Just a thought.....
cpt, I'm not a numbers geek, but the RPI is seriously flawed. I remember last year at the ACC tourney, FSU was ranked #7 I believe. UVA, because of a weak schedule was way down too. The RPI definitely did not project reality. It seemed like simply an SOS rating. Again, not a numbers' geek, but thought I would throw my 2 cents in.
I don't want to defend the RPI, but I think there's an important point to consider in evaluating the RPI: The RPI does not have the purpose of measuring the strength of teams. As hard as that may be to grasp and/or accept, it's true. The RPI has, and only has, the purpose of measuring how teams have performed over the course of the season. Thus if a really strong team has a pathetic schedule, it won't have performed that well over the course of the season since it won't have tested itself. Like it or not, this is fundamental to the NCAA's selection of teams to participate in the NCAA's post-season tournaments. They are selected based on how they have performed over the course of the season, not based on how strong they are. I actually agree with the NCAA on this. The problem I have with the RPI is that there are other systems that are better at measuring how well teams have performed over the course of the season. To name a few: Massey, Jones (now extinct), my Iteration 5 URPI, and my Elo-based system. The NCAA's reason for rejecting systems like Massey, Jones, and my Elo-based system are anti-intellectual and inherently anti-academic -- the NCAA thinks people can't be educated to understand why they are better at measuring how well teams have performed. As for my Iteration 5 URPI, there's no reason the NCAA has articulated so far as to why they would not substitute it for their RPI since it's better at measuring how well teams have performed and doesn't violate any of their other articulated [anti-intellectual and anti-academic] requirements.
There's a really nice illustration of a fundamental RPI problem in the current data and RPI rankings: Cornell (3-0-1) has a current RPI rank of #30. The RPI is not intended to rank teams at this stage of the season, but it's worth looking at Cornell's schedule and its' opponents' schedules so far: Cornell has played Siena, Loyola MD, Cleveland State and Akron. Siena has played Holy Cross, Hartford, Cornell, New Hampshire, and Vermont Loyola MD has played Delaware, Monmouth, Temple (American), Cornell, and St. Francis Cleveland State has played Niagara, Butler (Big East), Chicago State, Ohio, Akron, and St. Bonaventure Akron has played Bryant, Niagara, Cleveland State, St. Bonaventure, and Cornell I put Temple and Butler in bold face as the two (and only two) opponents' opponents from the power leagues. Within the RPI, the effective weight of a team's record is 50%; the effective weight of its opponents' records is 40%; and the effective weight of its opponents' opponents' records is 10%. What this means is that the data that went into determining Cornell's RPI rating, leading to its RPI rank of #30, is derived from a group of teams that is mostly isolated from the power conferences. Thus Cornell's rating and #30 rank reflects where it fits within its "playing group" and not where it fits in relation to teams from the power conferences. Although the isolation of Cornell's playing group may get moderated over the course of the season (or, it may not), there will not be enough games during the season and not enough "out of playing group" games to properly rate Cornell in relation to the power conferences.
Elo ratings, using the cpt system, for games through Sunday, September 13. For this, I'm providing an additional number to what I provided previously. What you're seeing on the list is: Team, End of 2014 Season Rating, Current Rating, Rank. FloridaState 2224 2201 1 VirginiaU 2178 2193 2 NorthCarolinaU 2053 2102 3 TexasA&M 2033 2068 4 Stanford 2092 2053 5 PennState 1992 2031 6 UCLA 2209 2021 7 WestVirginiaU 1933 1980 8 NotreDame 1936 1961 9 FloridaU 1946 1956 10 VirginiaTech 1903 1953 11 BYU 1878 1946 12 CaliforniaU 1853 1915 13 WashingtonU 1816 1891 14 TexasTech 1863 1876 15 KentuckyU 1896 1875 16 WashingtonState 1835 1868 17 Pepperdine 1880 1863 18 Rutgers 1785 1861 19 Clemson 1793 1845 20 SantaClara 1878 1844 21 SouthCarolinaU 1811 1827 22 ArizonaState 1792 1813 23 UCF 1820 1811 24 SouthFlorida 1736 1800 25 IowaU 1844 1790 26 SouthernCalifornia 1791 1787 27 ConnecticutU 1724 1785 28 WisconsinU 1926 1783 29 MichiganU 1814 1783 30 MinnesotaU 1772 1782 31 NebraskaU 1723 1781 32 ArizonaU 1726 1775 33 IllinoisU 1715 1770 34 ColoradoU 1811 1769 35 DePaul 1793 1769 36 CalStateFullerton 1723 1757 37 NorthwesternU 1722 1756 38 Auburn 1719 1744 39 OhioState 1659 1737 40 TennesseeU 1702 1736 41 Duke 1736 1729 42 SanDiegoState 1671 1714 43 BostonCollege 1688 1713 44 TexasU 1711 1704 45 OklahomaState 1734 1703 46 OklahomaU 1650 1678 47 MississippiU 1676 1678 48 MarylandU 1700 1664 49 Georgetown 1690 1657 50 LongBeachState 1576 1656 51 Seattle 1574 1653 52 UtahU 1607 1652 53 Northeastern 1643 1652 54 WakeForest 1686 1647 55 StJohns 1580 1647 56 William&Mary 1515 1645 57 MissouriU 1680 1644 58 Marquette 1695 1639 59 SanDiegoU 1758 1639 60 ArkansasU 1649 1632 61 MichiganState 1607 1631 62 NorthTexas 1562 1625 63 KansasU 1664 1622 64 LaSalle 1620 1615 65 CalPoly 1593 1612 66 LSU 1454 1603 67 PortlandU 1692 1599 68 SanFrancisco 1499 1594 69 BostonU 1686 1591 70 GeorgiaU 1673 1590 71 Hofstra 1585 1587 72 FloridaGulfCoast 1625 1587 73 CalStateNorthridge 1471 1583 74 IndianaU 1631 1583 75 Cincinnati 1496 1577 76 Tulsa 1524 1577 77 TCU 1559 1568 78 MiamiFL 1571 1564 79 LoyolaMarymount 1495 1559 80 Rice 1617 1551 81 Louisville 1587 1548 82 IowaState 1477 1546 83 OregonState 1381 1546 84 WyomingU 1493 1542 85 JamesMadison 1487 1542 86 Providence 1472 1537 87 Memphis 1639 1536 88 Harvard 1593 1534 89 Baylor 1652 1534 90 NewMexicoU 1562 1530 91 PennsylvaniaU 1504 1528 92 Purdue 1456 1525 93 Navy 1558 1524 94 AlabamaU 1631 1522 95 Pittsburgh 1419 1520 96 StMarys 1453 1518 97 MiamiOH 1574 1496 98 WesternMichigan 1433 1494 99 SouthAlabama 1433 1494 100 IllinoisState 1613 1490 101 Colgate 1562 1490 102 Syracuse 1535 1488 103 Furman 1467 1488 104 Drexel 1369 1486 105 Vanderbilt 1500 1485 106 Dayton 1595 1484 107 OregonU 1614 1483 108 Dartmouth 1473 1479 109 Samford 1402 1475 110 Buffalo 1546 1471 111 ColoradoCollege 1643 1471 112 UCRiverside 1478 1469 113 UCIrvine 1520 1468 114 EastCarolina 1530 1464 115 Gonzaga 1550 1458 116 Valparaiso 1517 1456 117 UMKC 1410 1442 118 DelawareU 1364 1439 119 UCSantaBarbara 1379 1438 120 UtahState 1437 1436 121 BallState 1442 1429 122 Butler 1458 1427 123 NorthernArizona 1450 1424 124 EasternMichigan 1470 1422 125 StJosephs 1371 1421 126 Milwaukee 1402 1420 127 Marshall 1308 1416 128 Yale 1378 1414 129 Towson 1356 1412 130 SanJoseState 1405 1411 131 UCDavis 1364 1407 132 UNLV 1398 1405 133 UNCWilmington 1320 1404 134 MontanaU 1429 1403 135 BoiseState 1478 1399 136 FloridaAtlantic 1287 1397 137 SMU 1382 1394 138 HawaiiU 1421 1391 139 Princeton 1443 1390 140 UTEP 1428 1387 141 PortlandState 1425 1383 142 Temple 1343 1383 143 Columbia 1361 1380 144 Bucknell 1356 1380 145 StephenFAustin 1539 1379 146 Creighton 1335 1378 147 Monmouth 1391 1378 148 UtahValley 1346 1376 149 GeorgeWashington 1406 1374 150 HighPoint 1340 1372 151 WesternKentucky 1302 1369 152 Charlotte 1375 1369 153 Liberty 1389 1364 154 SouthDakotaState 1352 1363 155 Troy 1308 1363 156 KentState 1329 1363 157 Cornell 1241 1361 158 MiddleTennessee 1352 1355 159 NCState 1336 1354 160 CentralConnecticut 1294 1351 161 Brown 1303 1346 162 Toledo 1299 1342 163 CentralMichigan 1344 1340 164 FIU 1315 1340 165 EasternWashington 1216 1331 166 VCU 1486 1329 167 Denver 1475 1318 168 Mercer 1431 1317 169 Fordham 1263 1317 170 WrightState 1296 1315 171 GeorgeMason 1225 1310 172 Detroit 1261 1308 173 StLouis 1295 1301 174 Lehigh 1188 1297 175 NorthDakotaState 1224 1296 176 UNCGreensboro 1325 1294 177 Duquesne 1187 1293 178 MissouriState 1197 1292 179 LoyolaChicago 1185 1291 180 NorthernKentucky 1251 1290 181 Elon 1233 1286 182 LouisianaTech 1324 1285 183 WeberState 1169 1278 184 HoustonBaptist 1283 1277 185 AppalachianState 1156 1277 186 RhodeIslandU 1274 1277 187 Lipscomb 1217 1276 188 NorthernColorado 1292 1276 189 FairleighDickinson 1249 1275 190 Richmond 1312 1269 191 AirForce 1301 1266 192 MurrayState 1195 1265 193 MassachusettsU 1277 1263 194 SouthernUtah 1204 1262 195 CoastalCarolina 1224 1256 196 SIUEdwardsville 1286 1256 197 Niagara 1278 1253 198 Rider 1283 1252 199 Oakland 1314 1251 200 NevadaU 1223 1251 201 ColoradoState 1160 1250 202 Evansville 1313 1247 203 SamHoustonState 1228 1246 204 GrandCanyon 1265 1245 205 Villanova 1396 1241 206 Hartford 1230 1240 207 Army 1274 1240 208 OralRoberts 1187 1238 209 TexasState 1194 1238 210 Drake 1230 1230 211 MaineU 1168 1230 212 EastTennesseeState 1275 1229 213 GeorgiaSouthern 1251 1228 214 Xavier 1156 1227 215 StBonaventure 1148 1226 216 SoutheastMissouriState 1273 1226 217 LoyolaMD 1247 1226 218 Akron 1167 1225 219 WesternCarolina 1255 1221 220 FresnoState 1227 1221 221 IdahoState 1313 1217 222 Siena 1147 1216 223 TennesseeMartin 1251 1215 224 CollegeofCharleston 1217 1214 225 GeorgiaState 1107 1212 226 Fairfield 1324 1209 227 SetonHall 1251 1207 228 AbileneChristian 1182 1206 229 JacksonvilleU 1274 1206 230 KennesawState 1270 1205 231 Albany 1159 1196 232 NewHampshireU 1275 1195 233 ClevelandState 1248 1194 234 IdahoU 1155 1189 235 UAB 1199 1187 236 GreenBay 1306 1186 237 UNI 1094 1174 238 MississippiState 1178 1173 239 Campbell 1111 1173 240 OldDominion 1213 1169 241 StonyBrook 1138 1163 242 Morehead 1241 1161 243 BowlingGreen 1100 1158 244 IndianaState 1135 1154 245 Houston 1153 1153 246 IllinoisChicago 1130 1153 247 Lafayette 1079 1152 248 Davidson 1182 1152 249 HolyCross 1236 1151 250 Pacific 1153 1149 251 LouisianaLafayette 1124 1145 252 IUPUI 1185 1142 253 NorthernIllinois 1236 1140 254 Belmont 1145 1138 255 SacredHeart 1112 1134 256 OhioU 1186 1134 257 SacramentoState 1232 1133 258 UNOmaha 1069 1129 259 Stetson 1063 1128 260 UTSA 1178 1127 261 UMBC 1307 1116 262 SELouisiana 1099 1111 263 Manhattan 1064 1107 264 JacksonvilleState 1147 1102 265 Quinnipiac 960 1099 266 Longwood 1110 1093 267 Winthrop 1118 1092 268 YoungstownState 1145 1091 269 Hampton 1345 1087 270 TexasPanAmerican 1087 1087 271 Radford 1066 1076 272 UALR 1013 1074 273 SouthDakotaU 1093 1063 274 Binghamton 1142 1059 275 StFrancis 1130 1053 276 Wofford 1102 1049 277 GardnerWebb 1007 1034 278 Bryant 1049 1032 279 Lamar 1016 1028 280 McNeeseState 991 1026 281 VermontU 1019 1023 282 WesternIllinois 1138 1019 283 Canisius 1031 1015 284 RobertMorris 1013 1013 285 NewMexicoState 1023 1007 286 SouthernMississippi 1028 1003 287 CalStateBakersfield 1010 993 288 AustinPeay 967 993 289 NichollsState 1049 990 290 LongIsland 1013 989 291 NorthFlorida 1077 989 292 Wagner 1216 989 293 NorthwesternState 985 981 294 Marist 1008 976 295 Howard 857 965 296 American 989 964 297 CharlestonSouthern 861 961 298 UNCAsheville 974 959 299 TennesseeTech 818 949 300 NorthDakotaU 842 943 301 UMassLowell 999 941 302 Presbyterian 903 933 303 IncarnateWord 989 927 304 Iona 1023 918 305 TexasCorpusChristi 958 917 306 EasternIllinois 911 914 307 CentralArkansas 903 913 308 IPFW 994 900 309 LouisianaMonroe 890 885 310 MountStMary 865 869 311 ArkansasState 935 868 312 EasternKentucky 922 862 313 DelawareState 756 862 314 NJIT 840 852 315 Citadel 964 841 316 ChicagoState 887 826 317 PrairieViewA&M 716 787 318 USCUpstate 813 777 319 VMI 674 766 320 FrancisMarion 775 724 321 AlabamaState 703 698 322 StPeters 642 672 323 SouthCarolinaState 641 671 324 Chattanooga 642 666 325 JacksonState 656 659 326 MississippiValley 523 565 327 TexasSouthern 495 490 328 AlabamaA&M 469 441 329 SouthernU 436 412 330 Grambling 237 236 331 ArkansasPineBluff 228 225 332 AlcornState 135 134 333
I think I see how this Elo works. Refactoring that Excel formula, I merge the 5 identical duplicates of the exponent term into the following sequence of 4 equations + table look-up: 1. drh = r1 - r2 +/- 58: ratings delta with home-field adjustment 2. dxs = 10^-(drh/400): exponent with scaling factor 3. dab = 1/(1+dxs): the magic that makes it symmetric, i.e. 1.0-sum The proof of #3 is simple algebra, and quite funny. drh is clearly zero-sum: if I see +x for me, then you see -x for you. dxs is 1-product: if I see 10^x for me, then you see 10^(-x) = 1/10^x for you. Hence, dab is 1-sum: if I see my dab as 1/(1+a), then you see your dab as 1/(1+[1/a]) = a/(a+1), and those two dabs add up to 1. 4. inc = 70 * (res - dab) where res = 1.00 win 0.75 win OT 0.50 draw 0.25 loss OT 0.00 loss And both teams add their `inc` to their previous Elo. You lose points if your result was less than what your dab expected. Ergo, the quantitative meaning of K factor = 70 is that each match shall wager 70 rating points maximum, but scaled by the result. win or loss in regulation wagers 70.0 total, with asymmetric risk per the ratings delta. The low team might win lots rarely, or the high team might win a pittance often, but those two extremes always sum to 70.0. win or loss in OT wagers 35.0 total. draw is purely zero-sum, with the purse scaled by the ratings delta. Corollary: If two teams with identical ratings play at a neutral site, then a win/loss is worth 35.0, wot/lot is 17.5, and a draw is 0.0 Hence, a team that is far from its true rating can gain/lose only at most 68 ppg or so, and may take several weeks to reach equilibrium. I doodled my 4-stage formulae in Excel 2015. Consider the "PNW Dining Philosophers Tourney" of UW/WSU vs. Portland/Gonzaga. Using their 09/14 Elo ratings, with home teams first or '@', and the results tabulated for the home team: Code: 09/17 Thu drh dab win wot tie lot los 1868 WSU-Gonzaga 1458: +468 0.937 +4.43 -13.07 -30.57 -48.07 -65.57 1891 UW @Gonzaga 1458: +375 0.896 +7.25 -10.25 -27.75 -45.25 -62.75 09/20 Sun 1599 Portland-WSU 1868: -211 0.229 +53.98 +36.48 +18.98 +1.48 -16.02 1891 UW-Portland 1599: +350 0.882 +8.24 -9.26 -26.76 -44.26 -61.76 Points are zero-sum(!!), so the visiting team simply gets the negative of whatever the home team got (which is surely a tenet of Elo). We see that the 116-pt swing for home vs. away is worth a few points. UW gets more benefit and less risk from their Gonzaga match because they're on the road, which narrows the gap.
Since a lot of people watch the ACC pretty closely, I thought it would be interesting and illustrative to show how last night's ACC games (Thursday, September 24) affected the ACC teams' Elo ratings. The following shows the teams in the order of their current Elo (cpt version, but without special treatment for overtime wins/losses). The order of the numbers is (1) the team's provisional rating going into the season (rating at end of regular season last year), (2) the team's rating before last night's game, and (3) the teams' rating after last night's game: FloridaState 2224 2172 2181 VirginiaU 2178 2197 2137 NorthCarolinaU 2053 2130 2131 NotreDame 1936 1934 1995 VirginiaTech 1903 1928 1931 Clemson 1793 1889 1881 Duke 1736 1776 1774 BostonCollege 1688 1701 1702 WakeForest 1686 1624 1586 Pittsburgh 1419 1536 1574 Louisville 1587 1530 1559 Syracuse 1535 1502 1501 MiamiFL 1571 1529 1500 NCState 1336 1316 1313 If you go to the first post on this thread, the bottom of the post, you'll see a table that shows the expected win percentage of the higher rated team in a game, by rating difference adjusted for home field advantage. Home field advantage is worth 58 points. Using the Virginia/Notre Dame game as an example: Virginia's rating going into the game was 2197 Notre Dame's rating going into the game was 1934 For a difference of 263 Virginia had home field advantage worth 58 points Thus the game-site adjusted difference is 263 + 58 = 321 With a difference of 321, the expected result is Virginia win 83%, Notre Dame win 9%, tie 8%. Given that the ratings going into the game had Virginia highly favored, a pretty large adjustment for each team is in order based on Notre Dame winning the game. So, Virginia is downgraded by 60 points and Notre Dame is upgraded by 60 points. On the other hand, if you look at the Florida State/Clemson adjustments, they're small given that the result was as expected.
Here are Elo ratings (cpt version, but without special treatment of overtime games) for games through Sunday, September 27. What you're seeing is team/starting seed rating (end of 2014 season rating)/current rating/current rank. FloridaState 2224 2203 1 VirginiaU 2178 2142 2 NorthCarolinaU 2053 2135 3 UCLA 2209 2054 4 Stanford 2092 2030 5 WestVirginiaU 1933 1995 6 PennState 1992 1985 7 NotreDame 1936 1972 8 TexasA&M 2033 1959 9 BYU 1878 1951 10 VirginiaTech 1903 1935 11 FloridaU 1946 1932 12 SantaClara 1878 1922 13 SouthCarolinaU 1811 1918 14 TexasTech 1863 1900 15 MinnesotaU 1772 1892 16 Clemson 1793 1890 17 WashingtonState 1835 1876 18 CaliforniaU 1853 1864 19 Auburn 1719 1860 20 KentuckyU 1896 1843 21 Pepperdine 1880 1840 22 WashingtonU 1816 1833 23 NorthwesternU 1722 1829 24 SouthFlorida 1736 1827 25 ArizonaU 1726 1827 26 WisconsinU 1926 1819 27 ConnecticutU 1724 1817 28 ColoradoU 1811 1813 29 SouthernCalifornia 1791 1811 30 NebraskaU 1723 1805 31 Rutgers 1785 1801 32 UCF 1820 1797 33 MichiganU 1814 1792 34 CalStateFullerton 1723 1790 35 Duke 1736 1768 36 IllinoisU 1715 1767 37 MississippiU 1676 1748 38 MichiganState 1607 1735 39 OhioState 1659 1729 40 OklahomaU 1650 1724 41 BostonCollege 1688 1711 42 ArizonaState 1792 1702 43 DePaul 1793 1696 44 CalPoly 1593 1693 45 Georgetown 1690 1692 46 IowaU 1844 1676 47 StJohns 1580 1672 48 LongBeachState 1576 1671 49 MissouriU 1680 1670 50 TexasU 1711 1667 51 KansasU 1664 1664 52 OklahomaState 1734 1661 53 TennesseeU 1702 1658 54 TCU 1559 1655 55 Hofstra 1585 1653 56 SanDiegoState 1671 1648 57 PortlandU 1692 1647 58 Seattle 1574 1617 59 NorthTexas 1562 1616 60 Pittsburgh 1419 1613 61 LSU 1454 1612 62 Baylor 1652 1605 63 SanDiegoU 1758 1601 64 BostonU 1686 1600 65 IndianaU 1631 1596 66 MarylandU 1700 1593 67 Marquette 1695 1593 68 LoyolaMarymount 1495 1592 69 William&Mary 1515 1590 70 UtahU 1607 1590 71 NewMexicoU 1562 1587 72 WakeForest 1686 1582 73 GeorgiaU 1673 1581 74 OregonState 1381 1578 75 Northeastern 1643 1574 76 SanFrancisco 1499 1572 77 MiamiOH 1574 1568 78 Memphis 1639 1566 79 ArkansasU 1649 1559 80 Tulsa 1524 1557 81 Cincinnati 1496 1548 82 CalStateNorthridge 1471 1544 83 JamesMadison 1487 1541 84 Rice 1617 1540 85 Providence 1472 1539 86 SouthAlabama 1433 1537 87 FloridaGulfCoast 1625 1534 88 Dartmouth 1473 1533 89 Purdue 1456 1531 90 Harvard 1593 1528 91 Louisville 1587 1520 92 UNCWilmington 1320 1517 93 LaSalle 1620 1517 94 AlabamaU 1631 1513 95 Marshall 1308 1511 96 Princeton 1443 1510 97 Vanderbilt 1500 1510 98 WesternMichigan 1433 1506 99 Samford 1402 1503 100 Dayton 1595 1499 101 Syracuse 1535 1497 102 IowaState 1477 1491 103 MiamiFL 1571 1491 104 UCRiverside 1478 1486 105 BallState 1442 1486 106 Navy 1558 1481 107 OregonU 1614 1478 108 UCDavis 1364 1477 109 Colgate 1562 1476 110 ColoradoCollege 1643 1476 111 PennsylvaniaU 1504 1472 112 UCIrvine 1520 1468 113 BoiseState 1478 1468 114 IllinoisState 1613 1458 115 Butler 1458 1454 116 WyomingU 1493 1453 117 UCSantaBarbara 1379 1452 118 Gonzaga 1550 1449 119 Valparaiso 1517 1448 120 Buffalo 1546 1448 121 Milwaukee 1402 1440 122 SanJoseState 1405 1440 123 EastCarolina 1530 1437 124 Temple 1343 1436 125 GeorgeWashington 1406 1432 126 FIU 1315 1431 127 UMKC 1410 1431 128 UtahState 1437 1431 129 EasternWashington 1216 1426 130 Cornell 1241 1424 131 Furman 1467 1423 132 WesternKentucky 1302 1423 133 StMarys 1453 1422 134 SMU 1382 1421 135 UtahValley 1346 1417 136 StJosephs 1371 1413 137 NorthernArizona 1450 1410 138 Creighton 1335 1410 139 Towson 1356 1399 140 UTEP 1428 1392 141 DelawareU 1364 1392 142 Drexel 1369 1389 143 SouthDakotaState 1352 1384 144 StephenFAustin 1539 1381 145 EasternMichigan 1470 1376 146 Monmouth 1391 1374 147 CentralConnecticut 1294 1373 148 StLouis 1295 1370 149 Liberty 1389 1369 150 LoyolaChicago 1185 1369 151 UNLV 1398 1367 152 KentState 1329 1363 153 Troy 1308 1359 154 Yale 1378 1357 155 MassachusettsU 1277 1353 156 Fordham 1263 1353 157 FairleighDickinson 1249 1353 158 Elon 1233 1350 159 MiddleTennessee 1352 1345 160 Bucknell 1356 1340 161 CollegeofCharleston 1217 1337 162 Mercer 1431 1335 163 CoastalCarolina 1224 1334 164 Brown 1303 1334 165 Charlotte 1375 1332 166 PortlandState 1425 1327 167 VCU 1486 1325 168 HawaiiU 1421 1324 169 HighPoint 1340 1323 170 Lipscomb 1217 1316 171 Duquesne 1187 1315 172 CentralMichigan 1344 1313 173 NorthernColorado 1292 1313 174 HoustonBaptist 1283 1312 175 Toledo 1299 1307 176 NCState 1336 1304 177 Columbia 1361 1300 178 IdahoU 1155 1299 179 WrightState 1296 1299 180 MissouriState 1197 1297 181 MississippiState 1178 1297 182 Niagara 1278 1296 183 NorthDakotaState 1224 1293 184 Lehigh 1188 1291 185 NorthernKentucky 1251 1291 186 Oakland 1314 1288 187 TexasState 1194 1279 188 GeorgeMason 1225 1278 189 EastTennesseeState 1275 1278 190 Army 1274 1272 191 MontanaU 1429 1271 192 Villanova 1396 1269 193 LoyolaMD 1247 1266 194 OldDominion 1213 1264 195 AppalachianState 1156 1262 196 FloridaAtlantic 1287 1261 197 Denver 1475 1260 198 TennesseeMartin 1251 1259 199 Drake 1230 1259 200 UNCGreensboro 1325 1256 201 NevadaU 1223 1256 202 MaineU 1168 1250 203 Hartford 1230 1245 204 Campbell 1111 1244 205 AirForce 1301 1243 206 Detroit 1261 1243 207 SIUEdwardsville 1286 1241 208 GeorgiaState 1107 1239 209 SoutheastMissouriState 1273 1238 210 SamHoustonState 1228 1235 211 WesternCarolina 1255 1234 212 ClevelandState 1248 1232 213 ColoradoState 1160 1230 214 IUPUI 1185 1224 215 Albany 1159 1222 216 OralRoberts 1187 1221 217 FresnoState 1227 1218 218 Evansville 1313 1216 219 MurrayState 1195 1214 220 Xavier 1156 1211 221 Davidson 1182 1210 222 SetonHall 1251 1209 223 LouisianaTech 1324 1209 224 Rider 1283 1208 225 WeberState 1169 1208 226 Richmond 1312 1207 227 SacramentoState 1232 1206 228 OhioU 1186 1206 229 JacksonvilleU 1274 1206 230 SouthernUtah 1204 1203 231 SELouisiana 1099 1189 232 LouisianaLafayette 1124 1189 233 Fairfield 1324 1187 234 Siena 1147 1183 235 NewHampshireU 1275 1182 236 Akron 1167 1182 237 StBonaventure 1148 1181 238 RhodeIslandU 1274 1173 239 Longwood 1110 1168 240 Manhattan 1064 1168 241 Stetson 1063 1168 242 GrandCanyon 1265 1167 243 AbileneChristian 1182 1165 244 Houston 1153 1164 245 UTSA 1178 1159 246 IdahoState 1313 1149 247 GeorgiaSouthern 1251 1147 248 Morehead 1241 1144 249 StonyBrook 1138 1136 250 Pacific 1153 1136 251 HolyCross 1236 1135 252 IndianaState 1135 1127 253 Lafayette 1079 1124 254 KennesawState 1270 1116 255 VermontU 1019 1115 256 IllinoisChicago 1130 1114 257 UMBC 1307 1112 258 SacredHeart 1112 1110 259 GreenBay 1306 1108 260 BowlingGreen 1100 1108 261 UALR 1013 1105 262 UNI 1094 1102 263 NorthernIllinois 1236 1102 264 YoungstownState 1145 1100 265 TexasPanAmerican 1087 1087 266 JacksonvilleState 1147 1081 267 Winthrop 1118 1079 268 UNOmaha 1069 1075 269 SouthDakotaU 1093 1073 270 Quinnipiac 960 1064 271 UAB 1199 1052 272 CalStateBakersfield 1010 1048 273 Marist 1008 1046 274 StFrancis 1130 1042 275 TennesseeTech 818 1041 276 Lamar 1016 1034 277 NorthFlorida 1077 1033 278 UNCAsheville 974 1026 279 American 989 1023 280 Binghamton 1142 1022 281 WesternIllinois 1138 1018 282 Belmont 1145 1011 283 RobertMorris 1013 1010 284 Wofford 1102 1003 285 AustinPeay 967 1002 286 McNeeseState 991 998 287 CentralArkansas 903 996 288 Radford 1066 993 289 Canisius 1031 989 290 NorthDakotaU 842 985 291 UMassLowell 999 983 292 IPFW 994 981 293 NewMexicoState 1023 979 294 GardnerWebb 1007 979 295 Hampton 1345 976 296 LongIsland 1013 974 297 IncarnateWord 989 973 298 Presbyterian 903 973 299 Bryant 1049 967 300 Wagner 1216 966 301 SouthernMississippi 1028 952 302 Howard 857 933 303 CharlestonSouthern 861 933 304 TexasCorpusChristi 958 931 305 LouisianaMonroe 890 922 306 NorthwesternState 985 918 307 EasternIllinois 911 904 308 NichollsState 1049 903 309 Iona 1023 900 310 EasternKentucky 922 896 311 PrairieViewA&M 716 839 312 ArkansasState 935 827 313 Citadel 964 825 314 VMI 674 820 315 USCUpstate 813 812 316 MountStMary 865 808 317 DelawareState 756 807 318 NJIT 840 803 319 ChicagoState 887 791 320 FrancisMarion 775 756 321 AlabamaState 703 747 322 Chattanooga 642 744 323 StPeters 642 702 324 JacksonState 656 647 325 SouthCarolinaState 641 627 326 MississippiValley 523 603 327 TexasSouthern 495 502 328 AlabamaA&M 469 434 329 SouthernU 436 394 330 ArkansasPineBluff 228 281 331 Grambling 237 227 332 AlcornState 135 121 333
Here are Elo (cpt version) ratings for games through Sunday, October 4. What you're seeing are team/region/conference/initial "seeded" rating/current rating/rank: FloridaState Southeast ACC 2224 2205 1 VirginiaU Southeast ACC 2178 2142 2 NorthCarolinaU Southeast ACC 2053 2139 3 Stanford West PacTwelve 2092 2065 4 PennState Middle BigTen 1992 2010 5 WestVirginiaU Southeast BigTwelve 1933 2001 6 BYU West WestCoast 1878 1967 7 TexasA&M Southeast SEC 2033 1960 8 VirginiaTech Southeast ACC 1903 1959 9 UCLA West PacTwelve 2209 1957 10 FloridaU Southeast SEC 1946 1918 11 WashingtonU West PacTwelve 1816 1910 12 NotreDame Southeast ACC 1936 1908 13 Clemson Southeast ACC 1793 1898 14 SouthCarolinaU Southeast SEC 1811 1894 15 TexasTech Southeast BigTwelve 1863 1883 16 WashingtonState West PacTwelve 1835 1876 17 Auburn Southeast SEC 1719 1871 18 SantaClara West WestCoast 1878 1858 19 CaliforniaU West PacTwelve 1853 1858 20 KentuckyU Southeast SEC 1896 1857 21 MinnesotaU Middle BigTen 1772 1856 22 WisconsinU Middle BigTen 1926 1856 23 ArizonaU West PacTwelve 1726 1836 24 SouthernCalifornia West PacTwelve 1791 1831 25 ConnecticutU Southeast American 1724 1822 26 MichiganU Middle BigTen 1814 1820 27 Rutgers Middle BigTen 1785 1818 28 NorthwesternU Middle BigTen 1722 1804 29 SouthFlorida Southeast American 1736 1788 30 Pepperdine West WestCoast 1880 1775 31 IllinoisU Middle BigTen 1715 1758 32 NebraskaU Middle BigTen 1723 1751 33 CalStateFullerton West BigWest 1723 1749 34 OklahomaU Southeast BigTwelve 1650 1747 35 Duke Southeast ACC 1736 1744 36 OhioState Middle BigTen 1659 1739 37 DePaul Northeast BigEast 1793 1715 38 MichiganState Middle BigTen 1607 1712 39 LongBeachState West BigWest 1576 1712 40 MississippiU Southeast SEC 1676 1711 41 TexasU Southeast BigTwelve 1711 1710 42 StJohns Northeast BigEast 1580 1708 43 BostonCollege Southeast ACC 1688 1707 44 MissouriU Southeast SEC 1680 1707 45 ColoradoU West PacTwelve 1811 1705 46 Georgetown Northeast BigEast 1690 1700 47 UCF Southeast American 1820 1694 48 TennesseeU Southeast SEC 1702 1680 49 OklahomaState Southeast BigTwelve 1734 1675 50 IowaU Middle BigTen 1844 1674 51 ArizonaState West PacTwelve 1792 1663 52 SanDiegoState West MountainWest 1671 1661 53 UtahU West PacTwelve 1607 1661 54 CalPoly West BigWest 1593 1654 55 KansasU Southeast BigTwelve 1664 1649 56 TCU Southeast BigTwelve 1559 1649 57 Cincinnati Southeast American 1496 1645 58 SanFrancisco West WestCoast 1499 1636 59 BostonU Northeast Patriot 1686 1635 60 Baylor Southeast BigTwelve 1652 1635 61 NorthTexas Southeast ConferenceUSA 1562 1634 62 Northeastern Northeast Colonial 1643 1613 63 Pittsburgh Southeast ACC 1419 1612 64 LoyolaMarymount West WestCoast 1495 1610 65 Hofstra Northeast Colonial 1585 1609 66 Seattle West WAC 1574 1602 67 IndianaU Middle BigTen 1631 1598 68 SanDiegoU West WestCoast 1758 1598 69 LSU Southeast SEC 1454 1596 70 JamesMadison Northeast Colonial 1487 1593 71 PortlandU West WestCoast 1692 1591 72 William&Mary Northeast Colonial 1515 1590 73 OregonState West PacTwelve 1381 1588 74 Memphis Southeast American 1639 1586 75 Purdue Middle BigTen 1456 1586 76 ArkansasU Southeast SEC 1649 1583 77 Tulsa Southeast American 1524 1579 78 MarylandU Middle BigTen 1700 1572 79 Louisville Southeast ACC 1587 1563 80 GeorgiaU Southeast SEC 1673 1559 81 MiamiFL Southeast ACC 1571 1555 82 Princeton Northeast Ivy 1443 1554 83 FloridaGulfCoast Southeast AtlanticSun 1625 1552 84 Harvard Northeast Ivy 1593 1552 85 SouthAlabama Southwest SunBelt 1433 1550 86 CalStateNorthridge West BigWest 1471 1548 87 UNCWilmington Northeast Colonial 1320 1542 88 Dayton Northeast AtlanticTen 1595 1539 89 BallState Middle MidAmerican 1442 1535 90 NewMexicoU West MountainWest 1562 1535 91 MiamiOH Middle MidAmerican 1574 1534 92 WakeForest Southeast ACC 1686 1533 93 Samford Southeast Southern 1402 1529 94 Vanderbilt Southeast SEC 1500 1525 95 UCDavis West BigWest 1364 1523 96 Marquette Northeast BigEast 1695 1517 97 Marshall Southeast ConferenceUSA 1308 1514 98 ColoradoCollege West MountainWest 1643 1514 99 OregonU West PacTwelve 1614 1504 100 AlabamaU Southeast SEC 1631 1502 101 Dartmouth Northeast Ivy 1473 1500 102 Providence Northeast BigEast 1472 1500 103 UCIrvine West BigWest 1520 1499 104 Rice Southeast ConferenceUSA 1617 1497 105 UtahState West MountainWest 1437 1494 106 Gonzaga West WestCoast 1550 1493 107 Butler Northeast BigEast 1458 1485 108 WesternMichigan Middle MidAmerican 1433 1481 109 EastCarolina Southeast American 1530 1481 110 LaSalle Northeast AtlanticTen 1620 1480 111 UCSantaBarbara West BigWest 1379 1480 112 StMarys West WestCoast 1453 1473 113 Navy Northeast Patriot 1558 1473 114 GeorgeWashington Northeast AtlanticTen 1406 1473 115 PennsylvaniaU Northeast Ivy 1504 1461 116 IllinoisState Middle MissouriValley 1613 1461 117 UtahValley West WAC 1346 1461 118 Syracuse Southeast ACC 1535 1459 119 UCRiverside West BigWest 1478 1455 120 EasternWashington West BigSky 1216 1455 121 Milwaukee Middle Horizon 1402 1453 122 WyomingU West MountainWest 1493 1446 123 WesternKentucky Southwest ConferenceUSA 1302 1441 124 IowaState Southeast BigTwelve 1477 1437 125 Cornell Northeast Ivy 1241 1434 126 Temple Northeast American 1343 1431 127 SanJoseState West MountainWest 1405 1429 128 Buffalo Middle MidAmerican 1546 1423 129 UNLV West MountainWest 1398 1418 130 KentState Middle MidAmerican 1329 1413 131 Creighton Northeast BigEast 1335 1413 132 Fordham Northeast AtlanticTen 1263 1410 133 Valparaiso Middle Horizon 1517 1408 134 Colgate Northeast Patriot 1562 1406 135 UMKC West WAC 1410 1405 136 NorthernArizona West BigSky 1450 1404 137 Furman Southeast Southern 1467 1404 138 StephenFAustin Southwest Southland 1539 1400 139 Monmouth Northeast MetroAtlantic 1391 1400 140 FIU Southeast ConferenceUSA 1315 1400 141 Liberty Southeast BigSouth 1389 1399 142 UTEP Southeast ConferenceUSA 1428 1397 143 Drexel Northeast Colonial 1369 1393 144 SouthDakotaState Middle Summit 1352 1391 145 Troy Southwest SunBelt 1308 1389 146 SMU Southeast American 1382 1388 147 VCU Northeast AtlanticTen 1486 1387 148 BoiseState West MountainWest 1478 1384 149 MassachusettsU Northeast AtlanticTen 1277 1380 150 CentralConnecticut Northeast Northeast 1294 1378 151 Towson Northeast Colonial 1356 1374 152 LoyolaChicago Middle MissouriValley 1185 1372 153 FairleighDickinson Northeast Northeast 1249 1370 154 MiddleTennessee Southeast ConferenceUSA 1352 1367 155 Bucknell Northeast Patriot 1356 1367 156 StLouis Middle AtlanticTen 1295 1365 157 DelawareU Northeast Colonial 1364 1360 158 EasternMichigan Middle MidAmerican 1470 1355 159 Elon Northeast Colonial 1233 1350 160 IdahoU West BigSky 1155 1348 161 NorthernColorado West BigSky 1292 1348 162 HighPoint Southeast BigSouth 1340 1344 163 StJosephs Northeast AtlanticTen 1371 1343 164 CoastalCarolina Southeast BigSouth 1224 1340 165 CentralMichigan Middle MidAmerican 1344 1339 166 HoustonBaptist Southwest Southland 1283 1335 167 Yale Northeast Ivy 1378 1333 168 Columbia Northeast Ivy 1361 1330 169 Niagara Northeast MetroAtlantic 1278 1330 170 NorthDakotaState Middle Summit 1224 1328 171 Oakland Middle Horizon 1314 1324 172 WrightState Middle Horizon 1296 1321 173 Lipscomb Southeast AtlanticSun 1217 1319 174 CollegeofCharleston Northeast Colonial 1217 1317 175 FloridaAtlantic Southeast ConferenceUSA 1287 1317 176 Mercer Southeast Southern 1431 1313 177 NCState Southeast ACC 1336 1304 178 EastTennesseeState Southeast Southern 1275 1303 179 MontanaU West BigSky 1429 1299 180 GeorgeMason Northeast AtlanticTen 1225 1298 181 MississippiState Southeast SEC 1178 1296 182 AppalachianState Southwest SunBelt 1156 1293 183 HawaiiU West BigWest 1421 1285 184 Hartford Northeast AmericaEast 1230 1282 185 NorthernKentucky Southeast AtlanticSun 1251 1278 186 PortlandState West BigSky 1425 1278 187 Drake Middle MissouriValley 1230 1276 188 UNCGreensboro Southeast Southern 1325 1276 189 ClevelandState Middle Horizon 1248 1276 190 Brown Northeast Ivy 1303 1275 191 MissouriState Middle MissouriValley 1197 1273 192 SamHoustonState Southwest Southland 1228 1272 193 MurrayState Middle OhioValley 1195 1271 194 LoyolaMD Northeast Patriot 1247 1270 195 SetonHall Northeast BigEast 1251 1266 196 Richmond Northeast AtlanticTen 1312 1266 197 Toledo Middle MidAmerican 1299 1265 198 OldDominion Southeast ConferenceUSA 1213 1264 199 Army Northeast Patriot 1274 1263 200 AirForce West MountainWest 1301 1252 201 FresnoState West MountainWest 1227 1249 202 Charlotte Southeast ConferenceUSA 1375 1249 203 MaineU Northeast AmericaEast 1168 1249 204 TexasState Southwest SunBelt 1194 1248 205 NewHampshireU Northeast AmericaEast 1275 1247 206 LouisianaTech Southeast ConferenceUSA 1324 1246 207 NevadaU West MountainWest 1223 1244 208 Villanova Northeast BigEast 1396 1244 209 Lehigh Northeast Patriot 1188 1243 210 Duquesne Northeast AtlanticTen 1187 1242 211 Campbell Southeast BigSouth 1111 1235 212 JacksonvilleU Southeast AtlanticSun 1274 1228 213 OralRoberts Middle Summit 1187 1219 214 Rider Northeast MetroAtlantic 1283 1218 215 Detroit Middle Horizon 1261 1211 216 Denver Middle Summit 1475 1210 217 WesternCarolina Southeast Southern 1255 1209 218 WeberState West BigSky 1169 1207 219 OhioU Middle MidAmerican 1186 1207 220 Fairfield Northeast MetroAtlantic 1324 1205 221 Albany Northeast AmericaEast 1159 1204 222 SIUEdwardsville Middle OhioValley 1286 1203 223 BowlingGreen Middle MidAmerican 1100 1203 224 IUPUI Middle Summit 1185 1202 225 HolyCross Northeast Patriot 1236 1200 226 Xavier Northeast BigEast 1156 1199 227 AbileneChristian Southwest Southland 1182 1192 228 ColoradoState West MountainWest 1160 1190 229 SouthernUtah West BigSky 1204 1180 230 TennesseeMartin Middle OhioValley 1251 1179 231 SacramentoState West BigSky 1232 1177 232 Evansville Middle MissouriValley 1313 1176 233 Manhattan Northeast MetroAtlantic 1064 1176 234 Davidson Northeast AtlanticTen 1182 1172 235 GeorgiaState Southwest SunBelt 1107 1172 236 Longwood Southeast BigSouth 1110 1165 237 GeorgiaSouthern Southwest SunBelt 1251 1163 238 SoutheastMissouriState Middle OhioValley 1273 1163 239 LouisianaLafayette Southwest SunBelt 1124 1155 240 Houston Southeast American 1153 1155 241 Morehead Middle OhioValley 1241 1148 242 GrandCanyon West WAC 1265 1147 243 Siena Northeast MetroAtlantic 1147 1144 244 UALR Southwest SunBelt 1013 1144 245 UNI Middle MissouriValley 1094 1143 246 StBonaventure Northeast AtlanticTen 1148 1137 247 IndianaState Middle MissouriValley 1135 1137 248 RhodeIslandU Northeast AtlanticTen 1274 1136 249 UTSA Southeast ConferenceUSA 1178 1133 250 Akron Middle MidAmerican 1167 1132 251 Pacific West WestCoast 1153 1132 252 Stetson Southeast AtlanticSun 1063 1128 253 VermontU Northeast AmericaEast 1019 1127 254 KennesawState Southeast AtlanticSun 1270 1123 255 CalStateBakersfield West WAC 1010 1123 256 JacksonvilleState Middle OhioValley 1147 1118 257 StonyBrook Northeast AmericaEast 1138 1117 258 SELouisiana Southwest Southland 1099 1116 259 AustinPeay Middle OhioValley 967 1099 260 Lafayette Northeast Patriot 1079 1097 261 UMBC Northeast AmericaEast 1307 1097 262 SouthDakotaU Middle Summit 1093 1096 263 StFrancis Northeast Northeast 1130 1094 264 IdahoState West BigSky 1313 1088 265 TexasPanAmerican West WAC 1087 1087 266 IllinoisChicago Middle Horizon 1130 1085 267 YoungstownState Middle Horizon 1145 1077 268 NorthFlorida Southeast AtlanticSun 1077 1076 269 GreenBay Middle Horizon 1306 1075 270 NorthernIllinois Middle MidAmerican 1236 1075 271 Winthrop Southeast BigSouth 1118 1072 272 RobertMorris Northeast Northeast 1013 1065 273 Bryant Northeast Northeast 1049 1059 274 TennesseeTech Middle OhioValley 818 1058 275 UNOmaha Middle Summit 1069 1056 276 SacredHeart Northeast Northeast 1112 1055 277 American Northeast Patriot 989 1055 278 IPFW Middle Summit 994 1047 279 UNCAsheville Southeast BigSouth 974 1038 280 UAB Southeast ConferenceUSA 1199 1026 281 Marist Northeast MetroAtlantic 1008 1024 282 CentralArkansas Southwest Southland 903 1017 283 Wofford Southeast Southern 1102 1017 284 Belmont Middle OhioValley 1145 1015 285 Quinnipiac Northeast MetroAtlantic 960 1012 286 NorthDakotaU West BigSky 842 1011 287 Lamar Southwest Southland 1016 1004 288 SouthernMississippi Southeast ConferenceUSA 1028 1001 289 Canisius Northeast MetroAtlantic 1031 999 290 NewMexicoState West WAC 1023 998 291 Binghamton Northeast AmericaEast 1142 992 292 UMassLowell Northeast AmericaEast 999 979 293 Hampton Northeast Independent 1345 976 294 McNeeseState Southwest Southland 991 971 295 CharlestonSouthern Southeast BigSouth 861 968 296 GardnerWebb Southeast BigSouth 1007 962 297 LongIsland Northeast Northeast 1013 957 298 Radford Southeast BigSouth 1066 949 299 Presbyterian Southeast BigSouth 903 948 300 WesternIllinois Middle Summit 1138 946 301 Wagner Northeast Northeast 1216 944 302 TexasCorpusChristi Southwest Southland 958 942 303 NichollsState Southwest Southland 1049 942 304 IncarnateWord Southwest Southland 989 926 305 NorthwesternState Southwest Southland 985 916 306 LouisianaMonroe Southwest SunBelt 890 912 307 EasternIllinois Middle OhioValley 911 902 308 Iona Northeast MetroAtlantic 1023 887 309 Howard Southwest Southwestern 857 874 310 EasternKentucky Middle OhioValley 922 870 311 ArkansasState Southwest SunBelt 935 839 312 Citadel Southeast Southern 964 823 313 USCUpstate Southeast AtlanticSun 813 809 314 DelawareState Northeast Independent 756 807 315 VMI Southeast Southern 674 806 316 MountStMary Northeast Northeast 865 790 317 ChicagoState West WAC 887 788 318 PrairieViewA&M Southwest Southwestern 716 781 319 NJIT Northeast Independent 840 772 320 FrancisMarion Southeast Independent 775 756 321 Chattanooga Southeast Southern 642 742 322 JacksonState Southwest Southwestern 656 709 323 AlabamaState Southwest Southwestern 703 690 324 MississippiValley Southwest Southwestern 523 687 325 StPeters Northeast MetroAtlantic 642 686 326 SouthCarolinaState Southeast Independent 641 625 327 TexasSouthern Southwest Southwestern 495 482 328 SouthernU Southwest Southwestern 436 392 329 AlabamaA&M Southwest Southwestern 469 390 330 ArkansasPineBluff Southwest Southwestern 228 387 331 Grambling Southwest Southwestern 237 223 332 AlcornState Southwest Southwestern 135 115 333
Here are Elo (cpt version) ratings for games through Sunday, October 4. What you're seeing are team initial "seeded" rating/current rating/rank: FloridaState 2224 2223 1 VirginiaU 2178 2163 2 Stanford 2092 2070 3 NorthCarolinaU 2053 2055 4 PennState 1992 2018 5 WestVirginiaU 1933 2015 6 BYU 1878 1972 7 UCLA 2209 1947 8 FloridaU 1946 1944 9 VirginiaTech 1903 1929 10 NotreDame 1936 1926 11 TexasA&M 2033 1923 12 WashingtonState 1835 1919 13 Clemson 1793 1918 14 WashingtonU 1816 1913 15 MinnesotaU 1772 1905 16 WisconsinU 1926 1904 17 SantaClara 1878 1885 18 Auburn 1719 1885 19 SouthCarolinaU 1811 1874 20 CaliforniaU 1853 1873 21 SouthernCalifornia 1791 1872 22 MichiganU 1814 1869 23 TexasTech 1863 1862 24 ConnecticutU 1724 1840 25 Rutgers 1785 1811 26 NorthwesternU 1722 1810 27 ArizonaU 1726 1792 28 MississippiU 1676 1786 29 SouthFlorida 1736 1776 30 OhioState 1659 1768 31 LongBeachState 1576 1763 32 KentuckyU 1896 1763 33 CalStateFullerton 1723 1763 34 Duke 1736 1759 35 TexasU 1711 1741 36 IllinoisU 1715 1738 37 DePaul 1793 1732 38 UCF 1820 1730 39 OklahomaU 1650 1727 40 BostonCollege 1688 1724 41 Pepperdine 1880 1715 42 KansasU 1664 1715 43 NebraskaU 1723 1695 44 ColoradoU 1811 1695 45 StJohns 1580 1688 46 MissouriU 1680 1687 47 TennesseeU 1702 1687 48 SanDiegoState 1671 1685 49 OklahomaState 1734 1683 50 MichiganState 1607 1677 51 Georgetown 1690 1677 52 ArizonaState 1792 1676 53 Northeastern 1643 1666 54 NorthTexas 1562 1652 55 LoyolaMarymount 1495 1648 56 Louisville 1587 1637 57 IowaU 1844 1632 58 SanFrancisco 1499 1631 59 LSU 1454 1629 60 PortlandU 1692 1628 61 Hofstra 1585 1626 62 William&Mary 1515 1625 63 Harvard 1593 1625 64 UtahU 1607 1623 65 TCU 1559 1616 66 Baylor 1652 1607 67 CalStateNorthridge 1471 1606 68 Seattle 1574 1606 69 Pittsburgh 1419 1598 70 SanDiegoU 1758 1592 71 BostonU 1686 1592 72 Memphis 1639 1591 73 Purdue 1456 1588 74 CalPoly 1593 1586 75 Cincinnati 1496 1584 76 IndianaU 1631 1582 77 Vanderbilt 1500 1582 78 Princeton 1443 1577 79 OregonState 1381 1576 80 SouthAlabama 1433 1567 81 BallState 1442 1560 82 MiamiOH 1574 1557 83 FloridaGulfCoast 1625 1557 84 JamesMadison 1487 1556 85 MarylandU 1700 1554 86 Marquette 1695 1552 87 Tulsa 1524 1550 88 GeorgiaU 1673 1548 89 MiamiFL 1571 1544 90 NewMexicoU 1562 1543 91 Samford 1402 1541 92 UNCWilmington 1320 1539 93 Rice 1617 1531 94 Butler 1458 1527 95 ArkansasU 1649 1526 96 WakeForest 1686 1523 97 GeorgeWashington 1406 1518 98 UCRiverside 1478 1503 99 Dayton 1595 1503 100 OregonU 1614 1496 101 SanJoseState 1405 1493 102 Marshall 1308 1486 103 Providence 1472 1482 104 LaSalle 1620 1481 105 EastCarolina 1530 1481 106 UCDavis 1364 1478 107 WesternMichigan 1433 1478 108 Milwaukee 1402 1476 109 UCIrvine 1520 1475 110 IllinoisState 1613 1474 111 AlabamaU 1631 1474 112 Temple 1343 1474 113 UtahValley 1346 1470 114 Navy 1558 1468 115 UCSantaBarbara 1379 1464 116 VCU 1486 1461 117 Dartmouth 1473 1454 118 BoiseState 1478 1446 119 Gonzaga 1550 1440 120 Buffalo 1546 1439 121 StMarys 1453 1437 122 Syracuse 1535 1437 123 WyomingU 1493 1429 124 Creighton 1335 1428 125 IowaState 1477 1428 126 Troy 1308 1424 127 UNLV 1398 1420 128 Colgate 1562 1419 129 FIU 1315 1418 130 UTEP 1428 1413 131 ColoradoCollege 1643 1413 132 SouthDakotaState 1352 1412 133 EasternWashington 1216 1410 134 Cornell 1241 1410 135 Furman 1467 1408 136 UtahState 1437 1406 137 PennsylvaniaU 1504 1402 138 SMU 1382 1399 139 FairleighDickinson 1249 1397 140 DelawareU 1364 1393 141 Fordham 1263 1388 142 WesternKentucky 1302 1382 143 Valparaiso 1517 1381 144 Yale 1378 1378 145 KentState 1329 1378 146 IdahoU 1155 1377 147 StephenFAustin 1539 1375 148 Bucknell 1356 1372 149 GeorgeMason 1225 1369 150 MiddleTennessee 1352 1368 151 NorthDakotaState 1224 1367 152 Lipscomb 1217 1367 153 UMKC 1410 1366 154 Liberty 1389 1365 155 NorthernArizona 1450 1365 156 Oakland 1314 1365 157 Drexel 1369 1360 158 Elon 1233 1357 159 CoastalCarolina 1224 1355 160 MississippiState 1178 1352 161 Monmouth 1391 1351 162 CentralMichigan 1344 1351 163 StLouis 1295 1351 164 Mercer 1431 1348 165 FloridaAtlantic 1287 1346 166 NorthernColorado 1292 1343 167 Towson 1356 1341 168 Columbia 1361 1332 169 FresnoState 1227 1331 170 NorthernKentucky 1251 1331 171 Lehigh 1188 1328 172 MassachusettsU 1277 1327 173 Toledo 1299 1324 174 StJosephs 1371 1324 175 EasternMichigan 1470 1323 176 CentralConnecticut 1294 1319 177 MontanaU 1429 1315 178 MurrayState 1195 1315 179 HighPoint 1340 1309 180 Drake 1230 1303 181 EastTennesseeState 1275 1301 182 MissouriState 1197 1300 183 NCState 1336 1292 184 UNCGreensboro 1325 1287 185 LoyolaChicago 1185 1286 186 HoustonBaptist 1283 1282 187 CollegeofCharleston 1217 1281 188 WrightState 1296 1280 189 Niagara 1278 1276 190 Richmond 1312 1274 191 WeberState 1169 1269 192 NevadaU 1223 1268 193 HawaiiU 1421 1267 194 AppalachianState 1156 1265 195 Brown 1303 1260 196 PortlandState 1425 1257 197 Hartford 1230 1254 198 ClevelandState 1248 1252 199 AbileneChristian 1182 1246 200 LoyolaMD 1247 1244 201 OldDominion 1213 1237 202 Detroit 1261 1234 203 Army 1274 1233 204 Manhattan 1064 1232 205 Rider 1283 1229 206 Villanova 1396 1229 207 MaineU 1168 1227 208 Xavier 1156 1225 209 TexasState 1194 1224 210 Charlotte 1375 1224 211 Duquesne 1187 1223 212 NewHampshireU 1275 1217 213 SamHoustonState 1228 1213 214 Morehead 1241 1212 215 SouthernUtah 1204 1211 216 LouisianaTech 1324 1209 217 AirForce 1301 1207 218 GrandCanyon 1265 1206 219 SetonHall 1251 1206 220 Davidson 1182 1205 221 JacksonvilleU 1274 1200 222 Campbell 1111 1199 223 OhioU 1186 1194 224 StonyBrook 1138 1194 225 GeorgiaSouthern 1251 1193 226 HolyCross 1236 1188 227 Pacific 1153 1184 228 SacramentoState 1232 1184 229 VermontU 1019 1184 230 WesternCarolina 1255 1183 231 SoutheastMissouriState 1273 1177 232 ColoradoState 1160 1176 233 LouisianaLafayette 1124 1173 234 Longwood 1110 1168 235 Albany 1159 1166 236 BowlingGreen 1100 1163 237 Denver 1475 1161 238 Akron 1167 1159 239 IUPUI 1185 1158 240 OralRoberts 1187 1155 241 UALR 1013 1150 242 Evansville 1313 1145 243 Houston 1153 1144 244 GeorgiaState 1107 1142 245 StFrancis 1130 1140 246 Siena 1147 1135 247 SELouisiana 1099 1135 248 UNI 1094 1130 249 Stetson 1063 1129 250 KennesawState 1270 1125 251 IllinoisChicago 1130 1124 252 TennesseeMartin 1251 1122 253 JacksonvilleState 1147 1119 254 GreenBay 1306 1116 255 UTSA 1178 1116 256 CalStateBakersfield 1010 1115 257 UAB 1199 1113 258 IndianaState 1135 1110 259 StBonaventure 1148 1108 260 SIUEdwardsville 1286 1103 261 Marist 1008 1101 262 RhodeIslandU 1274 1095 263 Fairfield 1324 1093 264 Lafayette 1079 1091 265 UNCAsheville 974 1089 266 UMBC 1307 1089 267 TexasPanAmerican 1087 1087 268 SouthDakotaU 1093 1086 269 IPFW 994 1082 270 Bryant 1049 1080 271 American 989 1077 272 TennesseeTech 818 1066 273 NorthFlorida 1077 1066 274 UNOmaha 1069 1065 275 Winthrop 1118 1063 276 Quinnipiac 960 1047 277 RobertMorris 1013 1047 278 CentralArkansas 903 1043 279 IdahoState 1313 1041 280 YoungstownState 1145 1036 281 AustinPeay 967 1035 282 NorthernIllinois 1236 1035 283 Belmont 1145 1034 284 GardnerWebb 1007 1032 285 NorthDakotaU 842 1024 286 Canisius 1031 1020 287 McNeeseState 991 1009 288 WesternIllinois 1138 1007 289 SacredHeart 1112 1006 290 Wofford 1102 1006 291 UMassLowell 999 1001 292 NewMexicoState 1023 993 293 SouthernMississippi 1028 990 294 Presbyterian 903 987 295 Lamar 1016 985 296 NorthwesternState 985 976 297 Wagner 1216 974 298 TexasCorpusChristi 958 970 299 Binghamton 1142 960 300 CharlestonSouthern 861 959 301 Hampton 1345 934 302 EasternIllinois 911 929 303 EasternKentucky 922 913 304 Iona 1023 912 305 Radford 1066 908 306 NichollsState 1049 904 307 IncarnateWord 989 899 308 LongIsland 1013 887 309 DelawareState 756 887 310 LouisianaMonroe 890 864 311 ArkansasState 935 863 312 MountStMary 865 862 313 VMI 674 844 314 PrairieViewA&M 716 831 315 Howard 857 829 316 USCUpstate 813 801 317 ChicagoState 887 775 318 Citadel 964 768 319 Chattanooga 642 746 320 FrancisMarion 775 739 321 AlabamaState 703 729 322 NJIT 840 725 323 MississippiValley 523 696 324 JacksonState 656 690 325 StPeters 642 683 326 SouthCarolinaState 641 615 327 TexasSouthern 495 477 328 AlabamaA&M 469 407 329 ArkansasPineBluff 228 395 330 SouthernU 436 354 331 Grambling 237 251 332 AlcornState 135 71 333
I have a couple of examples to go through that may help give a sense of how Elo ratings work. They're UCLA and BYU. Using my system with starting seeds, UCLA went into the season with a rating of 2209 and a rank of #2. BYU started at 1878 and #16. As of last weekend's games, UCLA now has dropped to its low point of 1947 and #8; and BYU has climbed to its high point of 1972 and #7. Here's how it's gone for UCLA's ratings. The games are in chronological order: Starting rating: 2209 #2 Loss to Long Beach State Away: 2141 [Note: This is a pretty big drop because UCLA was a heavy favorite according to the two teams' ratings at that time.] Win v San Diego Away: 2151 [Note: This is a small gain because, even when adjusted for home field advantage, UCLA was a heavy favorite.] Win v Wisconsin Home: 2161 Loss to Virginia Home: 2122 Loss to Texas Home: 2055 Win v Wake Forest Away: 2064' Loss to North Carolina Away: 2036 Win v Pepperdine Home: 2052 Win v Oregon Home: 2054 Loss to Washington Away: 2003 Loss to Washington State Away: 1957 Win v Arizona Home: 1975 Tie to Arizona State Home: 1947 #8 [Note: UCLA's current #8 Elo-bassed rating compares to #62 for the ARPI. A good question is, which is closer to UCLA's true position -- #8 or #62. Consider this, using UCLA's opponents' current ARPI and Elo-based ranks listed below as ARPI/Elo : UCLA defeated the following: 159/71, 48/17, 119/97, 107/42, 229/101, 23/28 UCLA tied the following: 109/53 UCLA lost to the following: 26/32, 13/2, 51/36, 18/4, 16/15, 21/13] Here's how it's gone for BYU's ratings: Starting rating: 1878 #16 Win v California Neutral: 1910 Win v Colorado Home: 1929 Win v Nebraska Away: 1953 Win v Utah Home: 1960 Loss to Stanford Away: 1944 Win v Utah State Home: 1946 Win v UNLV Home: 1949 Win v Oregon State Home: 1954 Tie v Cal Poly Away: 1933 [Note: BYU's rating dropped because it was pretty heavily favored to win notwithstanding Cal Poly's home field advantage.] Win v Long Beach State Away: 1951 Win v Gonzaga Away: 1956 Win v Portland Away: 1967 Win v San Diego Home: 1972 #7 [Note: BYU's current #7 Elo-bassed rating compares to #14 for the ARPI. Again a good question is, which is closer to BYU's true position. Consider this, using BYU's opponents' current ARPI and Elo-based ranks listed below as ARPI/Elo : BYU defeated the following: 31/21, 105/45, 35/44, 73/65, 178/137, 175/128, 67/80, 26/32, 180/120, 120/61, 159/71 BYU tied the following: 79/75 BYU lost to the following: 8/3] A careful look at the numbers shows how, game by game, an Elo-based system corrects teams' initial seeds. We're about 2/3 of the way through the season, so the system still has a way to go. Unfortunately, that will get us to roughly 20 games, whereas it takes the system roughly 30 games to get the initial seeds corrected. The ARPI, on the other hand, starts with all teams initially seeded as equal. It too will have roughly 20 games to correct teams' initial seeds. And likewise unfortunately, it takes roughly 30 games (the NCAA once said "at least" 25 games) to get the starting equality corrected. Using these two examples, it will be interesting to see where the teams end up by the end of the season and which rankings seem more likely correct, the Elo-based or the ARPI.
Here are Elo (cpt version) ratings for games through Sunday, October 18. What you're seeing are team initial "seeded" rating/current rating/rank: FloridaState 2224 2226 1 VirginiaU 2178 2170 2 Stanford 2092 2075 3 WestVirginiaU 1933 2025 4 NorthCarolinaU 2053 1993 5 PennState 1992 1978 6 BYU 1878 1973 7 TexasA&M 2033 1948 8 FloridaU 1946 1947 9 WisconsinU 1926 1943 10 VirginiaTech 1903 1934 11 NotreDame 1936 1930 12 Clemson 1793 1925 13 CaliforniaU 1853 1912 14 UCLA 2209 1887 15 Rutgers 1785 1884 16 SouthernCalifornia 1791 1882 17 SantaClara 1878 1874 18 ConnecticutU 1724 1872 19 WashingtonState 1835 1867 20 WashingtonU 1816 1854 21 MichiganU 1814 1849 22 Auburn 1719 1846 23 ArizonaU 1726 1844 24 MinnesotaU 1772 1840 25 MississippiU 1676 1825 26 Duke 1736 1820 27 SouthCarolinaU 1811 1812 28 TexasTech 1863 1801 29 CalStateFullerton 1723 1798 30 TexasU 1711 1793 31 SouthFlorida 1736 1788 32 NorthwesternU 1722 1781 33 OhioState 1659 1767 34 UCF 1820 1745 35 KentuckyU 1896 1738 36 ArizonaState 1792 1736 37 IllinoisU 1715 1723 38 MichiganState 1607 1722 39 DePaul 1793 1722 40 BostonCollege 1688 1717 41 MissouriU 1680 1716 42 Pepperdine 1880 1715 43 NebraskaU 1723 1711 44 KansasU 1664 1707 45 SanDiegoState 1671 1707 46 OklahomaState 1734 1700 47 StJohns 1580 1698 48 ColoradoU 1811 1690 49 OklahomaU 1650 1685 50 Hofstra 1585 1671 51 Georgetown 1690 1663 52 NorthTexas 1562 1663 53 William&Mary 1515 1661 54 IowaU 1844 1661 55 LSU 1454 1659 56 Baylor 1652 1658 57 TennesseeU 1702 1657 58 SanFrancisco 1499 1653 59 LongBeachState 1576 1651 60 LoyolaMarymount 1495 1648 61 Vanderbilt 1500 1644 62 OregonState 1381 1636 63 Louisville 1587 1634 64 Harvard 1593 1631 65 Northeastern 1643 1621 66 Purdue 1456 1620 67 CalStateNorthridge 1471 1618 68 TCU 1559 1616 69 UtahU 1607 1615 70 Seattle 1574 1613 71 PortlandU 1692 1609 72 Cincinnati 1496 1608 73 BostonU 1686 1601 74 Princeton 1443 1595 75 Pittsburgh 1419 1591 76 SouthAlabama 1433 1583 77 UNCWilmington 1320 1581 78 FloridaGulfCoast 1625 1580 79 Marquette 1695 1569 80 GeorgeWashington 1406 1566 81 Tulsa 1524 1557 82 IndianaU 1631 1550 83 WesternMichigan 1433 1549 84 CalPoly 1593 1544 85 UCRiverside 1478 1543 86 UCSantaBarbara 1379 1543 87 JamesMadison 1487 1543 88 Samford 1402 1541 89 Butler 1458 1540 90 MiamiFL 1571 1539 91 SanDiegoU 1758 1538 92 BallState 1442 1530 93 MarylandU 1700 1524 94 SanJoseState 1405 1523 95 AlabamaU 1631 1522 96 Memphis 1639 1521 97 WakeForest 1686 1518 98 Providence 1472 1517 99 Rice 1617 1515 100 NewMexicoU 1562 1512 101 UCIrvine 1520 1512 102 Temple 1343 1503 103 GeorgiaU 1673 1501 104 ArkansasU 1649 1495 105 Dayton 1595 1495 106 Navy 1558 1493 107 StMarys 1453 1492 108 MiamiOH 1574 1491 109 OregonU 1614 1487 110 Milwaukee 1402 1487 111 UtahValley 1346 1485 112 Buffalo 1546 1480 113 VCU 1486 1474 114 LaSalle 1620 1464 115 EastCarolina 1530 1461 116 Marshall 1308 1458 117 Dartmouth 1473 1456 118 Syracuse 1535 1454 119 UtahState 1437 1452 120 Cornell 1241 1443 121 UCDavis 1364 1440 122 Furman 1467 1440 123 WesternKentucky 1302 1435 124 IllinoisState 1613 1428 125 IdahoU 1155 1428 126 ColoradoCollege 1643 1424 127 WyomingU 1493 1422 128 Gonzaga 1550 1418 129 IowaState 1477 1417 130 KentState 1329 1416 131 BoiseState 1478 1414 132 SouthDakotaState 1352 1408 133 PennsylvaniaU 1504 1408 134 FairleighDickinson 1249 1405 135 FloridaAtlantic 1287 1399 136 DelawareU 1364 1399 137 Colgate 1562 1399 138 NorthernColorado 1292 1399 139 Creighton 1335 1393 140 UNLV 1398 1392 141 UMKC 1410 1391 142 Valparaiso 1517 1390 143 Fordham 1263 1390 144 StephenFAustin 1539 1389 145 Troy 1308 1386 146 Bucknell 1356 1385 147 StJosephs 1371 1381 148 MiddleTennessee 1352 1380 149 SMU 1382 1378 150 NorthDakotaState 1224 1378 151 UTEP 1428 1376 152 EasternWashington 1216 1376 153 Drexel 1369 1372 154 Monmouth 1391 1363 155 MurrayState 1195 1362 156 FIU 1315 1361 157 Lipscomb 1217 1357 158 MassachusettsU 1277 1354 159 GeorgeMason 1225 1353 160 CentralMichigan 1344 1352 161 Oakland 1314 1351 162 MississippiState 1178 1349 163 MissouriState 1197 1346 164 Yale 1378 1340 165 NevadaU 1223 1336 166 HighPoint 1340 1334 167 Towson 1356 1330 168 EasternMichigan 1470 1326 169 UNCGreensboro 1325 1324 170 CoastalCarolina 1224 1321 171 Mercer 1431 1319 172 HoustonBaptist 1283 1314 173 FresnoState 1227 1311 174 Lehigh 1188 1308 175 NorthernArizona 1450 1305 176 WeberState 1169 1304 177 Elon 1233 1304 178 NorthernKentucky 1251 1302 179 AppalachianState 1156 1301 180 Liberty 1389 1301 181 MontanaU 1429 1295 182 Drake 1230 1295 183 LoyolaChicago 1185 1293 184 Hartford 1230 1286 185 OldDominion 1213 1281 186 AbileneChristian 1182 1281 187 NCState 1336 1276 188 LoyolaMD 1247 1272 189 Columbia 1361 1272 190 LouisianaTech 1324 1272 191 Brown 1303 1270 192 StLouis 1295 1269 193 TexasState 1194 1268 194 Rider 1283 1268 195 WrightState 1296 1268 196 ClevelandState 1248 1264 197 CollegeofCharleston 1217 1263 198 Xavier 1156 1263 199 CentralConnecticut 1294 1262 200 Toledo 1299 1260 201 HawaiiU 1421 1256 202 SouthernUtah 1204 1255 203 Manhattan 1064 1250 204 Duquesne 1187 1246 205 Niagara 1278 1246 206 JacksonvilleU 1274 1243 207 PortlandState 1425 1237 208 EastTennesseeState 1275 1228 209 Richmond 1312 1225 210 Detroit 1261 1223 211 OralRoberts 1187 1222 212 Longwood 1110 1212 213 MaineU 1168 1206 214 Morehead 1241 1205 215 Army 1274 1205 216 StonyBrook 1138 1195 217 OhioU 1186 1194 218 Denver 1475 1193 219 Campbell 1111 1193 220 SetonHall 1251 1193 221 GrandCanyon 1265 1192 222 StBonaventure 1148 1192 223 GeorgiaState 1107 1191 224 Lafayette 1079 1188 225 SoutheastMissouriState 1273 1188 226 Villanova 1396 1187 227 Pacific 1153 1184 228 Akron 1167 1183 229 AirForce 1301 1181 230 IllinoisChicago 1130 1179 231 Charlotte 1375 1178 232 Evansville 1313 1178 233 SacramentoState 1232 1175 234 Albany 1159 1175 235 GeorgiaSouthern 1251 1166 236 UALR 1013 1165 237 WesternCarolina 1255 1161 238 Davidson 1182 1160 239 Siena 1147 1144 240 IUPUI 1185 1144 241 ColoradoState 1160 1144 242 HolyCross 1236 1143 243 NewHampshireU 1275 1139 244 Houston 1153 1139 245 SamHoustonState 1228 1138 246 SELouisiana 1099 1137 247 JacksonvilleState 1147 1131 248 UMBC 1307 1127 249 RobertMorris 1013 1127 250 Stetson 1063 1125 251 BowlingGreen 1100 1124 252 SouthDakotaU 1093 1121 253 SIUEdwardsville 1286 1120 254 KennesawState 1270 1114 255 UNI 1094 1112 256 LouisianaLafayette 1124 1110 257 TennesseeMartin 1251 1107 258 GreenBay 1306 1107 259 CalStateBakersfield 1010 1106 260 VermontU 1019 1096 261 StFrancis 1130 1094 262 Fairfield 1324 1093 263 UAB 1199 1089 264 TexasPanAmerican 1087 1087 265 IndianaState 1135 1083 266 TennesseeTech 818 1075 267 Winthrop 1118 1074 268 Wofford 1102 1071 269 Quinnipiac 960 1065 270 UTSA 1178 1060 271 NorthernIllinois 1236 1060 272 UNCAsheville 974 1059 273 RhodeIslandU 1274 1058 274 Bryant 1049 1057 275 American 989 1056 276 GardnerWebb 1007 1055 277 UNOmaha 1069 1047 278 Marist 1008 1042 279 Binghamton 1142 1038 280 UMassLowell 999 1030 281 Belmont 1145 1026 282 IdahoState 1313 1026 283 NorthFlorida 1077 1025 284 YoungstownState 1145 1024 285 IPFW 994 1023 286 SouthernMississippi 1028 1020 287 McNeeseState 991 1010 288 SacredHeart 1112 1007 289 NorthDakotaU 842 997 290 NewMexicoState 1023 995 291 NorthwesternState 985 990 292 TexasCorpusChristi 958 990 293 AustinPeay 967 985 294 Canisius 1031 979 295 CentralArkansas 903 976 296 CharlestonSouthern 861 969 297 NichollsState 1049 963 298 WesternIllinois 1138 956 299 Presbyterian 903 955 300 Lamar 1016 954 301 Radford 1066 945 302 MountStMary 865 940 303 EasternKentucky 922 939 304 Wagner 1216 937 305 Hampton 1345 934 306 LongIsland 1013 918 307 DelawareState 756 909 308 IncarnateWord 989 893 309 EasternIllinois 911 887 310 Iona 1023 878 311 VMI 674 857 312 ArkansasState 935 848 313 LouisianaMonroe 890 847 314 Howard 857 839 315 USCUpstate 813 810 316 PrairieViewA&M 716 794 317 FrancisMarion 775 768 318 ChicagoState 887 756 319 Chattanooga 642 746 320 JacksonState 656 745 321 Citadel 964 744 322 MississippiValley 523 736 323 NJIT 840 716 324 AlabamaState 703 699 325 StPeters 642 678 326 SouthCarolinaState 641 586 327 TexasSouthern 495 494 328 AlabamaA&M 469 411 329 ArkansasPineBluff 228 387 330 SouthernU 436 320 331 Grambling 237 248 332 AlcornState 135 57 333
At last, here are Elo (cpt version) ratings for games through Sunday, October 1. What you're seeing are team/initial "seeded" rating/current rating/rank: VirginiaU 2178 2204 1 FloridaState 2224 2173 2 Stanford 2092 2117 3 NorthCarolinaU 2053 2038 4 WestVirginiaU 1933 2037 5 PennState 1992 1999 6 FloridaU 1946 1968 7 VirginiaTech 1903 1960 8 WisconsinU 1926 1953 9 NotreDame 1936 1940 10 BYU 1878 1918 11 CaliforniaU 1853 1915 12 Rutgers 1785 1909 13 UCLA 2209 1908 14 Clemson 1793 1906 15 SouthernCalifornia 1791 1903 16 TexasA&M 2033 1901 17 MississippiU 1676 1899 18 SantaClara 1878 1878 19 ConnecticutU 1724 1875 20 WashingtonU 1816 1868 21 ArizonaU 1726 1861 22 MichiganU 1814 1860 23 TexasTech 1863 1821 24 NorthwesternU 1722 1816 25 MinnesotaU 1772 1815 26 CalStateFullerton 1723 1810 27 WashingtonState 1835 1809 28 Auburn 1719 1803 29 Duke 1736 1798 30 SouthCarolinaU 1811 1788 31 UCF 1820 1779 32 ArizonaState 1792 1765 33 MissouriU 1680 1764 34 SouthFlorida 1736 1754 35 NebraskaU 1723 1747 36 OhioState 1659 1747 37 BostonCollege 1688 1741 38 Pepperdine 1880 1740 39 OklahomaU 1650 1730 40 SanFrancisco 1499 1725 41 SanDiegoState 1671 1724 42 OklahomaState 1734 1717 43 KentuckyU 1896 1716 44 StJohns 1580 1707 45 Baylor 1652 1707 46 TexasU 1711 1694 47 LongBeachState 1576 1692 48 MichiganState 1607 1692 49 Hofstra 1585 1690 50 IllinoisU 1715 1688 51 LoyolaMarymount 1495 1683 52 NorthTexas 1562 1681 53 LSU 1454 1674 54 Georgetown 1690 1673 55 William&Mary 1515 1667 56 DePaul 1793 1666 57 ColoradoU 1811 1665 58 KansasU 1664 1657 59 Louisville 1587 1643 60 Princeton 1443 1639 61 TennesseeU 1702 1636 62 Seattle 1574 1628 63 IowaU 1844 1625 64 TCU 1559 1622 65 GeorgiaU 1673 1616 66 Marquette 1695 1614 67 BostonU 1686 1612 68 Purdue 1456 1608 69 OregonState 1381 1605 70 GeorgeWashington 1406 1598 71 UtahU 1607 1597 72 UCSantaBarbara 1379 1594 73 Cincinnati 1496 1592 74 SouthAlabama 1433 1588 75 UNCWilmington 1320 1588 76 FloridaGulfCoast 1625 1587 77 Harvard 1593 1587 78 Providence 1472 1576 79 Pittsburgh 1419 1575 80 WesternMichigan 1433 1574 81 CalStateNorthridge 1471 1569 82 PortlandU 1692 1566 83 Vanderbilt 1500 1565 84 BallState 1442 1564 85 MarylandU 1700 1562 86 UCRiverside 1478 1560 87 JamesMadison 1487 1560 88 Tulsa 1524 1556 89 NewMexicoU 1562 1554 90 IndianaU 1631 1532 91 Memphis 1639 1527 92 Temple 1343 1527 93 Butler 1458 1526 94 CalPoly 1593 1524 95 Syracuse 1535 1522 96 SanDiegoU 1758 1517 97 Dayton 1595 1509 98 Northeastern 1643 1506 99 Rice 1617 1498 100 Marshall 1308 1496 101 Buffalo 1546 1494 102 Samford 1402 1494 103 MiamiFL 1571 1490 104 ArkansasU 1649 1489 105 SanJoseState 1405 1486 106 Milwaukee 1402 1483 107 VCU 1486 1482 108 WyomingU 1493 1481 109 WakeForest 1686 1475 110 UNLV 1398 1475 111 EastCarolina 1530 1473 112 OregonU 1614 1472 113 IdahoU 1155 1471 114 Furman 1467 1471 115 UCIrvine 1520 1465 116 LaSalle 1620 1458 117 MiamiOH 1574 1458 118 UCDavis 1364 1454 119 AlabamaU 1631 1445 120 DelawareU 1364 1445 121 FloridaAtlantic 1287 1443 122 Navy 1558 1442 123 UtahValley 1346 1442 124 Bucknell 1356 1438 125 UtahState 1437 1435 126 StJosephs 1371 1430 127 StMarys 1453 1429 128 PennsylvaniaU 1504 1426 129 Drexel 1369 1422 130 IowaState 1477 1417 131 FairleighDickinson 1249 1411 132 Monmouth 1391 1411 133 KentState 1329 1405 134 UMKC 1410 1404 135 BoiseState 1478 1403 136 Oakland 1314 1402 137 Fordham 1263 1400 138 Gonzaga 1550 1400 139 Dartmouth 1473 1400 140 WesternKentucky 1302 1397 141 MississippiState 1178 1396 142 StephenFAustin 1539 1394 143 EasternWashington 1216 1389 144 Cornell 1241 1388 145 NorthDakotaState 1224 1384 146 ColoradoCollege 1643 1379 147 MurrayState 1195 1376 148 IllinoisState 1613 1368 149 SouthDakotaState 1352 1367 150 Colgate 1562 1366 151 Troy 1308 1365 152 MiddleTennessee 1352 1364 153 Lipscomb 1217 1359 154 SMU 1382 1358 155 NorthernColorado 1292 1354 156 Liberty 1389 1350 157 HighPoint 1340 1349 158 UTEP 1428 1347 159 NorthernArizona 1450 1345 160 Towson 1356 1345 161 CentralMichigan 1344 1344 162 MontanaU 1429 1336 163 MassachusettsU 1277 1335 164 Toledo 1299 1329 165 Columbia 1361 1328 166 UNCGreensboro 1325 1327 167 Creighton 1335 1327 168 Brown 1303 1325 169 FIU 1315 1325 170 HoustonBaptist 1283 1322 171 Valparaiso 1517 1322 172 Drake 1230 1322 173 WrightState 1296 1316 174 FresnoState 1227 1312 175 LoyolaMD 1247 1308 176 WeberState 1169 1308 177 TexasState 1194 1307 178 GeorgeMason 1225 1307 179 NorthernKentucky 1251 1301 180 Mercer 1431 1300 181 Xavier 1156 1299 182 MissouriState 1197 1299 183 CentralConnecticut 1294 1298 184 Duquesne 1187 1297 185 CoastalCarolina 1224 1297 186 Lehigh 1188 1294 187 NevadaU 1223 1289 188 LouisianaTech 1324 1288 189 EasternMichigan 1470 1284 190 Rider 1283 1282 191 OralRoberts 1187 1281 192 OldDominion 1213 1274 193 Yale 1378 1273 194 Elon 1233 1266 195 AppalachianState 1156 1264 196 NCState 1336 1263 197 AbileneChristian 1182 1263 198 CollegeofCharleston 1217 1256 199 StLouis 1295 1256 200 JacksonvilleU 1274 1255 201 Hartford 1230 1247 202 Pacific 1153 1246 203 HawaiiU 1421 1238 204 GrandCanyon 1265 1238 205 Evansville 1313 1238 206 Campbell 1111 1236 207 LoyolaChicago 1185 1236 208 SouthernUtah 1204 1232 209 Lafayette 1079 1228 210 Niagara 1278 1227 211 WesternCarolina 1255 1226 212 Denver 1475 1225 213 Albany 1159 1225 214 Detroit 1261 1223 215 GeorgiaState 1107 1222 216 Charlotte 1375 1222 217 Manhattan 1064 1217 218 PortlandState 1425 1213 219 ClevelandState 1248 1208 220 MaineU 1168 1200 221 Longwood 1110 1200 222 TennesseeMartin 1251 1190 223 Richmond 1312 1190 224 UALR 1013 1184 225 SetonHall 1251 1180 226 Villanova 1396 1177 227 SoutheastMissouriState 1273 1176 228 Army 1274 1175 229 Davidson 1182 1172 230 IllinoisChicago 1130 1170 231 Akron 1167 1168 232 AirForce 1301 1167 233 SouthDakotaU 1093 1165 234 Siena 1147 1164 235 SacramentoState 1232 1159 236 SamHoustonState 1228 1156 237 StBonaventure 1148 1153 238 Morehead 1241 1152 239 EastTennesseeState 1275 1148 240 OhioU 1186 1145 241 IndianaState 1135 1140 242 RobertMorris 1013 1139 243 UMBC 1307 1137 244 VermontU 1019 1134 245 UNI 1094 1133 246 Houston 1153 1133 247 GeorgiaSouthern 1251 1132 248 SELouisiana 1099 1130 249 KennesawState 1270 1130 250 NorthernIllinois 1236 1129 251 HolyCross 1236 1125 252 NewHampshireU 1275 1123 253 StonyBrook 1138 1119 254 Stetson 1063 1118 255 YoungstownState 1145 1116 256 ColoradoState 1160 1113 257 LouisianaLafayette 1124 1110 258 Quinnipiac 960 1096 259 IUPUI 1185 1092 260 CalStateBakersfield 1010 1089 261 TexasPanAmerican 1087 1087 262 UAB 1199 1081 263 StFrancis 1130 1075 264 Wofford 1102 1073 265 JacksonvilleState 1147 1072 266 BowlingGreen 1100 1072 267 Fairfield 1324 1070 268 SIUEdwardsville 1286 1070 269 UMassLowell 999 1069 270 American 989 1063 271 Belmont 1145 1058 272 TennesseeTech 818 1057 273 UTSA 1178 1054 274 GreenBay 1306 1054 275 Bryant 1049 1051 276 Winthrop 1118 1049 277 AustinPeay 967 1045 278 TexasCorpusChristi 958 1043 279 RhodeIslandU 1274 1040 280 Binghamton 1142 1038 281 Marist 1008 1037 282 UNOmaha 1069 1036 283 UNCAsheville 974 1035 284 NichollsState 1049 1021 285 Wagner 1216 1019 286 SouthernMississippi 1028 1018 287 NorthFlorida 1077 1013 288 IPFW 994 1010 289 NewMexicoState 1023 1009 290 IdahoState 1313 1004 291 GardnerWebb 1007 1003 292 CharlestonSouthern 861 1001 293 NorthDakotaU 842 985 294 NorthwesternState 985 980 295 Canisius 1031 978 296 McNeeseState 991 974 297 EasternKentucky 922 965 298 Presbyterian 903 960 299 SacredHeart 1112 958 300 Radford 1066 945 301 LongIsland 1013 940 302 CentralArkansas 903 935 303 Hampton 1345 934 304 WesternIllinois 1138 933 305 Lamar 1016 928 306 DelawareState 756 910 307 MountStMary 865 904 308 IncarnateWord 989 888 309 Iona 1023 868 310 EasternIllinois 911 864 311 Howard 857 860 312 VMI 674 853 313 LouisianaMonroe 890 847 314 ArkansasState 935 845 315 USCUpstate 813 830 316 Chattanooga 642 808 317 JacksonState 656 761 318 FrancisMarion 775 731 319 Citadel 964 730 320 ChicagoState 887 727 321 MississippiValley 523 716 322 NJIT 840 714 323 PrairieViewA&M 716 695 324 AlabamaState 703 680 325 StPeters 642 657 326 TexasSouthern 495 584 327 SouthCarolinaState 641 581 328 AlabamaA&M 469 439 329 ArkansasPineBluff 228 399 330 SouthernU 436 332 331 Grambling 237 208 332 AlcornState 135 56 333