As most of us know, FIFA likes to change how they do the World Cup seeding to suit their needs. However, we can still discuss who we think deserves one of the coveted 7 seeds (Brazil is a lock, since they are host). So with Brazil getting one of the seeds, that leaves 7 spots. Brazil is locked in at number 1: 1. Brazil The virtual locks are: 2. Spain 3. Germany 4. Argentina I believe that the Netherlands are a near lock: 5. Netherlands So, that leaves 3 spots. Which are the candidate teams? I would say Croatia, Portugal, Colombia, Italy, England, and possibly Ecuador, Russia, Belgium and Cote d'Ivoire. I would be shocked if these last four are seeded, as they do not have a lot of World Cup success. I would bet on the last three seeds going to Italy, England, and Croatia.
1. Brasil (host) 2. Spain 3. Germany 4. Argentina 5. Colombia 6. Ecuador 7. Ivory Coast 8. Ghana Those would be my seeded teams as of now but I doubt Fifa with all their european favortism will allow it. It will probably be Brasil, Argentina and six european teams that get seeded. []__[]
Link to a 2010 seeding thread Link to Edgar's page. Can't wait to see his late June updates. Wonder how Scotland's win effects that.
What has Netherlands done to deserve being seeded, after they made the finals in 2010 they have been a disappointment. []__[]
It's true they had a poor performance in Euro 2012 (no points), but they have been perfect in qualifying thus far. They also have a much better world cup record than any of the teams you mentioned (5-8).
Still, with the exception of Ghana, none of your teams have done anything in the World Cup, ever. Ecuador has no business being mentioned above the Netherlands. They didn't qualify for the 2010 World Cup, and their performance in the 2011 Copa America wasn't stellar either (0-1-2). Ivory Coast has never made it out the group stage, and Colombia hasn't qualified since 1998. Colombia did win their group in Copa America, but subsequently lost to Peru in the next round. I guess I'm not sure what Colombia and Ecuador have done over the last 3 years that's so impressive to outclass a team going to the World Cup Final.
I agree with your first 5, Portugal, Uruguay and either Italy, England or maybe Mexico would be my bets for the last 3 if FIFA stick to the same type of method used for the last 2 WC's (ie based on last 2 WC results and 3yrs FIFA ranking). France may be in there as well but Ghana, Japan and USA would be extreme outsiders, although probably ahead of any other countries.
That certainly hasn't been true in the past. FIFA never announces the seeding criteria until AFTER the seeds are released. They used to use a formula based on past results in international tournaments and have then completely switched to rankings the year France qualified via Henry's handball and would have been seeded under the old formula. But even if they use FIFA rankings. What month's rankings should they use? I'd say December of this year. Anyway, as of right now, I'd go like this (current FIFA rank) 1. Brazil (hosts) (22) 2. Spain (1) (lock) 3. Germany (2) (lock) 4. Argentina (3) (near lock) 5. Italy (5) (near lock) 6. Netherlands (6) (strong contender) -------------------------- I think the last two spots are kind of up for grabs. Croatia (4), Portugal (6), Colombia (7), Russia (11), and Ecuador (10) are all contenders, but I'd go with: 7. England (9) 8. Belgium (12) Croatia just lost to Scotland, Portugal just beat Russia, Colombia drew Argentina away, and Ecuador lost to Peru away. I'd expect Ecuador to slip from here on out in qualifying (lost of road games), the others are all legit. France and Uruguay have outside shots.
That's not quite correct; for the last WC they simply used FIFA rankings, for 2006 they used the method which you described. I'm not sure what they used for 2002. Either way, FIFA will most likely go with FIFA rankings or some algorithm that blends FIFA rankings with recent WC results. They will choose which ever method suits them best, most likely.
I think France and England are questionable, France more so than England. If Croatia wins their group, I don't see why they wouldn't be seeded over France.
You could say the same thing about Ghana.... well, except that they didn't get to the finals in 2010.
You could say the same about everyone except Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Argentina and Colombia. Struggling to qualify is not a good reason to exclude a team from the discussion of being a seed. Assuming Japan won't be seeded, that means there are at least 2 teams who are currently in "the battle of their lives just to qualify" who will eventually be seeded in 2014.
So? What's your point? If FIFA decide to use their rankings they will care very little about what you think of them.
The Dutch took part in the Euro. Ghana played in the African Cup of nations (or whatever it is called). See the difference?
Colombia has the same amount of points as Ecuador has. And Italy is just leading by four points so they are not having an easy time qualifying. Plus a team that barely qualifies does not deserves to be seeded so qualifying games should have an impact on your seeding status. []__[]
4 points after only 6 games! That's a pretty solid lead. Keep in mind, they only have 4 games left. i think Italy have got the Brazil 2014 tickets in the bag.
a four point lead with four games left is not such a big lead, besides even if they have it in the bag the point is that they are not cruising through qualifying []__[]