I haven't thought about how I will combine different parts of the competition yet. For now: 1.. Post your predicted standings for each group. I care about the ranking with points and goal differential only necessary for your predicted group winners and any clubs involved in a predicted tie for first. 2. Then rank the eight winners for their knockout round seeds by points, then goal differential, then goals scored, then away goals scored, then wins, then away wins, and then drawing of lots (those are the seven tiebreakers according to Wikipedia). All the above must be made before the first Group Stage game on Tuesday. I'm not going to do score predictions until the Quarterfinals.
Here's how I will evaluate predictions. A point in Part 1 and a point in Part 2 may not be equal (I will decide that later). Part 1: 2 points for being correct about a club's standings position 1 point if your first place club or your third place club finishes second 0 points if your second place club finishes first or third because if I awarded points for this everybody would get points for their second place club Part 2: 6 points for being correct about a club's exact knockout rounds seed 5 points for being 1 or 2 off on a club's seed 4 points for being 3 or 4 off on a club's seed 3 points for being 5, 6, or 7 off on a club's seed 0 points for predicting a seed for a club that got eliminated in the Group Stage. In case it wasn't clear, in Part 2 you can stop when all the ties get broken. You don't have to post all the tiebreakers for every group winner.
Group 1 1. Houston 10 pts +5 GD 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2 1. Sporting KC 10 pts +6 GD 8 GS 2. Olimpia 3. Real Esteli Group 3 1. Cruz Azul 10 pts +7 GD 2. Herediano 3. Valencia Group 4 1. America 10 pts +6 GD 10 GS 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5 1. San Jose 8 pts 2. Montreal 3. Heredia Group 6 1. Toluca 12 pts +7 GD 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7 1, Tijuana 12 pts +9 GD 2. Victoria 3. Luis Angel Firpo Group 8 1. Los Angeles 9 pts 2. Isidro 3. Cartagines Seeding 1. Tijuana 12 pts +9 GD 2. Toluca 12 pts +7 GD 3. Cruz Azul 10 pts +7 GD 4. America 10 pts +6 GD 10 GS 5. Sporting KC 10 pts +6 GD 8 GS 6. Houston 10 pts +5 GD 7. Los Angeles 9 pts 8. San Jose 8 pts
Before I didn't post the tiebreakers within a group. They are head-to-head points, head-to-head goal differential, head-to-head away goals, goal differential, goals scored, away goals scored, and then drawing of lots. I think if several people predict there will be a lot of consensus. Here are my predictions: Group 1: 1. Houston: 10 points, +5 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2: 1. Sporting Kansas City: 8 points, +5 2. Olimpia: 8 points, +3 3. Real Esteli Last season Olimpia played two draws against Houston whose points per game in MLS is near what Sporting Kansas City has now, so I'll predict draws in both head-to-head games. Group 3: 1. Cruz Azul: 10 points, +6, 9 goals scored 2. Herediano 3. Valencia Group 4: 1. America: 10 points, +7 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5: 1. Montreal: 10 points, +4 2. San Jose 3. Heredia Montreal has more points per game in MLS than San Jose. Group 6: 1. Toluca: 12 points, +7 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7: 1. Tijuana: 12 points, +9 2. Luis Angel Firpo 3. Victoria Group 8: 1. Los Angeles: 10 points, +6, 10 goals scored 2. Isidro Metapan 3. Cartagines Seeds: 1. Tijuana 2. Toluca 3. America 4. Los Angeles 5. Cruz Azul 6. Houston 7. Montreal 8. Sporting Kansas City
Group 1: 1. Houston: 10 points, +4 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2: 1. Olimpia 8 points, +5 2. Sporting KC: 3. Real Esteli Group 3: 1. Cruz Azul: 12 points, + 10 2. Herediano 3. Valencia Group 4: 1. America: 12 points, +8 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5: 1. Montreal: 10 points, +1 2. San Jose 3. Heredia Group 6: 1. Toluca: 12 points, +9 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7: 1. Tijuana: 12 points, +7 2. Luis Angel Firpo 3. Victoria Group 8: 1. Los Angeles: 10 points, +6, 2. Isidro Metapan 3. Cartagines Seeds 1. Cruz Azul 2. Toluca 3. America 4. Tijuana 5. Galacticos 6. Houston 7. Montreal 8. Olimpia
Group 1: 1. Houston: 8 pts, +5 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2: 1. Kansas City: 10 pts, +4 2. Olimpia 3. Real Esteli Group 3: 1. Herediano: 8 pts, +4 2. Cruz Azul: 8 pts, +3 3. Valencia Group 4: 1. America: 12 pts, +6 2. La Liga 3. Sporting S.M. Group 5: 1. Montreal: 9 pts, +5 2. San Jose 3. Heredia Group 6: 1. Toluca: 8 pts, +2 2. Caledonia AIA 3. Communicaciones Group 7: 1.Tijuana, 9 pts, +6 2. Victoria 3. Luis Angel Firpo Group 8: 1. Los Angeles, 10 pts, +3 2. Cartagines 3. Isidro Metapan SEEDING: 1. America 2. Kansas City 3. Los Angeles 4. Tijuana 5. Montreal 6. Houston 7. Herediano 8. Toluca
I've decided how to score the different parts of the contest. Part 1 and Part 2 that I typed in Post 2 of this topic both yield a maximum score of 48 points. I'm going to make 1 point for Part 1 and 1 point for Part 2 equal, with 1 point for either of those being 0.5 points of your overall score. This makes Part 1 and Part 2 worth 24% each of the overall score. The score predictions for the 14 knockout round games will be worth 2% each for a total of 28%. Since I evaluate score predictions on a 4, 3, 2, or 0 basis, I will make 1 point from that part equal 0.5 points of your overall scored. Score predictions for second legs are for the end of regulation. If you prediction overtime and possibly penalty kicks, that just affects your bracket predictions. Due to the away goals tiebreaker, you could be correct about the aggregate score but wrong about who advances. The knockout rounds bracket prediction will be worth 8% per round for a total of 24%. This means that each quarterfinal will be worth 2 points, each semifinal will be worth 4 points, and the final will be worth 8 points. Like I just did for the Gold Cup, all the bracket predictions must be made before the first quarterfinal game starts. I will post the rules for the knockout rounds again after the Group Stage.
Group 1 1. Houston 9 pts 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2 1. Sporting KC 8 pts 2. Olimpia 3. Real Esteli Group 3 1. Cruz Azul 12 pts 2. Herediano 3. Valencia Group 4 1. America 10 pts 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5 1. Montreal 7 pts 2. San Jose 3. Herediano Group 6 1. Toluca 12 pts 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7 1, Tijuana 10 pts 2. Luis Angel Firpo 3. Victoria Group 8 1. Los Angeles 9 pts 2. Isidro 3. Cartagines Seeding 1. Cruz Azul 12 pts +10 2. Toluca 12 pts +9 3. America 10 pts +12 4. Tijuana 10 pts +8 5. Houston 9 pts +5 6. Los Angeles 9 pts +4 7. Sporting KC 8 pts +4 8. Heredia 7 pts +2
Group 1: 1. Houston: 12 points, +7 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2: 1. Sporting KC: 8 points, +4 2. Olimpia 3. Real Esteli Group 3: 1. Herediano: 9 points, +7 2. Cruz Azul 3. Valencia Group 4: 1. America: 10 points, +12 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5: 1. San Jose : 10 points, +7 2 Montreal 3. Heredia Group 6: 1. Toluca: 12 points, +10 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7: 1. Tijuana: 10 points, +6 2. Luis Angel Firpo 3. Victoria Group 8: 1. Los Angeles: 10 points, +7, 2. Isidro Metapan 3. Cartagines Seeds 1. Toluca 2. Houston 3. America 4. San Jose 5. Los Angeles 6. Tijuana 7. Herediano 8. Sporting Kansas City
Group 1 1. Houston 9 pts 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2 1. Sporting KC 8 pts 2. Olimpia 3. Real Esteli Group 3 1. Cruz Azul 12 pts 2. Herediano 3. Valencia Group 4 1. America 10 pts 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5 1. Heredia 7 pts 2. Montreal 3. San Jose Group 6 1. Toluca 12 pts 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7 1, Tijuana 10 pts 2. Luis Angel Firpo 3. Victoria Group 8 1. Los Angeles 9 pts 2. Isidro 3. Cartagines Seeding 1. Cruz Azul 12 pts +10 2. Toluca 12 pts +9 3. America 10 pts +12 4. Tijuana 10 pts +8 5. Houston 9 pts +5 6. Los Angeles 9 pts +4 7. Sporting KC 8 pts +4 8. Heredia 7 pts +2
Group 1: 1. Houston: 10 points, +5 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2: 1. Sporting KC: 9 points, +6 2. Olimpia 3. Real Esteli Group 3: 1. Herediano: 8 points, +7 2. Cruz Azul 3. Valencia Group 4: 1. America: 12 points, +9 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5: 1. San Jose : 9 points, +4 (lose to Montreal away) 2 Montreal: 3. Heredia Group 6: 1. Toluca: 12 points, +10 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7: 1. Tijuana: 12 points, +8 2. Luis Angel Firpo 3. Victoria Group 8: 1. Los Angeles: 9 points, +5, 2. Isidro Metapan 3. Cartagines Seeds 1. Toluca - 12 pts. +10 2. America - 12 pts. +9 3. Tijuana - 12 pts. +8 4. Houston - 10 pts. +5 5. Sporting KC - 9pts. +6 6. Los Angeles - 9 pts. +5 7. San Jose - 9pts. +4 8. Herediano - 8 pts. +7
To be honest, wasn't very scientific with these as I didn't consider likely last game scenarios, and it's a bit too much work. Group 1: 1. Houston: 10 points, +5 2. Arabe Unido 3. W Connection Group 2: 1. Sporting KC: 9 pts. +4 gd (advance on away goals v. Olimpia) 1. Olimpia 9 points, +7 3. Real Esteli Group 3: 1. Cruz Azul: 12 points, + 10 2. Herediano 3. Valencia Group 4: 1. America: 10 points, +8 7 ag 2. Alajuelense 3. Sporting San Miguelito Group 5: 1. Montreal: 8 points, +3 2. San Jose 3. Heredia Group 6: 1. Toluca: 10 points, +8 4 ag 2. Comunicaciones 3. Caledonia AIA Group 7: 1. Tijuana: 10 points, +7 2. Luis Angel Firpo 3. Victoria Group 8: 1. Los Angeles: 9 points, +6, 2. Isidro Metapan 3. Cartagines Seeds 1. Cruz Azul 12 points, + 10 2. America 10 points, +8 7 ag 3. Toluca 10 points, +8 4 ag 4. Tijuana 10 points, +7 5. Houston 10 points, +5 6. Galacticos 9 points, +6, 7. Kansas City Sporting KC: 9 pts. +4 gd 8. Montreal 8 points, +3
Here are all the people who predicted a club's exact seed: blacksun: San Jose 8th ceezmad: Los Angeles 6th and Sporting Kansas City 7th Revolt: Toluca 1st StuTheriot: Toluca 1st, Tijuana 3rd, and Los Angeles 6th nlsanand: Los Angeles 6th and Sporting Kansas City 7th Here are the Group Stage Rankings results out of a possible 30 points (scores are given to three decimal places and all scores are exact to three decimal places): 1. jared9999: 24.375 Tied 2. EvanJ: 22.500 Tied 2. blacksun: 22.500 Tied 2. Revolt: 22.500 Tied 2. StuTheriot: 22.500 Tied 2. nlsanand: 22.500 7. ceezmad: 21.875 8. chapka: 18.750 The mean was 22.1875. 6 out of 8 people (75%) scored above the mean. The median was 22.500. Here are the Bracket Seeds results out of a possible 30 points (scores are given to three decimal places and all scores are exact to three decimal places): 1. blacksun: 18.750 2. StuTheriot: 17.500 Tied 3. ceezmad: 16.875 Tied 3. nlsanand: 16.875 Tied 5. EvanJ: 15.000 Tied 5. Revolt: 15.000 7. jared9999: 12.500 8. chapka: 9.375 The mean was 15.234375. 4 out of 8 people (50%) scored above the mean. The median (mean of the middle two numbers) was 15.9375. Here are the overall scores out of a possible 60 points (scores are given to three decimal places and all scores are exact to three decimal places): 1. blacksun: 41.250 2. StuTheriot: 40.000 3. nlsanand: 39.375 4. ceezmad: 38.750 Tied 5. EvanJ: 37.500 Tied 5. Revolt: 37.500 7. jared9999: 36.875 8. chapka: 28.125 The mean was 37.421875. 6 out of 8 people (75%) scored above the mean. The median (mean of the middle two numbers) was 38.125. The remaining 40% comes from the Knockout Rounds.
Here is the breakdown of the last 40% of the competition: Score predictions for each game: 14% (1% per game) Score predictions for each aggregate: 7% (1% per aggregate) Quarterfinal winners: 6% (1.5% per winner) Semifinal winners: 6% (3% per winner) Final winner: 7% Before the first Quarterfinal game starts on March 10, you must make score predictions for all eight Quarterfinal games and bracket predictions for the three remaining rounds. Here is the bracket from Wikipedia: Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals 6 Los Angeles Galaxy 3 Tijuana Winner QF3 Winner QF2 7 Sporting Kansas City 2 Cruz Azul Winner SF2 Winner SF1 5 Alajuelense 4 Árabe Unido Winner QF4 Winner QF1 8 San Jose Earthquakes 1 Toluca In case that isn't clear, the Semifinals are 6 or 3 vs. 7 or 2 and 5 or 4 vs. 8 or 1. Here are my predictions: The better seed wins every aggregate. Quarterfinal Scores: Los Angeles 1:1 Tijuana Tijuana 3:1 Los Angeles Aggregate of Tijuana 4:2 Los Angeles Sporting Kansas City 0:1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3:1 Sporting Kansas City Aggregate of Cruz Azul 4:1 Sporting Kansas City Alajuelense 1:1 Arabe Unido Arabe Unido 2:1 Alajuelense Aggregate of Arabe Unido 3:2 Alajuelense San Jose 1:2 Toluca Toluca 4:0 San Jose Aggregate of Toluca 6:1 San Jose
A couple of additional notes: 1. You must make bracket predictions for the Semifinals and Final before the Quarterfinals start. These predictions must include scores for the Quarterfinals. You can make Semifinals and Final score predictions before or after the Quarterfinals, and you can make those predictions before the Quarterfinals and change them later. Score predictions for the Semifinals or Final made before the Quarterfinals are only valid if you had both clubs in them correct. 2. Score predictions for the second leg and for the aggregate are for at the end of regulation. Therefore you are allowed to predict a tied aggregate. If you do so, specify the winner after extra time and/or penalty kicks in your Bracket Predictions.
Quarterfinal Scores: Los Angeles 2:1 Tijuana Tijuana 2:0 Los Angeles Aggregate of Tijuana 3:2 Los Angeles Sporting KC 1:1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1:1 Sporting KC Aggregate of Cruz Azul 2:2 Sporting KC (Sporting KC win in PK's) Alajuelense 0:1 Arabe Unido Arabe Unido 2:1 Alajuelense Aggregate of Arabe Unido 3:1 Alajuelense San Jose 1:2 Toluca Toluca 2:0 San Jose Aggregate of Toluca 4:1 San Jose Semifinals Arabe Unido 1:3 Toluca Toluca 3:0 Arabe Unido Aggregate of Toluca 6:1 Arabe Unido Sporting KC 2:1 Tijuana Tijuana 1:1 Sporting KC Aggregate of Tijuana 2:3 Sporting KC Final Sporting KC 2:1 Toluca Toluca 2:1 Sporting KC After a magical Sporting KC run to the final, they lose in dramatic fashion in 120+' in the second leg. Toluca are crowned CCL Champions.
Quarterfinal Scores: Los Angeles 2:0 Tijuana Tijuana 1:0 Los Angeles Aggregate of Tijuana 1:2 Los Angeles Sporting KC 1:2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2:1 Sporting KC Aggregate of Cruz Azul 4:2 Sporting KC Alajuelense 1:1 Arabe Unido Arabe Unido 1:2 Alajuelense Aggregate of Arabe Unido 2:3 Alajuelense San Jose 1:1 Toluca Toluca 2:0 San Jose Aggregate of Toluca 3:1 San Jose Semifinals Alajuelense 1:2 Toluca Toluca 3:0 Alajuelense Aggregate of Toluca 5:1 Alajuelense Cruz Azul 2:1 Los Angeles Los Angeles 1:1 Cruz Azul Aggregate of Los Angeles 2:3 Cruz Azul Final Cruz Azul 1:1 Toluca Toluca 2:1 Cruz Azul Aggregate of Cruz Azul 2:3 Toluca
@StuTheriot @blacksun The Los Angeles-Tijuana Quarterfinal winner will host the first leg of the Semifinals, not the second leg like you predicted. You can change your predictions based on that if you want.
Updated prediction (the same as before, just with the legs flipped): Los Angeles 1:1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2:1 Los Angeles Aggregate of Los Angeles 2:3 Cruz Azul
Quarterfinal Scores: Los Angeles 1:1 Tijuana Tijuana 1:0 Los Angeles Aggregate of Tijuana 2:1 Los Angeles Sporting KC 1:1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2:1 Sporting KC Aggregate of Cruz Azul 3:2 Sporting KC Alajuelense 1:0 Arabe Unido Arabe Unido 0:0 Alajuelense Aggregate of Alajuelense 1:0 Arabe Unido San Jose 1:1 Toluca Toluca 3:0 San Jose Aggregate of Toluca 4:1 San Jose Semifinals Alajuelense 1:1 Toluca Toluca 2:0 Alajuelense Aggregate of Toluca 3:1 Alajuelense Tijuana 2:1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3:1 Tijuana Aggregate Cruz Azul 4:3 Tijuana Final Cruz Azul 1:1 Toluca Toluca 1:2 Cruz Azul Aggregate Cruz Azul 3:2 Toluca They did win Copa MX so I am thinking they will win this final.
Quarterfinal Scores: Los Angeles 2:1 Tijuana Tijuana 2:0 Los Angeles Aggregate of Tijuana 3:2 Los Angeles Sporting KC 3:1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2:1 Sporting KC Aggregate of Cruz Azul 3:4 Sporting KC Alajuelense 2:0 Arabe Unido Arabe Unido 1:1 Alajuelense Aggregate of Arabe Unido 1:3 Alajuelense San Jose 1:1 Toluca Toluca 2:0 San Jose Aggregate of Toluca 3:1 San Jose Semifinals Liga 1:1 Toluca Toluca 3:0 Liga Aggregate of Toluca 4:1 Liga Tijuana 1:1 Sporting KC Sporting KC 2:1 Tijuana Aggregate of Tijuana 2:3 Sporting KC Final Sporting KC 2:1 Toluca Toluca 1:1 Sporting KC
@IASocFan The Los Angeles-Tijuana Quarterfinal winner will host the first leg of the Semifinals, not the second leg like you predicted. You can change your predictions based on that if you want.
Quarterfinal Scores: Los Angeles 3:1 Tijuana Tijuana 1:0 Los Angeles Aggregate of Tijuana 2:3 Los Angeles Sporting KC 2:0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2:1 Sporting KC Aggregate of Cruz Azul 2:3 Sporting KC Alajuelense 4:1 Arabe Unido Arabe Unido 1:1 Alajuelense Aggregate of Arabe Unido 1:5 Alajuelense San Jose 1:0 Toluca Toluca 0:1 San Jose Aggregate of Toluca 0:2 San Jose Semifinals Alajuelense 2:1 San Jose San Jose 2:0 Alajuelense Aggregate of San Jose 4:1 Alajuelense Sporting KC 2:1 Los Angeles Los Angeles 2:0 Sporting KC Aggregate of Los Angeles 3:2 Sporting KC Final Los Angeles 3:0 San Jose San Jose 5:1 Los Angeles Aggregate of San Jose 5:4 Los Angeles