Updated playoff scenarios, including how the East will be won: http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2011/10/17/playoff-scenarios-possibilities-week-32-updated ESPN has to be pretty happy with themselves for scheduling the big game in the East this week.
Again, why is that a problem? Although it has not happened yet, the #1 team in all of college basketball could conceivably be knocked off by a 16 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. An undefeated NFL team could fall to a wildcard or even to a division winner with a losing record in its first playoff game. Besides, the only difference between your scenario and what could happen this year is that the play-in winner has to score more goals than the SS winner over two legs, one of which is played at their stadium. The whole point of two-leg rounds is to minimize home-field advantage, which is why the Champions Leagues use them. Personally, I think that skipping the midweek games and playing only at home would be a significant reward for the two first-place teams.
Not the same. And not true. Most of the time, the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tourney faces a play-in game winner, so they don't play them in the tournament's first round. And you don't have the same parity in college basketball that you do in MLS. The gulf between the top overall seed in the NCAA tourney and the bottom 16 seed is exponential compared to the difference between 1 and 8 in MLS. And in the NFL the top seed in each conference gets a bye in the first round. Just like they do in MLS now. I don't necessarily like the two-leg system now (actually, i do, but i wish all rounds were two-legs), but at least the top overall seed is rewarded with a bye through the first round. And I think the advantage the top seed has of playing a wild card team on their third game in 7 days (and subsequent 4th in 10 days, on the road) is higher than waiting 7 days and playing a fresh opponent.
Um, this is exactly what I am proposing for MLS. The two #1 seeds would skip the initial midweek matchday and face the play-in (wildcard) game winners. Absolutely true; but to me, this just makes it all the more important to give a legitimate home-field advantage to the two #1 seeds, instead of making them go on the road for their first playoff games. In the NFL, the top two teams in each conference get a first-round bye. In MLS now, the top three teams in each conference skip the initial midweek matchday. My proposal would give this benefit only to the two #1 seeds. Huh? The #1 seeds would still play wildcard teams on their third game in 7 (or 8) days after getting a week off themselves. They just would have a single home game instead of a two-leg round that starts on the road. Maybe what I am suggesting is not entirely clear. Using the current standings, here is what my schedule would be this year. Wed-Thu 10/26-27 New York (#10) at Dallas (#7) Houston (#9) at Colorado (#8) Philadelphia (E2) at Columbus (E3) Seattle (W2) at RSL (W3) Sat-Sun 10/29-30 Lower-seeded wildcard winner at Los Angeles (W1, SS) Higher-seeded wildcard winner at SKC (E1) Columbus (E3) at Philadelphia (E2) RSL (W3) at Seattle (W2) Sat-Sun 11/05-06 Lower-seeded winners at higher-seeded winners Sun 11/20 Winners at the Home Depot Center
I think I got all the potentials seedings depending on finish, correct me if I'm wrong. Sporting KC win - finish first if they equal or better Philadelphia's result (example Philly wins 1-0, KC wins 1-0, 2-1, 2-0) - finish second if they do not equal Philadelphia's result (example Philly wins 2-0, KC wins 1-0) Sporting KC draw - finish first if Philly loses or draws (as long as it's not a draw by more than 5 clear goals than KC's, ex Philly 5-5, KC 0-0), and Columbus loses, the Houston result won't matter as a 3 way tie between KC, Philly, and Houston, Houston loses the head-to-head tie breaker against those two. - finish second if Philly wins (or draws by 5 clear goals over KC's draw), and Columbus loses. OR if Philly loses or draws and Columbus wins. - finish third if Philly wins (or draws by 5 clear goals over KC's draw) AND Columbus wins. Once again Houston's result won't matter as KC wins head-to-head with the Dynamo. Sporting KC lose - finish first if Philly loses by more than KC does, Columbus loses, and Houston does not win. - finish second if Philly wins or draws, or loses by less than KC does and Columbus loses or draws (as long as KC's loss isn't by 9), and Houston does not win. OR if Philly loses by more than KC does, Columbus draws and Houston does not win. - finish third if Philly wins or draws, Columbus wins, and Houston does not win. OR if Philly loses by less than KC does, Columbus draws, and Houston doesn't win. - finish in second wild card spot if Philly wins or draws, Columbus wins, Houston wins, and Colorado does not win - finish in third wild card spot if Philly wins or draws, and Columbus, Houston, and Colorado win.
Corrected. These scenarios get really complicated and hard to follow just because there are so many potential combinations. For example, if SKC and Philadelphia lose and Columbus draws, the Crew wins the three-way tiebreaker. I would summarize it this way. If SKC loses, then SKC finishes: - first if Philadelphia loses by an equal or greater margin, Columbus loses, and Houston draws or loses. - second if Philadelphia wins, draws, or loses by a smaller margin, Columbus loses, and Houston draws or loses. - second if Philadelphia loses by an equal or greater margin, Columbus wins or draws, and Houston draws or loses. - second if Philadelphia loses by an equal or greater margin, Columbus loses, and Houston wins. - third if Philadelphia wins, draws, or loses by a smaller margin, Columbus wins or draws, and Houston draws or loses. - third if Philadelphia wins, draws, or loses by a smaller margin, Columbus loses, and Houston wins. - third if Philadelphia loses by an equal or greater margin, Columbus wins or draws, and Houston wins. - fourth if Philadelphia wins, draws, or loses by a smaller margin, Columbus wins or draws, and Houston wins; eighth overall (home wildcard game) if Colorado loses or draws, ninth overall (away wildcard game) if Colorado wins. As usual, I am assuming that no massive blowouts or high-scoring draws change the current goal differential and goals scored tiebreakers. Obviously the list of possibilities will narrow considerably once Thursday's outcome is known, and the simplest solution is for SKC to throttle DC on Saturday night!
I follow better now. Still doesn't fix the problem of a bad team sneaking in the playoffs at #10 and playing negative soccer on the road for two straight games and suddenly being 90 minutes away from lifting the Cup. Hell, they could play for 0-0 and penalties and advance. New York could get into the playoffs this year with nearly 30 fewer points than LA, but the Galaxy could be gone in one game? No thank you. Make the bad teams earn it over two legs. Especially after a wild card game mid-week. There's just no way I could get behind a system that has the Supporters' Shield winner in a spot where a fluke could knock them out right away. I don't necessarily think they get enough of an advantage as it is... this would be even worse.
But they can do that now; they just have to do it for three straight games, one of which is at home. And if they happen to win at home, they can play for 0-0 on the road and advance without having to go to penalties. Again, this could effectively happen in the current system, if New York wins its home game by a significant margin. I respectfully disagree--I think that having a single home game is a much bigger advantage than hosting the second leg of a home-and-home series. There is no perfect solution, and MLS obviously wanted to have two more playoff games this year than in the past.
Rats, I just found a couple of mistakes in that earlier post. Let me start over--here is how I would break down all of the scenarios, assuming no massive blowouts or high-scoring draws. SKC finishes first if: - SKC wins and PHL wins by an equal or smaller margin or draws or loses. - SKC draws, PHL draws, and CLB draws or loses. - SKC loses, PHL loses by an equal or greater margin, CLB loses, and HOU draws or loses. SKC finishes second if: - SKC wins and PHL wins by a larger margin. - SKC draws, PHL wins, and CLB draws or loses. - SKC draws, PHL draws or loses, and CLB wins. - SKC loses, PHL wins or draws or loses by a smaller margin, CLB loses, and HOU draws or loses. - SKC loses, PHL loses by an equal or larger margin, CLB wins or draws, and HOU draws or loses. - SKC loses, PHL loses by an equal or larger margin, CLB loses, and HOU wins. SKC finishes third if SKC loses and: - PHL wins or draws, CLB wins, and HOU draws or loses. - PHL wins or draws, CLB draws or loses, and HOU wins. - PHL loses by a smaller margin, CLB wins or draws, and HOU draws or loses. - PHL loses by a smaller margin, CLB loses, and HOU wins. - PHL loses by an equal or larger margin, CLB wins or draws, and HOU wins. SKC finishes fourth if SKC loses and: - PHL wins or draws, CLB wins, and HOU wins. - PHL loses by a smaller margin, CLB wins or draws, and HOU wins. SKC is seeded eighth overall if SKC finishes fourth and COL draws or loses. SKC is seeded ninth overall if SKC finishes fourth and COL wins. So, barring a perfect storm--five results all going the wrong way--SKC will host at least one playoff game at LSP. It takes four bad outcomes to keep SKC out of the top three.
man, this thread does my head in trying to read it. i can't imagine trying to do all the work to write it. credit to those of you who've taken the time to figure it all out, but i'm just gonna let the pieces fall where they may and not worry about what could've been one way or another... unless it goes bad, of course, and then i'll want someone's head on a pike!!!
Yeah -- it should not be this ********ing taxing. Just gonna look at it Saturday and make a note of where I am going when on my calendar.
I just hope they schedule any home playoff games for evening starts. It's brutal to have mid-afternoon games during youth soccer season.
I wonder how this will affect parking as well....they have had to move people normally in lots A, B, and D for afternoon games. I hope we will be getting parking passes for the two games in the STH package. That free-for-all parking deal really sucks.
I'd rather have mid-afternoon games as the weather is getting colder, having the sun up will keep more people coming to games.
Referring to bolded portion, I was under the impression that it was total goals scored over the season that counted in a tie not win margin in the last game. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure that if we win we are pretty much 1st because of the ammount of goals we have scored in the season.
Head to Head is the first tie breaker. KC & Philly tied twice this season. Goal differential is the 2nd tie breaker. Right now we are even. Goals scored is the 3rd tie breaker. Since head to head won't change, it goes to goal differential... thus, whoever wins by a larger margin.
Correct. Which, in theory, means the likelihood of a draw in the Philly/NY game goes up. A draw tomorrow night would mean that KC would only need a draw saturday to clinch a top 2 spot in the east (KC owns the H2H tiebreaker w/ Houston, so even a houston win sunday sees KC in 1st or 2nd, pending the Columbus result).
I really hope that we can win the conference and end up playing Colorado. I think they are very beatable and it would make an easy road trip. Anyone else thinking of making the trip if it is somewhere within an 8 hour drive or so. Unfortunately, i don't think I can justify a trip with flight at the moment but a short road trip is something I am hopeful in making if we end up playing October 29th or 30th on the road.
Some of us are already planning the impending road trip. I want Dallas or Columbus based strictly off the fact of fast food/coffee chains in each metro that I need to hit up again. Sporting Big Bellies!