positive factors for attendance this year: philly's new team/stadium NYRB's new stadium Seattle increasing capacity Toronto increasing capacity World Cup something that might help RSL this season (i say this only as a fan): there is only 1 home game in the first month and a half. RSL has had historically poor early season attendance numbers due to several factors, including weather and the fact that RSL has a large percentage of kids/family ticket holders on any given game day. having only 1 home game in the first 5 games means that the meat of RSL's home schedule will happen after the weather becomes nicer and kids get out of school for the summer. hopefully winning the MLS cup last season helps bump the numbers a little bit up as well, but i think it will be minor to be honest. the question marks for the MLS season: the galaxy without beckham for the whole season and donovan for a majority of the season. what will teams like colorado, dallas, kansas, san jose, chivas, and new england look like? i would expect averages from 9k-13.5k from all those teams. what will attendance from the normal stalwarts of DC, chicago, houston and columbus look like?
A few people have already mentioned the World Cup bump. Now, my memory is crap, especially for things that only happen every four years, but I don't remember there being any solid statistical evidence of a World Cup bump. Now, I suppose there's a chance that whatever national teams have MLS players on them might do well, and MLS might successfully get fans to show up to games after the World Cup with the 'Come see player X from the World Cup team Y that wowed in South Africa' sales pitch. But I seriously doubt that will make as much of a nudge in the attendance as several other factors. Then again, if there are some games that have start times right after a knock-out round World Cup game and teams open up their parks for a 'double-header', that could make a bit of a difference. Still, I wouldn't count on the World Cup to do much of anything. But maybe I've lost the story, things have really changed in the US for soccer, and this World Cup will have an effect.
It appears that you can count on an extra 500-900 fans in a world cup year. NYRB and Philly are the biggest unknowns. SOB and RBA are both great and all but they don't fill and stadium, or get people to fill one in RBA's case. If they can both average 18K I think 17,000 is very reachable. Which would be just ahead of the NBA, 16993 and right about even with the NHL, 17,476. Now just to get the TV revenue up...
Ok geek post: If NYRB and Philly average 18K, and RSL gets 500 extra people, with their summer weighted schedule and a championship this is reasonable. Factoring in Seattle and Toronto's increased capacity. The league would get 16,910 fans. With a WC bump and hopefully increased attendance in Colorado 17,000-17,500 seems very much within reach.
Do you have a source/link for that? Thanks for the napkin calculations. Don't know how much of an effect it'll have but San Jose's attendance was boosted by a couple games away from their main home field, making it possible for them to go solidly above 10k. I'm expecting that they won't get as much as they did last year. They'll only be playing LA once for starters. Anyone know if they'll be playing at the baseball stadium again this year? Just skimming around for teams who's attendance is likely to drop. And San Jose's, with their stadium size limit, is one that could drop substantially. With all the rest... it could be a wash. Then again, with the economy still sputtering, all of them could drop yet again. But I sure hope Dallas and Colorado at least stabilize.
San Jose plays in an SSS. Unfortunately, it was a former baseball stadium that's been converted to an SSS for a school of less than 5,000 students. They will play the Galaxy at that stadium. I don't know why, since they get at least 17k when playing the Galaxy in Oakland even without Beckham.
They probably need to draw like 28K or something to make renting that stadium and hiring on extra staff worthwhile. These events cost money to produce, you know.
In 2002, MLS experienced, to that point, the 2nd highest median attendance in its history. In 2006, after a down year, MLS again experienced, to that point, the 2nd highest median attendance in its history. Causation or coincidence? We could argue that for days, but to say that the World Cup doesn't give any bump? Doesn't sound logical to me, and history doesn't support your opinion.
Ya I just looked at the difference between the year before a world cup verses the year of a world cup. It seems to be around 500-900 extra in the world cup years. The chart is on the first post.
The 2002 data is significantly tainted. In the off season between 2001 and 2002, MLS contracted two of its worst drawing teams in Miami and Tampa. That alone accounted for the majority of the bump in 2002.
For what its worth, here are the main factors that will come into play in Colorado this year (good and bad): Management changing focus from families (4 mascots) to more soccer savvy adults (north terrace). The World Cup Team's performance. Having a shitty team for so long has been taking its toll. Sure, season tickets have been up every year since they moved to Dick's, but that increase have been minute compared to the overall drop in attendance. Weather. It's always played a factor, but we really got hosed last year. Games not on a Saturday. We have four right now. First is a Sunday afternoon game (which in the past has been nothing but a colossal waste of time) against Toronto. Next is a Wednesday match against LA (which should sell well regardless). Next is New York on the 4th of July (guaranteed sellout). And finally a Wednesday game against Philly (I'm guessing it will sell poorly).
As for the World Cup bump, I think it could be significant. A couple factors. 1) The media coverage will be off the charts, by American standards. 2002 caught people by surprise. 2006, although a crap year for the US, was a very good year for ESPN. 2) No more MLS during the tournament. No more conflict of interests for fans, no more crippled teams. MLS can focus on pouncing on the soccer zeitgeist once play resumes. 3) Good chance of US success. Nothing is a given, but it's as good of a draw as you can ask for, frankly. The possible second round match ups are all nightmares, but just making the second round puts the US playing on the 27th. That would be two solid weeks of US soccer propaganda, which could only help MLS. 4) Twitter. I'm serious. Don't laugh. Look at the viewership numbers for "event" television since Twitter exploded. The Emmys, Grammys, AMAs, and Oscars all saw big increases, some of them massively so. This reverses the trend of those types of shows all declining at a rapid rate. The reason for reversal is predominantly social media. People treat them as a sort of country-wide joke fest. It's very communal. I even watched the Golden Globes this year, something I've never done, just because it's fun to experience something with a bunch of people in real time. The World Cup is likely to have the same sort of attraction. If you want some idea of what I'm talking about, the next time March Madness is on, go on Twitter, even if you don't have an account, and in the box that says "See what people are talking about" type in the name of one of the teams. Or if someone gets a crucial block in the game, type in "block", and see how many dozens or hundreds of people instantly comment on the same thing. It's very strange, but it appears to bump viewership numbers up. Of course this only matters for MLS if you believe in the "good for soccer = good for MLS" theory. Which I do. Sorry for the rant. Finally, the economy. This isn't WC-bump, but it is important. Not looking good for a rapid recovery, but it's fairly stable at this point. Perhaps more people will be willing to drop a couple hundred on tickets this year, since the rampant fear has subsided somewhat.
There's a difference between memory and opinion. As I said, my memory is crap. My opinion, on the other hand, is flawless. With only three data points to work off of (the MLS was around in '98, I wonder why no-one's mentioning data from that year), it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
...except that there will be MLS during the tournament, of course. The league likes to talk about their "world cup break" but there will still be twenty-four games during the tournament, including one on the day of the World Cup final. The conflicts will be reduced but not eliminated. And that means that if the US makes the second round, they will be going head to head on their Round of 16 date against either five MLS games (if they win the group) or two MLS games (if they come in second).
Second place seems more likely. And wouldn't that game be at 7am Pacific/ 10am Eastern? Doesn't sound like a conflict to me.
I hope that the Fire gets over 15K this season. But with Blanco gone, many of my fellow Mexican fans may stay away. Also If De los Cobos doesn't play Krol then the polish fans will probably continue to stay away. We will see, but I am not optimistic.