2008 MLS: Week 1

Best odds available in format (Home Team Odds/Draw/Road Team Odds):

Bet $1 and return the amount shown if you get the right result. Ex: $10 on Chicago to win away would return $29 for a $19 net win.

Sat Mar 29 18:00 Salt Lake vs. Chicago 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.90 odds

Sat Mar 29 18:00 Columbus vs. Toronto 1.85 l 3.35 l 4.50 odds

Sun Mar 30 17:00 New England vs. Houston 2.30 l 3.25 l 3.25 odds

Sun Mar 30 17:00 Dallas vs. Chivas 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.82 odds

Sun Mar 30 17:00 Colorado vs. Los Angeles 2.45 l 3.25 l 2.82 odds

Sun Mar 30 17:00 Kansas City vs. DC United 2.70 l 3.25 l 2.60

 

Hi everyone, welcome back to my attemp to pick apart the sportsbooks for fun and profit. My offering here will always be 1 unit for every game with a unit being a theorhetical $10. My betting with actual cash varies a little but not much as in life I might leave out several games, etc. Where I deviate I usually make a note of it.

Here are my "results" for all '07 games picked including playoffs (+/- in dollars)
W L (+/-)
NY 13 17 8.0
CHI 14 17 25.7
HOU 18 15 54.5
LA 13 16 -32.8
COL 10 20 -75.5
KC 14 16 10.5
DC 15 14 67.5
NE 16 14 35.2
CMB 11 18 -7.9
RSL 13 14 -20.0
CHV 17 15 70.2
TOR 18 11 40.3
DAL 16 15 24.8
94 101 200.5

As you can see, Colorado befuddled me last year and preetty much has forever. They look competent and just don't win when I pick them and do win when I'm against. It's unreal. KC also gives me some fits which lends creedence to the proverb of betting with your brain and not your heart.

You should also notice that although my record is sub-.500 there was ample profit to be made. More than enough to overcome not being able to bet every sportsbook for the absolute best odds week to week in reality.

Again, stay away from parlays and props - even when you win, it's mathematically unsound to chose that over just betting individual games originally.

Good luck in 2008!

Week 1, as mentioned there's limited info - never the best situation in betting. Draws are much more common early and late in the season. I rarely buck the bad odds to pick draws.

Columbus vs. Toronto 1.85 l 3.35 l 4.50 odds

Easy pick for me. Not only does everything about the preview and other articles tell me Toronto isn't an organized team yet, but until TOR can prove they can win on the road (with a good contingent of travelers or not) there isn't any reason to pick them. 8 straight losses for the Leafs and 0 wins in the last 10 away games. If you need other reasons, Hesmer in net has been solid for CLB in the pre-season. TOR also has no answer for CLB's midfield, and teams wins their home openers generally, especially so against bottom dwellers.
CLB@1.85

Sat Mar 29 18:00 Salt Lake vs. Chicago 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.90 odds

RSL has little, didn't improve much, hasn't ever beaten Chicago, KC shut out RSL last weekend on few shots, and Blanco had a full pre-season. Chicago by contrast, has all of their injured players from '07 returning fairly healthy (Mapp, Pause, Rolfe), added Frankowski, and has a franchise history of beating on middling teams. I don't know that RSL can rise to "middling", even for an opener in the mountains. This is my blowout special this weekend. RSL's only saving grace is the turf as preseason fitness should mitigate the altitude some. I don't think that will be nearly enough.
CHI@2.9

Sun Mar 30 17:00 New England vs. Houston 2.30 l 3.25 l 3.25 odds

#2 at #1. This is what you want isn't it? This should be the National game. This should be on PTI's first 5 minutes. But, noooooo, 7 hours of CBB rehash is a much better usage of airtime. {sigh} Anyway, weather to me isn't a factor as both teams have spent the last month in warm climates. NE hasn't beaten HOU in NE yet. If you believe in law of averages, NE gets attractive. I don't believe in that in non-random events, BTW. Dice rolls? Maybe. Soccer games? Um, no. To me, the big difference in this other than NE at home in an opener is that HOU has a quality midfield especially wide, and NE has injuries and international absences out wide so they will have fill-ins. Wide is a large part of waht HOU does anyway; likely they will accentuate that Saturday. Should be good enough. Ching also has a history of getting out of the game strong in every season, where Twellman shades towards the opposite. Champs at 3.25 pretty much says jump on that immediately, even @ NE.
CHAMPS@3.25

Dallas vs. Chivas 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.82 odds
Game of the week in the West, no doubt. Preki's guys have had to live with losing to KC without any forwards for a long long time. This is the get-right game. DAL will be better with a full strength Toja and Cooper, both injured late last year. Draw has merit, but I like Preki's men to get on it and steal some April retribution for Octobers' ill luck. The difference here should be the "minor" advantages that lead to fouls in tight. There are too many capable guys on the field to not have some highlight quality free finished. The last team to do so wins here. I like Chivas to be that team and spoil PHP's opener. A red wouldn't shock me here either.
CHV@2.82

Man, 3 road picks of 4. I must be nuts!

Colorado vs. Los Angeles 2.45 l 3.25 l 2.82 odds
OK, LA still has no defence. Colorado has added almost everywhere. Injuries are a concern for Colorado as 2 of the back 4 are likely out. That makes the OVER a nice play except that 1-0 is a common scoreline in Commerce City. On balance I like Colorado as altitude does have a greater effect here than in RSL for some reason. Also, Ruiz for LA hasn't been highly effective as yet, Becks and LD are returning from Nat duty. LD famously has let-downs consistently after Nat camps and before Qualifyer Nat camps, especially away. LA without a strong LD is basically RSL. I will continue to bet that to good effect. Another reason may be your view of Rudd Gullit. He may know his team, maybe not, but for certain he doesn't know squat about anyone else yet. That may linger for weeks or so.
COL@2.82

Kansas City vs. DC United 2.70 l 3.25 l 2.60

Opener for the temporary home at the CAB in KC, Kansas. Yuck. I hate Kansas, but this park should be a marked improvement on the temp sites of both Dallas and Chicago. I detailed two stats on the KC/DC pre-game thread worth repeating here. No established MLS team has EVER lost a home-opener in a new building. EVER. Both other temporary homes opened to draws. KC is missing Sealy and Davy up top and other guys have a knock here and there. Olsen and Moreno are less than full strength for DC. DC is favored, but I'm not sure why. 5-0 wins vs caribbean rec champions do not impress me. Having a mostly new line-up doesn't either. KC won this match-up 4-2 last year at RFK to open '07. DC will liikely use that at some point for motivation. KC has failed recently only when completely outclassed or when other teams refuse to run with them. DC's South American heavy line-up will dictate the game into KC-friendly terms, I believe, as this benefits all KC danger men. DC must hack it up to win here and I'm not sure they will do that to start a season. This knowing full well that the absolute worst watch in MLS is any random DC road game. In a week they might, maybe, but not now. Put that with the opener history and I like KC in a toss-up type game. Lastly, KC has a long history (*going back to Digital in '96) of new-to-the-team forwards scoring their first time in blue. KC has two new forwards that will see time. Trujillo will score. The over should be good as well for both styles and a pace friendly temperature Sat night.
KC@2.7

I might be in trouble, 3 road picks of 4 and I'm taking both bogey teams in KC and COL. I'm either in the tank or going 5 for 6. We'll see.

Bonus: Sydney Swans over Port Adelade Power in the Sydney Cricket Ground Opener in the Australian Rules Football League (AFL). Port has issues, the most notable of them is a habit of tanking when they have to fly to the East coast. The SCG will be rockin', the red will be in full bloom, and I look for the Swan studs to kick straight at the posts of the smaller confines of the SCG after being handled at St. Kilda a week ago. Sydney will overturn yet another 2 point road loss to open the '08 season. Go Swans!

Smart bets.

 

As I mentioned there are solid reasons for that with TOR away.

 

Congratulations, you made an excellent decision and are a winner! My birthday is Oct 1st if you'd like to send a card...

Postmortem Sat: 3-2 Up 2.37 units (plus a good bit on the Swans to cover)

KC - I gave you the goalscorer, hard to do better than that. Like I said, forwards in blue the first time score. Trujillo and Lopez added to the list of KC forwards. What I missed in the homework was that DC plays the CONCACAF Cup Tuesday and sat some people. That's an obvious miss for me, but as it turned out, everything else was dead on. KC was clasier. KC had the better asthetics, the better tactics, and the better execution. Hartman is ridiculously fit and made one first half save I'm not sure he makes last year. Both teams turned it over in their own end way too much. Old Teams don't lose first time in a new building, period. The record is X-0-4.

COL- Predictable. LA flat dominated in every way by the rampant 'Pids. LD with the night off. LA had little team D and less speed. Xavier with a red down 0-4 and upa man at the time. Ouch. Colorado, by contrast, put up some ridiculous O. Hard to tell who was more responsible for it though, COL's good play or LA tanking it. LA needs speed, a defense, a coach, a GM, some youth with brains, and a GK. Other than that they are fine.

HOU - Ouch. Sometimes you are just wrong. I said TT wouldn't be a factor. Turns out he was, he was injured pre-game and scratched in favor of the man of the match, who dominated all :90 and got the third goal. No way to catch that obviously. I dropped two homework footballs here also, however. One was that this game was shockingly the first ever season opener for NE at Gillette. All others have been away. As we now, teams don't lose those types of games. Oops. Also, Davis was left home with an injury for HOU. I love his transformative play and he was a large reason I liked HOU in this game. Can't say for certain I change my mind here, but those two things were too big to just miss. Pre-season form for me apparently...

CHI - This one is very surprising. CHI is on a huge unbeaten run in MLS reg. sea. play. Check the stats. RSL dominated reverything right up until the part where the ball found Blanco in front of net seconds before the whistle. Apparently RSL has something for the rest of MLS...at least at home. Unless you have a better read, you might want to shy away from both teams until some things become established.

CLB - Expected win at home vs a team (TOR) that has lost 11 straight road games and has just one win in 16 roadies. Both teams had danger moments and CLB is probably flattered a little by the score. BTW, Hesmer, a man I mentioned, saved a pk to end the first half.

Also, I hit the Bonus for you. My Swans demolished a hapless Port Adelade by a robust 11 goals and 2 behinds (68 huge points) in a physically pounding 146-78 demolition in front of red-clad partisans at the SCG tonight. Who da man?!? Thank you.

I hit CHV later today and this is a great week. Hope your weekend is as good or better. Go Preki's.

 

Postmortem SUN: Chivas peppered Dallas' net with 22 shots and could only manage a late draw. I didn't think the margin of play would be so highly tilted in Chivas' favor, but sometimes you lose bets. That's sports. At some point in early season games, I need to either incorporate picking draws directly or going with the "Asian" pick of win result plus draw result for a lower return. Disappointing. Still an OK week. 3 losses, 2 on draws and 1 on the Champions, all with great odds on offer. Right now, I'd take 33 more weeks just like that.

One thing to draw from the game is that Chivas' odds should be very low - especially at HDC - going forward. It might be tough to make money on Preki's men.