Mods....if there isn't a thread on this already, this might be a good one to sticky. I did some analysis last night after getting home from the US-Canada game, based on player appearances in WC qualifying and in the Gold Cup. I did not include friendlies of the qualifiers against Grenada. This leaves a total of 13 matches to date. Here are my conclusions: In if they are healthy (13): Keller Howard Bocanegra Cherundolo Pope Donovan Beasley Reyna O'Brien Mastroeni Lewis McBride Johnson That leaves ten spots open, nine for field players, and one for the third keeper. I am assuming Bruce will choose a total of 8 defenders, 8 midfielders, 4 strikers, and 3 keepers, with Donovan being classified as an attacking mid, not a striker. Likely in (5): Gibbs Onyewu Berhalter Hedjuk Wolff Fighting for the last four spots: Convey Vanney Ralston Dempsey Zavagnin Ching Noonan On the outside looking in: Sanneh Armas Mathis Casey Twellman
Hmmm. It's too early to tell but I'll bite and look at your list. Your biggest surprise at lock is: Bocanegra who has a good chance but has at least two if not four players ahead of him in central defense. (Gibbs, Onyewu, Pope, possibly Conrad) He's probably a likely but that depends on his left back play which ain't too good. Pope is also a likely not a lock but is a strong likely. Now your likely's: Gooch and Gibbs are probably locks- they are probably the starting central defenders in Germany. Berhalter is on the outside at the moment. Hedjuk is close to a lock given his versitility at positions that the team is weak in. Wolff is hard to guage. I'd put him as likely too but I could see players pushing him off the squad in a year's time more than any other likely. Maybe slide him to "fighting" along with Ching and Noonan. Now your fighting for the last four spots: Zavagnin is on the outside and probably Armas is ahead of him, though also probably on the outside. Dempsey and Ralston are likelys. Add in Quaranta to the fighting list. If for Vanney it's mainly a matter of getting his fitness up to play LB (as Arena aluded to in the podcast) than he's a likely. If so he should improve by the end of the GC. If not... Add Conrad to the fighting list- he's probably ahead of Berhalter at this point. Add Olsen and Davis to the outside list. Also if the outside list includes all players who just miss the cut for Germany and get put on the alternates list, remove Mathis please and you could probably add a few others (Gaven for instance).
This talk is all way way too early. At this point in qualifying 4 years ago, Beasley hadn't even been capped and Donovan was still not yet a major factor for the team. There is still a lot of time for others to emerge. I think Dempsey is improving daily. The jury is still out on JOB and whether or not he can be the player he was before injuries.
Assuming everyone is healthy- Goalies (3)- Keller, Howard, Hahnemann Defenders (8)- Bocanegra, Cherundolo, Gibbs, Onyewu, Pope, Mastroeni, Berhalter, Convey Midfield (8)- Renya, O'Brien, Beasley, Lewis, Dempsey, Noonan, Armas, Ralston Forwards (4)- McBride, Johnson, Donovan, Wolff Alternates- Goalies- Thornton, Busch Defenders- Conrad, Vanney, Hejduk Midfield- Zavagnin, Quaranta, Jones, Olsen Forward- Gaven, Ching
I had Spector in my alternate list and if I was manager he would be on it, but knowing Bruce, Spector isn't going to make the alternate list unless he starts 15 plus games for Charlton. Experience is a huge plus for Bruce.
Keller, Howard, Hahnemann Churundolo, Gibbs, Onyewu, Bocanegra, Spector, Pope, Marshall, Hejduk Mastroeni, Beasely, Donovan, O'Brien, Reyna, Dempsey, Lewis, Noonan Johnson, McBride, Wolff, Ching
He should get those fifteen games easy. He's extremely versatile in the back, where he can play left, central, or right. And Charlton's defensive situation isn't top notch. Spector could end up being a more talented version of Heyduk.
I think that's already the case, it's just Heyduk has a ton of experience and is a work horse, but he isn't good with the ball; only good thing he did was the stepover verse the Mexicans. You may be right, if Spector earns a first team spot in Charlton he will be on the list.
Locks: Keller Dolo Bocanegra Pope Donovan Beasley Reyna O'Brien Mastroeni Lewis McBride Johnson Gibbs Gooch Heydude (hes been actually playing well lately) Thats 15 very likely inclusions. The remaining 8 spots could go to Spector Marshall Gaven Quaranta Convey Vanney (I hope to god he doesn't get in) Ralston Dempsey Zavagnin Ching Noonan Mathis Casey Twellman Two of those spots will of course go to a backup keeper, any of Howard, Cannon, or Marcus will do. I think our backline is pretty much set with possible just one or two opening left (basically who'll play LB) so for the remaining 8 you'd expect one of Convey, Spector or Vanney ('shudders') to get in, I hope for Spectore to play well for Charlton this upcoming season to make that spot his. Berhalter won't get in unless someone goes down our CB position is pretty deep (Boca, Pope, Gooch, Gibbs), Conrad and Sanneh are probably in the same boat as Berhalter, were just deep in our CB position. Then we have the other most discussed topic as far as postions go with RM, we got Ralston, Q1 or possibly Gaven or Dempsey. The smart way to go would be taking one of the youngins, Ralston is a fine player to play against Concacaf opponents but he'll get torched against stronger competition. To much doubt over whose better or whose form will improve/drop so its still up in the air at RM. Not much left for debate in every other position, I think every has an idea of who'll start and where (Donovan, Beasley, EJ, etc), so the rest of the spots will likely go to whoever is in good form next summer. Players who definitely shouldn't be considered are Armas, Sanneh, and Jones.
The way I see it: Locks (if healthy of course): Keller, Howard (may not be #2, but he'll be on the squad), Pope, Bocanegra, Onyewu, Gibbs, Cherundolo, Beasley, Donovan, O'Brien, Reyna, Mastroeni, Lewis, Johnson, McBride That leaves 8 open spots, and I see them breaking down as follows: 1. Backup/3rd-string GK - Probably Hahnemann, but Cannon and a few others also have a shot 2. LB - Hejduk is holding this spot right now, but everything depends on how Spector does with Charlton. If he's a first-team fixture and plays well, Spector gets the nod here (unless Arena decides to bring him as a CB instead--see below). Convey and Vanney will also be considered here, as will Burgiaca and Dunivant if they continue to perform well in MLS, but at the end of the day I expect this to come down to Hejduk vs. Spector. That said, if Arena really wants Hejduk on the team and if Spector performs too strongly at Charlton to ignore, both guys could go at the expense of a CB or MF 3. CB - Berhalter, Marshall, Conrad, Califf, and Robinson are competing for this spot, as is Spector if he doesn't go as a LB. Berhalter is in the lead right now but I expect Marshall to overtake him in the winter friendlies 4. Central MF - Dempsey's spot to lose, he'll be in unless his development stalls catastrophically. If the worst happens expect Zavagnin to take this spot. Another guy who has virtually no chance to make the team if everyone's healthy, but who could be capable of contributing if we suffer injuries and therefore I'd like to see get a few looks in friendlies, is Pete Vagenas. 5, 6. Wingers - Arena will be looking for versatility here more than anything else. Tough to see anyone taking this spot unless they can play at least one position other than their preferred wing (whether it's the other wing, central MF, or up top). Noonan will likely take one of these spots; Ralston is holding the other right now but could easily be (and almost certainly will be) supplanted by Quaranta, Klein, Gaven, or Davis. Brian Mullan is another guy who, if he can stay healthy and continue to perform well in MLS, will be hard to ignore; his versatility (he's played RM and RB in the past; could play LM; and played F in the past, although he wasn't very good, and could do so again in an emergency) and end-to-end energy are reminiscent of a yougner Frankie Hejduk and he'll certainly get a look in the winter friendlies. 7,8. Strikers - With Donovan a lock, Dempsey a near-lock, and Noonan and Quaranta (who could easily start our first game as striker) with very good chances to make the team as MFs there's little reason to take more than 4 guys who are actually listed as strikers. Ching was easily our #3 striker and was pushing McBride for a starting role before suffering 2 consecutive serious injuries; he'll be back for the playoffs and, if he does well there and in winter friendlies, he has a very good chance to make the team. Josh Wolff also gets in for the speed and energy he provides off the bench. I don't believe Wolff is still an international-caliber starter but he has enough left in the tank to be a valuable weapon as a sub. Taylor Twellman will be vying for one of these spots but first he needs to get healthy and prove he isn't the new Jason Kreis. Conor Casey is horrible and should not get another look unless he absolutely lights the Bundesliga 2 on fire during the first half of next season. Buddle is a possibility if Andrulis is ever fired and he regains his scoring touch. Quaranta could make the team here if he doesn't as a MF. Finally, not quite forgotten is Clint Mathis, who scored his first goal of the season last night. If that goals proves to be what he needed to spark his engine, we may not have heard the last of Cletus yet. I believe that in 2 weeks we'll know whether or not he has any shot to play in Germany.
If Spector gets consistent 1st team minutes at Charlton, he will be in Germany. His versatility (CB/LB) will give him a decided advantage over someone like Berhalter. I just don't see comparing Spector with Heyduk; they're completely different players. Heyduk is a physical fitness marvel, and that counts for a lot in a grueling tournament set up, so Frankie will be there.
Beasley had 2 Caps at this point 4 years ago 1/27/2001 W 2 : 1 China at Oakland, CA [Friendly ] 2/3/2001 L 0 : 1 Colombia at Miami, FL [Friendly ] Even Mastro was capped at this point 4 years ago and I think he was the last guy to be capped that made the 02 Cup roster. It will be almost impossible for a current uncapped player to make the 06 team.
Locks: Keller 2nd goalie Cherundolo Hedjuk (as backup, utility man) Gooch Pope (barring miracle) Bocanegra Gibbs O'Brien (if healthy) Donovan Mastro Reyna Beasley McBride Johnson Lewis Dempsey These 16 are ON barring injury. #17- backup DM (Zavagnin, Armas, etc. fighting it out) #18- forward (Wolff a strong candidate, likely Noonan, Ching #19- mid/forward (Noonan, Ching, and 'promising' youngsters like Quaranta, Convey, and maybe even Adu) #20- 3rd keeper... #21- final defender, particular LB (Vanney w/best shot..Convey) There is probably a lot less room on the 2006 roster than believed- barring injury.
My comparison with Spector and Frankie wasn't their technical abilities, it was their versatility, which will be crucial in a tournament such as the World Cup. Frankie can play both Right and Left Back, as well as Right mid in a pinch. Spector can play all along the backline, and can probably start for us at leftback if he gets a ton of minutes for Charlston. He can also fill in for us at centerback and on the right, if the case may be.
There's 23 roster spots...also I find it interesting that you consider "2nd keeper" a lock but "3rd keeper" is only a maybe
Oh no- the 3rd keeper is a definent. You can fill out 17-23 the way you wish. I'm just pointing out that the top 16 are likely (barring injury) already spoken for. For spots 17-23, you've got a 3-4 deep fight for most of those..
I just wanted to point out that the methodology I used in creating my original list was the number of caps a player has earned during WC qualifying and the Gold Cup over the past 12 months. Players who have received fewer than three caps during this period (encompassing 13 matches to date) are ones I give almost no chance of making the roster (excepting Reyna and JOB who have been injured).
IMO, for 23 players, 3 GK's, 8 Def's, 8 Mids, and 4 Fwds, this is who Bruce takes. Locks: GK (1) - Keller Defense (5) - Cherundolo, Bocanegra, Gibbs, Onyewu, Pope Midfield (6) - Mastroeni, Beasley, Lewis, O'Brien, Donovan, Reyna Forward (2) - Johnson, McBride Others, in order of probability: GK (2 spots left) - Cannon, Hahnemann, Howard Defense (3 spots left) - Hejduk, Convey, Vanney, Spector, Berhalter, Fraser, Marshall, Burciaga, Dunivant Midfield (2 spots left) - Dempsey, Zavagnin, Ralston, Noonan, Quaranta, Gaven Forward (2 spots left) - Wolff, Casey, Ching, Noonan, Quaranta Who I'd take: GK (3) - Keller, Cannon, Hahnemann Defense (8) - Cherundolo, Bocanegra, Gibbs, Onyewu, Pope, Hejduk, Spector, Burciaga Midfield (8) - Mastroeni, Beasley, Lewis, O'Brien, Donovan, Reyna, Dempsey, Ralston Forward (4) - Johnson, McBride, Wolff, Ching I hate not being able to bring Noonan and Gaven.
My locks (if healthy): GK - Keller D - Cherundolo, Pope, Bocanegra, Gibbs, Hejduk (Bruce loves him too much, not to take him), Onyewu (not 100% sure that he's a lock but he's a better choice than Berhalter) MF - Donovan, Beasley, JOB, Reyna, Lewis, Mastroeni F - McBride, EJ That's 15 spots taken IMHO, which leaves 8 spots available. Here's my list: Howard Hahnemann Reis Cannon Vanney Convey (not unless he has a SOLID year at Reading) Marshall Spector (hopefully, Bruce will find a way to get a good look at him) Dempsey Ralston Armas (don't laugh...Bruce loves him) Zavagnin Klein (I really think he's our best option at RM, outside of Reyna, despite his lack of "super speed") Ching (IMHO he's 99% in) Wolff Twellman Noonan That's 17 players....and I didn't include Russell (RB) or Philipakos (RM) who I would like to see get a shot.
Just realized that I left off Brad Davis & Jose Burciaga, who I truly believe should be included, though Burciaga hasn't gotten the call from Bruce. With our LACK of depth at LB & Burciaga's solid play for KC, I can't see how Bruce can't find someway to include him on the USMNT roster. Davis is probably out of luck because of the position he plays, LM. We're very strong there, with Beas, Lewis & JOB. Barring injury (God forbid), I don't see Davis getting to Germany.
How is this (if at all) changed by the 4-3-3 Il Bruce used against Canada? Interesting in that EJ plays winger for Dallas in a 4-3-3, DMB plays winger for PSV, McBride is perfect for that center spot, and a 4-3-3 doesn't require a right wing (see how Dallas plays it - with three central middies, no wingers - the wing play comes from the forwards and the wing-backs - and we know Cherundolo can attack from the back). And we've always had strength in the middle of the park - Mastroeni, JOB, Donovan, Reyna, etc. My concern about the 4-3-3, sexy as it appears at times, is that I'm not sure how effective it would be at the World Cup. Against CONCACAF? Sure. But in Europe against England, the Netherlands or whoever we play in our group? Back to the topic a bit - I think that McBride might be over the hill by next summer. Player over thirty can fall off the top pdq, unfortunately. What happens if he does? Same thing on Pope and Reyna. I take solace from the fact that EJ, DMB, Donovan, Mastroeni, (hopefully now JOB), Gibbs, Gooch, Cherundolo, Dempsey (a bit of a projection, but I think he will round out), and Keller are going to be just fine, thank you very much. Add in Pope, Reyna and McBride (they could very well and hopefully will stay on top), and that is a good group of starters. Gaven could very well blossom in time. Adu, I think, probably won't. Never say never, but the signs don't seem to be there. Spector could, but maybe not. Noonan might have something, too. Let's remember something - players like Ralston probably aren't going to be good enough to make it across the pond. Steve is doing well in CONCACAF, but it is a whole different animal over there. And I expect Il Bruce to use his entire roster again, like last time. So no charity spots.
-----------E. Johnson------B. McBride------------ --------------------L. Donovan-------------------- -----J. O'Brien--------------------D. Beasley----- --------------------C. Dempsey------------------- J. Spector--C. Gibbs--O. Onyewu--S.Cherundolo ---------------------K. Keller-----------------------
Everyone seems to be very high on Spector, with good reason. My question, though, is why didn't Bruce call him up for the Gold Cup? The fact that Bruce chose to take another look at Vanney instead tells me that he is not seriously considering Spector at this point.