Interesting stuff elsewhere... Lost In The Fog shows up this weekend in a 150K stakes race at Golden Gate Fields on Saturday-- with only 2 other opponents... Stellar matchup shaping up for the Met Mile. Ghostzapper has been pointed towards the Metropolitan Handicap as his season debut on May 30, and now it appears that Forest Danger is going to be joining him... Shaun Bridgmohan is moving his tack to Arlington Park this season. Expect him and James Graham, coming off a stellar Keeneland meet to battle for the riding title... Magna Graduate, Thor's Echo, Southern Africa, and Storm Surge headline the Lone Star Derby (G3) this weekend....
Preakness update... http://www.drf.com/tc/preakness/2005/contenders.pdf The Current field: Afleet Alex, Closing Argument, Giacomo, Golden Man, Greeley's Galaxy, Hal's Image, Malibu Moonshine, Scrappy T, Wilko. Possible entrants: A. P. Arrow, Going Wild, High Fly, High Limit, Noble Causeway, Sun King. The Preakness is limited to 14 entries. *** Richard Dutrow, Jr. says that Golden Man (five furlongs in 59.65 seconds at Aqueduct this morning) will be supplemented to the Preakness. He was last seen winning the allowance at GP that Coin Silver came out of before winning the Coolmore Lexington... Ramon Dominguez is moving from High Limit to Scrappy T, who worked a half in 48 and 2 at Delaware this morning. Jose Santos will ride Hal's Image... Also Wednesday, A.P. Arrow worked 5 panels at Churchill in a minute and 2...
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28156 Looks like Noble Causeway and Sun King are in. Galloping Grocer also will go, according to reports, and it looks like Golden Man will be the odd man out if High Fly is sent, as is expected. Bobby Frankel worked High Limit in blinkers this weekend, and if ever there was a sign they want to wire this field, that's it.
If you're waiting for my Preakness picks, well, I'm waiting to see tomorrow's weather. Expect my picks to be up by noon Eastern time. Pimlico was tough to play today. (I had a lot of exacta boxes come in-- in the 2 and 3 holes.)
Today was tricky, especially in the last four races. For me, it started off great and then unnecessarily went downhill. On Thursday night I was looking at the form and found what I thought would be a good bet-against in the 6th race with Shake You Down. He's clearly not the same horse as he was a couple years ago, although he had some lofty recent figs and loves the slop so he was sure to get bet. The clincher was that he lost a 5F race in the slop last time out at Mountaineer with absolutely no excuse. The SYD of 2003 would have crushed that field, but the 2003 version wouldn't have even been racing at Mnr in the first place. Anyway, that left two obvious players in Abondanza and Wigelia. Figuring as long as I could beat the favorite in the 6th the pick 3 would be worth playing if I hit it hard enough. In the 7th (off the turf) I used a standout that should have been 1/9 but went off at 1/2. And in the 8th I used the three logical horses. The $1 pick 3 paid $21... very fair for a 2/1, 1/2, 9/5 combination, and I played it big enough to make it worthwhile. Unfortunately, after watching a pick 3 unfold exactly the way it was envisioned and getting a juicy overlay in the process, one tends to feel invincible in the immediate aftermath. Ended up giving most of it back on races I didn't really like, including the late pick 4 at Pimlico in which I was immediately eliminated after Ashado couldn't hang on after walking around the track on an uncontested lead. Not that I would have hit it: an 88-1 shot won the last leg, and I've looked at the form four or five times and I just can't come close to even remotely making a case for the winner. I guess I'm glad I wasn't alive at the end, because when one of those beats you it forces you to rethink your involvement in this game... Alas, I'll have to wait another day before rethinking my involvement in this game. For now, here's what I'll be doing on Preakness day. I like the pick 3 that begins in the 5th at Pimlico as I think there are a couple beatable favorites in the 6th and 7th. I'll start with English Channel. Pletcher scratched him out of the Home of the Free at Belmont on Friday to go here. He looks like a future grass star and should handle this bunch if T.D. Vance isn't allowed an uncontested lead. In the 6th I'll try to beat Quick Punch. His figs are huge so he's sure to be the favorite through the pick 3, but he's 9 years old. I usually try to beat these types on principle alone, but he may not get the lead and has shown himself to be vulnerable if he doesn't, so he's a double play-against (I just made that up). Instead I'll try to beat him with the Krebs entry, Aspen Moon, Testy Guy and All Irish. Then, in the 7th, I'll play against Film Maker. She's been off for 7 months, and although she's won off a layoff in the past and has a G1 win on her resume, she's never really impressed me that much and doesn't appear to love a soft turf course, something she's likely to see on Saturday. And even though she's won at the distance before, I think it might be a tad short for her. Instead I'll use Dynamia, Path of Thunder, Briviesca, Changing World and Art Fan. To summarize: Pimlico, Race 5, $? pick 3. "3 w/1,2,4,6 w/2,3,4,6,8" In the 8th I'll probably do something revolving around beating Gators N Bears, probably with Willy O'The Valley and/or Primary Suspect. And keep an eye on Sir Oscar here, too. He could show up underneath at a nice price... I'll probably start a pick 4 in the 9th, hoping to get alive to my Preakness horses. I want to play against Better Talk Now here. His last race has come back negatively key with a couple returning to run up the track against lesser. But I also know he loves the soft turf, and was classy enough to win his last off the layoff in spite of it being a bit short for him. At anywhere near his morning line, however, I just can't play him. I can't find much wrong with Artie Schiller other than his expected low price. His Makers Mark was excellent, and he may not have even been 100%. So, do we single him? Or do we also use Cool Conductor and Good Reward, both of whom had troubled trips in the Makers Mark? I'll probably end up using all three, and if/when Artie wins it will almost feel like a loss. Whatever... In the 10th (The Sir Barton), it's tough to get a line on. I'll probably spread a bit and hope to catch a mid-priced runner who makes sense. I envision going about 4 deep here (using the 2,3,5,7), but I'll probably have a little win bet on the side for Pinpoint (#7). He never gets bet (his M/L is 6/1) and is coming off a win in a sneaky key race April 17th at Keeneland. The 5th place finisher from that race, Confederation, came back to crush a decent field of 3YO allowance horses last Saturday at Belmont. Thus, I think the figure for the April 17th allowance is on the low side... In the 11th, I'm thinking Zackocity has a great shot to go wire-to-wire. In need of a single, this is probably it. If I can get alive to the Preakness, it'll be to a bunch of horses. I'll probably throw out the 1,5,6,8 & 9 and use the rest. That's right, nine horses. If I go 3x4x1x9 in the pick 4, it's only $108. I can envision so many different scenarios that I can honestly say I have less of an idea about this race than I did about the Derby. With the Derby I had a good idea about the potential pace, and I held strong convictions about the chances (or lack thereof) of a number of horses including the favorite, I just used the wrong upsetters. But in the Preakness, there aren't a lot of potential results that will surprise me. My only conviction, other than the obvious throwing out of the new shooters with no chance, is that I don't like Scrappy T. I see him getting a lot of attention lately and I can't figure out why. Well, I understand why but I totally disagree. I wish I could book all his Preakness action. Maybe I should look into one of those online exchanges...
I understand Scrappy T's following. He's a horse who's never finished off the board, in good company. He was better than he looked in the Wood-- his saddle was slipping off. He's coming off a win in the Withers and he's a wet track specialist. If this track is good or worse, I start playing him on top.
My PublicHandicapper.com picks (You can follow my PH run of ineptitude by looking up player IanLozada): Gallorette Handicap (Pim 7th): 1. Path of Thunder 2. Film Maker 3. Changing World Third start of the form cycle, lethal connections, 3 race win streak, spotting 6 pounds to the favorite, who did not fire well off the bench after her winter layoff last season. Maryland Breeders Cup Handicap (Pim 8th): 1. Willy O' The Valley 2. Gators 'N' Bears 3. Take Achance On Me I've been a big Willy O' The Valley fan. This horse loves wet tracks, attracts Prado, should be able to either duel for or sit off the pace, and oh yeah... his trainer is an incomprehensible 45% off the claim. (Bonus pick for the Dixie-G2, not a PH.com race: Better Talk Now) Sir Barton (Pim 10th): 1. Pinpoint 2. Sunshine Stalker 3. Smokescreen I hate this race, but you have to play them all in this contest. I'm just looking for lightly raced, improving horses here, and the better price gets the nod. (Bonus pick 2, Schaefer Handicap-G3: Ouagadougou--3 wins and 2 places in 6 Pimlico tries) Preakness Stakes (Pim 12): 1. Noble Causeway 2. Closing Argument 3. High Fly Detailed analysis to follow.
I'm keeping it real simple and putting $5 across on High Fly. My Arlington Eliminator pick for today is Catalissa in the 6th.
Horses listed in order of preference. You're kidding me. You're gonna give me 10-1 and no buzz (Only one DRF picker took this horse, meaning maybe 15-1) on this horse? With a 399 wet track Tomlinson to boot? On the horse who was checked twice in the Derby? You can be certain I'll be plunking down the cash for a WP ticket for sure on Noble Causeway, no matter how I play my exactas. Closing Argument is another of those horse who merits respect. I didn't know if he had enough seasoning from the Blue Grass to make him ready for the 1 & 1/4 coming off the layoff. He was close to that brain melting Derby pace, and survived it for 10 panels. I expect a triple digit Beyer from this lightly raced horse today, and I will be playing him in both slots on exactas. Suddenly, High Fly, the ultimate under the radar horse, is the wiseguy horse. I don't know what to make of this. I hated Jerry Bailey's ride in the Derby, and I just don't know if he can get the distance. With only that one off the board finish, I'll give him a pass for Churchill. Scrappy T is coming off a G3 win, loves a wet track, and if you look at his trouble lines in the form, count how many times the word "gamely" appears. You may not find a horse with more heart in this field. Greeley's Galaxy needs a much better start than he got in Louisville. He gets a much better post, but I'm not loving the rider change (Kent Desormeaux has an extended commitment to ride in Japan). I'm still not sure what to make of this guy yet, but he belongs. So why has it taken me this long to get to the California horses considering their Derby showings? Because of the record of posts 9-14 in the Preakness, which is abysmal. In fact, no horse has won from the 13 or 14 slots since the starting gate was introduced. So, I'm shifting Giacomo, Wilko and Afleet Alex (in that order) to my "underneath" pool. Giacomo, of course, needs no excuses. Wilko bled some, so he's got an excuse, but at the same time, I'd want a longer layoff because of that. Afleet Alex was spent by the last 16th, but a review of the tape and the testimony of Jeremy Rose confirm that the horse never made the lead. I think this is the race where Tim Ritchey's two a day training technique finally catches up to a clearly exhausted horse. I want to like High Limit, I really do. Adding Prado and blinkers, main speed here, but the post and the fact that he's running back so soon after being injured in the Derby (gash)... pass. Oh dear. Sun King is a horse headed in the wrong direction, with his last 3 Beyers being steps down from the preceding race. If there's any horse in this field who cries out for a freshening, this is it. Galloping Grocer has been a beaten favorite in 3 of his 4 starts this year. He was a beaten longshot in the other. His trainer is colder than Vanilla Ice's career (3%). No, no and no. And finally, the WTF Are You Doing Here? Club: Malibu Moonshine-- Beyer top 85, he's got home field advantage and one of Maryland's legendary trainers, but he simply doesn't belong. If you use him, I assume you're using the 4 hole in the super. Hal's Image-- 2 for 16 career with a Beyer top of 85. That's not a G3 horse, let alone a classics winner. Going Wild-- there aren't enough ways to describe how much this one has ceased to be a race horse. Not completely sure how I'll play this race in the exotics. It'll be a post time decision, and I'll be nowhere near a PC.
Not sure he would have won even if he hadn't drifted out, but he ran a hell of a race. I didn't use him in the pick 4, but I had a saver on him when I got alive to the Preakness to nine other horses. As for my day, only getting nosed out by Film Maker to lose the pick 3 on races 5-7 kept it from being a near perfect day. I hit the trifecta in the 8th with Willy O'The Valley on top and managed to get Gators N Bears to run out in the process. Then I got my longest shot home in the 9th to kick off the pick 4 with Cool Conductor. My preferred runner in the 10th (Pinpoint) ran like I hoped he would and validated the April 17th key race theory. Then Zackocity got the trip he looked like he'd get on paper in the 11th, and after a few anxious moments on the far turn he pulled away easily. Once the Preakness rolled around it was just a matter of how much I was going to win. I hedged with the horses I didn't use (most notably Scrappy T), and while I was a tad disappointed that my lowest priced pick 4 horse won, it's hard to complain when it's $2400. As for the race itself, I still don't know how Afleet Alex was able to stay on his feet. For a second there I was hoping that Rose would have to steady after regaining his balance, knowing that Scrappy T would come down if that happened and AA missed 2nd. The pick 4 to Giacomo was paying twice as much as it was to Afleet Alex, and it was paying over $13,000 to Sun King. It would have been a hollow victory, but I wouldn't have given the money back. In the end it was a great win for horse and jockey, and a great story for the winning connections... Thankfully no one got hurt.
I was pissed yesterday I had the top 3 but I decided to bet the super using closing argument instead of sun king.
What can you say? Just an incredible race by Afleet Alex and Jeremy Rose. If I'm gonna get beat, that's the type of ride I want to beat me.
In non-Triple Crown related news, Sabertooth set a world record for 6 and a half furlongs in the 5th race (a $40,000 stake) at Emerald Downs on Sunday. Here are his splits. Fractional Times: 21.80, 43.20, 1:06.40, 1:13.00
I think what's incredible about that time is the opening split. 21.80? You'd think he would have run a 20.80 on his way to a world record...
DRF is reporting that the Beyer for Afleet Alex's Preakness will be listed as 112... Nick Zito will be freshening Sun King and High Fly, and says that Noble Causeway displaced his palate and will undergo a procedure this week. Bellamy Road was already scheduled to have his splint fired. Zito is likely to run Andromeda's Hero and possibly Pinpoint, the winner of the Sir Barton at the Belmont... Survivalist and Chekhov lead the field for the Peter Pan, which has produced 3 Belmont winners since 1992... *** In handicap division news... Monday's Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont will have one of the best fields of the year, as Ghostzapper makes his 2005 debut. He'll be conceding 1 pound in the Met Mile to Saint Liam (122), who he outlasted in last year's Woodward, as well as giving away 5 pounds to Forest Danger, seven pounds to Medallist and Sir Shackleton, eight to Pomeroy and 9 apiece to Silver Wagon and Swingforthefences... Funny Cide is looking more likely for the Brooklyn Handicap, earlier on the Belmont card. The Barclay Tagg-trained gelding is likely to spend the rest of his 2005 campaign at NYRA tracks. Gygistar and Zakocity are also pointed to the Brooklyn... *** If you noticed mutuel ticket lines were a little long at Belmont this weekend, your eyes were not deceiving you. NYRA tellers staged a wildcat sick-out on Saturday, which was against the terms of their collective bargaining agreement. 59 tellers were fired for their part in the job action, and another 30 were suspended. The union claims it did not authorize the sick-out, and was contacting employees to get them to come in on Preakness Day. Employees who arrived by post time of the 3rd race (2.04 PM) were only suspended, while all the others were fired. NYRA had a hiring event previously scheduled at Aqueduct that weekend for temp tellers, ushers and admissions attendants for Belmont Day, and they still expect to have 800 workers on staff for the Belmont Stakes. This is likely to include Saratoga workers who will be brought down for the day, like they do for the Derby. *** A quick glance at Stubhub.com for reserved tickets for the Belmont shows that tickets are still slightly above face value for the sold out seating, although I'd expect that to go down as we get a little closer to race day. This year, NYRA has raised general admission on Belmont Day dramatically, boosting grandstand admission from $2 to $10, and clubhouse admission from $5 to $20, which places them more in line with the other Triple Crown venues.
Since the mile and a half distance is so rare in this country, it's a big education to watch NYRA's Belmont Stakes Archive: http://belmontstakes.nyra.com/belstakes2005/video.asp#
I didn't play the Preakness, but had I done so, I was leaning toward playing High Limit with Greeley's Galaxy and High Gly in hopes that High Limit could steal it from in front at a price. I wasn't anywhere near a track, OTB, or a PC (youbet and xpressbet are wonderful), and it's just as well that I didn't play it. Watching the Belmont videos just reminds me how freakin' long Belmont's straightaways are. Smarty Jones was game as could be, but that stretch just lasts f-o-r-e-v-e-r.
I'm playing a pair of $36 Pick 4's at Belmont today. I'm past the first leg of the early Pick 4, where I singled the 1, Devil's Dust. Here's the early ticket: Race 2: 1 Race 3: 1/2/6/7 Race 4: 6/8/15 Race 5: 1/3/4 This is the late Pick 4 ticket: Race 6: 1/8/10 Race 7: 1/4/7 Race 8: 1a Race 9: 3/5/8/9
I guess it's hard to be too upset when you consider how little the early p4 paid and how little the late one will pay. In a couple of the races you ran 2-4 with all your horses, something that seems to happen a lot with me, too. It means you handicapped the race well for the most part... Did you have anything on Love of Money to win? I had heard they were considering the Met Mile with this one, but they chose the easier spot and it paid off. Hopefully you were able to recoup a little on him today... I have just one wager today, a $1 pick 3 at Hollywood Park starting in the 4th race. I see two beatable odds-on favorites in the 4th and 5th so I'm hoping to catch a couple of decent priced contenders that figure and then I'll use all the logical horses in the 6th. Here's how I played it: 4th: 1,6,7,11 5th: 1,2,3,8,10 6th: 1,2,5,6,7,8,10 Total: $140.
Liverpool! So, I was right in identifying the vulnerable favorite (3/5) in the 4th race at Hollywood, but I didn't use the 20-1 first-timer that ended up winning...
Afleet Alex jogged 2 miles today and seems to show no wear and tear from Saturday's adventure in Pimlico. John Shirreffs let Giacomo out a little today as well, but played his cards close to the vest about a Belmont run. Robert Bailes was similarly tight lipped about whether or not Scrappy T would be joining the Belmont party. Southern Africa will be coming out, with Jon Court named to ride. Warren Stute has decided not to run Greeley's Galaxy, who he said "did not have an excuse" in the Preakness.