Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Congrats on that future wager! It was worth the lower price just to say that you picked him 3 months before the race! Did you see the video of Ken Rudolph watching the race live? They secretly had him mic'd just in case Giacomo won... and it really paid off. I'm sure TVG will replay that about a thousand times in the days ahead, because it's priceless and real. You can't fake that kind of enthusiasm... Well, I want to say that the fitness angle held up. But with Closing Argument's game second place finish after coming off only two preps, I'm not sure how meaningful it is. If Giacomo gets stopped at the 1/8th pole then Closing Argument wins and the fitness angle is debunked... As for Giacomo himself, I was at Santa Anita when he broke his maiden by 10 and have been following him ever since. I played him in all three of his 3YO preps, but his loss in the SA Derby really disappointed me (for the third time in a row) and I got off of him. Then in the last 3 weeks I'd regurgitated my analysis (combing the fitness and triple digit Beyer angles) so many times that I wouldn't allow myself to consider a horse that would have fit my profile perfectly (his PP's looked a lot like Real Quiet's)... except that his Beyer fell 2 points short of 100. Anyway, today was one of those days when you look at the race results and realize that using the same logic you used to make your actual selections, you could have come up with the right combination in the pick 4 on races 7-10. Sometimes it just comes down to fear vs. guts. Playing to win vs. playing not to lose. Today, as with most days, I played not to lose: In the 7th, Miss Terrible was the last horse I threw out. I had heard that Ticker Tape wasn't 100 % (from the trainer's mouth, no less), and I talked here on Thursday about wanting to beat Ticker Tape, but I didn't have the guts to leave her off the ticket so I made some excuse for not including Miss Terrible and got burned. In the 8th, I thought that Madcap Escapade was beatable so I used two horses in the leg. The horse I played along with the favorite, Bending Strings, looked similar to My Trusty Cat in her PP's in that they were solid G2 quality at 7 furlongs and were the most likely to upset Madcap if an upset was to take place. I used Bending Strings and the favorite, but could have just as easily used My Trusty Cat based on the same logic. And if I had any guts at all I would have thrown out the favorite and used the other two. But I was afraid to leave Madcap off the ticket. In the 9th, I used 5 horses in an attempt to beat the favorite Perfect Drift. And one of the five, A to the Z, had finished in a virtual dead heat with America Alive in their last race. Both would have seemed to have an equal shot, but I had to draw the line somewhere and chose to toss America Alive. If I weren't afraid that Sweet Return would get an easy lead I could have used AA instead. Again, fear. Finally, in the Derby, Giacomo was very logical considering the expected pace scenario and his perfect prep schedule. With an open mind about the triple digit Beyer thing, and without such a knee jerk reaction to his loss in the SA Derby (I had convinced myself after that race that he was a hanger), he would have been very easy to include. I was spreading there anyway... In the end, however, you can't play 'em all. But it's tough when it's right there for the taking and for one reason or another you use who you use and throw out who you throw out. It would be different if someone like Puxa Saco had won the Humana or Quest Star had won the Woodford Reserve. Those are horses I hated and would have just turned the page had they won. But the combination was hittable with the right mindset of playing to win rather than not to lose. Most of the time I play not to lose. I've gotta work on that... On to the Preakness. I've got to think that Zito will be back with at least 3 of his horses and maybe 4 (thinking Andromeda's Hero most likely won't return there). Afleet Alex will show up. Closing Argument probably will show up. Obviously Giacomo. But who else? Maybe Bandini, since he didn't run a step today. Perhaps Wilko, perhaps Greeley's Galaxy or Buzzard's Bay. But I can't envision any of the horses on the pace today will return in two weeks. And with a totally different pace scenario, not sure Giacomo will fare as well. I'll be rooting for him because I always root for the Derby winner, but probably not betting on him. Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex make the most sense if they return at Pimlico...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail It really was a fun race to watch, especially if you didn't have any real money down on it. The 4f and 6f splits were brutal, I think 4f was 45.1, and 6f was 1:09 and something.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail So I went back to read what I idiocies I wrote about Giacomo in my pre-race rundown of the horse, and I realize I left him out. Ouch. This is a humbling game. Congrats Ian on the future wager!
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail We were in Belmont, where there was no sound on the simulcast, and I wouldn't have heard anything over the roaring, which went to a hush after they hit the wire, and 1000 guys on the second floor of the club house all said at once, "Who's the 10?"
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail http://www.drf.com/news/article/64818.html Rundown of the Preakness returnees and possible new shooters. *** TVG is saying that the Beyer for Giacomo will be published as an even 100.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I back from my first Derby. My picks sucked all day yesterday, didn't win anything. It seemed that front runners were winning all day. At the end of the Derby every one just looked around at each other with the sam look on there face, WHO? I was in the infield and I think I heard two people yell YEAH! when the placers were annouced. One person I was with did have the second place horse to at least show.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I was expecting them to tighten up the track for Derby Day. Early speed was definitely carrying, but I think it only added to the pace collapse for the Derby-- they ran it the opening 6 furlongs like it was the entire race. I expect that by Wednesday, it will be back to being the closer-favoring track it was all week going into it. Right now, two of the most idiosyncratic tracks available, CD and Belmont, are early in their meets, and the strongest handicapping angle I've had, applicable on dirt or turf, is bet the horses who have won at that track before. It's been strongest on the CD turf, and for Belmont, it also helps to look at which turfers have run well on the Widener Turf and which run better on the Inner Turf, which has tighter turns and favors earlier speed than most turf courses. A box instead of an oval around the T in the program designates Inner Turf.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I think you're right about the track in its role in helping determine the outcome. Not only speed, but outside speed seemed to have an advantage all day. It wouldn't surprise me if some trainers, after watching things unfold all afternoon, had instructed their jocks to stay near the pace and not to worry about going wide. There must have been five or six premature moves around the far turn into that hot pace, with Buzzard's Bay perhaps running one of the best races of the entire field, along with Closing Argument. You gonna play the CD pick 6 on Wednesday? Hollywood carried over, too. But "only" for $140,000... On their own, the CD pool could reach $3M and Hollywood's $1M. But I wonder how each pool will be affected by the other's carryover. Will the public play both or will players pick their spot?
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I thought Mike Smith had the ride of the race. He looked like Bill Shoemaker on Ferdinand out there, weaving through traffic. I know Zito said Noble Causeway had to check, but I didn't see it. The two people I singled out with bad rides were Jerry Bailey, who was way too close to the pace, and Jeremy Rose, on Afleet Alex. Rose was right hand whipping through the stretch, and never corrected when his horse lugged in, which cost him enough ground to lose at least second, if not the race outright. More Monday morning horsemanship: You think Ron Ellis regrets running Don't Get Mad a week before in the Derby Trial? That horse had a legitimate shot to win as well. And as long as we're on the subject of the California horses and the much maligned SA Derby: Giacomo (1st), Don't Get Mad (4th), Buzzards Bay (5th), Wilko (6th). Imagine if General John B or Consolidator had made it in. Look, I know these horses were beneficiaries of a pace collapse, but let's remember one thing: SoCal horses lost immense amounts of training time this year due to all the rains. They may be only just now hitting peak form, especially Don't Get Mad and Wilko, who had late starts to the year due to hoof injuries. I'm not a pick six player. If I play, it'll be a $2 lotto ticket, basically-- pick 3 longshots in 6 singles. The big money players, guys like Steve Crist who throw $1,000 at it daily, will be in large on both, I'm sure. Incidentally, if you're interested in that stuff, DRF will send you e-mails from their Pick 6 watch to let you know the carryovers when they happen. I think $45K + carried over at Belmont, and there was a $386 or so carryover at some hole in the wall called Assimbiola Downs. Why the hell would anyone play a pick 6 when the payout's not even enough to justify a Pick 4 ticket?
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail http://www.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28050 If this guy doesn't split this ticket 50/50 with the mutuel teller, who bailed him out twice, he's the most ungrateful schmuck who ever lived.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I was thinking about this. Since they knew Hertzog bought the ticket, and could probably verify through video that it was for sure him who bought the ticket and no one else based on teller location and time of day, then did it really matter if he lost the actual ticket? Assuming of course that no one found and cashed the ticket before he realized that he had won, couldn't they just put a "stop" on the ticket's serial number and issue Hertzog his winnings? I've left a voucher with a teller before (she actually forgot to print it up and I forgot to check for it when I left the window with my tickets) and they were able to verify how much I left and returned the money to me ($45). But I guess my question is what happens if everyone knows that a certain player purchased a certain ticket, but the ticket is lost and some guy picks it up? What does the law say? If someone throws a ticket on the ground does he forfeit all rights to it? What if he drops it by accident and some other guy finds it say a couple hours later? Whom does the ticket belong to? And I'm not sure if the teller deserves half as a tip. There was no way she could have cashed the ticket on her own, and if she tried to sell it or give it to a family member or friend to cash she'd have to know she'd get caught. So, she did the right thing by not trying anything unsavory, but she probably also realized that she stood a better chance of getting and keeping some money out of it and staying out of legal or job trouble if she just admitted to finding the ticket. Also, when you consider that the ticket never would have been lost if she hadn't just kept punching up tickets without clearing them off the machine slot, she was partly responsible for the drama in the first place. She deserves something for her honesty, but no more than $10,000 or thereabouts, and even that's pushing it... We don't want to encourage other tellers to "lose" their patrons' tickets in the off chance that one hits big so that they can "find" the ticket the next day hoping for a reward... Too cynical?
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Arizona state law requires the player to have the ticket in order to cash. Besides, what if you bought a ticket and gave it as a gift? People do it with scratch-off lottery tickets. OK, so I'm exaggerating a bit. That said, if you had one of the seven winning superfecta tickets, keeping your job might not be the greatest motivation. (NYRA bans its mutuel tellers from betting. I assume the same is true in other jurisdictions.) That said, if you throw your ticket into the trash, as the player did with the rest of the tickets, I'd say he's forfeited his right to it. I mean, I see people pull tickets out of the trash at the NYRA tracks all the time. If one of those scavengers were to find that nugget, I think it's his. All the more reason to make your bets on a swipe card like I do.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail We don't have swipe cards out here. It seems like a great idea, but I haven't read that they're even talking about it so it could be a long way off... How does that work as far as verification of the bets made? I know the actual bet is logged on the cardholder's account, but does the machine spit out a receipt to verify that you entered the numbers properly so you can turn around and change/cancel the bet if you did it wrong?
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail The way it works with most United Tote machines (now appearing at CDSN tracks as well as NYRA) is that there's an on-screen user interface that takes up the right 2/3 of the screen for making all your bets, etc. On the left hand side, you can alternate between a program screen that shows the eligible runners in a race and their up to the minute odds, or you can go to a user history, that shows you all your recent tickets, deposits, etc. You can even cancel a ticket beforehand with a couple of taps on the screen if you make a mistake or second guess yourself. I'm told that if you go to a supervisor station, you can even get a printout of your yearly activity, which is nice at tax time if you've had to make a few trips to the IRS window. I've been using one since Breeders' Cup day, and it's a nice change. No more worrying about wrinkled or wet tickets, or worse yet, lost tickets. No more trying to keep track of cash vouchers-- if you've ever lost one of those, you know it's much more frustrating than losing the money due to bad handicapping. And hey, on Saturday, I played a $2 WP hunch play on a race at Pimlico. Completely forgot about the race when one of the Belmont horses started rearing up in the walking ring. Came back 1/2 an hour later and found that I had cashed for $15.60, and that the money was already back in the account.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail That sounds great. I'm wondering if they have the machines at Hollywood Park, since it's CDSN owned... I haven't seen any at Del Mar, although that could change by this Summer's meet... Is it PIN driven? I'm guessing it is in case a card is lost...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail It's PIN driven, and the cards come with a scratch off line with a pre-set PIN. First thing you do is change the PIN. *** http://www.drf.com/news/article/64847.html Bellamy Road out with a popped splint in his left foreleg.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I'll be on the lookout for the cards at the Del Mar satellite facility, although truth be told I rarely go to the OTB anymore. I much prefer staying home and using one of the internet sites. I'm kind of an OTB snob in that I get really annoyed with a lot of the characters I encounter when I go to these places. Too many loudmouths, ya know? Plus it really bothers me when I see guys bring young kids because they can't get a sitter (or can't afford one). It's much more comfortable at home where I can lose money in peace... When Del Mar opens, however, there's no substitute for being there... So, Bellamy Road is out. I can't access drf.com from my office (gambling sites are blocked) so I wasn't able to read the story, but the Preakness just became wide open and very bettable. Afleet Alex will be bet hard, but didn't it seem like he got a perfect trip in the Derby and still lost? He's as honest as they come, but I think he'll be overbet. I'm thinking that Closing Argument will become the wiseguy horse and be an underlay at 3-1 or thereabouts. As such, I'll be looking at the remaining Zito horses and High Limit/Going Wild (or some other lone speed, whoever it turns out to be). I can see this race becoming the anti-Derby, with jockeys not wanting to get involved in a hot pace. Plus, with Bellamy Road out the prevailing logic will be that the front runners are harmless and will come back to the field. Plus, in years when the Derby winner doesn't win it, the Preakness has a history of being won wire-to-wire (Tank's Prospect, Snow Chief, Louis Quatorze) or from just off the pace (Point Given, Red Bullet, Summer Squall, Tobasco Cat, Hansel, etc.). Of all the non-Derby winners who've won the Preakness in the last 20 years or so, only Prarie Bayou won from far back. Probably because of the over-corrections that are made pace-wise coming out of the Derby...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail If the lone speed is Going Wild, it'll be an off the pace runner. If it's High Limit, it'll be a wire job. If it's Spanish Chestnut who shows up, all bets are off. All I know is Closing Argument fits in to my plans in any scenario. Not only has the horse never been off the board, but he's in the third start of his form cycle for one of America's best trainers in Kieran McLaughlin. This horse can do some damage in the right spot. There's one other horse who's plenty dangerous in any scenario now, even though I think he's not going to really come into his own till he gets on grass: High Fly. He's the most versatile of these, and he can win from the front or just off the lead.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail With BR out and Zito not saying much, I think he's really steaming (and embarrassed) about the overall poor showing of his lot on Derby day. I'll bet he runs all three (HF, NC, SK) in the Preakness... I like Closing Argument, but I just can't see him being a fair price with Bellamy Road out and the public looking for something else to latch onto. Afleet Alex is going to be less than 2-1 as a result, but Closing Argument will be right behind him... I've got to think Spanish Chestnut will take a few months off and come back in the Affirmed at Hollywood this Summer. And right around now is when I start looking for horses that might run in the 3YO turf series at Del Mar. Every so often a TC also-ran will develop into a nice turf horse at Del Mar, whether it be Vernon Castle, Hawkster, Mane Minister, etc. This year the obvious candidates are Buzzard's Bay, Wilko and Greeley's Galaxy...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail It's easy to think that now, but once people have the Form in front of them and see no 100+ Beyers, they'll cool down. Scrappy T is another with that pace profile who might threaten. He should have been 2nd in the Wood if his saddle hadn't slipped, and won the Withers in the third start of his form cycle. I would have put Spanish Chestnut (sired by Horse Chestnut) and High Fly (grandsire: Nureyev) as the obvious turfers in the bunch. Wilko is not going to be a turfer-- his many turf defeats during his 2 yo season alone makes that pretty clear. As an Awesome Again colt, his future is on dirt at the classic distances. (Throw out his Derby-- he bled, as did Buzzards Bay.) Noble Causeway has an obvious turf pedigree, and Sort It Out might run well there-- out of a Kris S. mare.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I guess I was referring more to the Del Mar races specifically. But I can definitely envision Noble Causeway or High Fly hitting the 3YO turf circuit in Arlington or Saratoga. However, unless Zito transfers either of them to someone out here I doubt I'll get to see them live. He usually doesn't ship to Del Mar... I also thought about Spanish Chestnut, but I have a feeling they'll try him in the dirt stakes at Hollywood (Affirmed and Swaps Stakes) first... Greeley's Galaxy was my hunch play in that his dam has Deputy Minister in her pedigree, who sired Mane Minister... a reach, I know... Do you mind if I ask what publication you write for? You mentioned last week that you were writing Bailey's biography, and it sounds like you're somewhat connected. I won't be offended if you can't or don't want to tell me, I'm just curious...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Forgot to comment on Scrappy T. His name definitely fits, and he's always in the exotics at a nice price. Still, he stirkes me more as a useful runner who will win restricted stakes and hang tough for the smaller placings in the bigger races and outfinish a few more accomplished horses here and there. I see him in the mix in the Preakness, but his Withers Beyer will be inflated due to the off track and he might take more money than he should... I've already seen a few folks on the drf.com message boards talking about him...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Remember, when you're dealing with pedigree, distance and surface come from the sire, and class comes from the dam. Mr. Greeley (by Gone West) is considered a hidden turf sire, but not as potent a combination as those who have hidden turf on both sides. His 295 Tomlinson is borderline (Lee Tomlinson says 280 is the first number where horses start to show some ability. The Deputy Minister side for him doesn't thrill me on turf class, but here's what you do: Next time, take a look at the size of his hoof in comparison to the other runners. Larger hoof surface will allow the horse to run well on the grass, while smaller, narrower hooves get in and out of the dirt track pretty easily. Also, reading Lauren Stich's Pedigree Handicapping and Dan Illman's Betting Maidens and Two Year Olds will help, as will Bill Heller's Go For the Green, which covers turf picking in general. On dirt, I'm not the biggest class handicapper, but on turf, it's my main tool, and I do my best work on turf, especially in MSW's and Alw's with first time turfers. No, no. I was reading Bailey's autobiography, which came out a couple of months ago. I'm not in the business at all.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I like him underneath, but my concern is still that I don't see that much early speed in the field yet. Going Wild has early speed, but the horse has no heart and I don't think he can sustain a speed duel long enough to set one up for the late runners. Greeley's Galaxy has early speed and one of the better Beyers in the group and can wire this field. The maiden, A.P. Arrow, is somewhat versatile and might go to the front. If no one else wants it, both High Fly and Sun King are capable of wiring a field as well, but are more likely to sit just behind this pace. They're still the best two choices in this bunch, in my opinion.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I've always been very unsophisticated when it came to pedigree. Thanks for the advice/clarification on sire v. dam. It makes sense, as does the size of the hoof thing with regard to turf runners. Although it's next to impossible to tell the relative size of a hoof via TVG.