A week ago I would have told you that we have no chances of winning the league. However, in lieu of week 26 results things don't look as bleak as they are made out to be. Had we won the classico at the weekend I feel we could have had an enormous chance of winning the league. That late goal was a real kick in the teeth for us. Nevertheless our corresponding fixtures for the remainder of the season are quite favourable. The 2 crunch games are going to be played at the Bernabeu and with the exception of an away trip to Zaragoza the fixtures are quite favourable. Real Madrid will also be the most rested of the 4 title challenging teams as we are left fighting only for the league. Barca are still in the hunt for the Copa Del Rey. Sevilla and Valencia are still fighting in THREE competitions respectivley. The UEFA Cup and Champions League may take their toll on these 2 teams and they could start to gradually lose more points. Sevilla looked very jaded yesterday. The UEFA cup obviously having an affect on their fatigue. However, what I am ultimatly asking is do you think Real Madrid has it in them to win the league? There is an article on Real Madrids official website saying that our form at the Bernabeu is key. I totally agree with that opinion because if we can improve our home form and continue to play effectivley away from home then perhaps we are in with a shout. Five points is not an insurmountable lead. Two seasons ago we were excited about being 7 points behind Barca after the 4-2 win so can we do it? Here is our remaining 12 fixtures courtesy of www.realmadrid.com Matchday 27: REAL MADRID - NASTIC (18-03-2007) Matchday 28: CELTA VIGO - REAL MADRID (01-04-2007) Matchday 29: REAL MADRID - OSASUNA (08-04-2007) Matchday 30: RACING SANTANDER - REAL MADRID (15-04-2007) Matchday 31: REAL MADRID - VALENCIA (22-04-2007) Matchday 32: ATHLETIC BILBAO - REAL MADRID (29-04-2007) Matchday 33: REAL MADRID - SEVILLA (06-05-2007) Matchday 34: REAL MADRID - ESPANYOL (13-05-2007) Matchday 35: RECREATIVO HUELVA- REAL MADRID (20-05-2007) Matchday 36: REAL MADRID - DEPORTIVO (27-05-2007) Matchday 37: ZARAGOZA - REAL MADRID (10-06-2007) Matchday 38: REAL MADRID - MALLORCA (17-06-2007) Valencia Sun. 18 16:00 UK Valencia v Racing SantanderApr. Sun. 1 16:00 UK Valencia v Espanyol Wed. 4 19:45 UK Chelsea v Valencia Sun. 8 16:00 UK Athletic Bilbao v Valencia Estadio Valencia v Chelsea Sun. 15 16:00 UK Valencia v FC Sevilla Sun. 22 16:00 UK Real Madrid v Valencia Sun. 29 16:00 UK Valencia v Recreativo Huelva May. Sun. 6 16:00 UK Deportivo La Corua> v Valencia Sun. 13 16:00 UK Valencia v Real Zaragoza Sun. 20 16:00 UK Mallorca v Valencia Estadio Sun. 27 16:00 UK Valencia v Villarreal Jun. Sun. 10 16:00 UK Levante v Valencia Sun. 17 16:00 UK Valencia v Real Sociedad Sevilla Thu. 15 18:30 UK Shakhtar Donetsk v FC Sevilla RSK Sun. 18 16:00 UK FC Sevilla v Celta Vigo Tue. 20 19:00 UK Real Betis v FC Sevilla Apr. '07 TIME HOME AWAY VENUE COMPETITION Sun. 1 16:00 UK Osasuna v FC Sevilla Sun. 8 16:00 UK FC Sevilla v Racing Santander Sun. 15 16:00 UK Valencia v FC Sevilla Estadio Sun. 22 16:00 UK FC Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao Sun. 29 16:00 UK FC Sevilla v Espanyol May. '07 TIME HOME AWAY VENUE COMPETITION Sun. 6 16:00 UK Real Madrid v FC Sevilla Sun. 13 16:00 UK FC Sevilla v Recreativo Huelva Sun. 20 16:00 UK Deportivo La Coruña v FC Sevilla Sun. 27 16:00 UK FC Sevilla v Real Zaragoza Jun. '07 TIME HOME AWAY VENUE COMPETITION Sun. 10 16:00 UK Mallorca v FC Sevilla Sun. 17 16:00 UK FC Sevilla v Villarreal Barcelona Sun. 18 16:00 UK Recreativo Huelva v Barcelona Apr. '07 TIME HOME AWAY VENUE COMPETITION Sun. 1 16:00 UK Barcelona v Deportivo La Coruña Sun. 8 16:00 UK Real Zaragoza v Barcelona Sun. 15 16:00 UK Barcelona v Mallorca Sun. 22 16:00 UK Villarreal v Barcelona Sun. 29 16:00 UK Barcelona v Levante May. '07 TIME HOME AWAY VENUE COMPETITION Sun. 6 16:00 UK Real Sociedad v Barcelona Sun. 13 16:00 UK Barcelona v Real Betis Sun. 20 16:00 UK Atlético Madrid v Barcelona Sun. 27 16:00 UK Barcelona v Getafe Jun. '07 TIME HOME AWAY VENUE COMPETITION Sun. 10 16:00 UK Barcelona v Espanyol Sun. 17 16:00 UK Gimnastic de Tarragona v Barcelona
I had lost hope since the draw with Getafe, but i am bit more optimistic now. anyway it is not the easier schedule that is the key i think. The key will be the attitude of the players. We have proven that we drop points more with the easy teams, but if we play our best we are cappable of beating all of them. So yes, if the players consider the remaining 12 games as 12 finals then we have a very good chance. I am 100% sure the other teams will drop a lot of points...but the question is: Shall we???
Let's see if we can pick up just one win first. We tend to play well only in big matches, but winning the league is all about beating inferior teams. Winning all 12 matches is probably not going to happen, but a more realistic goal would be to dominate and win all the home matches.
I am hopeing too cant see it but football is a funny game. I think Barca have the easiest matches on paper we need to try and win 12 game if we can do that then hay we can go for it. But as soon as well lose 2 thats it game over. We need beat nastic at the weekend they are on good form but portillo cant play and we are at home and need to play and win a good 2-0 3-0. Imagine this Table at the end of the season Barcelona- 63 Real Madrid- 63 We would win on the head to head rule. Hala Madrid
^Finishing on 63 points would be really quite pathetic, considering we're on 45. To only earn 18 more points out of a possible 36 and then win the league is impossible. Perhaps you mean 73?
Oh right. What I'd like to know is what happens if the situation is that 3 teams are tied at the top, say RM, Barca and Sevilla. We have a better head to head against Barca, who have a better head to head against Sevilla, who have a better head to head against us? So what happens? Goal difference? Play-off?
That late goal against us in the Farca game really hurt, and I actually had a hard time coping with the fact that we didn't win. But after this weekends results and seeing that only Valencia managed to pick up a point, my spirits are a lot higher. 5 points off the pace with 12 games left. Basically, I know the other teams(Sevilla, Farca, and Valencia) will drops points the remainder of the way, because, well, let's face it, they've been doing it for us all season long and if we can just get the wins at home, our away form will more than make up the additional points needed to win the league. At least I hope. But we can do it. Have faith, I've had it all season long and won't ever give up on the team. Hala Madrid!
In terms of the head-to-head - we have the advantage over Barca, we have beaten Valencia 1-0 away and lost to Sevilla 2-1 away. In order for our head-to-heads to matter, we would have to get a good result in one or both of those games. A draw or better would give us the advantage over Valencia while only a win would see us better Sevilla. It would be possible that we could hold the advantage over all our rivals come the end of the season.
I think that this season you can win la liga with around 75 points. We have 45, that means that we need 30 points of 36 points, or 10 wins in the last 12 games, or 9 wins and 3 draws in the last 12 games. My prediction is based in these numbers: Season---------1*------2*-----3* ---------------------------------- 2005/2006------82------61-----21 2004/2005------84------59-----25 2003/2004------77------59-----28 2002/2003------78------54-----24 2001/2002------75------44-----31 2000/2001------80------56-----24 1999/2000------69------49-----20 1998/1999------79------50-----29 1997/1998------74------49-----25 ---------------------------------- Average------------------------25 (average of points in the last 12 games of the season) 1* ---> points of la liga winner 2* ---> points of la liga leader after 26 games 3* ---> Difference of points Barcelona and Sevilla are leaders after 26 games with 50 points. 50 + 25= 75 points at the end of the season. The best record in the last 12 games is 31 points. 50 + 31= 81. That would means that we would have to win all the games 45+36 to win la liga. The worse record in the last 12 games is 20 points. 50+20= 70. That would means that we would need 8 win and 1 draw to win la liga 45+25. In summary, very chungo , or very difficult. Or at least we need to win 8 of the last 12 games to dream to win la liga. Being realistic and watching our home record this season, the worse ever, and knowing that we have to play 7 of the last 12 games at home, i'm not very optimistic, but ....
If more than two teams end up on equal points than the head-to-head goes for them. If one of those teams have the upper hand over the rest then that team is the winner. If it is mixed than the GD rules. I hope we have a better head to head than them cause our GD suckes, unless we improve it till the end. But we can have the better head to head though. We have against Farca, we have a good chance to have also against Valenci and if we win by more than 1 goal with Sevilla we will have them in the bag too. Has it ever happened for the top teams to finish on equal points though?
Madrid would need to at least catch Barca (not necessarily Sevilla) in the next 3 matches. Look at Barca's last 9 matches compared to Madrid's last 9: much much tougher schedule for Madrid.
Or "this season, same as the last five?" We have actually shown strength in recent end-of-season runs, so I have faith.
Interesting post and well thought out. I too agree with what you have said. As for our chances it will be a long shot because we must remember we haven't done well at home and we are 5 points down. Also we do give up points and if we continue this trend it will be too late sooner than later.
At this point, I am hoping for a second place finish to get an automatic berth in the CL. Considering what I've seen this year, I would consider that a success. I think it will take a minor miracle to win La Liga... maybe more than minor. I hope I'm wrong.
Agree, it will be nothing short of a miracle if we somehow win the league..and like MadridForver said we still have quite a bit of home games to play and our record at home is shit.
Can we hire Luxambergo just for the remainder of this season? It's a little difficult but not impossible. If Capello miraculously does it playing "average" (not to boring, but not too flashy either) football, what do you think we should do to Capello then?
While I think looking at previous seasons is a good measure of what is required in this one - I would suggest that this season has been unlike most I remember up to this point! The top teams seem to be falling over one another to lose. To me, ten wins and two draws would have us win the league by a margin the way things are going.
If Capello was to win everysingle game we have left, with a average of 3 goals per game, and win the league.. im pretty sure, they'll still be a couple people ( more than a couple? ) that would want him gone..
umm...if we don't win the league, sure bye bye, if we win the league ill give the man the benefit of a doubt.