Haven't done this in a while, and for the newer folks here I'll explain. Every so often I try and collect a list of the guys who are currently in the best position to make a run at a future World Cup roster. My lists are always tied heavily to the ages of players based on the age ranges of roster players from previous world cups. I've updated those numbers bu they've hardly changed. There will be 13 Goalkeepers, 32 Defenders, 33 Midfielders and 22 Forwards. There will be no outfield players born before 1978 (and only one keeper) and 1997 is the theoretical limit on the other end. Here are the 13 keepers: Goalkeepers 1. Tim Howard, 35, Everton 2. Brad Guzan, 30, Aston Villa 3. Will Hesmer, 33, Columbus Crew 4. Andrew Dykstra, 28, Chicago Fire 5. Matt Pickens, 32, Colorado Rapids 6. Bill Hamid, 24, DC United 7. Chris Seitz, 27, Philadelphia Union 8. Dominic Cervi, 28, Glasgow Celtic (does he even own a jersey for them?) 9. Luis Robles, 30, Kaiserslautern 10. Zac MacMath, 23, University of Maryland 11. Nick Noble, 30, Ljungskile SK 12. Brian Perk, 25, Philadelphia Union 13. Matt Reis, 39, New England Revolution (age thing) Honorable Mention: Troy Perkins 33, Bobby Shuttleworth 27, Tyler Deric 26. That's pretty darn thin at a position that tends to favor veterans. Hahnemann is not an option as he'll be 42. It will be interesting to see who the MLS goalkeeping candidates will be. Perkins will be 33 and is playing awful this year. Hesmer and Pickens are outplaying him, and you'd hope when looking for options behind the clear top two, you'd look a little younger than all of them anyway. Dykstra and Seitz are the right ages and getting playing time, so they have to be considered to be in contention. Reis is there simply because the system wanted one guy born from 1974-1977 and I suppose either he or Cannon is the only real choice from there. Neither are going. You'll see the beginning of a pattern here in that the number of guys from outside the current roster we can point to is really small, and this is true at pretty much all the positions other than maybe in the midfield. The coach this cycle, whoever it may be, has his or her work cut out for him or her. I'll post the Defenders next and a cursory examination is quite scary here.
From what I have heard in the MLS forums and in YA Bill Hamid looked really impressive for DC and people were acting like he was infinitely better than Seitz. Anybody know a lot about him?
As someone who has seen every Union game this year, Seitz would need a while to have the confidence of the defense, although he's getting better.
Hamid does indeed look like an excellent prospect. I have high hopes for him. Just out of curiosity, what is Quentin Westberg up to these days? Is he still even playing soccer? For some reason I thought of him when reading over this list.... edit: guess I can do the research myself. Still w/Troyes apparently, in the French 3rd division.
Seems pretty likely that Howard will be in goal, and Guzan will again be a backup. So already it only seems like one spot is available. If you want a young sleeper, how about Josh Lambo?
This is probably the thinnest pool we've had at keeper for a while. Howard will probably be two years past where you want him. Hamid will probably be two years short of where you want him. Dykstra strikes me as a quality MLS keeper but nothing more. Guzan has not impressed in his starts. He may have learned from Friedel, but he desperately needs to play at the club level.
Don't sleep on Tally Hall, once Onstad is finally pushed out the door in Houston. He's been phenomenal in cup and international competition, and he's only 25. Could be a sleeper to come out of nowhere in the next cycle.
My guess is that the next WC cycle will have 1. Howard 2. guzan 3. Hamid (yes, he's that good of a prospect)
I haven't seen him personally, but the reports on Robles are fairly positive. He's fared solidly when given opportunities but at Kaiserslautern he's blocked by a fringe German international who conceded the least goals in the BS II by a significant amount. Some people are leery about him due to his age, but keep in mind, Hahnemann didn't have a foothold overseas until he was 30, and that was in the Colaship. Robles recently turned 26. And Hamid has to be considered quite promising. He has ideal size, is pretty athletic, competitive, has soft hands, and solid positioning. I think he'll be in the mix in the future. He might be ready in '14. He's already pretty advanced. I'm wondering where Edwards was on this list. Newcastle is enthralled.
Hall and Lambo were considered. But ultimately I was looking for guys who were either real young, playing regularly, or not-playing but for a big club. Hall doesn't qualify there, and I had other guys Lambo's age I preferred. Obviously should Hall start playing regularly and start playing well, he's got as good a shot as anyone behind Guzan. Of course that goes for a lot of other guys too. 35 actually is pretty old for a keeper despite what you hear. Yes if you have a star keeper like Howard he can still be your guy at that age. But right now there were only two spots in that age group and Howard's one of them. I gave the other to Hesmer (who I think will emerge as the Domestic No. 1 for a bit) and Perkins was considered too despite his poor form. Rimando is going to have to settle for being Kevin Hartman. Good player with a limited National Team career. I confess to being a Matt Pickens fan. When he gets to play he plays well. On his day he can be as good as anybody we got. But sometimes it's not his day. Defenders up soon, and it looks like we may very well need all of Bocanegra, Cherundolo and DeMerit extensively the next cycle.
Oh, you're fairly new around here. You're unfamiliar with DCU fans and their long history of pushing players on the USMNT board. Does anyone else remember John Wilson for left back? Or Marc Burch for left back? Or .... That said, here's hoping Hamid turns out to be great.
Oh, I've seen Robles in his one cap. Here's hoping he never has another. It wasn't just that he sucked. It's that he sucked and he was yelling blame at all the other players.
I understand why he's not on the list, just thought I'd throw it out there. If I weren't a Houston fan and hadn't seen his games, he probably wouldn't be on my list either. But he's been really good at the professional level, which is more than some of the others can say. I've never seen anything from Cervi, for example, despite the fact that his paycheck says "Celtic Football Club" at the top. Really, at this point, is he much more than the goalkeeping equivalent of Gabe Ferrari?
I was afraid of the defenders the most. Using 3/4 of our starting backline 2010 for the future sounds scary but perhaps we can spin it as positively as possible.
What about Samir Badr at Porto? He and Cody Cropper (trialling at Ipswich Town) will be young but who knows how they will develop in 4 years time.
Keepers that young at the world cup are exceedingly rare and Hamid definitely belongs (getting significant minutes as a pro already at a decent level) and I took MacMath as the other from that group as he is likely the U-20 starter right now and a little older. As a '92 and a '93, 2018 is a more reasonable timetable for Badr and Cropper. If there was a World Cup in 2016, they'd have a shot there, but 2014 is stretching it a bit. Only 20 out of the 381 keepers to make a roster in the last four world cups had 22 year old birth years or younger. The numbers start to trend up almost exactly starting at 23, which makes a 1991 the logical place to start for the youngest keeper on the list.
Sound logic, fair enough. Your theory holds true for Joe Hart (by 2 months, almost too close ). I suppose I maybe just want to mention them to show that the cupboard isn't entirely bare. There's a good chances we could have Howard in goal until 2018 and these two might be coming into their own by then. For 2014, Howard, Guzan and Hamid sound like good predictions to me. Its a good idea to give the most promising young keeper (at the time) some World Cup experience prior to 2018
Whoever brought up Tally Hall, you have a good eye. I like him a lot, if I was a Houston fan, I'd honestly rather have him in goal than ol' Dusty Bones. I like Cervi especially if he can work his way up at Celtic and potentially to a loan or transfer to be a #1 somewhere. 35 is fine for a keeper, we'll see how Tim's body holds up but he'll still be more athletic than Kasey was at that age. Van der Sar was upwards of 38/39 before he retired from international, and he's still considered one of the best in the world and doesn't look like slowing down any time soon.
I think it may be about time, but I'm also resigned to the fact that Dom is going to stick with his guys until it's been glaringly obvious for months that their backups are just better. That's not a shot at Dom, I think his loyalty is part of what gets guys to play so hard for him, but it does get a bit silly at times when people like my mom can see a clear difference, but Kinnear refuses to.
The numbers suggest that WC managers feel that 23 to 37 is roughly the effective age range for goalkeepers. So yeah they'll live with 35. My only issue is that although I think guys like Howard can still get it done at 35, it's ultimately unlikely to be his peak. That was probably this tournament, and he got hurt and it affected him.
agreed emphatically on Hamid. That guy has the inside line right now for that number three spot. Next down is probably the Seitz, Robles, Cervi tier. Seitz had so much promise but has a mare this year so far. Lets see if he can recover in time. Hopefully Cervi can get loaned out soon to make an impression. and Robles, he will be moving this summer. If he gets in the bundesliga, his case becomes very strong for #3