Well that would be misleading. Because the TRUTH would be that they only sent 4 out of a possible 5. The failure of Peru doesn't get swept under the rug.
Not by YOU, it doesn’t. No one remembers or cares that African teams are 1 for 3 in Inter-confederation playoffs.
That decision is on PER coach Gareca, not goalkeeper Gallese. Under Gareca, PER participated in 3 penalty shoot outs: 66% wins, 100% PER kicking last. June 17 2016: Copa America quarterfinals, 2-4 loss vs COL June 29 2019: Copa America quarterfinals, 4-5 win vs URU July 2nd 2021: Copa America quarterfinals, 4-3 win vs PAR Yesterday, PER decided to kick last after winning the coin toss. PER expected to win it the same way as before. Gareca subbed in inexperienced forward Valera at minute 116, and used him ahead of Trauco, who scored the winning penalty vs PAR in 2021. Gareca gambled twice against AUS, and it did not work.
I agree with Van City on this one. CONMEBOL's internal WC qualifying ended a few months ago. We are now in the inter-confederation stage, so confederations are competing against each other for advancement, just as they do at the World Cup at the group stage, knock-out stage, etc. The CONMEBOL team, Peru, failed on the field to advance, so their result should be included in any recap of CONMEBOL's WC performance against other confederations. As for how the media sees it, I don't think that's relevant to how confederation performance should correctly be evaluated. The media are driven by many things, but getting things right isn't too high on their list. .
And yet when you look at past results of World Cups, the qualifying stages are rarely, if ever, looked at. It’s all about the tournament proper, the finalists involved in the month-long festival of football that draws all the eyeballs. Like I said, no one remembers that Morocco were elimanted by Spain in the 1962 World Cup inter-confed playoff. No one remembers, no one cares and no one has ever taken it into consideration. Only until now after Peru lost to Australia has it suddenly become an issue. Why? Because straight up, it’s fun to pile on CONMEBOL, based on the tone of recent postings. No other reason.
People can try spinning it any way they find convenient but FIFA considers the inter-confederation playoffs as part of the qualifying process, not the main tournament itself.
I can't speak for others, but I've always considered it. As for whether the media included the IC playoffs in any calculations, I'm pretty sure some did, but in any case the media gets all sorts of things wrong, for all sorts of reasons, so I don't find their handling of the question very probative.
We aren't talking about what people remember. We are talking about statistical arguments. If you are arguing INTER CONFEDERATION STRENGTH based on how many teams you can qualify to the 2nd round. Then failure in an INTER CONFEDERATION playoff which directly effects how many teams each confederation qualifies to the 2nd round HAS TO BE INCLUDED.
Every time we play this game of looking at the portion of teams from a Confederation advancing past the group stages, we only look at teams that qualified for the final 32. Its been done like that in literally thousands of posts by hundreds of posters, upto and including last week. Even if it would help their argument to do so, posters never counted teams eliminated in the inter-continental playoffs ( https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/2022-fifa-world-cup-friendly-matches.2120177/page-32#post-40553718 ) But on Monday afternoon all those standard practices changed. I wonder why?
Hey, I love a good bashing of Conmebol every so often, but... According FIFA ranking rules, intercontinental play-off matches are 71% the value of Group/R16 WC matches. https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/f99da4f73212220/original/edbm045h0udbwkqew35a-pdf.pdf So, even FIFA confirms that confederation strength in intercontinental matches has less importance when played outside of a WC tournament.
“Inter-Confederation strength”? lol I’ve been arguing the whole time about the number of teams advancing from the group stage of the tournament proper to the round of 16. From this moment until December 18, teams eliminated during qualifying are no longer relevant, be it Peru, New Zealand, Ukraine, Italy, San Marino, Venezuela, Solomon Islands, Niger…they and others all had their shot of qualifying and failed. It’s now all about the 32 teams that will be showcased in November. Qualifying has its own set of statistics. The 2022 version is now finalized. The statistics for the 2022 World Cup finals is currently a blank sheet of paper waiting to be filled. And the five confederations being represented by the 32 finalists are hoping their teams will do their regions proud and give them a 100% success rate advancing out of the group stage.
In the last seconds of stoppage time against Portugal, a shot by Taremi missed the goal by inches. If it had gone in, Iran would not only have advanced, but finished on top of its group,. And the AFC's "advancement percentage" would have doubled from 20% to 40%. Conversely, Japan advanced ahead of Senegal in its group on fair play points. Both teams otherwise tied with 4 points and the same GD etc. If Senegal had advanced instead, CAF's representation would have jumped from 0 to 20% while the AFC's would have dropped from 20% to 0. To base any arguments on confederation strength on such small samples hugely influenced by coincidences is absurd. You want to get a realistic idea, you take the overall results by each confederation and points earned per match on average at the group stage. You at least then get a sample of semi-decent size that doesn't go potentially from 0-40% based on coincidences and such!
What changed is that I actually realized a flaw in what previous posters have been claiming. It isn't a crime to realize past mistakes. This applies to everyone else. Concacaf who failed to get Honduras through last time. That should count against them. Concacaf didn't have a 1 in 3 success rate in 2018. They in reality had a 1 in 4. That half spot IS A SPOT. If you fail to take it , that is FAILING TO QUALIFY for the 2nd round. It's a missed/failed opportunity just as much as a team actually playing the first round. Honduras couldn't beat Australia just like Peru couldn't beat Australia this time in international continental playoffs. Australia last time counts as a fail but Honduras doesn't? We just pretend that didnt happen ? And all this to compare confederation strength. That's absurd. These were both FAILED attempts to qualify for the knockout rounds.
That's why I personally look at multiple WCs. Again, AFC is 3 for 19 in the last 5 World Cups (excluding host teams). If Iran beats Portugal it would be 4-for-19. Still crap.
I guess we are not going to see eye-to-eye on this. Fortunately whether we include these playoffs or not it doesn't change the big picture much as CONMEBOL wins these playoffs most of the time, while OFC and AFC usually lose just like the WC proper.
To each his own. I consider the whole thing voodoo stats. You increase the sample size marginally by adding dated and arguably irrelevant data. After each World Cup group stage, you have the overall match results for each confederation. In that tournament, the strength of the confederations can be gleaned by points earned per game. 4 years later, and you have a new ball game. When ypu look back, you may notice trends and take the appropriate lessons from that too. What you guys prefer is what makes your team/confederation "look the best". That is fans being fans hiding behind voodoo stats. Not serious statistical analysis.
Will everybody stop jinxing us by calling us the winners of the WC in Qatar, as it for sure will make us the first ever to lose 4 finals on 4 continents, as one of my fellow Dutch posters wrote.