http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/04/03/central-winger-why-possession-stats-are-misleading...
Quite a bit of Premiership data and analysis to be found here including a fairly comprehensive justification for Stoke's style of play and a...
Here's a basic method. Take the goal expectancies of each side. Work out the poisson probabilities of each team scoring 0,1,2,3 etc goals in...
Hi Voros, it's a good point. But the effect is still there if you take those games out.It's also there in the English football legue cup(or...
HFE. taking the Champions league/European cup as an example. I've looked at around 700 two legged ties. 78 games ended level after 180...
Anyone attempting to rate club sides from different countries when they face each other in knockout tournaments may benefit from the following....
Re team dependent deviation. So called 'draw specialists' records in subsequent seasons.From the English divisions since '86. 'Draw...
I agree(i think). If you take all the 'draw specialists' from one season and look at their combined results the next season,they always end up...
Adding, 37.8-(0.4757*fav's win%)=Percentage chance of the outsider winning at both half and full time. So if a fav's true chance of winning...
You can certainly get a regression line to derive the likelyhood of say a fav winning at both HT and to still be winning at FT from the match odds...
Hi CJ, you can certainly tweak the poisson to better mimic reality,especially in it's ability to correctly predict the likelyhood of low...
The usual method would be to use the goal expectancies for each team that you used to derive the home win/away win/draw odds to derive correct...
That's just a quick and dirty 'does the theory roughly fit the data'. If you want more specific you have to use the 1.45(X^0.83),combined with...
Hi Sagy, I've looked again at the scatterplot for offsides verses goals and it's a mess.So I've chucked alot more individual games data at it and...
