What is the USMNT’s all-time results record? Well, you could Google it. Type “United States men’s national soccer team record” in the search box and the first link is to Wikipedia. There you will find a W-L-D record listed (not quite correct, as it turns out) by opponent and decade, with the data source given as RSSSF. Going back to your Google search results, a few links down you will find the excellent American Soccer History Archives with results listed through mid-2008, and a link to the National Soccer Hall of Fame, the official repository of US soccer history, where a few clicks will lead you to the U.S. MNT International Results and Lineups page, updated through July 2005. And of course there are always the ELO ratings USA country results page and the FIFA.com fixtures and results page, too. When you start comparing these different sources, you find many discrepancies in the data. Besides the usual typos, omissions, and duplications, probably the single largest source for these discrepancies is the determination of which matches are considered “official” by USSF. By definition, an official match is one between the full national teams of both teams participating in an international match; in practice, a match is official (or not) because the USSF says it is. In theory the Soccer Hall of Fame’s website should be the definitive source, but it also tends to be among the more error prone. By means of rigorous cross-referencing among the various data sources, I believe I have arrived at an accurate tally of the USMNT’s all-time record, including goals for and against, with the added bonus of strength of schedule ratings in the form of opponent ELO ratings and rankings: 1916-2009: Code: Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 537 215 117 205 47.3% 738 754 1.37 1.40 1650 36 Home 298 152 76 70 59.5% 488 303 1.64 1.02 1647 41 Away 178 44 32 102 30.7% 176 335 0.99 1.88 1593 43 Neutral 61 19 9 33 36.1% 74 116 1.21 1.90 1811 18 where: Code: MP matches played W Wins D Draws L Losses PPCT Points percentage = (3*W+D)/(3*MP) GF Goals For GA Goals Against GFA Goals For Average GAA Goals Against Average ORAT Median opponent ELO rating ORNK Median opponent ELO ranking Note that of the USA’s 537 official matches, 7 have gone to a penalty shoot-out tiebreaker to determine a victor. These 7 matches are counted as draws in the above table. The USA has a record of 4W against 3L in these shoot-outs (trivia question: the three losses came against only two opponents, can you name them?) . If these are recorded instead as wins and losses, then the all-time record would be 219W-110D-208L. Over the course of their history, the USA have been a whopping 1.51 goals per match better at home than on the road. More to say about this later. As indicated by the opponent median ranking and rating columns, the reason the performance in matches on neutral fields appears to be almost as bad as in away matches is probably due to the much stronger opponents encountered in the Copa Americas, Confederation Cups, and World Cups that constitute the bulk of the neutral field matches. Stay tuned, more to come.
So it took until early 2008 to have more wins than losses. If that's not proof of the amazing progress that has been made I don't know what is.
Yes, another milestone to look forward to next year or in 2011 is a return to a positive all-time goal differential, for the first time since 1928! The goal differential sank for 60 years to an all-time low of -192 in 1988, and has risen to the current -16 in the past 22 years. In fact, from the following tables you can see that the history of the USMNT really consists of two eras: the first, from 1916-1987, eminently forgettable except for the heroics at the 1930 and 1950 World Cups (and 1934 Qualifying, of course), and the modern era, from 1988 to present. The USA have played at least a dozen matches per year every year since 1988; prior to that they had played less than 10 per year every year except 1973. 1916-1987: Code: Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 142 36 27 79 31.7% 171 356 1.20 2.51 1586 34 Home 48 15 15 18 41.7% 66 99 1.38 2.06 1597 37 Away 76 14 11 51 23.2% 78 204 1.03 2.68 1571 36 Neutral 18 7 1 10 40.7% 27 53 1.50 2.94 1635 29 1988-2009: Code: Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 395 179 90 126 52.9% 567 398 1.44 1.01 1673 36 Home 250 137 61 52 62.9% 422 204 1.69 0.82 1656 41 Away 102 30 21 51 36.3% 98 131 0.96 1.28 1625 49 Neutral 43 12 8 23 34.1% 47 63 1.09 1.47 1826 15 Record by year: Code: YEAR MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 537 215 117 205 47.3% 738 754 1.37 1.40 1650 36 1916 2 1 1 0 66.7% 4 3 2.00 1.50 1549 19 1924 4 2 0 2 50.0% 5 8 1.25 2.00 1542 33 1925 2 1 0 1 50.0% 6 2 3.00 1.00 1606 24 1926 1 1 0 0 100.0% 6 2 6.00 2.00 1585 27 1928 2 0 1 1 16.7% 5 14 2.50 7.00 1761 15 1930 4 2 0 2 50.0% 10 10 2.50 2.50 1712 14 1934 2 1 0 1 50.0% 5 9 2.50 4.50 1742 18 1937 3 0 0 3 0.0% 6 19 2.00 6.33 1730 14 1947 2 0 0 2 0.0% 2 10 1.00 5.00 1673 25 1948 2 0 0 2 0.0% 0 16 0.00 8.00 1608 29 1949 5 1 1 3 26.7% 8 19 1.60 3.80 1780 12 1950 3 1 0 2 33.3% 4 8 1.33 2.67 1866 7 1952 1 0 0 1 0.0% 0 6 0.00 6.00 1837 8 1953 1 0 0 1 0.0% 3 6 3.00 6.00 1926 4 1954 4 2 0 2 50.0% 7 9 1.75 2.25 1526 50 1955 1 0 0 1 0.0% 2 3 2.00 3.00 1402 71 1957 4 0 0 4 0.0% 5 21 1.25 5.25 1641 27 1959 1 0 0 1 0.0% 1 8 1.00 8.00 1861 6 1960 2 0 1 1 16.7% 3 6 1.50 3.00 1777 17 1961 1 0 0 1 0.0% 0 2 0.00 2.00 1414 67 1964 1 0 0 1 0.0% 0 10 0.00 10.00 1910 3 1965 4 1 2 1 41.7% 4 5 1.00 1.25 1571 58 1968 9 4 1 4 48.1% 22 22 2.44 2.44 1385 91 1969 2 0 0 2 0.0% 0 3 0.00 1.50 1448 77 1972 4 0 1 3 8.3% 6 10 1.50 2.50 1659 37 1973 12 3 0 9 25.0% 5 22 0.42 1.83 1672 31 1974 2 0 0 2 0.0% 1 4 0.50 2.00 1699 27 1975 5 0 0 5 0.0% 1 22 0.20 4.40 1827 12 1976 8 1 5 2 33.3% 3 7 0.38 0.88 1532 58 1977 8 3 2 3 45.8% 7 11 0.88 1.38 1490 70 1978 3 0 1 2 11.1% 0 3 0.00 1.00 1565 53 1979 7 2 0 5 28.6% 9 20 1.29 2.86 1835 15 1980 6 2 2 2 44.4% 7 9 1.17 1.50 1532 60 1982 1 1 0 0 100.0% 2 1 2.00 1.00 1334 107 1983 1 1 0 0 100.0% 2 0 2.00 0.00 1481 72 1984 9 3 4 2 48.1% 11 9 1.22 1.00 1492 70 1985 8 2 3 3 37.5% 6 12 0.75 1.50 1522 64 1986 2 0 2 0 33.3% 1 1 0.50 0.50 1712 29 1987 3 1 0 2 33.3% 2 4 0.67 1.33 1623 44 1988 13 3 3 7 30.8% 9 16 0.69 1.23 1539 61 1989 12 6 3 3 58.3% 12 7 1.00 0.58 1482 72 1990 22 8 3 11 40.9% 29 31 1.32 1.41 1705 28 1991 17 8 5 4 56.9% 22 13 1.29 0.76 1592 49 1992 21 6 4 11 34.9% 21 27 1.00 1.29 1728 27 1993 34 10 11 13 40.2% 45 44 1.32 1.29 1599 50 1994 27 7 11 9 39.5% 30 28 1.11 1.04 1693 29 1995 14 5 3 6 42.9% 20 18 1.43 1.29 1783 22 1996 16 10 2 4 66.7% 28 19 1.75 1.19 1528 66 1997 18 5 7 6 40.7% 22 21 1.22 1.17 1596 53 1998 16 6 4 6 45.8% 15 13 0.94 0.81 1748 23 1999 13 7 2 4 59.0% 19 11 1.46 0.85 1779 21 2000 17 9 6 2 64.7% 34 11 2.00 0.65 1665 42 2001 15 6 3 6 46.7% 14 13 0.93 0.87 1679 40 2002 20 12 2 6 63.3% 34 18 1.70 0.90 1760 26 2003 16 10 2 4 66.7% 28 10 1.75 0.63 1679 39 2004 15 8 6 1 66.7% 28 9 1.87 0.60 1605 54 2005 20 13 4 3 71.7% 33 12 1.65 0.60 1642 49 2006 13 6 3 4 53.8% 20 14 1.54 1.08 1718 36 2007 18 12 1 5 68.5% 31 19 1.72 1.06 1747 29 2008 14 9 2 3 69.0% 30 8 2.14 0.57 1543 70 2009 24 13 3 8 58.3% 43 36 1.79 1.50 1712 36 More to come.
And when they did, it is shocking how thrown-together the rosters frequently were. The structure of US soccer barely even existed for most of the first 70 years. Every US fan should read Soccer in a Football World just to gain a perspective on how the US soccer structure is still in a relative infancy. Less than three decades ago it was roughly comparable to a third-world nation.
I have a list of every game and lineup, but I haven't updated it for a year or so. NoSix, I forget if it was you I talked with, but I remember me and somebody else both realized that the US soccer web site is off by one on the wins and losses and I never figured out what happened there. There are also a number of discrepancies for the lineups between the RSSSF and the hall of game that I've yet to figure out. See here for more detiails: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=544784
Correct, and repped! Colombia I would have known, but off the top of my head would never have guessed Denmark from the '94 Carlsberg Cup (friendly tournament).
I will do some digging to see what I can find out about the line-ups. If you could independently verify the number of matches and W-D-L that would be great. Here are the results by opponent, i.e. what I believe to be corrected version of the Wikipedia page info: Code: OPP MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA Total 537 215 117 205 47.3% 738 754 1.37 1.40 ARG 9 2 1 6 25.9% 8 29 0.89 3.22 ARM 1 1 0 0 100.0% 1 0 1.00 0.00 AUS 2 0 1 1 16.7% 0 1 0.00 0.50 AUT 2 1 0 1 50.0% 4 2 2.00 1.00 BRB 4 4 0 0 100.0% 20 0 5.00 0.00 BEL 3 1 0 2 33.3% 3 3 1.00 1.00 BER 8 6 0 2 75.0% 15 9 1.88 1.13 BOL 6 0 4 2 22.2% 3 6 0.50 1.00 BRA 15 1 0 14 6.7% 10 29 0.67 1.93 CMR 1 0 1 0 33.3% 0 0 0.00 0.00 CAN 29 12 9 8 51.7% 49 33 1.69 1.14 CAY 1 1 0 0 100.0% 8 1 8.00 1.00 CHI 8 3 1 4 41.7% 10 17 1.25 2.13 CHN 8 5 2 1 70.8% 17 7 2.13 0.88 COL 15 3 3 9 26.7% 11 19 0.73 1.27 CIS 2 1 0 1 50.0% 2 2 1.00 1.00 CRC 28 11 6 11 46.4% 31 34 1.11 1.21 CIV 1 1 0 0 100.0% 5 2 5.00 2.00 CUB 9 7 1 1 81.5% 28 10 3.11 1.11 CZE 1 0 0 1 0.0% 0 3 0.00 3.00 TCH 1 0 0 1 0.0% 1 5 1.00 5.00 DEN 6 1 3 2 33.3% 8 11 1.33 1.83 GDR 2 0 0 2 0.0% 3 5 1.50 2.50 ECU 10 2 4 4 33.3% 6 9 0.60 0.90 EGY 2 1 0 1 50.0% 4 3 2.00 1.50 SLV 20 14 5 1 78.3% 45 13 2.25 0.65 ENG 9 2 0 7 22.2% 8 35 0.89 3.89 EST 2 2 0 0 100.0% 5 0 2.50 0.00 FIN 1 1 0 0 100.0% 2 1 2.00 1.00 FRA 2 0 0 2 0.0% 0 9 0.00 4.50 GER 8 2 0 6 25.0% 11 18 1.38 2.25 GHA 1 0 0 1 0.0% 1 2 1.00 2.00 GRE 1 0 1 0 33.3% 1 1 1.00 1.00 GRN 3 3 0 0 100.0% 10 2 3.33 0.67 GUA 21 12 5 4 65.1% 29 15 1.38 0.71 HAI 16 5 5 6 41.7% 22 19 1.38 1.19 HON 16 11 3 2 75.0% 29 14 1.81 0.88 HUN 3 1 1 1 44.4% 2 2 0.67 0.67 ICE 6 2 2 2 44.4% 9 7 1.50 1.17 IRN 2 0 1 1 16.7% 2 3 1.00 1.50 IRL 8 2 2 4 33.3% 12 16 1.50 2.00 ISR 5 1 1 3 26.7% 6 13 1.20 2.60 ITA 7 0 3 4 14.3% 4 14 0.57 2.00 JAM 17 9 8 0 68.6% 29 10 1.71 0.59 JPN 2 1 0 1 50.0% 4 5 2.00 2.50 KUW 1 1 0 0 100.0% 2 0 2.00 0.00 LVA 1 1 0 0 100.0% 1 0 1.00 0.00 LIE 1 1 0 0 100.0% 4 1 4.00 1.00 LUX 1 1 0 0 100.0% 2 0 2.00 0.00 MKD 1 0 1 0 33.3% 0 0 0.00 0.00 MLT 1 1 0 0 100.0% 1 0 1.00 0.00 MTQ 1 1 0 0 100.0% 2 0 2.00 0.00 MEX 57 15 11 31 32.7% 65 125 1.14 2.19 MDA 2 1 1 0 66.7% 4 1 2.00 0.50 MAR 3 0 0 3 0.0% 2 6 0.67 2.00 ANT 2 1 1 0 66.7% 4 0 2.00 0.00 NED 3 0 0 3 0.0% 0 5 0.00 1.67 NZL 2 2 0 0 100.0% 4 2 2.00 1.00 NGA 1 1 0 0 100.0% 3 2 3.00 2.00 PRK 1 0 0 1 0.0% 1 2 1.00 2.00 NIR 1 0 0 1 0.0% 0 5 0.00 5.00 NOR 5 2 1 2 46.7% 8 14 1.60 2.80 PAN 8 6 2 0 83.3% 18 4 2.25 0.50 PAR 5 2 2 1 53.3% 8 5 1.60 1.00 PER 5 2 1 2 46.7% 5 5 1.00 1.00 POL 16 7 2 7 47.9% 20 34 1.25 2.13 POR 5 2 1 2 46.7% 5 5 1.00 1.00 ROU 4 1 1 2 33.3% 4 4 1.00 1.00 RUS 4 0 2 2 16.7% 1 4 0.25 1.00 KSA 6 3 1 2 55.6% 9 8 1.50 1.33 SCO 6 1 2 3 27.8% 3 13 0.50 2.17 SVK 1 0 0 1 0.0% 0 1 0.00 1.00 RSA 2 2 0 0 100.0% 5 0 2.50 0.00 KOR 6 1 2 3 27.8% 5 7 0.83 1.17 URS 4 0 1 3 8.3% 3 10 0.75 2.50 ESP 4 1 0 3 25.0% 3 6 0.75 1.50 SWE 7 4 0 3 57.1% 10 9 1.43 1.29 SUI 7 1 3 3 28.6% 5 8 0.71 1.14 THA 1 1 0 0 100.0% 1 0 1.00 0.00 TRI 21 16 3 2 81.0% 33 10 1.57 0.48 TUN 1 0 1 0 33.3% 1 1 1.00 1.00 TUR 2 0 1 1 16.7% 2 3 1.00 1.50 UKR 3 0 1 2 11.1% 1 3 0.33 1.00 URU 6 2 2 2 44.4% 6 8 1.00 1.33 VEN 3 2 1 0 77.8% 7 3 2.33 1.00 WAL 1 1 0 0 100.0% 2 0 2.00 0.00 YUG 1 0 0 1 0.0% 0 1 0.00 1.00
And sometimes worse than that. Consider what surely must be the darkest day in US soccer history, March 17, 1973: Bermuda 4: USA 0 A certain Mike Renshaw was a substitute in that match. The Soccer Hall of Fame is so ashamed they moved the match summary from 1973 to 1963, presumably so no-one can find it.
Record since is 18W-3D-9L, so that gives 215W-117D-206L, so there is an extra loss somewhere, maybe we can find it using the by opponent chart. Looking at Dave Litterer's all time results pages, based on my research I added +'s (considered unofficial by USSF) to the following matches: May 23, 1987 0-2 L vs Canada (Olympic qualifier) May 30, 1987 3-0 W vs Canada (Olympic qualifier) June 19, 1988 2-3 L vs Nigeria (Nigerian club team, not national team) Sep 20, 1988 0-0 D vs South Korea (Olympic qualifier) Maybe the Nigeria friendly is the extra loss?
According to the RSSSF, it was a "Nigerian XI", i.e. club all-star squad. http://www.rsssf.com/tablesu/usa-intres-det80.html The match is included on the hall of fame website, but it clearly does not meet their own definition of "official". FWIW, FIFA.com has the other 13 results from 1988 listed on the HOF website, but not the Nigeria match. Same thing for ELO. Anyways, I am going to call it a night. Will spend some time tomorrow looking into your line-up questions, and will let you know what I find.
Starting from 1995, and working my way back in time: 18) Sam’s Army ratings poll confirms Moore entered as a sub on 46’, no Berhalter http://www.sams-army.com/Nats-Results.html 17) According to his profile, in 1994, Klopas started 12 games, played in 15. Since according to the HOF, he made 12 starts and only 2 other substitute appearances, the third must have been this match. http://ussoccerplayers.typepad.com/ussoccerplayers/klopas-frankie.html 16) FIFA official match report confirms Kinnear entered as a sub on 73’ http://www.fifa.com/tournaments/archive/tournament=101/edition=4297/matches/match=21303/report.html Only 15 more to go. I will search more later and post again tonight. More to come on the USMNT all-time record as well.
Here is the all-time record broken out by competition type: Code: COMP MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 537 215 117 205 47.3% 738 754 1.37 1.40 1650 36 F 309 102 74 133 41.0% 377 461 1.22 1.49 1687 30 OF 3 1 0 2 33.3% 3 14 1.00 4.67 1903 2 CQ 2 1 1 0 66.7% 4 2 2.00 1.00 1671 39 CF 61 40 8 13 69.9% 104 55 1.70 0.90 1611 49 CC 15 6 1 8 42.2% 20 20 1.33 1.33 1820 15 WCQ 122 59 30 33 56.6% 203 151 1.66 1.24 1535 64 WCF 25 6 3 16 28.0% 27 51 1.08 2.04 1816 16 where: Code: F Friendly OF Olympic Finals CQ Continental Qualifier CF Continental Finals CC Confederations Cup WCQ World Cup Qualifier WCF World Cup Finals Note the high correlation between the points percentage earned in the different competitions and the median opponent ELO ranking (-0.75) and rating (0.77), respectively. To observe this effect directly, the following tables show the all-time record broken out by ELO ranking and rating increment: By ELO rating: Code: RAT MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA Total 537 215 117 205 47.3% 738 754 1.37 1.40 <2200 2 0 0 2 0.0% 2 4 1.00 2.00 <2100 11 2 1 8 21.2% 7 23 0.64 2.09 <2000 40 5 2 33 14.2% 26 109 0.65 2.73 <1900 73 16 20 37 31.1% 67 130 0.92 1.78 <1800 102 37 20 45 42.8% 132 154 1.29 1.51 <1700 76 23 16 37 37.3% 93 126 1.22 1.66 <1600 112 52 30 30 55.4% 158 114 1.41 1.02 <1500 73 43 21 9 68.5% 136 61 1.86 0.84 <1400 30 21 6 3 76.7% 64 23 2.13 0.77 <1300 15 13 1 1 88.9% 37 8 2.47 0.53 <1200 3 3 0 0 100.0% 16 2 5.33 0.67 By ELO ranking: Code: RNK MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA Total 537 215 117 205 47.3% 738 754 1.37 1.40 <=10 78 10 8 60 16.2% 61 204 0.78 2.62 <=20 79 23 18 38 36.7% 80 131 1.01 1.66 <=30 80 23 18 39 36.3% 104 134 1.30 1.68 <=40 47 18 7 22 43.3% 62 82 1.32 1.74 <=50 38 17 9 12 52.6% 56 40 1.47 1.05 <=60 46 18 16 12 50.7% 59 44 1.28 0.96 <=70 44 21 14 9 58.3% 65 32 1.48 0.73 <=80 40 22 11 7 64.2% 56 34 1.40 0.85 <=90 27 18 7 2 75.3% 57 18 2.11 0.67 <=100 21 13 5 3 69.8% 38 16 1.81 0.76 <=110 13 11 2 0 89.7% 30 9 2.31 0.69 <=120 10 8 1 1 83.3% 21 4 2.10 0.40 <=140 9 8 1 0 92.6% 29 3 3.22 0.33 <=200 5 5 0 0 100.0% 20 3 4.00 0.60
That was me The thread we posted our work in is around here somewhere... I've also slacked off this year, so I have some homework to do before my numbers are current...
So if you've read this far, you are probably thinking that all of these tables of data are wonderful and all, but what are they possibly good for? Well, this is an analysis forum, and I would argue that the answers to many of the questions that are endlessly debated on this forum can be found within this data, if you invest a little effort to look. Still unconvinced? Consider a question that has come up recently in multiple threads and inevitably sparks pages and pages of impassioned debate: which team is the best USA team in history, Bruce Arena's 2002 team or Bob Bradley's current squad? Everyone has an opinion, but what do the data say? Let's have a look. Arena (1999-2002) Code: Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 65 34 13 18 59.0% 101 53 1.55 0.82 1724 27 Home 38 26 7 5 74.6% 72 21 1.89 0.55 1723 28 Away 19 3 6 10 26.3% 17 24 0.89 1.26 1717 28 Neutral 8 5 0 3 62.5% 12 8 1.50 1.00 1824 17 Bradley (2007-2009) Code: Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 56 34 6 16 64.3% 104 63 1.86 1.13 1712 36 Home 31 24 5 2 82.8% 76 27 2.45 0.87 1631 48 Away 17 8 1 8 49.0% 18 19 1.06 1.12 1727 34 Neutral 8 2 0 6 25.0% 10 17 1.25 2.13 1987 4 From the first row of the first table, we find that Arena's 2002 team scored 1.55 goals per game and conceded 0.82 goals per game for a goal differential of 0.73 goals per game. From the first row of the second table, we find that Bob Bradley's current team has scored 1.86 goals per game and conceded 1.13 goals per game for a goal differential of, you guessed it, 0.73 goals per game. I am not making this up: over the course of 121 games, the data indicate that the two teams are virtually identical in strength. Now the fans of the 2002 team (and Poisson distribution aficionados), will point out that Arena's team compiled their record against slightly more difficult opponents, with a median ELO rating 12 pts higher than Bradley's team faced, and in fact even though the goal differential is identical, because Arena's teams conceded fewer goals, the expected points percentage for Arena's team is actually slightly higher than for Bradley's team, 63.1% vs 62.0%. The Bradley fans, however, will counter that Bradley's actual win percentage is higher: 64.3% vs 59.0%. In other words, the data suggest that perhaps Arena's team was slightly better, and Bradley's team is slightly luckier. But that would really be splitting hairs - within the margin of error of the analysis, the two teams are effectively equal in strength!
Can you compare the five distinct cycle teams? Bora: 1991 - 1994 Sampson: 1995 - 1998 Arena, pt 1: 1999-2002 Arena, pt 2: 2003-2006 Bradley: 2007-present I think this would give us a better sense of two things: 1) The rate of our progress over the past 20 years 2) Some additional context for the WC 2006 performance
I did a more primitive version of this over the summer. My numbers were not updated through the end of 2009. I also found that BB's current cycle is essentially = to Arena's first cycle, and better than Arena's 2nd cycle. Anyway, Rep to NoSix, again.
No question that Bora's and Sampson's teams were weaker than what followed, but I will do the calculations and post here for reference's sake. Here's the Arena, pt 2 data: Arena (2003-2006): Code: Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 64 37 15 12 65.6% 109 45 1.70 0.70 1639 48 Home 43 30 9 4 76.7% 87 19 2.02 0.44 1609 52 Away 14 6 4 4 52.4% 18 17 1.29 1.21 1575 58 Neutral 7 1 2 4 23.8% 4 9 0.57 1.29 1867 11 Now this requires some explanation. The 2006 team compiled a better goal differential, 1.00, versus significantly weaker competition than either the 2002 team or current team faced. Fortunately, making use of the Poisson distribution, it is possible to translate back and forth between goal differential and ELO ratings points. It turns out that 1.70 GF, 0.70 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1639 is the equivalent of 1.55 GF, 0.82 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1688. Since the 2002 team compiled 1.55 GF, 0.82 GA against opponents with a 1724 rating, the 2002 team was stronger. Similarly, comparing 2006 against the current team, 1.70 GF, 0.70 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1639 is the equivalent of 1.86 GF, 1.13 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1696. Since the current team compiled 1.86 GF, 1.13 GA against opponents with a 1712 rating, the current team is stronger.
Nice analysis. Must spread rep, etc., etc. See the post above this one for the comparison to Arena's 2006 squad.
Here is a summary table comparing the team's record during each of the last 5 World Cup cycles: Totals Code: Coach MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK M 99 31 31 37 41.8% 118 112 1.19 1.13 1657 35 S 64 26 16 22 49.0% 85 71 1.33 1.11 1664 35 A1 65 34 13 18 59.0% 101 53 1.55 0.82 1724 27 A2 64 37 15 12 65.6% 109 45 1.70 0.70 1639 48 B 56 34 6 16 64.3% 105 62 1.88 1.11 1712 36 Clearly, Milutinovic's and Sampson's teams had poorer records against weaker opponents compared to Arena1 and Bradley. As remarked by Mr. Martin, note the curiously weak opponents of Arena2, compared to Arena1 and Bradley. Here is the detailed break down by match location for each team: Code: Milutinovic (1991-1994) Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 99 31 31 37 41.8% 118 112 1.19 1.13 1657 35 Home 70 25 25 20 47.6% 91 64 1.30 0.91 1676 34 Away 23 5 3 15 26.1% 18 40 0.78 1.74 1595 50 Neutral 6 1 3 2 33.3% 9 8 1.50 1.33 1738 27 Sampson (1995-1998) Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 64 26 16 22 49.0% 85 71 1.33 1.11 1664 35 Home 40 21 10 9 60.8% 62 40 1.55 1.00 1664 34 Away 14 3 4 7 31.0% 14 17 1.00 1.21 1572 58 Neutral 10 2 2 6 26.7% 9 14 0.90 1.40 1810 19 Arena (1999-2002) Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 65 34 13 18 59.0% 101 53 1.55 0.82 1724 27 Home 38 26 7 5 74.6% 72 21 1.89 0.55 1723 28 Away 19 3 6 10 26.3% 17 24 0.89 1.26 1717 28 Neutral 8 5 0 3 62.5% 12 8 1.50 1.00 1824 17 Arena (2003-2006) Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 64 37 15 12 65.6% 109 45 1.70 0.70 1639 48 Home 43 30 9 4 76.7% 87 19 2.02 0.44 1609 52 Away 14 6 4 4 52.4% 18 17 1.29 1.21 1575 58 Neutral 7 1 2 4 23.8% 4 9 0.57 1.29 1867 11 Bradley (2007-2009) Loc MP W D L PPCT GF GA GFA GAA ORAT ORNK Total 56 34 6 16 64.3% 105 62 1.88 1.11 1712 36 Home 31 24 5 2 82.8% 76 27 2.45 0.87 1631 48 Away 17 8 1 8 49.0% 19 18 1.12 1.06 1727 34 Neutral 8 2 0 6 25.0% 10 17 1.25 2.13 1987 4