WWC 2007 Seeding Thread

Discussion in 'Women's World Cup' started by SJJ, Jan 2, 2007.

  1. hasselhoff

    hasselhoff Member

    Mar 22, 2005
    This is what I thought at first, too, but the procedure document is so vague in its wording that I'm not sure now. After saying Korea DPR goes to B, it then says (bolded sections are my words):

    -The teams from AFC will be drawn into a group that does not have a team from AFC, in the order available from left to right.

    OK, that seems straightforward.

    -The team from which is not from AFC will be drawn into a group with a team from AFC.

    This seems very vague. It doesn't say the team will go to China's group, just that it will go to a group with an AFC team. Say Brazil is drawn from X into Pot 2, then Brazil is drawn first from Pot 2. It can't go into A, which has no AFC team, but it can go into B, which has Korea DPR. This puts three teams into B, but follows the letter of the rule. Then Australia and Japan would be drawn into A and C, and D would get the first team drawn from Pot 3.

    This seems unlikely, but see below.


    -Pot X/Canada may not be drawn in the same group as USA.

    This is the one that really confuses me, because if the interpretation that the PotX team that goes into Pot 2 must go into Group D is correct, there's no need for this bullet. Canada would always go into D if drawn into Pot 2. If my interpretation above is correct, then the bullet is needed because the Pot X team could go into the USA's group.

    In this scenario, Group B could get two teams from Pot 2 and none from Pot 4. There's nothing in the Pot 4 section saying each Pot 4 team is assigned to a different group.

    This is why I said earlier that the rules are incredibly vague. I think this interpretation is valid (though probably wrong) given the information released by FIFA.

    I suppose it doesn't really matter, since we'll find out soon enough.
     
  2. hasselhoff

    hasselhoff Member

    Mar 22, 2005
    I just read ussoccer.com's take on the draw, and I'm even more confused now.
     
  3. CAFAN

    CAFAN Member

    May 30, 2003
    "Therefore, Brazil and Canada can't wind up together in China's group. (You think Canada might be happy about that?!)"

    Canada's direct style works well against Brazil. They played Brazil twice in 2003 before the last WWC and beat them twice - both games 2-1. Even a development team that Canada sent to the Pan Am Games that year managed to rebound from a 5-0 loss in the round robin to take Brazil into OT in the medal rounds. Of course, you never know with Brazil. Much depends on their preparation after years of NT inactivity.
     
  4. FCMB

    FCMB Member

    Nov 26, 2006
    Beirut, Lebanon
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Lebanon
    Its done:

    Groups:

    A: Germany - Japan - England - Argentina
    B: USA - North Korea - Sweden - Nigeria
    C: Norway - Australia - Canada - Ghana
    D: China - New Zealand - Brazil - Denmark

    • Group B is excatcly the same as Group B in the 2003 WC, USA, North Korea and Nigieria now after 1999 and 2003 third time in row in the same group.
    • Three teams of Group A (except England) played against each other in 2003
    • Australia and Ghana again after 99 and 03 together.
     
  5. SteinL

    SteinL New Member

    Aug 2, 2004
    Norway
    Group B is obviously the "group of death", while Norway in group C seems to be in the easiest group.
     
  6. Charge!

    Charge! Member

    May 7, 2001
    BSG 75
    Same exact group the US drew in '03. Same result, probably too (US and Sweden advancing :D ). IMO, England's got a puncher's chance of getting to the knockout round with Germany in A. Norway and I'll say Canada in C, with Brazil and Denmark out of D.
     
  7. btharner

    btharner Member

    Jan 22, 2007
    Sunbury, Pa.
    Suffice it to say, I'm very disappointed with the outcome of the draw. I followed it on FIFA.com's tracker and, if the teams came out in the exact same order as the graphic indicated, some teams were placed where they shouldn't have. I'd like to know why Brazil was put into group D when they came out second in Pot B, which should have sent them to group A since Korea DPR was first assigned to group B. When I have the opportunity I'm going to go back and reconstruct the see if there are any inconsistencies other than that.

    I apologize if if anyone feels I am getting mad over nothing. It just ticks me off that you wait four years for another tournament to come around and, in the USA's case, it's just a re-run of 2003 and a near three-run of 1999.
     
  8. shreddir

    shreddir Member

    Mar 15, 2005
    You should've watched live Chinese TV CCTV-5 over peer 2 peer software. The FIFA announcer was explaining why this or that team had to go into what group after they fished the balls out of the bowls. Since I tuned in late I didn't see the exact reason why Brazil got sent to D though.
     
  9. btharner

    btharner Member

    Jan 22, 2007
    Sunbury, Pa.
    Okay, I'm going to look like an idiot now. I forgot Brazil was put in the pot with the other Asian teams, so they should have gone into China's group so that Japan and Australia couldn't be drawn there. My bad, I shouldn't try to figure out a FIFA draw just minutes after waking up, if you want to believe that lame excuse.
     
  10. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    USA. Sweden. North Korea. Ranked 1,4, and 5.

    That's 3 of the top 5 ranked teams. You bet you can call that the Group of Death.

    Mind, I'd rather have North Korea than Brazil in spite of the ranking (I'm sure I'm not alone there) but that's one tough group there. And Nigeria is the one team from the last Pot that seems capable of pulling off a surprise on any given day.

    I sure hope someone will demand an answer as to why Germany and North Korea were exempted from having to play each other in the group stage.

    It sure jacked up the odds that Germany would come out with a far easier group than at least one of the other seeds.
     
  11. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Besides Group B (the US group), China is the other seed to get a tough draw.

    It's a little screwy evaluating this group because, for one thing, China, the official seed, is the 3rd seed in the group based on FIFA's rankings.

    Ignoring that for a minute and seeing this from China's point of view - they're facing the the 6th and 8th ranked teams in their group, and we know Brazil may well be stronger than their ranking (because they play so few games as a national team in non-Olympic and non-World Cup years, their rating tends to suffer.) They are very dangerous and at the 2004 Olympics they showed they were one of the elite teams while making it to the Gold Medal game.

    Even as the 3rd seed in the group at #8 in the FIFA rankings, that's significantly higher than England at #12 in Group A and Australia at #14 in Group C, the third seeds in their respective groups.
     
  12. Leenstra11

    Leenstra11 Member

    Sep 24, 2005
    Why would that be? When was the last time you had a chance to evaluate North Korea or Brazil?
     
  13. Nillan

    Nillan New Member

    Apr 30, 2005
    Lund Sweden
    Club:
    LdB FC Malmö
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    Somehow i knew that Sweden would end up i a group with Usa yet again.
    The same group as 2003 :eek: this is ridiculous.
    Swedish tv 4 had Solveig Gulbrandsen - Norway Ariane Hingst- Germany
    and Victoria Svensson - Sweden as guests in this wc draw tv show
    both Solveig and Ariane belive that group B is the toughest and they are
    satisfied with there draw and groups.
     
  14. FCMB

    FCMB Member

    Nov 26, 2006
    Beirut, Lebanon
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Lebanon
    Looking at the draw I think that there will be two European Duels in the QF. Germany should finish first in Group A and will meet Sweden - Norway will meet Denmark.
     
  15. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, it's wildly speculative on my part - you're right about that of course. But that's kind of built into the discussion, isn't it? I mean, we can't really talk about Groups of Death here without making some speculative assumptions about some teams we haven't seen in a while.

    Be that as it may - here's a few reasons:

    1) Brazil made it to the last Olympic Finals (which is more than North Korea's done), where...

    2) I think we all recall Brazil outplaying the US for long stretches of time with a superb display of dribbling and offensive flair during the Gold Medal Game.

    3) a couple of Brazil's stars (Marta and Elaine) have been key players in making Umea (sorry don't know how to make the diacritical little "o" in Umea) one of the top club teams in the world the last few years. (Where's those darn Damallsvenskan Rivalry Board jokers, Jocasta and Hagabo, to back me up on this?!)

    4) Brazil, led by 17-year old Marta, made it to the quarter-finals in 2003, where they lost a tense match to eventual runner-up Sweden on a free kick in the 53rd minute by Malin Andersson. (Ah, more Swedish glory - surely this will lure those Damn Allsvenskan jokers over to this board)

    5) Marta, Cristiane, and a couple other players really made an impression on me that none of the North Koreans have. It's kind of repeating an earlier point, but take Marta, for example. We're talking about someone who is seriously, deservedly, a player of the year candidate, year-in, year-out.
     
  16. DCUPopeAndLillyFan

    Apr 20, 2000
    Colorado
    The strange thing is the chances against the US drawing the exact same group was only 26:1. 1 in 2 chance of getting N Korea, 1 in 3 Sweden, and 2 in 9 Nigeria (chances of getting Argentina were better than getting anyone else). That's 2 in 54, or 1 in 27. That's the problem with the women's cup, the field isn't deep enough to create a lot of variety year to year. The odds of a repeat men's group has to be at least 10x longer.

    Unless you really believe New Zealand is better than Nigeria, the US drew the toughest group it could possibly draw with the given setup.

    I wonder how much attention England-Germany and England-Argentina will get in Britain on the women's side?
     
  17. Leenstra11

    Leenstra11 Member

    Sep 24, 2005
    Brazil, on current form, are the second weakest team in the tournament.
    They barely qualified out of SA as a second place finisher and had problems in all matches. Argentina dominated them in their 2-0 win.
    If Brazil was in NA, Europe or Asia, they would have problems.

    Marta was not the best player in the world last year. She was not even in the top 5 in Sweden. She was not even the most important player at Umea IK last year.

    Thanks to Puma, she IS the best marketed and promoted female player in the world.
    A sort of Beckham of women's football.
    She is a highly entertaining attacking player with a lot of room to improve tactically, especially when Umea or Brazil have to defend.

    Don't let the hype fool you. While the women's football moved forward in the last 4 years, Brazil stayed back. Sure they have good players, but its a team sport.
     
  18. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think you've been hit over the head too many times by those Dutch women with their field hockey sticks...(!)

    On current form "the second weakest team in the tournament." Yes, does that mean any of us, if we could pick our opponents, would "draft" Brazil 2nd. Ahead of New Zealand, Ghana, Nigeria, even Argentina who they lost to? Want to take your chances with them over Japan, Australia, England...?

    I think that shows how inaccurate the rankings are when it comes to Brazil. They can lose to us (the US) 5-0 in a "meaningless" exhibition and then battle it out on even terms through 2 overtimes of the Olympic Gold Medal match. The problem with Brazil, as several have mentioned, is they simply don't keep the team together and train and play when there isn't a World Cup or Olympics going on. If you look at FIFA's site, the Brazilian women did not play a single game in 2005 and 2006 until the qualifying tournament began in November of 2006.

    So sometimes they're rusty. And yes it's even possible for them to never come together as a team, but when they do (and they have) - they are one of the most dangerous teams in the women's game.

    "Barely qualified" out of CONMEBOL?

    Here's Brazil's results (from FIFA) in CONMEBOL after not having played in all of 2005 and the first 10 months of 2006:

    Brazil 4-1 Paraguay
    Brazil 2-0 Peru
    Brazil 6-1 Bolivia
    Brazil 6-0 Venezuela
    Brazil 6-0 Uruguay
    Brazil 6-0 Paraguay
    Brazil 0-2 Argentina

    I'm not even sure if Marta played all these games as she was under contract with Umea (ugh, sorry again for lacking the diacritical little "o").

    As for Marta, maybe if I hem and haw, hmmmn... and stall around for a little while... (and what was that about Puma you say...?)
     
  19. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting.

    But while it's interesting (even exasperating) that the US drew exactly the same group as before, what's more important was drawing a group that included North Korea and either Sweden or Denmark (the teams ranked #4,5, and 6).

    The odds of getting North Korea and Sweden was 1 out of 6 (or 16.7%). But the odds of getting North Korea and Sweden or Denmark was 1 out of 3 = 33%.

    Germany had 0% chance of that.

    What I'm trying to figure out now was the comparative odds between the US and Germany of drawing simply Sweden or Denmark.

    The US had a 67% chance of getting either Sweden or Denmark, but I'm confused as to how to figure out Germany's odds of getting one or the other.
     
  20. JanBalk

    JanBalk Member+

    Jun 9, 2004
    Uppsala, Sweden
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    She didn't play any of them, Umeå needed her for the UEFA CUP semi finals and Brazil agreed to leave her in Umeå (Umeå let Elanie leave and she played in those qualification games).
     
  21. Nillan

    Nillan New Member

    Apr 30, 2005
    Lund Sweden
    Club:
    LdB FC Malmö
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    kolabear i am with you when it comes to Marta and Brazil, do not for one moment think that Brazil is easy picking.
    But on the other hand neither is North Korea, they won the U-20 WC in russia and have young, fast and great players.
    Non of these two countries should be under estimated.

    Not only do Sweden get a though draw, we have to travel the furthest as well
    Chengdu and Tianjin.

    Talk about not getting a break :rolleyes:
    And should Sweden make it out of the group, as nr 2 we have to face Germany
    in a QF.
    If they make it, this would be one hell of a achievement.
    Battle on :cool:
     
  22. DCUPopeAndLillyFan

    Apr 20, 2000
    Colorado
    1 in 3. There was a 1 in 2 chance they would get another European team. If they did, it was 2 in 3 they would get Sweden or Denmark. 1*2 in 2*3 = 1 in 3. Same for Norway.
     
  23. DCUPopeAndLillyFan

    Apr 20, 2000
    Colorado
    Not sure what you're getting at here - you don't travel any more than your opponents will have in group play. What may be challenging is that you have to play Korea DPR in Tainjin - the closest site to Korea. Curious as to not only what kind of support N Korea will have there, but whether any S Koreans will come over to support them too (Same large group of Koreans supported both sides here in 2003).
     
  24. greenlion

    greenlion Member

    Apr 22, 2004
    CHINA
    Club:
    Beijing Guoan
    Nat'l Team:
    China PR
    we have about 5m Korean (Chinese nationality) living in north China
     
  25. Nillan

    Nillan New Member

    Apr 30, 2005
    Lund Sweden
    Club:
    LdB FC Malmö
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    Well i didn´t mean that Sweden will travel more, i meant that if Sweden was to play in another group the flights would´t be that long, and no i Sweden wont travel more than Us, and yes Tianjin is close to Korea.
    US got along flight as well in Shanghai against Nigeria.
     

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