World Cup Expansion to 48 Teams (Update: FIFA Council Agrees 2026 Slot Allocation)

The opener and Final are in the USA (the narrative is that there will be "3 opening games is BS IMO, the USA will be the top seed, this is a USA+ friends World cup, so it is only logical that the USA would get the most benefits of being the host.

 

Not if we go to 3 "final groups" where only the top 2 qualify, shit if Concacaf gets 6 spots, you can make it 4 groups of 4/6 with only 1st place qualifying directly and the four 2nd places playing each other for the other 2 spots.

They will be very weak groups for sure.

Say

Costa Rica
Jamaica
Nicaragua
Puerto Rico (are they FIFA eligible?)
Martinique
Cayman Islands.

 

The groups will be week... but in this scenario CR should finish first. It will be a battle for second. More meaningful games for the mid tier could push Concacaf to be a stronger region. I think the Nations League will help too.

 

Now if Conmebol gets 6 or 7 spots, they WTF, qualifying will be a joke towards the end.

 

FIFA has proposed that Conmebol will get 6...
https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/new...878254.html?intcmp=fifacom_hp_module_news_top

I am not sure if they have finalized this yet???

 

Although looking at last years conmebol qualifying 5 points separated 2nd and 6th. While 2 points separated 3rd and 6th. So it could still be competitive at the end for most of the teams.

 

The qualifying games will still lose meaning for teams like USA and Mexico because there is no realistic way they would not finish top 2 in such weak qualifying groups.

I think 3 HEXs would be a bit much. Two HEXs would seem to be the way to go starting in 2030. Top 3 qualify and 4th place teams play-off for the inter-confederational playoff spot. Although they would lose the USA-Mexico clashes. (For 2026 they can keep the current format since there will still be just 3 teams qualifying (by merit) plus 2 playoff teams).

 

The recommendation posted above says 6 for Concacaf, so 3 groups of 4 (12 teams) wold be better than 2 groups of 6 (12 teams) since it would cut back on meaningless games at the end.

But Concacaf also wants more teams to play more games, that is why I think they may do 3 groups of 6.

Will there still be intercontinental playoffs? I was under the impression that they were going away.



Edit: finishing top 2 in a group of 4 is more complicated than finishing top 3 in a group of 6, less games means less of an opportunity to recover from an unexpected bad start.

So if the goal is to create more drama for Mex, USA, CR then 3 groups of 4 would probably help.

 

fvck, just when you think it can not get any dumber, then they have this.

*Play-off tournament for two remaining slots
*The above allocation accounts for 46 of the 48 participating teams. The proposal reviewed by the Bureau of the Council includes a play-off tournament involving six teams to decide the last two FIFA World Cup berths:

- One team per confederation with the exception of UEFA + one additional team from the confederation of the host country;

- Two teams to be seeded based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking. The seeded teams will play for a FIFA World Cup berth against the winners of the first two knockout games involving the four unseeded teams;

- Tournament to be played in the host country(ies) and to be used as a test event for the FIFA World Cup;

- Existing play-off window of November 2025 suggested as tentative date for the 2026 edition.

 

Yep... it looks like Conmebol could have 7 if/when they win the playoff. CONCACAF could have 2 teams in this playoff in 2026. This 6 team playoff is going to be a bunch of really weak teams.

 

Yup, except for the CONMEBOL representative. Which is why this proposed allocation basically means we would have 7 CONMEBOL teams in the final tournament.

 

Well the US did finish 5th in this hex behind Panama and Honduras as well as Costa Rica. The US should finish first or second in theory anyway.

 

It was also announced a while back that the Concacaf president wants to restructure qualifying so the teams at the bottom get more games every cycle. I think the change could come for the 2026 cycle just so these weak teams can play more meaningful games.

 

I agree with that, but "more" should be no more than 12 teams playing in the final round. After that the countries are ridiculously tiny in CONCACAF.

 

Question: Regardless of the allocation that is determined by FIFA, do each confederation organise their own qualifications without any involvement from FIFA, or do they have a say or at least recommendations regarding the way the teams classify?

 

The confederations propose the format of their continents' WC preliminary competitions which are then subject to approval by the FIFA NT Competitions' Committee because the WC is a FIFA competition.

 

The proposal has a six nation playoff tournament to decide the last two spots. They will probably play this in the host nation just before the draw and get rid of the confederations cup. The format is one nation from each confederation (but not UEFA) plus one extra nation from the host confederation. The format is that the bottom four ranked nations will play one knockout round, with the winners playing one of the two top ranked nations for a spot (4 matches in total).

 

Perhaps in 12 years, the level of play in this region will improve to the point where qualifying will still be a challenge for the USA and Mexico. As far as the rivalry between the top teams in CONCACAF, the Nations League should offer meaningful games in that regard.

 

Obviously qualifying will be changed but I was curious as to who else would be in this World Cup. Based on their place in whatever the last qualifying structure was and goal differential.

AFC would add Syria, Uzbekistan and UAE.
CAF would add DR Congo, Burkina Faso, Uganda and Ivory Coast.
CONC would add Honduras, USA and T&T.
CONM would add Chile.
UEFA would add Greece and Ireland.
New Zealand would qualify.

The six team playoff would be China, Zambia, Guatemala, Paraguay, Solomon Islands and Italy. UEFA doesn't get a playoff spot but since they are hosting I would expect them to get one as host confed.

 

Italy was the best UEFA qualifier among those that didn’t qualify. Ireland actually had the second-worst record among second place teams.

 

During the last round of qualifying, both Greece and Ireland scored at least one goal in their series, Italy did not score at all. That's why I added them as automatic. The UEFA team added to the playoff (as host confed they would get one) came down to Italy and Northern Ireland. I put Italy in because they are a traditionally a better team.

 

Hmm..i guess. But if UEFA had 16 spots then the top second- place finishers in the group stage would simply qualify directly. You wouldn’t have 4 playoffs.

 

Actually I don’t think UEFA qualying format will change. The current format actually works better with 16 WC spots than it does with 13.

 

UEFA got creative with the qualifiers for Euro2020. I’ll reserve final judgement until they have been played, but in theory the playoffs at the end should provide some drama, even if the group stage part of qualifying is rather boring.

Other regions may want to consider determining some WC spots through the Nations Leagues, which would then reduce the # of spots determined through the regular qualifying process (thereby reserving some of its importance). For e.g. say 2 CONCACAF spots would be based on the NL. That would leave only 4 spots to come from the “regular” qualifying process. You can even keep the HEX in that case.