A: Egypt, Russia B: Spain, Portugal C: France, Denmark D: Croatia, Argentina E: Brazil, Serbia F: Germany, Mexico G: Belgium, England H: Colombia, Poland
All are free to think whatever they want lol no? Maybe you have teams from europe that come back with stronger squads than these last years?
Every WC we have folks (including the so-called media "experts") making the same reflexive predictions that see virtually no non-Euro/CONMEBOL team advancing. And every WC these minnows somehow make it in numbers. Yet every WC comes around these folks make the same, predictable predictions. As the saying goes, the more things change, the more things stay the same.
Sure, we are all free to think what we want. That's why this thread exists, right? And maybe some are right. Maybe UEFA and COMMEBOL teams are extra strong this cycle than in previous ones. Or maybe such thinking comes out of a long-ingrained arrogance that is blind to the changed landscape. Maybe.
We will see in few months if they are right or not. But what happened in 2014 is irrelevant. .it is about who got who to perform right now. Not about 4 or 8 years ago. A nation like Colombia was not qualified in 2002 2006 and 2010 and they reached 1/4 in 2014...so....they are not the first that have done that.
At least 2 non-UEFA/CONMEBOL teams have made the R16 ever since R16 came into existence. In the last 4 WCs, we had 5, 3, 5 & 5 non-UEFA/CONMEBOL teams advancing. Sure, every WC is a fresh start. What happened previously doesn't matter. Nonetheless, there is a pattern of usual pre-tourney predictions and the usual actual results. And this disjunction between the two tell a story--a story that rears its head every WC.
I don't care where they come from. It is judged by the actual team and how I think they will perform in their fixtures. Group A and C are the only two I'm unsure about. You never know what Uruguay are going to do (a decade ago I would have said they would win this group blindfolded) nor have I seen Saudi Arabia play for a very long time, while my choices are more hopeful than anything as I want Egypt to be a fairytale team and Russia to go through for the sake of their fans and the tournament. In Group C I don't believe Argentina are that good as a team but their ridiculously high-quality players will get them through at least in 2nd. I'm backing Croatia but would love it if Nigeria got through as they are exciting or if Iceland can win everyone over again as the fan favourite. I'm also now personally invested in Croatia - Nigeria having bought my flights after the draw too. Serbia qualifying from group E is because I think they will beat Costa Rica in their opener and then Switzerland (tired from their Brazil match). Brazil defeating Germany in the final.
Last WC in Europe had only Australia and Ghana make out of the group stage of your so called non-Euro/CONMEBOL teams not counting Mexico. In 98, another WC in Europe, it was ONLY Nigeria. And yeah, these predictions are only opinions, nobody is being cocky about their picks here.
Mexico are not a minnow. I personally always pick Mexico to go on to the 2nd round and a lot of people do as well. If the USA are in there I strongly consider them to.
We can sit here and as reasonable people make reasonable arguments why Serbia will beat Costa Rica and vice versa. Based on our own individual assessment of individual teams, no matter where they come from. Both sides would have valid reasons for their thinking. That's the fun of this whole prediction thing, right? But somehow these predictions, which at micro level seem informed and well-reasoned, taken collectively say the same thing every WC: that there is a continuing underestimation of non-UEFA/CONMEBOL teams.
So you are saying that you would consider all non-UEFA/CONMEBOL teams automatically as minnows? That's why you excluded Mexico from this discussion about non-UEFA/CONMEBOL teams? Okay.
Well, nobody in their right mind would have predicted Cost Rica in 2014. I am not picking them this time because I've read they've dropped in form a bit and the Swiss have been pretty damn consistent. South Korea also is a team analysis are saying are not that good. I could probably tip Japan to have a chance, but the CAF teams are typically a huge crap shoot trying to predict them. Unfortunately for Nigeria and Morocco who seem to be the stronger of those teams, they fell into hard groups. Yeah sometimes you see a very unexpected team making it through, but try to predict which one.
I also consider some CONMEBOL and UEFA teams minnows. But yes I do, because none of those teams have any decent history of making out of the groups stages not to mention making to the WC.
It's very likely that a non-UEFA/Conmebol team qualifies to the playoffs. But the probability of each team is low.
After the surprise of Costa Rica in Brazil 2014 , nothing is written and everything can happen. Good luck !
I think many people are overrating Costa Rica because of this. Costa Rica were not really that good of a team. They beat Uruguay without Suarez, Gimenez, Gonzalez, and Lodeiro. Gonzalez and Lodeiro came on later but it was after Costa Rica were already ahead. They beat Italy in very hot weather, and Italy was just not very good then. Prandelli played a few players out of position, and the team was suffering from unrest with many players playing for themselves and not for the team. Then they just beat Greece on penalties, and drew with Holland and lost on penalties. Let me point out I don't think Holland was that great either. Van Gaal did a tactical masterpiece against Spain and Chile, but other than that they were not very impressive. I mean Mexico should have beaten them if it wasn't from the Robben dive. They drew with Costa Rica, and lost to Argentina on penalties.
Ok in WC the teams that should make it don't make it 100% of the time. There's always surprises (lets say 20%). With this in mind: Group A: Russia, Egypt Group B: Portugal, Morocco Group C: France, Denmark Group D: Croatia, Argentina Group E: Brazil, Serbia Group F: Germany, Korea Group G: Belgium, England Group H: Colombia, Senegal.