That and the fact that Mexico and Costa Rica laid down a bit in their last game. That said, it's our own fault. An old coach once told me, "don't put yourself in in a situation where you have to leave the call in the hands of the referee".
Yep. Not only is the ranking methodology a complete joke, but European qualification setup compounds the factor.
Somebody can correct me if I am wrong (I am going off the top of my head on information from awhile ago) but... The Rankings calculation right now gives heavier weighting for opponent being a UEFA team (say, multiply by 1.25 instead of 1.0 within the calculation). So all the UEFA teams can get a slight bit more points when they are playing each other during UEFA/WC qualifications and Euro tournaments than other confederations can doing the same activities within their own regions.
The way I heard it was the FIFA ranking is based on an average of a team's results. Teams obviously get more points for wins than ties. Competitive matches count more than friendlies. Poland had a good WC qualifying campaign and avoided playing any friendlies to avoid lowering their average.
A new system will be introduced after this World Cup is complete. It will be based on the Elo rating system (which I had experience with in my youth as it is used for chess rankings) and the confederation weighting will be removed. The women's system is already close to the new system, being based on the Elo system. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings#2018_ranking_system_update
Seeding is used in the groups. The group winners play no one else. Poland played exactly 5 teams to qualify. The best team they faced was Denmark or Romania. Denmark pulled the same junk as Poland and played in less friendlies in 2017. So a stupid system is given to a confederation with a strong weighting factor, then allows those teams to play no one good. Meanwhile, Conmebol, Concacaf & Asia play significantly more teams to gain qualification. IMO, European teams play too few other countries to say they are the best of their confederation.
Not quite sure how UEFA are supposed to play more qualifying games with the constraints of 1) FIFA window dates. 2) That qualifying has to take place from the September following the Euros to November of the following year 3)That most nations apart from the ones gaming the rankings (which they can't do anymore ) like to play an occasional friendly on those FIFA dates. 4) Oh. Add in the idiocy of the UEFA Nations league.
Huh. Belgium might make 10 changes. Apparently Martinez isn't aware that finishing top is all important..... https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/44607951
Well, CONMEBOL nations play 18 WCQ’s, plus Copa America. Teams in CONCACAF’s Hex play 16 WCQ’s (6 in semi’s and 10 in the Hex). Granted, with Euro’s, there is a whole bunch of other qualifiers.
1) Conmebol don't play qualifiers for COPA America 2) When do Conmebol qualifiers start? 3) When do Concacaf qualifiers start? 4) Certain teams don't have to qualify for the Gold Cup. Ever. Now relate those to the questions I asked. In a four year period, European teams will play at least 20 qualifiers across Euros and World Cup. Plus the Nations League now. UEFA - 55 members Comnebol - 10 members Concacaf - 41 members
Do you think playing 5 countries is enough to earn qualification to the WC? There's a better way to do it. I don't have to create a better way to know that the process is a crock.
Maybe it's not that UEFA members don't play each other enough but rather than CONCACAF/CONMEBOL members play each other too many times. But, ultimately it's up to each confederation to decide, is it not?
And part of it, in UEFA, is all of the new countries in the past 20 years due to the breakup of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and the addition of some minnows like Gibraltar. So it's a lot harder for all of the European teams to play all of the other European teams. That has to affect it somehow.
Again. Within the constraints already outlined, how are UEFA supposed to create a process where teams play more than 5? To use your Poland example. In this World Cup cycle Poland have played: European Qualifying: Germany Eire Scotland Georgia Gibraltar Lost once - To Germany Euro 2016: Germany Northern Ireland Ukraine Switzerland Portugal They didn't lose a game in normal time at the Euros World Cup qualifying Denmark Montenegro Romania Armenia Kazakstahn Lost once at Denmark 20 qualifying games - 2 defeats. Sometimes countries just have a bad tournament. Not quite sure what teams are missing from UEFA. The Dutch? Finished third in a six team group. Italy? They lost a play off.