Yes, Colombia played in the Toronto Pan Am games. They actually lost to Brazil in the final (after defeating Canada in the Semis) on July 25, 2015. I believe Colombia were missing 3 of their regular starters, including Andrade.
I think Heath played one of the best matches of her career. Really, she was outstanding. I also thought Dunn and Long played out of their minds. I thoroughly enjoyed this match. The whole team passed extremely well and they were passing quickly, hopefully this was a glimpse of what we'll see during the Olympics.
how does this team beat columbia by 7 and the WC champs were lucky to win? Are they really this good?
I heard that from a few people, yet i watched 10 minutes of the first half and for those 10 minutes she passed or shot the ball into a columbian 5 times in a row. I'll have to re-watch..she seems to be moving really well.
The USA got off to a slow start for sure, but, according to the post-match interviews, that was Jill Ellis' plan. So we cannot fault the players. On the very first goal, Heath tried to shoot at goal 2-3, which ended up hitting a Colombian defender each time. Besides those shots, the rest of match, she looked really good. I won't get caught up in one sequence. I watched the match slowly and patiently, I would stop every 20 minutes or so and digest what I had seen. In general, all the US players had nice, quick ball movement.
Well, finished with Heath's first half. So far my only question is this... anybody know how to cook crow for me to make it easier to go down? I've gotten the hang of this a bit & will go ahead and pick up Press' second half & post it along side Heath's full game.
Christen Press first. I can't help but feel bad for her. Like @taosjohn said she's pretty much on the outside looking in and I don't think it's really her fault. She's doing everything she's supposed to do and then some. Press had a rather spectacular game, in my estimation the best game of any US player statistics wise, but her performance was overshadowed by some of her teammates more visible nights. Like Heath, Press was far more involved than I thought. Her pass completion percentage is extraordinary given the number of attempts she made, a full 20 more attempts than Pugh from the first half. In one half Press nearly had as many attempts as Heath did the entire game. She also created more chances in one half than any other US player did in the entire game. Final Stats for Christen Press 1 goal from 4 shots, 1 on goal, 2 blocked. 37 Possessions 7 Turnovers 32 Pass Attempts 27 Completed 12 Key Pass Attempts 9 Completed 6 Chance Creations Attempts 4 Completed
Babranski, I like what you're doing, even though the opportunity for personal bias to creep in is large. Better to try it than not. Regarding Press, I'm wondering how when a player is in the game begins to affect the data. Are her good stats the result of how she played or the result of Colombia being wasted and her being fresh. I'l wondering what your stats would show for KO as compared to Klingenberg. My impression was that KO had a very poor game. I'd also like to see your stats for Dunn. I haven't been a fan, but in this game I thought she looked really good, doing things I haven't seen her do before. Whatever though, great effort on your part.
My early impressions of Tobin Heath was based on the complete lack of chance creation. She just doesn't show up in the final third when it matters the most, having completed only 1 chance all night, & even that was by way of technicality for the sake of consistency. My mistake was then to believe the lack of creative stats would translate to the other aspects of her game, and boy was I wrong. Christen Press had a staggering 85% pass completion rate, but Heath wasn't too far behind. I was also very impressed that Heath retained possession and kept her usual abhorrent turnover rate to a minimum. @cpthomas your question is well timed... Key Passing is a stand-alone stat I used precisely for this reason. It helps give perspective to the degree of difficulty, especially if you compare two players key passes over the same stretch of time. Press came in against a very tired team & racked up a number of easy passes cycling the ball about and just retaining possession. Only 12 key passing attempts in 32 is a telling number. Meanwhile, Heath attempted 19 key passes in 37, mostly in the first half. Without having watched the game I could probably have looked at the stats & surmised that Heath had been on when the quality of the opposition was greater. However, Heath actually only completed 6 key passes to Press' 9 in the second half. That lends more value to Press' performance against the same tired opponent, imo. Go one step furth and compare an analysis I did of Rapinoe vs Brazil when I first started to develop the idea. Rapinoe had something like 25 Pass Attempts & all but a few were Key Passes. Tobin Heath's final stats: 46 Possessions 8 Turnovers 37 Pass Attempts 29 Completed 19 Key Pass Attempts 12 Completed 4 Chance Creations attempted 1 Completed Tobin Heath starts the game on the left. 00:27 - 00:30 Turnover In Possession 04:18 - 04:30 Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, end-line cut back, intercepted. 05:30 - 05:34 Completed Key Pass 05:58 - 06:00 Incomplete Pass, Turnover 11:09 - 11:13 Completed Key Pass 15:07 - 15:10 Turnover in Possession 17:05 - 17:05 Completed Key Pass Heath moves to the right. 18:45 - 18:50 Turnover in Possession. *after a corner 22:27 - 22:30 Completed Pass 23:20 - 23:23 Completed Key Pass 24:18 - 24:26 Completed Key Pass 25:51 - 25:51 Blocked Shot 25:53 - 25:53 Blocked Shot 26:00 Dunn scores, 1-0 US 27:00 - 27:08 Turnover in Possession 28:00 - 28:05 Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, cross too close to keeper. 31:12 Long scores, 2-0 US 32:23 - 32:25 Turnover in Possession 32:29 Pugh Scores, 3-0 US 35:19 - 35:23, Completed Key Pass 38:12 Lloyd Scores, 4-0 US 39:35 - 39:38, Incomplete Key Pass, Completed Chance Creation, driven cross bent into the "second 6", cleared. 43:48 - 43:48, Completed Pass 44:06 - 44:07, Completed Pass 44:16 - 44:18, Completed Pass HALF, 4-0 US Heath starts the second half on the left. 45:17 - 45:20, Completed Pass 45:24, Shot off target. 47:56 - 47:58, Incomplete Key Pass 48:58 - 48:59, Incomplete Key Pass 52:46 - 52:46, Completed Key Pass, Fouled… should have been advantage. 53:31 - 53:32, Completed Pass 55:04 - 55:08, Completed Pass 55:10 - 55:13, Turnover in Possession 57:44 - 57:47, Turnover in Possession 58:01 - 58:04, Completed Key Pass 61:21 - 61:25, Completed Key Pass 61:59 Heath Scores, Chance created by Dunn. 5-0 US 64:23 Long Scores, 6-0 US 67:05 - 67:07, Completed Pass Tobin Heath moves to Left Back. Okay then. 71:10 - 71:15, Completed Key Pass 72:11 - 72:16, Completed Key Pass 72:48 - 72:5, Completed Pass 73:45, Press scores, 7-0 US 74:55 - 74:57, Completed Pass 78:14 - 78:15, Completed Pass 79:39 - 79:47, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, short cross cleared away. 80:?? - 80:26, Completed Pass 84:03 - 84:06, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, Long & Direct, straight to keeper. 84:56 - 84:58, Completed Pass 86:28 - 86:30, Completed Pass 87:30 - 87:34, Completed Pass 88:03 - 88:04, Completed Key Pass 88:?? - 88:45, Completed Pass 88:57 - 88:58, Completed Pass
The more I do this the more proficient I'll get at it. Two players worth of data has pretty much taken up all my free time in one day. I definitely plan on doing Dunn next, but what I analyze will depend on how many minutes she gets on Sunday, if any at all. I share your impression of KO having a poor game, I recall a lot of poor cross attempts the most. People have been mentioning Hinkle as fading, but what exactly has KO been doing to solidify that roster spot? Nothing I say. Then again, after getting my impressions of Heath wrong, I should be wary of saying that.
I appreciate your efforts to quantify performance. It was my impression that Heath had a good game -- and I'm not usually appreciative of Heath. My impression, however, was that Press wasn't especially good -- despite her picture-perfect goal -- and I'm a fan of Press. You've made me want to evaluate her performance a little more closely. I particularly like your stat on "completed key pass." I'd like to see more stats on the woman's game. Secondary assists would be one big improvement -- e.g. the player who made the pass which enabled another player to make an assist. That National Team is too stingy with its stats, assuming it has good stats.
Had a similar thought process: multiple people are capable of creating chances within the same sequence. Whenever a chance does occur I'm careful to analyze the sequence leading up to it & give credit where credit is do. A simple pass to cycle the ball doesn't deserve the same credit as a give & go touch. Take Christen Press' chance created at the 88:08 mark (on typing that I realized I didn't include Press' log!) Press' touch to release Carli Lloyd on goal gave Lloyd the opportunity to do one of two things, shoot or drive endline to pass. If I was doing Lloyd's stats, I would have given her a chance creation attempted tally because once she got end-line she tried to cut it back. So that was a sequence where two chance creations were attempted. Alternatively, if Lloyd had been at an angle too difficult to shoot, after Press' pass, I would still have given Press the chance creation tally if Lloyd had driven end line & tried to cut it back like she did. The quickness of Press' pass is what made that sequence go, & I would almost always give her credit for it. Christen Press starts the second half on the right. 45:45 - 45:45, Completed Pass 45:47 - 45:53, Completed Pass 46:26 - 46:28, Completed Key Pass 46:33 - 46:34, Completed Key Pass 48:24 - 48:28, Turnover in Possession 49:28 - 49:30, Chance Creation Completed, double move 20 yards out, wild shot wide and over the bar. 50:20 - 50:27, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, driven cross from endline too close to keeper. 50:54 - 51:02, Key Pass Completed 54:08 - 54:09, Incomplete Key Pass, Turnover 54:46 - 54:46, Completed Pass 54:48 - 45:49, Completed Pass 55:18 - 55:18, Completed Pass 55:20 - 55:23, Completed Pass 57:33 - 57:34, Completed Pass 57:35 - 57:37, Completed Key Pass 58:04 - 58:06, Completed Key Pass 58:40 - 58:41, Completed Pass 61:44 - 61:48, Completed Pass 61:59 Heath Scores, 5-0 US 64:23 Long Scores, 6-0 US Christen Press moves to the left. 69:47 - 69:52, Turnover in Possession 71:35 - 71:37, Completed Pass 71:49 - 71:49, Completed Pass 72:08 - 72:10, Turnover in Possession 73:45 Press Scores, Chance created by Dunn, 7-0 US 77:09, Shot Blocked 78:00, Shot Blocked 78:15 - 78:17, Completed Key Pass, Completed Chance Creation, Diagonal Cross to back post, 6 yards out. Mewis heads it wide. 79:59 - 79:59, Incomplete Pass, Turnover 80:35 - 80:36, Completed Pass 80:39 - 80:42, Incomplete Key Pass, Attempted Chance Creation, endline cut back, behind intended target & cleared. 81:11 - 81:13, Completed Pass 84:40 - 84:43, Completed Key Pass 85:02 - 85:03, Completed Pass 86:00 - 86:02, Incomplete Key Pass, Turnover 87:27 - 87:28, Completed Pass 88:08 - 88:08, Completed Key Pass, Chance Creation Completed, outside the boot give & go with Lloyd 16 yards out, left seam. Lloyd through on goal. 88:52 - 88:56, Completed Pass 89:02 - 89:05, Completed Key Pass, Completed Chance Creation, Endline Cross to back post, 6 yards out, Allie Long connects with header, not enough power. 89:39 - 89:41, Turnover in Possession 91:22 - 91:22, Completed Pass 91:26 - 91:28, Completed Pass
Agree. The effort is well worth it, and the subjectivity issue doesn't concern me too much even though I disagree with you a lot on stuff; anyone's subjectivity will tend to self-correct when analysis is tied to the whole process rather than just those things that make an initial impression. I would make include three cautions though-- well cpthomas already made the first, I'm just agreeing with it-- which stem from the same basic thing and which may have been more extreme in that game than most. The opponent is not really a constant, changes somewhat at different times in a player's game. Reducing their game to individual's lists filters out: 1. The time in the game; Columbia were not match fit at all and wore down very very quickly. Numbers compiled in the first 15-20 minutes will normally be impacted by the process of your own team becoming "entrained" as drummer say-- getting your initial timing integrated to each other. But in this case roughly by the time that process was mature, the opponent was at the state they would normally be at 60-70 minutes. Your time signatures will be very important sometimes... 2. Your own tactics. It seemed clear to me that the U.S. focus/intent/strategy was to attack a perceived weakness on their left, attacking it from the corner rather than what in hockey would be called "the point." That is my subjective impression anyway, and if true it would put a somewhat different value on events on that side of the field beyond the players own talent. That is, if everybody has been asked to look for opportunities on the left, they will attempt things on that side that they might not naturally, and that would have nothing to do with their dominant foot or vision or whatever. 3. Switches and substitutions, both your own and the other team's. We tend to try a given player's luck on each side in the first half, and we also will switch for most of a game sometimes after ten or twenty or thirty minutes. Obviously I have no way to know if this is preplanned or Ellis' reaction to what she sees-- I would assume that sometimes it is the one and more often the other. But for example, Brunn and JJ switched sides somewhere relatively early in the game; this will affect the flow for the other players on each side and therefore affect the "meaning" of some of the left/right numbers. Or play 60 minutes on the same side as Jill Scott, and then see Aluko subbed for her-- that's going to make for very different challenges and opportunities in behind a "completed pass" or "turnover" on one of these lists. So I'm hugely in favor of your efforts and believe they will tell us a lot-- but I'd caution against getting so involved with them that we lose track of their limitations in embracing the enhancement to our understanding. "So and so completed 7 out of 12 attempts" may be less meaningful if we do not recognize that 5 of them were after Morgan subbed in...
I feel like this has been posted before, but this person has an elaborate crowd-sourced effort underway for both NT games and NWSL matches, in case anyone is interested in assisting. https://twitter.com/wosostats https://github.com/amj2012/wosostats/blob/master/resources/how-to-help.md I would like to help out, but as I don't think I can understand either the match part or the technology part, it is probably not an activity for me.
It depends- would you prefer boiled, fried, or grilled? And don't forget to pluck all the feathers off first.
I also admire @babranski's time-consuming efforts to perform assessment based on data. At first blush, I thought the categories and category definitions seemed too subjective, but as @taosjohn said "anyone's subjectivity will tend to self-correct when analysis is tied to the whole process rather than just those things that make an initial impression."
You guys are right to bring up the subjectivity concerns, in my opinion that's more of an issue with this model than some of the concerns you brought up @taosjohn ... Subjectivity/bias/inconsistency can & will influence how I see something as a key pass over a simple pass, a chance created over just a key pass, and what constitutes a turnover vs a good defensive play. The original purpose of this model was to evaluate what made Rapinoe valuable in order identify her potential replacement on the left wing when she went down with the ACL injury. So I watched several games, recorded a plethora of stats, & then pick and chose the ones that painted Rapinoe in a good light, within reason. So this is why these stats may seem a skewed & leave important details out. The model was really meant for something specific and doesn't take a lot of other stats & factors into account. The first game I tested this model on. Rapinoe attempted a lot of ambitions passes, so it was important for me to identify & "asterisk", if you will, those ambitions. From there I developed my understand of how to quantify Chance Creations & Key Passes in a way that would be consistent with every game I did going forward. That consistency was very difficult, and a lot of the problems come up in this video. Looking over this I am reminded that I decided after some debate to not quantify chances an individual created for themselves to shoot as anything other than "shot". Rapinoe's goal was originally labeled as a "completed chance creation for self". Now it's just "shot". I forgot to apply that consistency to Press' wild effort from Wednesday's game. Also, the issue of how to record defensive clearances came up, such as the instance at the 2:30. I don't want to hold something like that against her with a negative stat, but if the clearance happened to have fallen to a teammate... what do I do? In the end, I just trust my gut on things like that. for me, things like difficulty of opposition, tactics, etc, don't influence this particular data set as much as you seem concerned about it. The model specifically addresses the end result of a players possession through the course of a game, regardless of circumstance. Playing an easy opponent? You still have to make the pass. The variety of stats, with enough data, gives us enough perspective where the patterns speak for themselves. Rapinoe did great in keeping possession, combining with others, & making the most of her chances when they came to her. However she tried to force the ball forward a bit much for my tastes. That's something I remember thinking watching this game, and it's something that's reinforced by the stats. Final Stats, Megan Rapinoe vs Australia 5 Shots, 1 blocked, 2 off target, 2 on goal, 2 goals. 47 Possessions 5 Turnovers 40 Pass Attempts 25 Completed 29 Key Pass Attempts 16 Completed 11 Attempted Chance Creations 0 Completed Since there's no clock available, these times are based on the video. 00:22, Incomplete Key Pass, Turnover 00:25, Completed Key Pass 00:31, Completed Key Pass 00:40, Completed Key Pass 00:47, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, through ball down the left seam to Klingenberg, slightly over hit. 01:00, Completed Pass 01:07, Completed Key Pass (Despite the difficult camera angle & switch at the inopportune time, I believe Rapinoe got a side food square off at the last second. Bad touch from Lloyd.) 1:17, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, Spin-O-Rama in the left seam, drives at an angle to the left flank. Wild cross/shot/shross from 20 yards out, left seam. 1:30, Shot on Goal, Goal 2:50, Completed Pass 2:57, Completed Key Pass 3:08, Incomplete Pass, Attempted Chance Creation, in left seam 1v1 with full back, shifts end-line & over hits a cross. 3:20, Turnover in Possession 3:37, Incomplete Key Pass, Attempted Chance Creation, ambitious outside the boot direct ball down the left seam, intercepted at the defensive line. 3:40, Completed Pass 3:53, Incomplete Key Pass 4:00, Completed Pass 4:23, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, on the left flank, deep cross to far post over hit. 4:33, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, left hash, 40 - 45 yards out, crazy banana kick direct ball attempt that doesn't work. 4:38, Completed Pass 4:40, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, left flank, 30 yards out. Wild in-swinging cross, cleared. 4:50, Completed Pass 5:27, Completed Pass 5:30, Completed Key Pass 5:40, Completed Key Pass 5:50, Incomplete Key Pass, Turnover 6:00, Shot off target 6:10, Completed Key Pass HT 6:15, Shot blocked. 6:30, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, Long diagonal direct ball from the left flank, cleared. 6:40, Completed Key Pass 6:58, Completed Key Pass 7:05, Incomplete Key Pass, Turnover 7:14, Completed Key Pass 7:30, Completed Key Pass 7:40, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, Long diagonal direct ball from left flank to far post, too close to the keeper. 7:55, Completed Key Pass 8:00, Completed Key Pass 8:30, Completed Key Pass 8:50, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, Long Direct ball from the left flank smashed off of a defender a few yards away. 8:55, Turnover in Possession 9:03, Incomplete Key Pass, Chance Creation Attempted, Direct Ball for Wambach, cleared. 9:08, Completed Pass 9:15, Completed Key Pass 9:23, Completed Pass 9:30, Shot on Goal, Goal 10:35, Shot off target
The model is flawed, for sure. It's narrow minded & makes it hard to compare players who otherwise are not playing wing. Tobin Heath's stats become different and off when she moves to left back. It's not fair to compare the numbers of a left back with the numbers of a winger or forward in this model. The specificity made it sound like a good idea at a time, but the last 48 hours is making me want to scratch the model & start over.
It was only one game, and I don't think Colombia looked match-fit. However, I thought Long and Mewis looked great in the midfield. If it were up to me (and it's not), I would start Lloyd, Long, and Brian in the Olympics with Mewis as the #1 back-up. Horan has always looked a little slow to me, not just in terms of pure speed, but also in terms of decision making. I think she would be better as a target forward type player (which is what she really is).
Everyone has already made most of the comments on the game, but I did want to just say thanks and hats off to the Colombian team for showing up. Nine months without getting paid, including four months in camp, and about a year without a home game. I absolutely respect them for coming in and playing, and would give equal respect if they decided to go on strike before the April 10 game, which could still happen according to Yoreli Rincon (in a quote prior to April 6 game): "We will play the first game...but we don't know what will happen with the second game. Maybe we will play, maybe the federation will give us our money and that will change everything. But if we don't have money, we need to make some statement."