In 2006, depending on how you count, there were five to eight teams that were participating in their first World Cup. Clear first-timers were Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Trinidad and Tobago. Most (including FIFA) would also count Ukraine (which had participated as part of the USSR several times, most recently in 1990). Some (but not FIFA) would also count the Czech Republic (which had participated as part of Czechoslovakia several times, most recently in 1990) and Serbia and Montenegro (which had participated under the name Yugoslavia in 1998). In the 2010 World Cup, for the first time, FIFA considered there to be no teams participating in their first World Cup. Some (but not FIFA) would count Serbia (participating for the first time without Montenegro, but having just participated as Serbia and Montenegro in 2006) and Slovakia (which had participated as part of Czechoslovakia several times, most recently in 1990). If you'd like to see the first-timers who debuted in each world cup, consult this Wikipedia article. So which teams will debut as first-timers in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil? I've listed 15 candidates in the poll -- AFC: Bahrain, Uzbekistan; CAF: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Libya, Malawi, Zambia; CONCACAF: Guatemala, Panama; CONMEBOL: Venezuela; UEFA: Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro. FIFA would consider all of these to be first-timers, even though some are part of the former Soviet Union or Yugoslavia. I've also listed "Other" for anyone I was forced to leave off -- sorry, there are a maximum of 16 poll options. Feel free to post explanations of your "Other" vote. Apologies to the following teams (and any others) you might be considering for your "Other" vote, based on pots and discussions before the last two World Cups. AFC: Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Syria. CAF: Benin, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Gambia, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Sudan, Swaziland, Zimbabwe. UEFA: Albania, Cyprus, Estonia, Georgia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia. OFC: Fiji, New Caledonia. You can also vote "Other", and post an explanation, if you feel that no first-timers will debut at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
I really hope either Iceland or Finland can finally make it, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Uzbekistan probably has the best chance of all the potential debutants. I also think Burkina Faso is good enough, but Africa is so hard to qualify from...
I think Panama probably has the best shot give that they are as good as, if not better, than the teams they will likely be competing against for the 3rd CONCACAF spot (i.e. Costa Rica and Honduras). After that Uzbekistan probably has the best shot, since the current weakness of the Middle Eastern and Gulf teams leaves the race for the 4th spot in Asia wide open.
I would also add Qatar and Mali too, as these two teams, while having outside shots at qualifying, are competitive in their regions.
Here are my picks. At least four teams will qualify from AFC, and you can pretty much count on Australia, Japan, and South Korea -- so who's the fourth? So much depends on the draw, and therefore I'm surprising myself a little bit by picking Bahrain. They snagged the fifth and final seed in 2014 AFC qualifying, and the only criticism of their performance at the 2011 AFC Asian Cup is "well, they lost to Australia and South Korea, which you'd expect most AFC teams to do as well". I was very close to picking Uzbekistan, especially after their 4th-place finish in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup. While I can still see them making it, they'd need a good draw, and their 1W-1D-6L record in the fourth round of 2010 AFC qualifying -- including being swept by Bahrain -- isn't encouraging. They're probably destined for Pot B in the third-round 2014 AFC qualifying draw. Ah, CAF. CAF CAF CAF. Where anything can happen, and usually does. Botswana's on a great rise, but still stuck in Pot 2 for 2014 CAF qualifying. I'd pick Burkina Faso, solidly in Pot 1, except for the Herve Xavier Zengue eligibility questions -- unfortunately, from what little I know, this seems to be a clear-cut case of a team about to forfeit games. Who knows about Gabon, since they're hosting the 2012 ACN and thus not participating in qualifying -- and it looks as if they're not going to squeak into Pot 1 (unless Burkina Faso is demoted). Guinea's on a good run in 2012 ACN qualifying, but still stuck in Pot 2 for 2014 CAF qualifying. Libya's hard to figure out with the unfortunate elimination on tiebreakers before the last round of 2010 CAF qualifying, as well as the domestic political situation -- tough to pick them. Malawi had the misfortune to be drawn with Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire in 2010 CAF qualifying; they're probably still favored to qualify for 2012 ACN, but not showing a reason to pick them out of Pot 2. I'm going to stretch a bit and pick Zambia. They're going to have to rise out of Pot 2, but they've got some decent results from the 2010 ACN tournament and from 2012 ACN qualifying. The third qualifying spot out of CONCACAF really looks up for grabs. But I think maybe this is Panama's cycle. Is this the cycle for Venezuela? Seems as if they might be right there, fighting Colombia and Ecuador for the intercontinental playoff spot from CONMEBOL. But I'd say that more likely than not, they're headed for disappointment again. There's only one Pot 1 or Pot 2 team in UEFA that's never qualified for the World Cup (at least from FIFA's point of view): Montenegro. They don't give up a lot of goals and they appear to be on a roll. I'm picking them to get it done. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Belarus are contending for a possible Euro 2012 spot, but I'll pick against them both to rise out of Pot 3 in 2014 UEFA qualifying.
Uzbekistan from the AFC, and Belarus as well as they're at the point where they look more promising than Bosnia. Some of the players on that UEFA U-21 3rd place team look unreal.
Botswana? Would love to see it but I don't think it's gonna happen - all there players play locally with a few in SA. Mali or Guinea are probably more realistic options from CAF.
Panama looked pretty good in the Gold Cup and if they maintain that level they can definitely qualify in third after USA and Mexico. I want to say Bahrain will make it in, they have been unlucky in the last two world cup qualifiers but I don't know if they can do what they did again.
good question. venezuela has gotten a lot better and you have to assume that they probably have the best chance along with an asian team to replace North Korea. a lot of it will have to do with how the teams are paired in the random playoff.
CONCACAF: Panama (taking the place of USA) CONCABOL: Venezuela (taking the additonal place for the region) CAF: Burkina Faso, Guinea ASIA: Uzbekistan UEFA: Belarus
Re: Which teams will debut as first-timers in Brazil 2014? [R] Spoilers (highlight to reveal). That will teach me to try to evaluate CONMEBOL teams before Copa América. Remind me to come to you when I want to know how CONMEBOL teams are doing!
Maybe. If this Copa is any indication. Conmebol qualification will be a real bloodbath this time. Arg is not performing well and everybody else seems to be upping their games.
Even with our poor performance in the Gold Cup, I still don't see us missing out on 2014 unless Bradley REALLY screws qualification up big time. I could see Panama taking the playoff place, however.
Commebol is going to be amazing this time around. I expect Bolivia to be on the bottom, but you never know. With the other 7 teams basically fighting 4 or 5 spots. You would expect Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina to qualify... But Ecuador still is a fortress at home and they might only need that to qualify. If Argentina's continued problems arise, they could be in danger, especially if they get off to a shaky start.
Not only that, but Brazil is lucky they don't have to qualify, otherwise they could be in trouble if they had to qualify as well. Fortunately for Brazil, they're hosting and don't need to worry about that. Though it does seem worrying for them if it's any indicator of their performance in 2014. Then again, 3 years is a long time, a lot could change in 3 years. Hey, if Bolivia can beat Argentina 6-1 in 2010 qualification, Conmebol isn't going to be straightforward as everyone thinks, if this Copa America is any indication.
True, true. A lot can happen. We could see Argentina finally find itself and dominate, we just don't know. Even though, with as many as 6 of the 9 teams from Commebol in, the WC could have a very latin flair. Imagine that Commebol gets 6, Costa Rica and Honduras/Panama both qualify (this would be at the expense of New Zealand and Asia 5)... Add Mexico and we have 9 Latin Teams! If Argentina don't get seeded, we could have 7 Euros and Brazil as the seeds. Although I would expect the top finisher in Commebol qualifying to earn a seed, whether it be Argentina, Uruguay or whoever.
Venezuela is much improved and will have a solid chance to qualify. They should be able to do better than Peru or Bolivia who have not shown anything in the Copa that indicates real improvement. Ecuador also look like they're going to struggle.
Coupled with their 2010WC run, if Uruguay wins the Copa and does relatively well in qualifying (finishing top 4, not needing a playoff), In my mind (based on results) they will have possibly "earned" a seed over they likes of maybe France or England, especially if the last two do not perform well at the upcoming Euro. And yes, I know FIFA will massage any seeding formula or just chuck it all together, like they did in 2010, to get whatever seeds they want. The following is just my opinion based on recent performances in tournaments and qualifying, not on any analysis of past seeding formulas: At this point we have as seeds with almost 100% certainty: Brazil, Germany, Spain, Holland Most likely seeds unless they really under perform (certainly possible) in next three years: Argentina, Italy, England That makes 7, I think we then have Portugal, Uruguay, and France fighting for the 8th seed.
I started analyzing your post and came to the surprise conclusion that GHANA probably has as big a shout at the first pot as Uruguay has (if not bigger)! Plus if Croatia have a great Euro 2012 they look sure to hold on to a top 8 FIFA ranking spot. I think Brazil, Germany, Spain, Holland, England and Portugal should make the first pot. The remaining 2 spots will be taken by: Argentina, Italy, Uruguay, France, Croatia and Ghana. SUMMING IT UP: I. I don't think FIFA has ever used continental trophies to seed teams for the World Cup, so that is a non-factor in the seeding for 2014. II. If they use the 2010 formula than the first pot at the moment would be: SPAIN, NETHERLANDS, GERMANY, ENGLAND, BRAZIL, ITALY, PORTUGAL, CROATIA Given the way the FIFA ranking system works Uruguay should benefit from it. Argentina will really have to have a flawless qualification to the World Cup to have a chance to be in the top 7 (excluding Brasil). A lot will hinge on the Euro 2012 and how that influences rankings. A good run by Croatia will see them hold on to a top 8 position. The African Championships could have a big influence, as there will be one in 2012 and one in 2013 meaning a lot of points to the FIFA ranking. If both are dominated by one team they could easily jump into the top 7 as it will be a massive amount of points up for grab (i.e. Ghana win two titles). Naturally if Cote d'Ivoire finally win something it could be them in the 8 of the FIFA rankings... III. If they use something more akin to 2006 than here are the teams with the most points from their World Cup performance (top 7 teams). GERMANY 30 SPAIN 28 ARGENTINA 27,5 NETHERLANDS 26,5 PORTUGAL 25,5 GHANA 23 ENGLAND 23 All other teams have less than 20 points. URUGUAY didn't qualify for 2006, so they would only have 13 points and almost no chance to make the first pot. If anything Ghana would have more of a chance if they go back to taking into account their limited previous World Cup success.
Good point about Ghana, IF FIFA decides to go back 2 WCs with a formula. But that then kills Croatia. I cannot imagine any criteria where both would get a seed. Unless England really tears it up in Europe the next three years, I do not see where they have an advantage over Argentina, who did better overall in the last 2 WCs. Portugal is in a similar situation with only one win in the last WC, compared to Argentina's 4. I see you address this later. Well done. My point was that Uruguay will have picked up some major rankings points from their performances in both the WC and Copa America, not that a Copa America championship, by itself, is worthy of a seed. Excellent analysis. I would just add that I doubt FIFA would go with the top 8 in FIFA rankings if that gives a seed to Croatia or Ivory Coast. I think the only did it this last time to screw France. I cannot see Croatia (3 and out in 06 and did not qualify in 2010) nor Ivory Coast (2 straight 3 and outs) deserving of a seed. Mexico has a better case than either of those 2. (And no, I do not think Mexico deserves a seed, unless they play lights out the next three years and do great things at the Confed Cup, and it would still be a stretch. Also not being allowed to bring their A team to Copa really hurts their FIFA rank) I also cannot understand how Croatia is currently in the top 8, but Uruguay is not. I know it is a formula, but that really seems off. Other than a good couple of years ending with a decent Euro 2008 performance, Croatia has not done anything since 98. Compare to Uruguay, 2007 Copa America semifinalist, loosing to Brazil in PKs, 2010 WC semifinalist, 2011 Copa America finalist and possible champ. Hopefully the next rankings that take into account the entire Copa will have Uruguay in the top 5-8.
Ghana only has a chance if they substantially improve their FIFA ranking (they are 33 at the moment). I am partially giving them a leap of faith as I expect them to perform well at the African Championships, especially since Egypt are all but out. They are ranked 5th by FIFA, while Portugal is ranked 7th. If you take previous world cups Portugal is 5th and England joint 6th. Argentina is strong with World Cup rankings (2nd), but look set to drop together with Brasil in FIFA rankings after the Copa America (given neither them nor Brasil have lost a game at Copa America - PKs are counted as draws). But yeah... you're probably right. I think only Germany, Spain, Holland and Brasil can be sure of making it to the first pot. Your right. I see them close to the top 8 in the FIFA rankings after the Copa. Since they only have 3 draws and 2 wins so far it won't be as dramatic a rise unless they win today. If they have a good qualifying campaign I can see them push ahead of Argentina. Mexico will be hurt by their poor Copa America performance (reserve team or not) - three losses for lots of points. They will naturally easily qualify to the World Cup (the opposition is low ranked so they won't get a lot of points for it anyway), but unless they have a great Confed Cup I can't see them in the top 10 of the World. Note that anything before December 2009 will have no influence on the FIFA rankings. Euro 2008, Copa America 2007 - mean nothing. The new ranking system has made the FIFA rankings very fragile and that's why teams jump all over the ranking systems. That's exactly why Uruguay lost 11 positions, Ghana dropped 18 spots and why Argentina also dropped points in the ranking (The Copa America 2007 stopped counting while the World Cup 2010 has a lower weight). Basically summing it up I agree with you on one thing: FIFA will really have to work hard, else we will likely a surprise seed at WC 2014
I can easily see Panama snagging 3rd in the hex with USA 2nd and Mexico 1st. At the same time, I can just as easily see Costa Rica getting the spot.