After the World Cup, FIFA ranks the 32 participants based on their performance there. This is different from the monthly FIFA Rankings. Predict whether the UEFA seeds or the CONMEBOL seeds will have the better average ranking.
Definitely the South Americans. This is our time. The fight they're gonna have I feel will be unprecedented, especially coming from Brasil, who I believe will win it.
Well it DEPENDS on the weight you put as "how far" those teams go in WC14, right? for example: 1- Say ... Argentina #1 will win WC14, Brazil in SF #4, and both Uruguay Columbia out in Gr16 2- Say.... Germany #2, and Spain #3 , Belgium #6 and Switzeland #8 So which scenario is "doing better" ??
From those two groups, definitely the South Americans. Brasil and Argentina are my favourites to win the title and at least Colombia has a chance of going far. On the other hand, Switzerland's quality is doubtful and we don't know how competent Belgium is despite their impressive squad. Leaving Netherlands and Italy outside the group of the strongest European teams makes that comparison unfair. Nevertheless, the South Americans are clear favourites in this world cup.
I said in my first post: "After the World Cup, FIFA ranks the 32 participants based on their performance there. This is different from the monthly FIFA Rankings. Predict whether the UEFA seeds or the CONMEBOL seeds will have the better average ranking." Based on that Number 2 would be better.
The CONMEBOL ones will be higher IMO. I think all 4 of those South American teams will reach the second round. It's possible that Uruguay and Colombia will meet in the round of 16 and Brazil could face Spain. But even with bad luck that still means at least 2 reach the QFs. I don't see any less than that. For the UEFA teams, I think Germany has a good chance to go far. Spain is 50/50 to reach the quarters. While Belgium and Switzerland probably 25% chance or less. In CONMEBOL, Argentina 90%, Brazil 70-80%, Uruguay & Colombia about 50% each. So lots more doubt about the UEFA group reaching the quarters.
I want COMMEBAL to make a strong showing, but I can't help but think EUFA has a bit of a grip on it and it won't be relinquished easily. I'll be cheering for the SA teams, but I will be thinking of them as underdogs in the late rounds and I won't be surprised to see semis and quarters with a lot of European national teams represented.
I don't see how Brazil is that likely to reach quarters (and I don't mean this as an underestimation of them: no team is a bigger favourite to win it all than they are). They're, I think, roughly 95% to advance to R16. Meaning that 1 in 20 group stages they won't make it. Then, they meet Spain, Netherlands or Chile. One could say that they're the favourite against all of them, but especially in the case of Spain and also of Netherlands, not THAT big of a favourite. Brazil doesn't beat a random opponent of that trio 3/4 times. I'd say they're about 50% to beat Spain, 55% to beat Netherlands and 66% to beat Chile. That would make them roughly 55% to reach quarters. My numbers are likely wrong here and there, but 70-80% is surely too much.
70%-80% deff is too much but 50% and 55% is too little. Brasil is the favorite vs Spain in Brasil and if you have 50% chance to beat them that doesnt make you the favorite. Now i dont think Brazil will be the clear favorite over Spain (which will be something like 70-80%) but Brazil sure does have the upper hand. I think Chile Ecuador Netherlands and Italy deserve a mention in this thread
I made the poll to compare the UEFA seeds and the CONMEBOL seeds. That's why I didn't mention Chile, Ecuador, Netherlands, and Italy.
I'm not sure about the upper hand. I mean, how much of an upper hand? I might be wrong, but I think it's pretty much a 50/50 match. One could twist that a little, I guess, to something like 52/48, or 55/45, or even 60/40, but that is I think already too much and even that gives them less than 60% to make it to quarters. Brazil's group draw was great, but their R16 draw is I think toughest that any of the top team got: no matter how they do in group, they're gonna meet a top level team right away in R16.
^ Yes, and its more likely that Brazil with play either Holland or Chile. I think Brazil's chances to beat Holland is quite a bit higher than 55%. They were favored even in neutral territory in South Africa. Now Holland is weaker and Brazil are at home. So more like 70-75% IMO. But yeah, I guess 90% of Argentina is too high. They have at least as good a chance as Germany though IMO, given their rather easy draw.
I understand that, just think that it would be better adding this countries to the comparison, because i don't think it has been done before, but not to the point to create a whole new thread. well if you consider them 50%-50% means that you think neither is favorite. I do think Brazil does have the upper hand (not by much, that's why i wont go further than 60%) but in my opinion they do have it by being the home team.