As World Cup qualifying has just begun, these polls are just in time. Since the World Cup went to 32 teams, there have always been 12 or 13 teams that participated in the World Cup, but didn't participate in the next World Cup. (I refer of course to the final World Cup tournament, not World Cup qualifying.) See this post for the details. We know that at least one team from the 2010 World Cup isn't participating in 2014, because six CAF teams participated in 2010, but only five CAF teams will qualify in 2014. Sometimes a lot of those teams had advanced beyond the first round of the World Cup, and sometimes only a few. The teams that had advanced beyond the first round but didn't make it back to the next World Cup were as follows: 1930 (2): Uruguay, Yugoslavia 1934 (2): Austria, Spain 1938 (4): Cuba, Czechoslovakia, France, Hungary 1950 (2): Spain, Sweden 1954 (2): Switzerland, Uruguay 1958 (4): France, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Wales 1962 (2): Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia 1966 (4): Argentina, Hungary, North Korea, Portugal 1970 (4): England, Mexico, Peru, Soviet Union 1974 (2): East Germany, Yugoslavia 1978 (1): Netherlands 1982 (1): Austria 1986 (7): Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Mexico, Morocco, Paraguay, Poland 1990 (5): Costa Rica, Czechoslovakia, England, Uruguay, Yugoslavia 1994 (3): Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland 1998 (5): Chile, Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Yugoslavia 2002 (5): Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Senegal, Turkey 2006 (3): Ecuador, Sweden, Ukraine 2010: ? Which 2010 World Cup knockout teams won't make it back in 2014? (I left Brazil off the list, since they're hosting 2014.)
A general note: it's tough to talk intelligently about CONMEBOL before the Copa América, so I might regret some of these picks later. But CONMEBOL is qualifying five out of nine teams this cycle, rather than five out of ten, which should make it easier. Argentina -- could be another qualifying adventure ahead of them, but I think it won't actually be quite so tight with the extra spot. Chile -- very tempting to pick them not to come back, as they followed up advancement in 1998 with failure to qualify in 2002. But I think they get the extra spot in CONMEBOL. England -- no one likes having to come back from two goals down at home to draw Switzerland, but one bad result does not a collapse make. Germany -- uh, yeah. Ghana -- home draw against Sudan is a little worrisome, but probably still the second-best team in CAF. Japan -- no reason to expect them to lose their perch as one of the top three teams in AFC. Mexico -- anything's possible, as they flirted with CONCACAF qualifying semifinal elimination last cycle, but certainly favored to qualify. Netherlands -- it wouldn't be the first time they followed up a second-place finish with a failure to qualify, but there's no reason to expect that this time. Paraguay -- four straight qualifications from CONMEBOL, plus an extra spot this time. Portugal -- September 2010 wasn't great, and we might expect a repeat of their qualifying adventures from last cycle, but they did qualify last cycle after those adventures anyway. Slovakia -- the closest I'm getting to picking a knockout team not to qualify next time, but they did squeak into Pot 2 and they're looking pretty good in Euro 2012 qualifying. South Korea -- no reason to expect them to lose their perch as one of the top three teams in AFC. Spain -- certainly not looking like the first champions to fail to qualify for their title defense. United States -- anything's possible, as they flirted with CONCACAF qualifying semifinal elimination two cycles ago, but certainly favored to qualify. Uruguay -- might be a harder pick without the extra CONMEBOL spot. So while I don't really think that, for the first time ever, all 16 knockout teams will qualify for the next World Cup, there's no one team that I think is more likely to fail than to qualify. Edited to add: Oops, I guess I should have included an "I'm checking this option because there's no team that I think is more likely to fail than to qualify" option in the poll. If forced to pick one team, as noted, I'll pick Slovakia.
People are supposed to decide which teams wont make it when no qualifying groups have been drawn? its just a stab in the dark. Pure guess work .
My guesses are Slovakia and Chile. I think there will probably be more, but those two to me won't be making the trip to Brazil.
^^Chile should qualify no problem, CONMEBOL have an extra spot since Brazil are the hosts, and they have a pretty good team. It looks like Slovakia is the obvius pick, but who knows.
Chile is not an obvious pick, just a feeling that they won't make it although I prefer their style of play to Paraguay's. My picks from Conmebol in addition to hosts Brazil: Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay and Ecuador.
I agree that anything's possible, but to say that the flirted with semifinal elimination in 2006 qualifying is a stretch. I assume you're talking about the two road draws they got in the last minute, against Jamaica and Panama. Even if they had lost those two games, they would have gone through (10 points vs. 9 for Panama). If they had lost those games, it would be reasonable to say they were flirting with elimination (even though they eventually would have gone through anyway). I suppose it's fair to say that they flirted with flirting with elimination.
No, two cycles ago, in 2002 qualifying, when they earned 1 point from their first two matches, and later were tied 0-0 in the 62nd minute of a must-win match in Barbados.
Ah, 2002. Yes, that definitely qualifies as flirting. I would have called that three cycles ago, but who's counting?
I don't know why but I have the feeling that at least one team between England, Italy and France will not qualify for Brazil 2014. Their squads seem to be declining, and I don't see any shining young generation coming behind to replace them.
Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Germany, USA, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea are all dominant within their federation and therefore almost certain to qualify. Ghana is highly likely to qualify again, but pitfalls lurk given that they could be paired with teams as strong as Cameroon, Senegal, Morocco, or Tunisia, as well as 2006 qualifiers Angola and Togo. Uruguay, Chile, and Paraguay will be among a group of five similar strength teams (also including Ecuador, and Colombia) fighting for four places, so they all face some risk. Likewise, given the depth of UEFA, the Netherlands, England, and Portugal all face some risk, especially if they are unlucky enough to be drawn in the same group as France. And with teams such as Turkey, the Czechs, Ukraine, and Ireland lurking in Pot 3, the potential for trouble is high. Which leaves....Slovakia...as the team least likely to qualify again.
The BigSoccer import has eaten the poll results, but I found them in a cache. 1.....3.13%.....Argentina 7.....21.88%.....Chile 2.....6.25%.....England 1.....3.13%.....Germany 6.....18.75%.....Ghana 1.....3.13%.....Japan 1.....3.13%.....Mexico 1.....3.13%.....Netherlands 10.....31.25%.....Paraguay 7.....21.88%.....Portugal 27.....84.38%.....Slovakia 4.....12.50%.....South Korea 1.....3.13%.....Spain 1.....3.13%.....Uruguay 1.....3.13%.....USA (There were 32 voters.)
Time for a post-mortem. The two 2010 World Cup knockout teams that didn't qualify for 2014 are Paraguay and Slovakia, which were the top two choices in the poll. Good job, wisdom of crowds.