As World Cup qualifying has just begun, these polls are just in time. Since the World Cup went to 32 teams, there have always been 12 or 13 teams that participated in the World Cup, but didn't participate in the next World Cup. (I refer of course to the final World Cup tournament, not World Cup qualifying.) See this post for the details. We know that at least one team from the 2010 World Cup isn't participating in 2014, because six CAF teams participated in 2010, but only five CAF teams will qualify in 2014. Sometimes a lot of these teams had departed in the first round of the World Cup, and sometimes only a few. The teams that had departed in the first round and didn't make it back to the next World Cup are as follows. 1930 (5): Bolivia, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru 1934 (3): Argentina, Egypt, USA 1938 (7): Belgium, Dutch East Indies, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania 1950 (4): Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, USA 1954 (4): Belgium, Italy, South Korea, Turkey 1958 (3): Austria, Paraguay, Scotland 1962 (1): Colombia 1966 (4): Chile, France, Spain, Switzerland 1970 (6): Belgium, Czechoslovakia, El Salvador, Israel, Morocco, Romania 1974 (6): Australia, Bulgaria, Chile, Congo DR, Haiti, Uruguay 1978 (4): Iran, Mexico, Sweden, Tunisia 1982 (9): Cameroon, Chile, Czechoslovakia, El Salvador, Honduras, Kuwait, New Zealand, Peru, Yugoslavia 1986 (6): Algeria, Canada, Hungary, Iraq, Northern Ireland, Portugal 1990 (4): Austria, Egypt, Scotland, United Arab Emirates 1994 (3): Bolivia, Greece, Russia 1998 (7): Austria, Bulgaria, Colombia, Iran, Jamaica, Morocco, Scotland 2002 (7): Cameroon, China, Nigeria, Russia, Slovenia, South Africa, Uruguay 2006 (10): Angola, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Iran, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia 2010: ? Which 2010 World Cup first-round teams won't make it back in 2014?
Here are my thoughts on those who left in the first round of 2010: Algeria -- easy pick to fail to qualify for 2014, as they're currently last in Group D in 2012 ACN qualifying. Australia -- no reason to expect them to lose their perch as one of the top three teams in AFC. Cameroon -- on the one hand, they've qualified for six of the last eight World Cups, which is as consistent as it gets in CAF. On the other hand, CAF qualifying is a crapshoot, and early indications of their quality aren't great: they're in third place in Group E in 2012 ACN qualifying, with 5 points from 4 games (and 2 points from 3 non-Mauritius games.) Côte d'Ivoire -- the class of CAF, with the best chance of any CAF team to qualify again. Denmark -- so much depends on the draw, including perhaps the 2014 UEFA qualifying draw for playoffs between second-place teams, but I think it slightly more likely that they'll qualify. France -- probably still the Pot 2 team that no one wants to draw, except perhaps Belarus. Greece -- giving them the nod after they squeaked into Pot 1. Honduras -- with a lot of second-tier CONCACAF teams on the rise, and with Pavón's future in doubt after his herniated disc, it's certainly possible that the next wave of Honduras players will bring them back -- they could even defeat Mexico today -- but there are too many ways in which that might not happen. They are better than they seemed at the World Cup, though, after losing so many key players to injury in 2010. Italy -- no signs that the 2010 World Cup implosion was anything but an aberration. New Zealand -- have earned the right to be taken seriously; I'd favor them in a playoff against AFC and probably CONCACAF, but probably not CONMEBOL. So call it a 2/3 chance that they'll make it back. Nigeria -- tough decision. Qualified for four of the last five World Cups. Losing in Guinea is no shame, but drawing in Ethiopia? Just because of the CAF qualifying structure, I'm picking narrowly against them. North Korea -- couldn't even make the final eight in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup. Serbia -- tough to figure out a team that can defeat Germany at the World Cup but earns a draw and a loss in home-and-away matches against Pot 5 team Estonia. May not have the consistency to qualify from UEFA. Slovenia -- not making a name for themselves by earning a draw and a loss in home-and-away matches against Pot 4 team Northern Ireland. South Africa -- actually a team on the rise, but had fallen so low that I can't yet count on them. Might feel differently after ACN 2012. Switzerland -- their UEFA 2012 qualifying Group G performances haven't really been that bad, but Pot 3, ouch.
How about all of them except Australia! Ok...just kidding....kind of. France and Italy are normally almost certain qualifiers, but France could have a tricky path if they get drawn with one of the big six (Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, England, and the Netherlands). And with teams as strong as Turkey, Ireland, the Czechs, and Ukraine lurking in pot 3, nobody will have an easy time of it in UEFA. As for the other UEFA teams (Denmark, Greece, Serbia, Slovenia, and Switzerland), their chances are realtively slim given the past track record of "second tier" UEFA teams. From 2006, only two of seven teams qualified for 2010 (Serbia and Switzerland), and from 2002, only two of nine (Sweden and Croatia) qualified for 2006. And given that no "second tier" UEFA team has quaified for three in a row except Croatia (98-02-06), you've got to think the odds are against Serbia and Switzerland. In fact, Greece probably has the best shot by virtue of being seeded in Pot 1, as long as they avoid France from Pot 2. The Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and South Africa probably have the best shots of the African sides since they will be in Pot 1, as long as they avoid Senegal and Cameroon in the group stage draw. Conversely, Cameroon and Algeria will both be in Pot 2 (they are currently 7th and 9th in the FIFA rankings among African teams) and will therefore have a very tough qualifying path with only the group winners going to Brazil. Honduras has a decent shot, although aside from Costa Rica (02-06), no team from CONCACAF has qualified for two consecutive World Cups. New Zealand's chances will depend on whom they get drawn against in the playoffs, and North Korea's qualification for 2010 has to have been considered a fluke. So if I had to put my money where my mouth is, the only team I'd back at this point in time (i.e. before the draw) would be the Aussies, simply because they will face the fewest risks.
Your 3rd thread which is based around complete guess-work !!! are you going to dig these threads up in 2014?
News from the file marked "Duh!" In a surprise to almost no one, North Korea was just eliminated from 2014 World Cup qualifying.
Re: News from the file marked "Duh!" CAF could adopt the CONMEBOL qualifying format. True CAF has a lot more members, but what if they do 2 rounds of grp qualifications (as will be the case for WCQ 2014) and then at the final round (when they have 10 group winners, do a league involving all 10 teams as in South America? (seems like the best way to go only financial difficulties/Africa with no infrastructure lol, might be a problem... Any way, to answer the question North Korea is out: Cote D'Ivoire & Ghana might not have an easy ride. Contrary to what some think, Cote D'Ivoire is a constellation of names, never has been a team. They have to face Morocco for 1 spot. They historically have a very poor record against North Africans.
An updated analysis... To start with, the odds of one of the big-name African teams not making it became a lot higher with the change in qualifying format, since with the last round now being an unseeded knockout round, two of the big name teams could easily get drawn against each other. Also since my first post on this thread, the groups have been drawn for UEFA qualifying, with some interesting results. France - drawn in the same group as Spain, which means their qualifying path has become more difficult. Denmark - drawn in the same group as Italy and the Czech Republic, so their path is now more difficult. Greece - thanks to sneaking into Pot 1 for the draw and avoiding France from Pot 2, they have an excellent chance of making it again, as the toughest teams in their group are Slovakia and Bosnia. Italy - avoided France, but still in a fairly challenging group with the Czech Republic and Denmark, both of which could knock them into the playoffs if they do not play their best. Serbia - got drawn into what probably is the most interesting group in UEFA qualifying, with Croatia, Belgium, and Scotland, all four of whom could conceivably win the group, or not even make the playoffs. Slovenia & Switzerland - both drawn in the weakest UEFA group, with Norway as their only other competition, so both have an excellent chance of winning their group and qualifying directly.
Re: News from the file marked "Duh!" Forgetting about financial difficulties, a group stage with 4 teams per group and a group stage with 10 teams would require a team to play 24 games to qualify. That's too many.
Re: News from the file marked "Duh!" Oh shot! Nice catch Evan. dumb me didnt take into consideration how many games that will involve. Seems in all honesty CAF has little or no option but to use the group pairings they've been using for decades now.
Re: News from the file marked "Duh!" If anything I would bring down the number of group phase teams to 25 or 30 and have 5 groups with 5 teams (or even 6 if necessary). That would mean 8 or 10 matches per group (winner takes it all) and a preliminary round to eliminate 20+ teams. I'm sure CAF could think of accomodating 8 or 10 matchdays. The worst thing possible is the current format, where the final phase has the best teams in Africa play a two-way tie potentially eliminating regional powerhouses just because of a poor draw.
Re: News from the file marked "Duh!" That was the format up until this year which was just ditched... I would argue that although having knockout rounds at the end will produce more unpredicitbility, it's not necessarily worse than the previous format. it just has the head-to-head matchups between top teams at the end, instead of during the group stages. Given that Africa has more than five "good" teams, there's no way to construct a qualifying format that doesn't have them playing against each other at some point. However, by having ten groups instead of five, the talent is spread thinner across groups, thus giving minnows a better chance to advance, which I think is what CAF wants. Instead of having two top teams in each group, there is only one, and in many cases that one team isn't markedly better than the second best team in the group. For example, you are going to get a minnow coming out of Group E (Burkino Faso/Gabon/Niger) and in Group H, Mali has a good shot at knocking off Algeria.
Re: News from the file marked "Duh!" Not entirely. Normally CAF had 3-4 team groups, which were just too small. Surprisingly the biggest shocks actually came in 2006, when the final round had 6 team qualifier group Yes. But it also can cause i.e. match-ups like Ghana vs Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso vs South Africa. Which means inferior teams can make it to the world cup just because of a lucky draw, while powerhouses are eliminated just because they are put up against each other. Previous formats would at least avoid putting i.e. Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire in one group thanks to seeding.
The BigSoccer import has eaten the poll results, but I found them in a cache. 16.....80.00%.....Algeria 1.....5.00%.....Australia 5.....25.00%.....Cameroon 0.....0.00%.....Côte d'Ivoire 7.....35.00%.....Denmark 0.....0.00%.....France 9.....45.00%.....Greece 12.....60.00%.....Honduras 0.....0.00%.....Italy 8.....40.00%.....New Zealand 3.....15.00%.....Nigeria 17.....85.00%.....North Korea 6.....30.00%.....Serbia 14.....70.00%.....Slovenia 14.....70.00%.....South Africa 9.....45.00%.....Switzerland (There were 20 voters.)
Time for a post-mortem. The teams that departed in the first round of the 2010 World Cup and then didn't qualify for the 2014 World Cup are Denmark, New Zealand, North Korea, Serbia, Slovenia, and South Africa. My personal predictions were for Algeria, Cameroon, Honduras, Nigeria, North Korea, Serbia, Slovenia, South Africa, and Switzerland to fail to qualify. Of those nine teams, 0nly four failed to qualify, and I missed Denmark and New Zealand, so my predictions were pretty far off. The wisdom of crowds was much better, predicting Algeria, Honduras, North Korea, Slovenia, and South Africa; of those five teams, all but Honduras failed to qualify. Denmark and New Zealand were two of the other four closest teams to 50% in the poll (the third and fourth being Greece and Switzerland.)
hee hee.. was just joking when I originally said this, but the latter came very close to not actually qualifying..