I haven't seen anything from last night that makes me change my opinion, but I guess we will find out in due course.
It's still pretty early, but if I'm Panama, I like my chances right now. I wouldn't even rule out Panama qualifying directly. The United States is playing awful right now (loss against Mexico in Columbus and battering by Costa Rica).
Most definitely cannot rule that out. In the last HEX 15 points was enough to finish 3rd easily. If Panama win all their remaining home games that would already put them at 16 points. Seems like a big “IF” but they’ve already played the toughest of those home games and they’re likely to collect a few more points on the road to make-up for any points they might drop at home. That said, this logic depends a bit on whether T&T and Honduras can steal some points off the other 4 teams in the HEX. Right now I'm not sure they can...
Africa: GROUP A: DRCongo is basically Zaire (just a name change), so no - doesn't count... The rest of the teams look out after two games. GROUP B: Zambia had a very slim chance and still has that. GROUP C: Cote d'Ivoire isn't cruising, but Mali looks very far from being a contender. Cote d'Ivoire still look like they'll take this group pretty easily, especially if Mali and Morocco drop points off each other. GROUP D: Burkina Faso meet Senegal in a head to head. After game 4 we will know whether or not they are in or out. GROUP E: Uganda... actually has a pretty decent shot. But they would need to get min. 3 pts off of Egypt in August 2017. Out of all the teams I would say only Burkina Faso and Uganda still look in it.
In a game between two countries who have never qualified, Syria beat Uzbekistan 1:0. Syria is in fourth, 1 point behind Uzbekistan, who is 1 point behind South Korea.
Second time this qualifying that the Uzbeks concede a late winner. They'll be kicking themselves if they don't qualify, especially considering how many points ROK have dropped.
Long way to go. If they beat TnT but lose 4 days later, they'll probably only have a 1 point lead on 4th place. So not sure what you're talking about, Willis.
And it ended up being Panama losing at T&T murking up the waters again. Everyone is alive in the Hex now after last night's results.
Trinidad and Tobago is alive, but they're going to need points against USA and/or Mexico. If they lose to Mexico on Tuesday and at USA in June, they will be in bad shape halfway through.
Well you are talking to someone who knows a lot about Panama's manager. And knowing him... ... it is not that shocking. Also T&T was going to get points somewhere and Panama was the most likeliest of candidates out of the 5. Oh well. Makes things a tiny bit more interesting.
Ehhh, I would've said Honduras was the likeliest. Yeah it does, I guess. However T&T will not get far, as I believe they will lose on Tuesday. That will kill their momentum.
My round up through the latest March Matchdays: Asia: Best Hopes: Uzbekistan - They've come oh so close numerous times but just haven't been able to do it. They currently sit semi comfortably in third which would put them in playoff position, and are one point behind South Korea for an automatic spot. Their last 3 games aren't particularly favorable as they have to go on the road to group leader Iran next and then play @China afterwards. They wrap up at home with South Korea which could potentially setup a win and in scenario if they don't fall too far behind over the next couple games. A playoff wouldn't end of the world as this time Asia get's CONCACAF instead of CONMEBOL, but it would lessen their chances quite a bit. Unlikely but worth a mention: Syria - The only thing they have going for them is that their next 2 fixtures are at "home" (well at least not away) against the 2 weakest teams in their group China and Qatar, mix that with The Uzbeks having to play away for their next 2 and it's not unthinkable that Syria could catch up to them going into the last matchday. Problem is that last match would be Iran in Tehran. Africa: Best Hopes: Burkina Faso - They did come really close 4 years ago, and do currently sit at the top of Group D (on goal differential). Only issue for them is dropping 2 points and not winning their home opener against South Africa could come back to bite them in the unforgiving CAF process. They get 2 games with Senegal up next which should gives us a better picture of where they stand. Unlikely but worth a mention: Gabon - Picked up a draw in their first 2 games and currently sit tied in second with Morocco 2 points behind group leaders Ivory Coast. They play Ivory Coast twice home and away in their next 2 qualifiers so if they pickup a surprise in those then maybe. Uganda - Picked up a stunning draw away at Ghana to open the group and did hold serve at home in their second game against Congo. Sit in 2nd 2 points behind Egypt and play them in their next 2 games. Problem is they sit 2 points out as is and with 3 of their last 4 games being against Egypt and Ghana I just don't see it. CONCACAF: Best Hope: Panama - The only never qualifier still standing in CONCACAF. Could finally be the year with Honduras currently having a really mediocre cycle. Though they're one point ahead of The US currently, it's hard for me to see them finishing top 3. They appear to be in prime position for at least a playoff spot though. OFC: Unlikely but worth a mention: Papua New Guinea, Tahiti, and Solomon Islands - All 3 are still alive in Group B, and if Papua New Guinea and The Solomon Islands split their last 2, you could even get a 3 way tie for first in the group. It gets pretty brutal for the winner though as they'd have to go on and shock New Zealand in a 2 leg playoff. If they manage that then the task gets about 10 times harder with CONMEBOL's 5th place team awaiting them. Probably not this year for these 3, though morbid curiosity really has me rooting for a Papua New Guinea/Argentina playoff. UEFA: Best Hopes: Iceland - The darling from last summer has a chance to do it again in Russia. They currently sit second in Group I, 2 points ahead of both Turkey and Ukraine while being 3 points behind Croatia for the outright spot. 3 of their last 5 matches are at home and they do host Croatia next which could give them chance to move into a tie for first (though goal differential very much favors The Croatians) Montenegro - Poland running away with Group E has created a bit of a log jam in the middle of the group for 2nd. They currently sit in 2nd beating Denmark on goal differential, while sitting 1 point ahead of both Romania and Armenia. They do get the 2 easiest teams in their group next, and then both Denmark and Romania at home following those. Ending the group in Warsaw isn't ideal, but they can give themselves a bit of a buffer in their next 4 games. Unlikely but worth a mention: Azerbaijan - Most of teams in this section are benefiting from one team dominating their group and creating a tight race for second. Azerbaijan is no different. They're in 4th but only 3 points behind Northern Ireland and 1 behind The Czechs. They do get The Northern Irish in Baku next and a win would maybe help me buy into their chances a bit more. Armenia - Montenegro, Denmark, Romania, and Armenia all sit within a point of each other for the race for 2nd in Group E. I think they're the weakest of the 4 though and having to go on the road to Montenegro and Romania for their next 2 doesn't help. Lithuania - This one is a bit of a reach as they currently sit 5th, 4 points out the second spot. I'm only going to list them because their next 2 are at home against Scotland and Slovakia. If they hold serve in those they could creep up the standings.
I agree with your UEFA Group E assessment, and would just add that (regretfully) Group E is the group whose 2nd place team is the one most likely to miss the UEFA playoffs. Montenegro and Denmark currently share 2nd in Group E, and both are two points behind the next worse 2nd place side, which is Slovakia in Group F.
Syria should hope for Iran to qualify by beating Uzbekistan in June. Then maybe Iran wouldn't use their best players on August 31 and September 5.
Panama took a good step forward this evening with their point at Costa Rica. Add in Honduras' blowout loss to Mexico in the Azteca and they are in a really good position. A win against the Hondurans on Tuesday could basically hand them the playoff spot against Asia at worst. (Of course they could still blow it somehow but things look good.)
Panama will win on Sunday. I still can't believe they lost against T&T, but that will be their only mistake this Hexagonal. Mexico will qualify upon winning against the US and later beating Panama in September. I believe the Nads and Panama will qualify directly over Costa Rica, who will later make it via the intercontinental playoff.
With Australia, Japan and Saudi Arabia being very probable candidates for the international playoff whichever CONCACAF team plays the Asia team will not have an easy task.