What Polling Got Wrong.

Discussion in 'Elections' started by American Brummie, Nov 12, 2016.

  1. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    It's hard to go past the scandalously inept management of Clinton's campaign now we know about how bad things were looking in the 3 key rust belt states

    Why was more effort not made there?

    And even then she would likely have won if not for Comey

    So I am not on the Trump marketing genius bandwagon personally, especially given how many laughable gaffes his campaign made.
     
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  2. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
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    It also ignores that Clinton got significantly more votes AND her campaigned completely ignored reports from the field that suggested things weren't rosy in the "firewall" states.

    She had an office about a block from the coffeeshop where I hang out: they were getting worried about 3 weeks out, and were close to depressed about a week out, because by then it was clear that the national campaign was ignoring reports from the local offices that said Trump was making in-roads: it wasn't what the national office's data was telling them, so they ignored it.

    How did that work out?

    EDIT: just saw your above post that says pretty much the same thing.
     
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  3. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I suggested it before, and I see Vox is reporting it now too: the Clinton campaign bungled this election because they believed too confidently in their data.

    The radically simple reason Hillary Clinton didn’t run a different campaign: she thought she was winning
     
  4. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

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    Well, the only thing is, the book says 1) look at national polls, 2) look at your internal polls, and 3) listen to the reports from the field. If thay all agree, you're good to go. if there is dissonance, look into it. They failed to look into the problematic reports from field offices, which were coming in well before future KGB dirctor Comey's intervention. That carelessness (arrogance), in my view, has more to do with Trump's election than 3rd and 4th party candidates.
     
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  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I think "the book" is an unhelpful analogy in that quote.

    They believed their data -- meaning their quantitative data -- even when it conflicted with qualitative data from the field.

    That was the problem. They never saw cause to question whether the quantitative data was wrong, which it was. They never saw it because they believed the numbers.
     
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  6. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    That's also why I don't believe this spin about Kushner's facebook marketing genius

    Even Trump's campaign thought it was lost - and it likely was until Comey

    FB is a walled part of the internet and is massive.

    Virtually every consumer brand and small business has been doing FB marketing for years.

    Hell Obama was doing this stuff in 2012.

    Clinton will also have spent loads of digital and done exactly the same things.

    The weird part is how little resource she put into her Firewall states

    To be fair to the clinton campaign, the Coney thing probably did come too late to react to.
     
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  7. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    As we know, they were wasting money on winning that last electoral college vote whilst Michigan was burning!
     
  8. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Yeah, but fvck it lets put the blame on 3rd party voters.
     
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  9. dapip

    dapip Member+

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    Didn't they campaign on #bothcandidatesarethesame?
     
  10. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    There can be more than one reason you know!
     
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  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Both were bad in the minds of people, it is what it is, sure between Hitler and Stalin you perhaps would vote for Staling because he was the lesser of 2 evils, but some people may prefer to throw away their vote and go for Mussolini or Mao.

    I actually liked Clinton, but many people did not, you can blame them all you want if that makes you feel better and deflect from the realities of the DNC as a party.

    Nah, if you hear people in the left it was all racism.
     
  12. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
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    What does this phrase mean?
     
  13. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Democratic party would have been better.
     
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  14. dapip

    dapip Member+

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    #114 dapip, Nov 28, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
    Interesting choices of dictators. That is exactly what the MSM and the third parties sold. We are getting Cheeto Benito when we could have got Merkel or maybe Obama's 3rd term.

    I read an interesting article this weekend (not in the mood to look for it) that said it was sexism. The chants of "lock her up" and "Nasty woman" are actually meant to payback against a woman that challenged the established hierarchy and defied the usual sex roles. Racism was also part of the mix, as it was overconfidence on the polls and an out of tune message for the frail WWC. Actually ******** the frail egos of the WWC.
     
  15. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    In what way was he the lesser of 2 evils?

    As far as the west goes, he was simply a pragmatic option which turned into a nightmare when he occupied a large part of eastern europe for 40 years
     
  16. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    You are applying your bias logic here (one that I agree with), but you are failing to see the other side, as stupid as it may sound to you and me, to many people H. Clinton was a bad otio0n and being scared of Trump was not enough for people to vote for her.

    How was Florida turnout among typical democrat voters? That lost Clinton more votes that Stein got.

    People have the right to make that choice if the big two parties put up shitty candidates from their POV.

    The blame is on the DNC and Clinton for not selling themselves, not Stein and Johnson and their voters.

    Deflecting will only get the DNC to lose more elections. Is not like the Democrats won state races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania while losing the Presidential election. In Pennsylvania the Libertarian got almost 4% of the vote, but then you would have to show that over 50% (maybe even 60%) of his votes would have gone to McGinty.

    That shows IMO that those 3rd party votes never belonged to the democrats.

    And the argument that Trump is evil is bullshit and you know it, because if it was Rubio you would be making the same argument, just like people did with Gore vs. Bush.
     
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  17. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    ok, so you would have voted for Hitler, the point still stands.
     
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  18. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    I would not vote for either I was just wondering how Stalin was a lesser evil in your mind?
     
  19. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    But voting 3rd party is wasting your vote and then you are guilty of one of them becoming president.
     
  20. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
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    Huh? Yes, there is a lot of rhetoric about racism (correctly), but I have come across very few who have left it at that.

    I came across something in the past week which talked about the more subtle forms of sexism which exist for women in powerful positions, or seeking such roles. One of them is that the woman's first name is used (eg "Cooked Hillary") while the male's last name is used ("Trump that bitch"). And it occurs when both men and women talk about women seeking such roles. There were other things women had to deal with as well, things about a woman's voice versus a male's voice, casual descriptions of personalities (mean versus strong, weak versus friendly), etc. I haven't looked at this in this election in any detail, but I imagine that with 60 million votes, there had to be a lot of these things come to mind, and might help explain why more women voted for Trump then expected.
     
  21. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    Seeing as how Clinton is nowhere near Stalin in this analogy I don't really get your point
     
  22. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Clinton lost the not college educated women vote right? So I guess that women can also be sexist


    And that is my point, sure there are Xenophobic reason on why some people voted for Trump, but Clinton dropped 10% points from Obama with people making less than 30K, there is much more than they are all racist that many people on the left are trying to make.


    To be fair, this guy is a British guy.
     
  23. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Not to you and not to me, but to many other she was. That is why they voted 3rd party among other reasons. Some just could not get them selves to vote for her, my boss is a hard core democrat and he claims that he left the President selection black, in Illinois that does not matter and he did say that if we were in a swing state he would have voted Clinton.

    3rd party voters do not have to vote for your favorite politician. Shit they do not have to vote at all if they do not want to, blaming them for Trump is stupid and scapegoating.
     
  24. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    So surely the conclusion is that such voters are simply stupid.
     
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  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Don't forget deplorables, that is the best way to get them to vote Democrat in the future.
     

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