Conference play starts this week Through Sunday, Sept. 24 Gonzaga 8-1-1 Pepperdine 6-2-2 Loyola Marymount 5-2-3 Santa Clara 5-5-1 San Francisco 4-5-2 Saint Mary's 4-6-0 BYU 3-4-3 Pacific 3-6-2 Portland 3-6-1 San Diego 2-8-0 Preseason Coaches Poll 1. Santa Clara (5 first place votes), 76 points 2. BYU (5), 75 3. Pepperdine, 68 4. Loyola Marymount, 57 5. Portland, 46 6. San Francisco, 38 7. San Diego, 33 8. Gonzaga, 24 8. Saint Mary's, 24 10. Pacific, 9 All White Kit Projection 1. BYU 2. Pepperdine 3. Santa Clara 4. Loyola Marymount 5. Saint Mary’s 6. Pacific 7. San Francisco 8. San Diego 9. Portland 10. Gonzaga
Gonzaga finishes ninth in conference last year, then hires a BYU coach and now they're off and running.
My full season simulation's final standings based on actual results through Sunday, September 24 and simulated results for the rest of the season: 1 SantaClara 2 Pepperdine 3 LoyolaMarymount 4 Gonzaga 5 BYU 6 SanFrancisco 7 PortlandU 8 SanDiegoU 9 Pacific 10 StMarys
Right now, I have Santa Clara, Pepperdine, and Loyola Marymount getting into the tournament. BYU and Gonzaga are within the ranking level of teams that potentially can get into the tournament. All other teams are poorly ranked enough that history says none of them will get into the tournament. "History says" means that, over the last 10 years, the most poorly ranked team at this stage of the season to get into the tournament was #148. The five teams I've listed are the only WCC teams currently within the top 148. If BYU or Gonzaga were to do well enough to come in ahead of one or more of the three I have in the tournament, then one or more of the teams I have in the tournament almost certainly will drop out. So, I'd say that maybe three, but even four would be very unlikely. Five, I think, simply isn't going to happen, not even close.
Given the BYU loss to USD and Pepperdine's thrashing of Santa Clara over this past weekend, what do the simulated rankings look like now CPThomas?
They don't look that different. My bracket simulation still puts Pepperdine, Santa Clara, and Loyola Marymount in the tournament. The simulation already had anticipated Santa Clara's loss, and the extent of the loss doesn't matter. And, Gonzaga and BYU -- and San Francisco -- are in the range of theoretical possibilities. But, if Pepperdine, Santa Clara, and LMU finish 1, 2, 3, that's about it.
Through tonight 10/27, there is a 5-way tie for last place with Gonzaga, San Francisco, Saint Mary’s, Pacific and Portland. Should be an exciting final week!
cpthomas, was Pepperdine’s scoreless tie today with St. Mary’s a significant RPI setback for the Waves?
After the dust cleared, the race to the West Coast Conference basement ended in a tie among Gonzaga, Pacific and Portland.
Gonzaga got off to a hot start but when you look at their non-conference schedule, they really didn’t play anybody of significance so the last place finish isn’t a surprise. The surprise to me was USF. They beat some really good teams, lost to some others 0-1 and then just stunk it up on some games that looked like a potential win on paper.
One of Portland’s five wins this year was on an own goal against UC Davis. Should that goal be counted among Portland’s 11 total goals for the season? Or, more accurately, should the total be 10?