WC 2010 Qualifiers Europe: Who is the saddest Runner-up

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by Gibraldo, Jan 11, 2008.

  1. Gibraldo

    Gibraldo Member+

    radnicki nis
    Serbia
    Nov 17, 2005
    Club:
    FK Crvena Zvezda Beograd
    Hi,

    for those who know the qualification rules, the weakest runner-up of the nine european group will be out, without having a chance in the playoffs.

    IMHO, a very stupid system to solve it. They could have done better by having only 8 group winners reaching 2010 and the ninth goes into playoffs with ALL nine runners-up, battling out the remaining 5 spots.

    Anyway, which group do you predict to produce the saddest, because weakest runner-up and which groups are save in your point of view.

    Please consider, that for the runner-up table only matches among the 5 firstplace teams will count.

    I think, the clue is, how dense a group is. The higher the quality of the teams from pot 4 or 5, the denser it will be and the fewer points, the runner-up will catch from the direct matches

    My prediction:

    Group 3: very dense and competitive. My top tip for producing the saddest runner up
    Group 6: very tough group with Kazakhstan improving a lot and Belarus still capable to upset. Shortly behind Group 3.
    Group 8: Very tough because they have montenegro which i would rate from their quality like cyprus and georgia at least.
    Group 1: a strong candidate: Albania and Hungary are definitely capable to get points from Portugal, Denmark or Sweden.
    Group 2: the same like group 1: Teams like Israel or Switzerland will do hard in Latvia or Moldova.
    Group 7: depends much on Austria in the euro 2008. Lithaunia is very week in my eyes. The second placed to should be safe.
    Group 5: Armenia and Bosnia seem not so competitive and even belgium is shaky. If Spain and Turkey put their efforts together, they will produce a finalist for the 2010 edition and a playoff place for sure.
    Group 4: I would almost bet, the 2nd placed here will reach the playoffs. Especially Azerbaijan is good for 6 points to be collected against them.
    Group 9: Macedonia and Iceland will catch some points but too few to endanger the runner-up to be out here.

    So my tip is group 3.

    What is you guess?
     
  2. Sagy

    Sagy Member

    Aug 6, 2004
    Re: WC 2008 Qualifiers Europe: Who is the saddest Runner-up

    The second place team will lose at least 3 points (split with 1st place and win all others) and no more than 18 points (two loses to 1st place and 6 ties with teams 3-5). However, I can't see two 2nd place team losing 12 points or more. I also can't see a case in which the worst 2nd place team lost less than 8 points
    • Group 1: The second place team will lose at least 6 points and maybe as many as 9.
    • Group 2: I think that the second place team will only drop points to teams 1 & 3 (5 to 7 range).
    • Group 3: Slovakia is likely to take some points and the 1st place team might sweep the 2nd, best case 7 and even 11 is a possibility.
    • Group 4: I can see Germany and Russia not dropping any points to the other 4. Might very well be the second place team with the best point total.
    • Group 5: Much like group 4 with two teams (Spain and Turkey) above the rest.
    • Group 6: Very similar to group 2, but the delta from the top 2 to the 3rd pot team is larger.
    • Group 7: If Austria takes points from the 2nd place team, this group will deliver the worst second place team. In the most optimistic view 2nd place will lose 6 points to teams 1 & 3 and both the 4th and 5th teams could take some points.
    • Group 8: Repeat of groups 2 & 6, except the delta between Italy and the others is wider which might hurt the second place team.
    • Group 9: Wide open, anywhere from -3 (bare minimum) to -12 (two loses to top team and 3 ties)

    My ranking:
    1. Group 7 (gut feeling)
    2. Group 3 ("smart money")
    3. Group 9 (no truly easy games)
    4. Group 1 (3 well matched teams)
    5. Group 8 (an Italian sweep plus two even teams)
    6. Group 2 (one of the top 3 will stumble)
    7. Group 6 (I think Ukraine on a down turn)
    8. Group 5 (Don't see second place team losing 9 points)
    9. Group 4 (see above)
     
  3. pauldavid

    pauldavid New Member

    May 3, 2008
    Amsterdam
    I think Sweden will end up being the weakest runner-up (group 1).
     
  4. flem16

    flem16 Rainmaker

    Jan 9, 2005
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good question, predictions are always fun so I'll take a stab at it. I agree with what others have said...the worst 2nd place finisher will be from a group that has strength that goes beyond the top two.

    Groups where the 2nd place finisher is guaranteed safe:
    Group 2 - the bottom 3 teams in this group are so bad that they may not take more than a point or two off of Greece, Israel and Switzerland...this group is safe
    Group 4 - Germany wins this and Russia qualifies 2nd with room to spare. The bottom of this group won't take any points from the top 2

    Relatively safe but still a small chance of failure:
    Group 5 - Spain has a cakewalk and Turkey should make it as the #2. Belgium and Bosnia will be the only teams that causes problems, if any.
    Group 6 - Croatia and England are the top 2 and I'd say this may be more straightforward than it seems because Ukraine isn't that good anymore. The bottom team here are also very weak.

    Potential problems for 2nd place team:
    Group 1 - Portugal wins but the battle is between Sweden and the Danes for 2nd. In past years Sweden would have been without a doubt in the field but they are in a downcycle and could concede important points, especially on the road.
    Group 7 - Like group 1, there is a good deal of strength at the top with France, Romania, and Serbia. Romania and Serbia are especially capable of laying an egg in important matches and I could see either of those two putting themselves in danger of not accumulating enough points to qualify for the playoff
    Group 9 - The Dutch win the group and the runner up will either be Scotland or Norway. Do they beat up each other enough along with potential stumbles at Macedonia and Iceland to fall out of the top 8?

    These groups could very well field the 2nd place team that doesn't qualify for the playoff:
    Group 3 - The Czechs are safe but the rest of this group could beat up on each other so much that the #2 could fail to accumulate enough points. San Marino is the only automatic here and they are the 6th place team so those points won't even count. Top to bottom this group is the most even and therefore my pick for second place loser.
    Group 8 - If it isn't group 3 it could be this one. The Italians will qualify but after that who knows. This is a group where the 6th seeded team could take points from virtually anyone. Montengro is a new footballing nation but have a handful of legitimate players that have already produced results for country. Trips to Cyprus are never easy (ask Ireland) and Irish will certainly try to pull off some magic under Trapattoni.
     
  5. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Seems like it'll be group 7 IMO. Results against the last place team are dropped, so if France wins, you have no easy points for the other four teams. Lithuania and Austria may be weak, but they will probably get at least 4-5 points each off the the top 5.
     
  6. Gibraldo

    Gibraldo Member+

    radnicki nis
    Serbia
    Nov 17, 2005
    Club:
    FK Crvena Zvezda Beograd
    When the draws had been made i was quite sure, that the second best of group 7 might be the loser of this 9 runner-up comparison, but now i have other groups as favorites for bringing on the worst 2nd best team.

    I would either estimate a very narrow group to have this unlucky team or one group with a first team that is winning it all.

    So let`s check through:

    Group 1: Chances are high. A lot of draws + Denmark with a good leap now. Also it seems quite narrow from place 2 to 5 with Albania getting even a draw in Portugal
    Group 2: chances are small. Swiss, Greece and Israel will surely outclass the other 3 teams leaving the 2nd best at least about 8-10 games alone out of 4 matches vs. Latvia, Moldova, Liechtenstein (whoever will finish 4th and 5th.
    Group 3: chances are mediocre: I think Northern Ireland cannot keep the pace of Poland, Slovakia, Czechia and Slovenia. I assume also Slovenia to fall of in the end of the campaign. As we have few draws here i don`t think the worst runner up will come from here
    Group 4: chances are very small: Germany + Russia are save to battle for place 1 and two, letting of some points here and there but enough to have the runner-up having a solid amount of points
    Group 5: chances are small: Spain will win this, but Bosnia, Turkey and Belgium will compete for place two. I am quite sure they will have enough points as two matches vs. Armenia and Estonia might count.
    Group 6: chances are very small: The same like with group 4. Kazachstan is a sure 6 point deliverer for the runner-up. Belarus won`t be able to compete. First will be England, Ukraine and Croatia battle out the 2nd placed team which might surely reach the playoffs
    Group 7: chances are mediocre: depends on Austria and Romania which are far behind us and Lithuania and also behind France. Might the have a comeback? I doubt it, especially with Austria. Lithuania will also loose strength, so i am quite sure at the moment, that Serbia and France will battle it out and the second placed team will then have enough for the playoffs with solid points against Austria and Romania/Lithuania.
    Group 8: chances are high: Ireland seems solid with 7 points out of 3 matches, but they were not looking that good so far. I think, they might even lose two time to Italy. All in all, this group seems very dense behind the italians and is producing a lot of draws which is bad for the second placed team.
    Group 9: chances are very high: Quite similar to group 8 with Netherlands seem to be even more domination and more than Georgia/cyprus might do harm to Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Scotland and Macedonia seem all very narrow. At the moment, my tip for producing the worst runner-up!
     
  7. Gibraldo

    Gibraldo Member+

    radnicki nis
    Serbia
    Nov 17, 2005
    Club:
    FK Crvena Zvezda Beograd
    Oh, how wise i've been once :-D
     

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