If opponents are the same, it is the most fair way to decide whom is the best. The fact, teams have diferent styles is no excuse, as no one forces them to play on a given style. Of course it affects the scoreline, but teams chose those styles basicly because it is the style that brings them the best results.
Maybe for the time being, but I always think head to head is a much better judgement. There are also many factors to consider. If its still equal with head to head, in that case I would look at both teams performance against the same opponents. Like for example when the WC comes look at how both teams fare against Belgium for example.
I tend to agree that head-to-head is better in this situation. Although I kind of like using GD in the world cup itself. Head to head is too severe in a 3-game group stage because if you lose your first game then its almost impossible to overcome that team you lost to. You have to overcome 4 points. But when the head-to-head involves 2 games (home-and-away) then that should be the tiebreaker. Not though that in this particular case head-to-head probably wouldn't help Italy unless they get a 2-2 draw (or higher) in the Bernabeu.
As this thread is about Uefa's WC qualifiers, why not stick to those opponents from the same group, instead ?. And that is not only against one opponent, but 4 others, diferent than Spain and Italy.
Portugal has bad defenders and good offence in Andre Gomes, Ronaldo, Nani , Quaresma , Joao Mario. They wont concede much because of possession playstyle and hte fact that Fernando Santos has a very defensive Mentality. But vs a better opponent when they wont be able to keep that possession they ll probably lose in my opinion.
FINALLY someone said it. Those Bosnians have been crying so much about the Greek Defensive football and how "happy" they are that their team is not playing so boring (probably butthurt coz we re getting better results than them lately) meanwhile if you look at their squad you ll see that their only "talent" is up front and if they try to play defensive they dont have any significant player to be able to keep the defence (since Spahic got old and left). You pickk a style based on your own roster and the opposission. Not based on what the crowd wants to see. Gah.
Goal differential is the tiebreaker, and tiebreakers matter. In World Cup 2006 Qualifying, Switzerland won a tiebreaker for second, won a playoff, and won their World Cup group. In World Cup 2010 Qualifying, Costa Rica lost a tiebreaker for third and lost a playoff with Uruguay by 1. Even if you prefer head-to-head, Spain kind of has that as of now because they got a draw in Italy.
You are right that goal difference is the way FIFA judges it, but I am not sure if thats the best way. Anyway thats just on who makes first or second, doesn't mean they are better. We will really find out when the world cup comes. Spain would still be ahead even if it was head to head as of now. We will see when we play Spain in a couple months. Even if Spain beat us there depending on the circumstances you could also argue that it was in Spain. Anyway lets just wait until the world cup happens and then we can really judge.
Group A: France, Sweden Group B: Portugal Group C: Germany Group D: Wales, Republic of Ireland Group E: Denmark, Poland Group F: England, Slovakia Group G: Spain Group H: Belgium Group I (Group of Death): Turkey
I think Croatia will be okay. Very close group, but they have by far the best goal differential which might be important in the end.
This would be my prediction for the second-place teams: Italy, Switzerland, Wales, Slovakia, Turkey, Sweden, No. Ireland, Denmark(, Greece - worse record). The first 4 listed would be seeded based on the current FIFA rankings.
Massive upcoming games ... Group A : Netherlands - Sweden on Oct. 10th. Netherlands may go into this game with still a chance. Group D : Wales - Ireland on Oct. 9th. This will most likely be the deciding match to see who qualifies for playoff. Group E : Montenegro - Denmark on Oct. 5th. Moment of truth. Both teams tied on 16 points, fighting for 2nd place. Poland - Montenegro on Oct. 8th. Poland may still need a point here to win group. If Montenegro wins their game against Denmark, they'll have everything to play for in Poland. Group F : Scotland - Slovakia on Oct. 5th. Scotland with a chance to leapfrog Slovakia into 2nd place. Slovenia - Scotland on Oct. 8th. Could be the moment of truth for Scotland, against a Slovenia team that may still be alive themselves. Group H : Cyprus - Greece on Oct. 7th. Tiny Cyprus can still keep their small chances alive here with 3 points. Group I : Turkey - Iceland on Oct. 6th. Turkey with a chance to jump into 2nd place, or even 1st place with a little help. Ukraine - Croatia on Oct. 9th. Both teams likely still alive for either 1st place or 2nd place in this tight group.
And Wales will be without Gareth Bale in this match, and the one with Georgia beforehand. Potentially a huge blow to their hopes of qualifying.
Step 1 for the Dutch would be to beat Belarus by at least 2 goals more than Sweden beats Luxemboug by. That's a tall order, but if it happens then the match on the 10th could get interesting.
Group C: Portugal v. Switzerland on the final day of qualifying. With Portugal playing Andorra the game before, a win is almost guaranteed. Given Portugal's vastly superior goal difference, for Switzerland, it makes little difference if they beat or draw with Hungary in their first match this month. Either way they would be ahead of Portugal going into the last game meaning a draw in Lisbon would see them through. Even if they do beat Hungary and go into the decider 3 points ahead, they would still miss out if they lose to Portugal, given the goal difference. So two draws would do the job for the Swiss. Portugal, on the other hand, must win the decider (assuming Switzerland don't lose to Hungary).
True. Beating Hungary only helps them in the FIFA rankings, and they still have a chance at being a top seed for the WC draw. But yeah... since they still have work to do just to qualify, I don't think they care about that right now.
Cyprus trails Greece by 3 points and 10 goal differential (and Cyprus trails Bosnia-Herzegovina by 4 points). Greece ends hosting Gibraltar, and if Greece wins that game they will finish ahead of Cyprus on points or goal differential.