For the 75 UEFA Champions league Knockout Rounds matchups from 2010-2011 to 2014-2015, I looked at which club had the higher club coefficient at the start of the season and which club had the better Group Stage performance that season. I used rank, points, goal differential, goals scored, away goal differential, and away goals scored in that order as tiebreakers although I never needed all of those tiebreakers. I made rank the first criteria rather than points because in the Round of 16 each matchup has a first place club hosting the second leg against a second place, therefore showing that UEFA rewards a first place club with 11 points over a second place club with 12 points. Here are my results: 38 times both methods predicted the club that advanced (or the winner of the Final) 10 times both methods were wrong 16 times the methods disagreed and the Group Stage performance method was correct 11 times the methods disagreed and the higher club coefficient method was correct The Group Stage performance method was correct 54 times (exactly 72%) and the higher club coefficient method was correct 49 times (65.3%). When the methods disagreed, the Group Stage performance method was correct 59.3% of the time. If you tell me your e-mail address I will e-mail you the spreadsheet I made.