That at least 35 teams have a realistic chance to win the National Title in a given season. In fact, this is the first time that even 15 teams have a realistic chance to win the Title, let alone 35. But at least 35 teams can win it this year. PARITY (it's fubbing here). There are no dominant teams. There is so much parity between the #1 team and the #35 team, and everything in between. The gap between the #1 and #35 team is closer now than it was between the #1 and #10 team a decade ago. In 2006, the #10 team just didn't realistically have a chance in the tournament against UNC. But in 2016, any of these 35+ teams could get to the College Cup, and then it's anyone's trophy from there. Stanford, Duke, West Virginia, and Florida State still have the most professional (individual) talent. But they've all had better "teams" in the past. They're just not clicking on all cylinders yet. If they do, then this 35+ team pool narrows down to virtually 4 (clear-cut) best teams. Virginia is a wild-card, but they don't have the individual talent they had when they featured Brian, Doniak, Colaprico, and Sonnett, together in 2012, 2013 & 2014. Even Rutgers is pretty good again (which is somewhat surprising). They lost a lot of their top players from last year's College Cup team. UCLA is a very athletic team this year. If only they had Mallory Pugh with Jessie Fleming this year, they could win the National Title (even without Ashley Sanchez, who is due to join them next season). Still, even without Pugh, they could realistically get to the College Cup this year, and as I said earlier, it's anyone's game from there if those Top 4 teams don't bring their "A-Game". And Ashley Hatch has 11 goals so far for BYU. This looks like the best BYU team of all time (even better than their 2012 team). Hatch is the difference between those two teams (Ashley Hatch > Carlee Payne). But as of now, there are at least 35+ teams: ACC: Florida State, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest Pac 12: Stanford, UCLA, USC, Cal, Washington State Big Ten: Penn State, Minnesota, Rutgers, Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State SEC: Florida, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn Big 12: West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech Big East: Georgetown, St. John's AAC: UCONN, South Florida WCC: BYU, Pepperdine Others: Princeton, South Alabama And I'm probably forgetting at least one or two more teams who deserve recognition here. Any of these teams can get to the College Cup, realistically. And as long as Stanford, Duke, West Virginia, or Florida State do not bring their "A-Game" (which is very possible in any given match this year), then any of these teams can win in the College Cup itself. So far, there are no "Great" teams this year. There are a ton of "Good" teams this year. A slew of them.
I agree with you completely about this possibility of all those teams making the college cup. But you must have meant Boston College, instead of Wake. BC is a good/dangerous team. Wake is now trending downward, since they're in the heart of the acc schedule
Yes for both Wake and BC (I forgot about them). The ACC is stacked (again). I'm not sold on NC State without Katie Stengel's sister, who is a very good player.
I agree with you on this year having parity but you are basing most of this on non conference play, so 35+ is not that realistic. For example TCU is 7-1-1 their loss and tie are against the only two teams above .500 they have played. Very similar is Wake Forest their two losses came from opponents with winning records, 6 of their wins are against teams below the .500 mark. South Alabama beat FSU 1-0 being out shot 30-5, well they also beat Arkansa State 1-0. There are teams that appear to be very good on paper at the moment, but they won't see the likes of Lamar, Florida International, and Arkansas State in route to the college cup. Let them win their first conference game before declaring they have a shot at the whole thing.
So you're thinking 25 instead of 35 teams then? It's still going to be the most competitive NCAA tournament ever.
Defense is critical for winning the NCAA Tournament. In the modern era, no team has won the Tournament with a goals against average that exceeded 0.7. That's rounded off, so call it 0.75. Based on current GAAs, through yesterday's (9/24's) games, the following teams meet that standard: Florida State Virginia Notre Dame Wake Forest Stanford Southern California California Rutgers Michigan Northwestern Texas A&M South Carolina West Virginia TCU St Johns South Florida BYU South Alabama The following don't: Duke North Carolina Clemson Virginia Tech UCLA Washington State Penn State Minnesota Ohio State Florida Arkansas Auburn Oklahoma Texas Tech Georgetown Connecticut Pepperdine Princeton
Absolutely it will be competitive and possibly see some new faces, I just think it is too early now to say 25 teams have a shot, I think by Nov 1st we will be saying 10-15 Texas A&M lost to Vandy and Alabama this weekend, TCU still hasn't beat a team that will make the NCAA tourney so their record is soft, South Alabama is one of the best mid majors the past few years but they've won their last two conference games 1-0 in a very poor conference which means they will be a first or second round exit from the tournament. It will fluctuate as always as these power5 teams get against some better competition, Wake for example is 0-3 in ACC and NC State is 2-1 both have an 8-3 record.