The Road Ahead – Analysis of schedules, seeding and potential for deep SKC 2017 Playoff Run

It is now the last quarter of the season, and as of this writing, with SKC’s much needed 2-0 win over Dallas, our team sits 3pts on top of a crowded West (which I don’t expect to last for even a single day), but with many teams behind us having games in hand.

This analysis will look at SKC and competitor’s schedule to gauge the odds of SKC being seeded high enough to go deep into MLS Cup. The stair step thresholds that increase SKC chances are as follows:

1. Make the playoffs as #5-#6 conference seed. I won’t spend time analyzing getting to this spot. This isn’t good enough for me and might as well be the end of our season and no chance of getting to MLS Cup (I invoke Gods of Soccer Karma, etc. to PLEASE prove me wrong and/or reverse jinx this). As #5 or #6 seed, we all know what happened the last 3 seasons. Close, but soul crushing losses on the road to end the season. If SKC is a 5 or 6 seed again, I'll place 10% chance of reaching MLS Cup .

2. Host a “wildcard game” as the #3-#4 seed. Better than the above, but still not good enough for me. Even though SKC has been undefeated at home so far this year, this is another “anything can happen” single game. Another disadvantage is it puts mileage on our players if the league holds to typical Wed – Sat – Wed first week/through semi-finals of playoff schedule (I’ll assume Vermes will not go too much to depth for these games). SKC would have 180-210 mins under them in the previous 7 days going into the road game semi-final series decider on day 8 (vs the opponent’s 90 mins of mileage). If SKC finishes in third or fourth in West I’m going to place 25% chance of SKC reaching MLS Cup .

3. Get a bye as the #2 seed. Much better. I'd be very happy with this seeding for SKC in 2017, especially after 3 seasons as the road wildcard team. As # 2 seed in West, I weight this as 45% chance of SKC reaching MLS Cup.

4. Win Western Conference and get #1 seed. Bonus points for SKC if we can achieve this. Having the last 90 mins plus added extra time, plus possible shootout at home (in both Conference Semi-Final and Finals) – is a HUGE advantage. With SKC being so strong at home, and if the Defense stays strong, this year if SKC can enter playoffs as West Conference champions - I’ll give SKC 65% odds of reaching MLS Cup .

5. Winning the MLS Cup Final would be greatly enhanced if SKC were to host it. However:

• TOR is going to win Supporters Shield to host MLS Cup, and is on pace for 68 points (SKC can only get 67 even with improbable winning out from here).
• Thus KC only hosts the cup if one of NYCFC, CHI, NYRB knocks off TOR in the playoffs to represent the East, and SKC finishes with a better record than that team.
  • TOR just clobbered CHI @ CHI, and will almost certainly do so in playoffs - so CHI won’t be someone SKC will face in MLS Cup. CHI have +1 point and one game in hand over SKC as of right now anyways.
  • NYCFC has +3 points and 2 games in hand over SKC, easy tiebreaker advantage (only 4 ties / more wins), with a home game vs SKC soon. If SKC doesn’t beat NYCFC at home, they have no realistic chance of finishing higher than NYCFC (and slim chance even if SKC do pull off that win)
  • NYRB is -2 points but also 2 games in hand over SKC.
• So, barring a regular season collapse by one of the teams not named TOR, coupled with a miracle playoff run by that same team to beat TOR (in TOR, where TOR has not lost this year) to represent the East, SKC will be playing MLS Cup on the road, if they make it that far.

**I assume SKC loses tiebreaker to EVERY other team. That is because our 10 ties lead the league, 2 more than any other contender (3+ more ties over all but DAL and un-catchable TOR) and if two teams have even points, wins are the first tiebreaker. It is highly improbable someone will end up even in points with SKC, yet have the same amount of ties (where SKC will likely win on Goal Differential)

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SKC SCHEDULE: (4 home, 5 away)

Next up is a brutal 3 game road trip.

@ Houston – who are undefeated at home

@ NYCFC – during National Team WCQ, so probably missing Besler (given other US CB ahead of Besler on US depth chart recently injured), and possibly Zusi as backup to recovering Yedlin.

@ Columbus – best chance for SKC, but this is a hungry team trying to hang on to a playoff spot.

3 points from the road trip would be a good result. SKC has to beat NYCFC if we want even a glimmer of a chance to finish above them for MLS Cup hosting rights

Then a 3 game home stand, however:

vs New England – 3 days before US Open Cup Final, Vermes will rest key starters for the Final

vs LA Galaxy – 3 days after US Open Cup Final. LA is second best team in MLS on the road, one of two teams that do NOT have a losing record. LA will also be playing on 3 days rest, and the SKC game will be the second of 3 on a 7 day road trip.

vs VAN

I expect 4 points from this home stand. A win, a tie and our first, unexpected home loss, sandwiched around a US Open Cup win.

@ MIN – could be a win on paper, but that’s what we thought earlier in season when we went to MIN and lost.

vs HOU – will be a battle, but HOU is so bad on the road all season long.

@RSL – sure RSL is not top tier, but they hate us, drew us at Rio Tinto earlier this year, and will have nothing else to play for but pride and jobs. Expect lots of overly aggressive leg breaking tackles from RSL.

5 points from the last stretch is doable (and necessary).

SKC could finish at 52 points and third place. (12 more points than current, with 8 games left)

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COMPETITOR'S SCHEDULE (as of Aug 19)

Seattle (37 pts, -3 pts to SKC, 1 game in hand). 6 Home games, 4 Road games remaining. Hottest team in the West, and arguably in the league over the last 6 weeks. Analysis:

1 home game vs MIN today, whom they crushed 4-0 on the road 2 weeks ago. Easy win

1 Home game against weakling LA Galaxy. (How good does it feel to say “weakling LA Galaxy”?) Although LA is better on the road, and have usually played Seattle strong.

2 road games against cellar dweller’s RSL and PHI (win x2)

1 home game vs archrivals Portland

2 games home/away against FC Dallas (these are key to shaping the West seeding)

2 games home/away against VAN

1 Last game at home vs cellar dweller COL. (Seattle will have likely won the West by this point, and these points are just for overkill/Cup hosting placement)

Seattle could very realistically get 21 of their remaining 30 points.

PROGNOSIS – Seattle has the easiest road and will win the West, especially given tiebreaker. I expect Seattle could finish at 58+ points (First), and run away with the West.

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Dallas (35 pts, -5 pts to SKC, 2 games in hand). 5 home games, 6 road games remaining. In a late season swoon (again)

5 Home Games: HOU, NYRB , SEA (ruh oh), COL (easy win), LAG (season finale). = 10 pts

6 Road Games: @CLB, @ ATL (in new stadium = loss), @ MIN, @ORL , @ COL, @SEA (w/ 2 weeks rest). = 7 pts

Dallas could finish at 52 points (Second place, DAL wins tiebreaker over SKC)

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Houston (37 pts, - 3 pts to SKC) 5 Home Games, 4 road games remaining. The most bi-polar team in the league. Wins almost everything at home, loses almost everything on the road.

5 Home Games: SKC (tough game), COL (easy peasy), LAG (might be a fight, but will win), MIN (another annihilation win), CHI (this will be the most interesting one.) 4 wins, 1 tie = 13 points

4 Road Games: @ DAL, @Quakes, @ NYCFC, @ SKC (critical). 1 tie = 1 point

Houston could finish at 51 points. (Fourth)

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Portland (37 pts, -3 pts to SKC, 1 more game played). 4 Home games, 4 Road games

4 Home Games: COL, ORL, DCU, VAN. Looks like at least 2 comfortable wins there. Last two home games are to finish the season at home. Call it 10 points

4 Road Games: @SEA, @NYCFC, @RSL, @SJ. Portland could conjure up 2-3 points from this.

Portland could finish at 49-50 points. (Fifth)

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Vancouver (34 pts, -6 to SKC, 2 games in hand). 6 home games, 5 road games remaining. 4 of last 5 games on the road.

6 Home Games: SEA, RSL, MIN, CLB, (3rd home game in 7 days), COL, SJ. Will give them 12 points at home

5 Road Games: @ORL, @ SEA, @SKC, @nyrb, @POR. This is a brutal stretch to end the season as the only break in the last 4 is a SJ home game before the @POR finale. Call it 3 points

Vancouver could finish at 49 points. (Sixth, would have tiebreaker over Portland though)

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San Jose (33 pts, -7 to SKC). 4 home games, 5 away. Really tough at home

Home Games: HOU, CHI, POR, MIN. 8 points

Road Games: @RSL, @LA, @TOR, @DCU, @VAN. 4 points?

San Jose could finish at 45 points (out of playoffs)

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Every point is of course crucial for SKC to get. But this hypothetical remaining schedule analysis shows how close it really can be finishing anywhere between second to sixth place in the West, with my prediction of only 3 pts separating the 5 final playoff positions.

 

Actually never seen this site before (would have saved me a lot of research too) - so I appreciate the new bookmark for my browser