The Off-Year & Special Elections Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, Mar 1, 2017.

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  1. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    He was in a bind, he was way behind, he was looking to make a deal.
     
  2. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    And now I have The Devil went down to Georgia running through my head.
     
  3. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Polling continue to show a tossup in Georgia. Which theoretically is a good thing for Ossoff, as the polls undershot his numbers by about 3 points in the primary.

    In close races, you tend to want to go with the enthusiasm as a tiebreaker. We'll see how well that holds up.

    One thing in the R favor is that Georgia law prohibits any new voter registrants between the primary and the runoff, as they consider it to be the same election.
     
  4. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    So yea, a judge just forced voter registration open through May 30th

    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...orgia-to-extend-voter-registration-for-runoff

    With the Dem base all in a tizzy (especially after today), this could potentially swing it for Ossoff.
     
    Boloni86 repped this.
  5. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Antonio Sabato Jr. Is running for the House in Cali as a GOP. He said last summer that we've had a Muslim president for 7 1/2 years, that he didn't think Obama is Christian.
     
  6. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Looking at his recent resume, I think for this guy it might really be about economic anxiety.
     
  7. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    D+7 district. In California. This is just a sideshow.
     
  8. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Dr. Wankler, Gamecock14 and Boloni86 repped this.
  9. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/17/montana-special-election-238523

    GOP outside group is funneling money into Montana.

    Let's be clear here, Quist is going to lose.

    What's important is the margin.

    Zinke won the race by 16. Trump won by 20.

    If Dems lose by 10, that's pretty good.

    If Dems lose by single digits, that's great.

    If Dems lose in a toss up, they're ecstatic.

    If Dems win, then I don't even know how to translate that, because it would indicate a 15+ swing. Which would net the Dems something like 100+ seats in the midterm.

    If they can get a 5-8 point swing next November, they have a real shot of winning the House.
     
  10. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    Anecdotally it seems like Dems are licking their chops. There are five candidates already lined up to challenge the Republican incumbent in NY-19.
     
  11. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    In Analytics, the Mythical beast is quality leading indicators.

    I think candidate recruitment is our unicorn here. If you have Dems falling overthemselves to challenge incumbent GOPers, then you know the Dems are in a good place.
     
  12. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I guess 19 Republican candidates for President should have been a warning that the Presidency/Clinton was not a sure thing as many of us believed (all the way to election day).
     
  13. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Well, here's a little scandal in the Montana special election ...

     
    Boloni86 and sitruc repped this.
  15. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Interesting comment from an interesting source:

     
  16. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    Is it bad that my first reaction was, "well that ********s up comparative polling"?
     
  17. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  18. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    My first reaction was this is great news for Quist.
     
  19. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    That was second for me.
     
  20. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Doesn't this help his image. He is beating up those coastal elite nerds.

    I kind of meant this as a joke, but I am also kind of serious. I don't know what is allowed anymore.
     
    Boloni86, Matrim55 and ElJefe repped this.
  21. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    48 I think.

    All the polls prior to this showed a very slight ossoff lead within the error margin.

    It's a district that very much is a GOP district. It's something like the 60th most Democratic leaning GOP held seat.

    If Ossoff wins this by 7, even with the shift in that allowed Clinton to come close to Trump, that's gotta be like a 12 point advantage towards the Den in a neutral toss up, and that's probably well over 100 seats in a midterm
     
  22. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Maybe a reason why dude got bodyslammed.

     
  23. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Audio ...

     
    Gamecock14 repped this.
  24. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    My first was: in Montana, this might wrap it up for Gianforte.
     
  25. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gamecock14 repped this.

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