I started this thread because I wanted to post this: That's the new SuperPAC ad they're running against the Dem candidate to replace Tom Price in GA-6. I don't think it's even remotely close to an effective hit. The election is on April 18. If nobody gets over 50%, there's a runoff on June 20.
He is not wrong, I think many people do this. I would not be surprised if Latino votes vote for Latino sounding names downballot. I vote 3rd party or women candidate if I have no clue who is running. I probably have voted for crazy Republican women for shit like water supervisor board and shit like that.
Except is sounds nothing like Lebanese ... To me it sounds like some variant of the German name Osthoff ...
This is kind of astonishing: https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
Anything over 50%, and there's no run-off. https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia's_6th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2017
Been reading up on Ossoff's bio and to me he seems like the model candidate for where Dems need to go. Here's his bio on his website : https://electjon.com/priorities/ I still think it's a long shot considering his district is +14 GOP. If somehow he pulls it off, he'll definitely get his national 15 minutes of fame.
So that first round of anti Ossoff ads were clearly directed at his immaturity, which was obviously a stupid angle that failed miserably. But now they're going after the old winning formula. This new ad is focused on Nancy Pelosi and her fundraising apparatus. This unfortunately will resonate in that district, as it does in hundreds of other districts in the country.
Just going by national patterns. I don't think the GOP would spend $65 million in one mid term cycle using this Pelosi angle if they didn't think it was getting them a good return. Either way, that's probably a moot point for this Georgia district. It leans so red that if Ossoff loses, it'll be simply because there's a lot more GOP votes in that district. What I found interesting is simply that the GOP is using this angle .... again.
If you live in Georgia's 6th, Alyssa Milano will come pick you up and give you a ride so you can vote early ... Georgia's 6th, early voting starts TODAY! @Alyssa_Milano and I are taking Yvonne right now. Did you think we were kidding? #FlipThe6th pic.twitter.com/DhoBYQwD71— Christopher Gorham (@ChrisGorham) March 27, 2017 This is cute, but I worry about people getting their hopes up. The district is +14 Republican. If anything I expect those reliable GOP voters to double down in order to spite all the outside attention from liberals. I'm ready to be surprised though, so keep driving Alyssa
Looks like the GOP is scrambling right now. There's even a sliver of hope that this doesn't even get to a runoff. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703 I'm still in the 'I'll believe it when I see it' camp. Bottom line is that this district just has a lot more registered Republicans, and that's a big uphill climb. But so far the early voting is reassuring ...
Here's another special election for Mike Pompeo's seat in Kansas that he left to lead Trump's CIA. It hasn't gotten as much attention because Pompeo won his race by 31% and it's just a deep red district. But the GOP has gotten worried enough about this race that they've started spending money and running ads. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kansas-special-election-congress_us_58e6ac26e4b0ace57cc0b43a? The surging Democrat in this race is James Thompson, a lawyer and Army veteran. Apparently he's running more against Brownback than Trump. The Republican is a state treasurer running on fiscal responsibility. Of course the Democrat will lose. But early voting and absentee voting seems to suggest that this might come down to single digits. If that happens in a district where Pompeo won by 31% and Trump won by 27%, it should send a message to a lot of GOP representatives who assume they can hide in their safe districts.
This actually might be close in something that hasn't been close for a while. Well, wow. It appears Thompson won the EV/AV in Sedgwick 61%-36%, while the turnout was 42% Reg Dems, 44% Reg GOPs. #KS04— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) April 12, 2017
Too close to call with 60% reporting. The Republican is up 2% or about 1,500 votes. That's even closer than I thought. I would have been blown away by 5-10% loss. Remember Pompeo won here by 31%. Granted, this Republican candidate doesn't have the advantage of incumbency. But still. If a Democrat can make up 30% in this red district, it's not unreasonable to think they can make up 10% in other places. That kind of Democratic energy will very much put the House in play for 2018.
So who won in ATL and Kansas? Did the GOP get to keep both seats? I think there is another special election in Maryland, but I can't remember.
GOP held on to Kansas. The Georgia election is on April 18th. Montana's election for Zinke's vacant seat is on May 25th. South Carolina election for Mulvaney's vacant seat is on June 20th. In addition to that there are two governor elections in Virginia and New Jersey. And there's some additional state level elections for a variety of reasons.
The interesting part of the GA-6 election will be how people vote Handel (R) vs Gray (R). Handel has branded herself as a "conservative" more than Republican while Gray is basically running as Trump's guy. Trump barely won the district over Hillary, which is surprising when compared to Romney, McCain, and Bush who won by 16+. I think Ossoff wins today's vote but misses the 50% by 3-4 points. He may have a chance in the runoff if Gray wins. If Handel wins, it's pretty much over. If Ossoff gets 48-49%, that will be a major win for the Democrats, but it would not be worth the money. If he somehow wins today, 2018 is going to be wild.
Anything in the 40s should satisfy Democrates. Based on some statistical analysis that 538 did, this district is something like the 47th most democratic leaning GOP held district. Dems only need 24 to flip the house - so if they're flipping Georgia 6, then you're talking about a tidal wave where Cruz would be in real danger, and Flake/Heller walking dead