The E(nd)volution of (College) Soccer

Where are you getting this info?

 

If MLS were to sign and pay all the college age players for these U19 and U21 teams, it might be able to convince enough 18-21 year olds to forego a college scholarship to allow for the formation of U19 and U21 leagues with good players. But I doubt MLS is willing to do this, even if we assume it has the money to do it.

If MLS U19 and U21 leagues were formed as amateur leagues without paying the players, they would be nothing more than the current U18 teams and no threat to college soccer. The top college teams would be much better on the field and a much better deal for the players. Not many 18-21 year olds will turn down a college scholarship so they can play for nothing in a new league, even if MLS "advises" it.

 

Completely agree. Also...

If it is an amateur league and players are not paid and can attended a Junior College. They may still have eligibility to play for a few years. There is also such a small amount of academy players going into the pros even that this would be the case.

I also disagree with the assumption made above that non MLS academy teams and non academy teams hold not quality in a soccer sense. Yes the bulk of the talent is located in the MLS academies but there are numerous amounts of American based players who play in every conference in Division 1 who didn't play for a MLS Academy or academy at all. Look at team like VA Tech who was very good last year. They have a number of non academy players on their roster. I know at least one was mentioned in the Top Returning Talent Thread . To say that college will be become like the high school soccer scene in America without the MLS Academies is very harsh.

 

I have also heard that MLS clubs want to have their own "DA" and have wanted one for quite a while. Further consolidate the talent pool to make sure they are getting the best players in their market.

MLS having their own separate league would have to be sanctioned and approved by US Soccer. Having an MLS DA would alienate the remaining DA clubs (and non-DA clubs) and could lead to Sunil not getting re-elected as head of US Soccer. US Soccer hasn't pulled the trigger on this as sanctioning an MLS DA would alienate 75% of the DA clubs, many of whom are powerful and have been around for a lot longer than the MLS clubs.

 

Travel would be pretty brutal and would likely require all academy teams to also have a school component, no?

 

Why is NCAA Ice Hockey the only sport that allows a 3-4 year gap and players can still have 4 years of collegiate eligibility after playing junior hockey? What soccer coach wouldn't want to start coaching a 21 year old freshmen?

 

It happens in soccer too. A lot could depend on the "contracts" the player was on abroad. It's mostly with international players that have signed youth contracts (or whatever they could be called).

 

Isn't USL already this in concept (http://www.uslsoccer.com/teams). There's no need to call it MLS/DA and have the constraints of USSDA.

The current DA focus is on the younger side anyways. There's nothing U19/!8 and mostly made up from younger U18s.

Makes sense to have MLS only league and USL is mostly that...

 

What?

There are 72 U18/19 DA clubs. Then, you also have 76 U16/17 clubs. Of these, 20 (each age group) come from MLS. That's 33% of DAs are MLS affiliated. At U15, the percentage drops to 25%.

 

The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.
- NCAA soccer

 

It will never die.

It will, most likely, continue to become less and less relevant.

Just look at the USMNT and the shrinking number of college players on it.

Just look at MLS rosters. 10 years ago they college players were a much greater percentage of the average MLS roster. 20 years ago even moreso.

And in terms of actually playing and consistently contributing, it's shrinking. Look at how few rookies are making an impact this year.

And, of course, for those who are good enough for the above, very few will play all four years they are eligible to do so.

The reality is there are more pro teams paying viable salaries in American and Canadian soccer than ever.

Leagues are growing. Rosters are expanding. Cities are clamoring and competing to get teams. And those teams will provide alternatives to college soccer for 18-22 year old players. And give them more games and compensate them and maybe (in MLS' case) pay for free tuition, something very few players in college soccer get.

Just for kicks, make a mock USMNT roster for the 2022 World Cup. Add up the years played of college soccer. Let us know how many seasons of college soccer they played. I bet it's not very much.

There will always be exceptions. Kids like Jordan Morris who want to get a Stanford experience and finish most of their coursework before going pro. And there will always be overlooked late-bloomer kids like Geoff Cameron, who blossom at 23 or kids from small towns or impoverished backgrounds who use college soccer as a means to be discovered like Miguel Ibarra. And there will always be (more and more) talented foreign kids who come here for education and to continue their playing careers and end up being good enough for MLS (or more) like Dom Dwyer and Julian Gressell.

But more and more, they will be the outliers.

College soccer will always exist. But it will just be less relevant. And it's already not that relevant (in terms of the sporting landscape and soccer development).

 

College soccer has been improving since MLS started. Soccer is more popular than ever in the U.S., and we're seeing more and more good players, better facilities, better weight programs and trainers, more media attention etc. The pro game so far has elevated college soccer, and I foresee that continuing.

Sandon undoubtedly is right that college soccer will be less relevant to the pro game over time. But similar to college baseball, college soccer should continue improving despite minor league options.

 

Yes and no.

I think most would agree that the supporting-cast players in college soccer are better than ever and will likely continue to get better. Players 6-16 have improved the past two decades.

But the elite players in college soccer aren't nearly as good as they used to be because the elite players rarely play college soccer and, if they do, only do it for a year or two. The top players at the top programs are now pros when they would have been juniors or seniors in previous eras. And most of them never even matriculate.

Case in point, Cam Lindley. A really good player who couldn't even get a sniff of the US U20 team for games that counted. A decade ago, it's highly unlikely the top freshman in college soccer (which is what Lindley was a year ago), wouldn't make the U20 team.

 

8 of the 13 players that played in the Gold Cup Championship were college players. 7 of the 13 to earn a point vs. Mexico in qualification were college players. I still think college soccer is far from being an outlier ... if you are saying that the number of "four year" players will continue to be reduced, I'll agree with that. The MLS changed their foreign player allotment and DP pool so of course there will be less college players and less Americans as a whole.

 

From a article about a preseason interview with Penn State head coach Bob Warming:

"The emergence of Major League Soccer youth academies has led to elite American talent forgoing college eligibility to sign homegrown contracts in MLS. Consequently, Warming, a two-time NCAA coach of the year, has had to change his recruiting philosophy.

Warming has established recruiting pipelines in both Canada and the United Kingdom. This year’s roster includes three Canadians and four players from the U.K.

'We’ve gone a little more international than we ever have before, really, in my whole career,' Warming said on August 1."

From: http://www.collegian.psu.edu/sports...cle_574ad3f6-7bb1-11e7-9682-2bca99a4a314.html

 

That makes sense but how many players are we actually talking about per year who are opting out of college? The Philadelphia Union graduated something like 14 players this year and all of them are going to college. Every top college program is seemingly filled with MLS academy grads.

 

MLS, NASL, and USL aren't picking up American talent. This year again, set the highest amount of internationals playing in MLS during the opening game. It's trickling down to colleges too.

Until American soccer understands we HAVE to provide for Americans, we'll continue to see higher percentages of internationals fill rosters. Coaches, owners, fans, everyone wants to win now. It hinders the development of thousands/millions of players. Opportunities are missed. All of this affects the national team player pool. Look at all the national teams that have made radical moves upward in the FIFA World Rankings (not 100% legitimate, but best way to "critique" all national teams). Those countries that have made dramatic moves all put extreme focus on player identification, increase size of player pool, and strict focus on domestic players playing at highest levels they can.

 

Agreed- same with most MLS (and definitely non-MLS academy) programs. Maybe the Penn State coach was more worried about a kid not staying for four years, which is a valid concern. Almost every MLS academy player still hopes to play pro soccer and would leave early to sign a homegrown deal if presented with one. Jordan Morris is the exception (and, heck, it was Stanford). Every MLS academy kid is hoping to start as a freshman and make an impact to get the eye of the pro scouts from their MLS side. Some kids just aren't ready for the Pros, either physically or mentally and until the MLS teams really make an investment like they do in Europe (I think some of these USL "II" sides are a step in the right direction), college is going to be a major part of the US system.

 

It has to be, unless/until there is a valid "other" option.

Right now, there are 72 DAs at the highest age group. There are roughly 65 professional soccer teams in the US. There simply isn't enough opportunities for American youth soccer players to matriculate into the professional game EVEN if they were "ready." Those players still trying to chase the dream have to play somewhere. The current American soccer landscape doesn't provide many opportunities for development past 18 years old -- a limited college season and few opportunities with a pro side. That's it.

If there are 18 kids per age group completing their last year of DA, that's 1296 players at age of 18 looking for a place to play. This number doesn't include the amount of kids not in a DA. It's a massive amount of players that are weeded out simply because there are few opportunities -- and they are also limited by financial means if they cannot afford college and college athletics.

This is what I try to say in discussions with people saying kids need to bypass college or go abroad. It's just not easy for an American to find a spot in the US soccer landscape as they try to become pros.

 

My two cents is that NCAA Soccer will have the same development role as NCAA hockey has with the NHL.

Based in Canada I know that most future NHL players despite not being drafted till 18 are identified as future NHL'ers at 15-16. I'd say the top 100 U16 have about 80% record when looking at the draft two years later.

Of my top 100 NCAA D1 players for 2017 - 47 are attached to an MLS Academy, 15 from non-MLS USSDA clubs, and 24 non-American (19 of them i had academy data on them from home country)

Which leaves 14 players on my list who had no real academy experience before they attended NCAA names such as Danny Musovski (NEV HS player of the year), Mauro Cichero (OK HS player of the year), Timmy Mueller (Idaho HS player of the Year). Which just tells me that if those states had USSDA programs those players would be in them.

So like hockey and probably all sports soccer development is at 16 and not 18-22.

An added issue now it is a detriment for players to go to NCAA they be better off not going to school and playing with a USL side since the players exposure at USL is much greater which can lead to future opportunities in US but also in leagues around the World as all the players actions in USL are scouted. When pushing a college players your basically pushing an unknown and with the ways scouting and information has advanced no club will give a fair share to an unknown player.

That being said there are still diamonds in the rough regarding NCAA and a smart club can use this to its advantage also the opportunity for an education is better then being a lower league player in most countries. So I do feel the quality of foreign players in NCAA especially from places like Germany and Ghana are strong and I take them over many players currently now in MLS.

I imagine soccer will still be a followed college event just like hockey although I can't see it keeping its place in US soccer development. Unless the US soccer pyramid grows drastically and even then you probably need pro/rel for these players to get real opportunities to show they are capable of playing in the top division of US Soccer.

 

Here's a breakdown of the 48 players Arena has used this year, by how much college soccer they played.
No college – 19 (Acosta, Agudelo, Altidore, Arriola, Beasley, Bradley, Brooks, Garza, Hamid, Howard, F. Johnson, Jones, Lichaj, Lletget, Miazga, Pulisic, Saieff, Villafana, Wood)

1 year of college – 1 (Corona)

2 years of college – 8 (Feilhaber, Guzan, Marshall, McCarty, Roldan, Rowe, Yedlin, Zimmerman)

3 years of college – 9 (Bingham, Dempsey, Dwyer, Gonzalez, Kljestan, Morris, Nagbe, Rimando, Zardes)

4 years of college – 11 (Bedoya, Besler, Birnbaum, Cameron, Evans, Hedges, Morrow, Pontius, Ream, Robles, Zusi)

At first glance, a lot of players who played 3 or 4 years of college soccer. But most of the 4-year guys are either in their 30s or turn 30 later this year. As the team skews younger, the number of college players shrinks and the number of seasons they played college soccer shrinks, too.

Here are the 4-year college players who have been capped by the senior team since the end of the 2014 WC, with their current ages.

Vincent – 23
Birnbaum - 26
Hedges - 27
Finlay – 27
Ibarra - 27
Sapong – 28
Morrow – 29
Ream - 29
Besler - 30
Bedoya - 30
Pontius - 30
Zusi – 31
Evans - 32
Cameron – 32
Robles – 33
Wondolowski – 34
Gordon - 35

Now, here's a realistic potential XI for the US in 2022:

Horvath
Farfan-Brooks-EPB-Yedlin
Saieff-Acosta-Pulisic-Arriola
Wood-Sargent

All under 30, most already capped by the USMNT. One college player who played two seasons of college soccer.

The most realistic chance for a four-year player in 2022 will probably be Brandon Vincent, though undoubtedly others will emerge. But Vincent plays a notorious trouble spot position and is playing it well for a good MLS team and will be 28 in the middle of November, 2022.

Others like Matt Polster, Fatai Alashe, Keegan Rosenberry, Nick Lima or someone still in school like Tomas Hilliard-Arce or Timmy Mueller might blow up and contend for a spot. But with all the young American pros in Europe, Mexico and MLS who didn't play college soccer or left early, the odds are against it.

Plenty of others who played fewer than 4 seasons of college soccer will likely factor in 2022, too. Sean Johnson, David Bingham and Zak Steffen should be in contention in goal. Preston Zimmerman will contend at CB, and someone like Marlon Hairston should get a shot at FB. Cristian Roldan, Jack Harrison (assuming he is naturalized in time), Kelyn Rowe and Tommy Thompson should get a look in midfield and, of course, Jordan Morris at forward. It's not like there will be no ex-college players in contention in the next World Cup cycle.

There just won't be very many, especially compared to the past 30 years.

 

With respect.

You don't have a clue who will be on the team in 2022.

The average pro career is 8 years and most every player you named will exceed that average by 2022.

 

That's because the players who make the World Cup teams tend to be the type that exceed averages.