The Containment Unit: The YA League Comparison Discussion

Discussion in 'Yanks Abroad' started by Testudo, Sep 21, 2014.

  1. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    One of the basic problems with comparing leagues is what approach is used to establish league strength:

    1. Top-club approach: The league is ranked as a range, with a league ranked about other based on a best-club comparison. Thus, the Bundesliga is above the Premiership because right now no English club seems able to challenge Bayern.

    2. Median strength approach: The league is evaluated considering the average strength of all clubs, or a large sub-set of them. One could posit the Premiership is stronger than the Bundesliga, since in the Premiership we have 4-5 teams fighting to win it, while the BuLi is just Bayern clearly atop.

    3. International competition result: based on how the teams do in continental/world competitions. With no Premiership team making it past R16 in last Champions, and two of them eliminated by French clubs, one could argue that Ligue 1 had surpassed the EPL at that point.

    Now, using ranges it's the only way to go. Also, there are extraneous factors like "mística copera" (clubs used to having deep runs in continental cups): if, say, Argentina classify Boca, River, Estudiantes, Independiente, the Primera Divisions Argentina is likely to do much better than if the qualified teams were Huracan, San Lorenzo, Racing and Newell's.

    Why? Because the first four are "mística copera" teams, that even if not in reality stronger than the others, are used to making deep runs and even winning the Libertadores.

    In Europe, an equivalent analogy would be having AC Milan, Inter & Juve make group from Italy, which would be much better for Serie A than if it's Palermo, Roma and Sampdoria who do. It doesn't mean that in the former Serie A is stronger, just that they sent clubs that know how to make deep runs in the competition.
     
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  2. cpwilson80

    cpwilson80 Member+

    Mar 20, 2001
    Boston
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think so, and I'd add Dooley, Kirovski, Mason, and Wagner to players who had connections to both countries.

    The next wave of players included Hejduk, Sanneh, Cherundolo, Donovan, Berhalter, Mathis, and Gibbs.

    Keller ultimately made his way to Gladbach, and Bradley, Feilhaber, Casey, Buddle, Cooper, Twellman were part of the next wave.

    What we see now is increased competition from MLS as a destination. 10 years ago, someone like Omar Gonzalez - who trialed at Nurnburg - would have left the league without hesitation. Now, with DP spots and retention funds, players have more financial incentive to stay here.
     
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  3. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The gap between the top and the bottom makes it very, very hard to compare to MLS. Just two entirely different set-ups.
     
  4. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    What about in regard to salaries and talent? Why do we never see any Portuguese Liga interest in MLS clubs
     
  5. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    Well, they took Adu to Benfica...
     
  6. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009

    Was that due to his MLS performances? I recall he did well in the U20 tournament that year that helped
     
  7. If...and it is a big if, as I havenot heared anything anymore about it, Steve is Feyenoorder next season, he will learn defending the proper way as this article explains. This is an interesting article with some interesting stats:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...lla-should-not-sell-world-cup-star-ron-vlaar/

    The Netherlands was the best defensive team at the World Cup. In four matches against powerhouses Spain, Chile, Argentina and Brazil, the Dutch conceded just one goal. The key to the Dutch defense was its three-man back line, anchored by Aston Villa’s Ron Vlaar. A World Cup performance like Vlaar’s inevitably draws suitors from larger teams. So far, Villa has rebuffed these advances and manager Paul Lambert has stated that Vlaar is not for sale. The numbers suggest that the Birmingham side would do well to hold the line and fight to keep its center back.

    Aston Villa bought Vlaar from Feyenoord in the Dutch Eredivisie two summers ago, and on the face of things the results have been unimpressive. The club barely escaped relegation in 2012-13, and was still in danger of going down relatively late in the 2013-14 season as well. Villa conceded 130 goals in the two seasons. While Vlaar anchored a great Netherlands defense at the World Cup, he has not been able to lift his club side above mediocrity.

    A closer look at the numbers, however, demonstrates Vlaar’s importance to Aston Villa. He has missed 17 matches in the past two seasons, and Villa conceded 34 goals in those matches, an average of two per match. In the 59 games he did play, Villa conceded 96, or about 1.6 goals per match. We see a similar effect in expected goals per match as well, so this is not just a fluke of conversion rates. Villa gave up more and better scoring opportunities in the matches that Vlaar missed.

    This was also not just a function of opponent quality. I adjusted each result for quality of opposition, based on the team’s average expected goals output and whether or not the match was a home game. The results are even more striking. Aston Villa played roughly league average defense with Vlaar in the lineup, and they were utterly awful without him. The following chart shows the xGA+ rating for Aston Villa with and without their key center back. A 120 xGA+ rating would mean the team conceded about 20 percent more xG than would be predicted given the quality of opposition. Lower is better.

    [​IMG]
    Now, plus-minus statistics like this are never determinative. But this study is at least indicative that Villa have played better with Vlaar in the lineup. The individual statistics of Aston Villa center backs also point toward Vlaar’s superiority.

    In particular, Vlaar is the strongest passer Villa has. He completes more passes than any of the other three center backs who have played with him in the past two years. And this is not simply a function of Vlaar choosing to play shorter passes, as he also completes more long passes than the other Villa center backs. He has the second most successful tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes, and Chris Herd who leads him in this statistic only played about 800 minutes at CB.

    [​IMG]
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    Perhaps the most telling statistic might be clearances. The other CBs just clear the ball much more often. Vlaar’s lack of clearances may point to his quality. When Vlaar is in the back line, Villa more rarely found itself pushed back and in need of a last-second clearance. Further, with Vlaar’s superior passing ability, he could collect the ball and start possession, rather than clearing the ball and risking another attack.

    It is not easy for a team that pays lower wages to withstand a bigger club’s advance for one of its players. But if Aston Villa loses Ron Vlaar, the statistics suggest it could be another relegation fight, and this one Villa might not win.

    All data provided by Opta unless otherwise noted.

    Michael Caley writes for Cartilage Free Captain, where he analyzes fancy soccer statistics and bemoans Tottenham Hotspur’s most recent failures. You can follow him on twitter at @MC_of_A. My full World Cup projections and methodology can be found at SB Nation.
     
  8. sidefootsitter

    sidefootsitter Member+

    Oct 14, 2004
    The reason the Dutch defense was so stingy in WC'14 was because van Gaal usually kept six players back. When he had Robben and van Persie on top it worked well enough to get the Netherlands to the PK's. When he did the same with Man City, it only bored people.

    As to Vlaar being better than most Villa defenders, it's one of those "one eyed men" things.
     
  9. Manchester United thought otherwise than you sidefooter, but unfortunately Ron's knee injury got in the way of the transfer:

    http://talksport.com/football/man-u...lds-best-defenders-says-former-villa-teammate
    Football
    Man United target Ron Vlaar among world's best defenders, says former Villa teammate

    Ron Vlaar

    By Alex Varney - @lexvarney

    Tuesday, June 9, 2015


    Darren Bent believes Manchester United target Ron Vlaar is one of the best centre-backs in the world.

    Vlaar is out of contract at Villa Park and looks unlikely to sign a new deal after claiming he has the ability to “go a step higher”.


    Bent believes that statement is disrespectful to the Midlands club, but admits the 30-year-old Netherlands international has the talent to play for a European giant so long as he can remain fully fit.

    The former Villa striker told the Alan Brazil Sports Breakfast: "He has had a frustrating year with injures, picking up little niggles here and there, but as people saw at the [2014] World Cup, when he is on top form he is one of the best defenders in the world.

    "He is solid, he is quick, he has got everything to be a top defender.

    "It is a bit disrespectful to say he is bigger than Villa, because Villa is a big club, but it his decision and he has got all the attributes to be one of the best centre-backs in the world."

    The last sentence of the first article I posted, was pointing at the interest of ManUnited.

     
  10. ManUnited thought otherwise than you Sidefooter:
    Unfortunately for him Ron's knee injury got in the way of the transfer:

    Football
    Man United target Ron Vlaar among world's best defenders, says former Villa teammate

    Ron Vlaar

    By Alex Varney - @lexvarney

    Tuesday, June 9, 2015


    Darren Bent believes Manchester United target Ron Vlaar is one of the best centre-backs in the world.

    Vlaar is out of contract at Villa Park and looks unlikely to sign a new deal after claiming he has the ability to “go a step higher”.

    Bent believes that statement is disrespectful to the Midlands club, but admits the 30-year-old Netherlands international has the talent to play for a European giant so long as he can remain fully fit.

    The former Villa striker told the Alan Brazil Sports Breakfast: "He has had a frustrating year with injures, picking up little niggles here and there, but as people saw at the [2014] World Cup, when he is on top form he is one of the best defenders in the world.

    "He is solid, he is quick, he has got everything to be a top defender.

    "It is a bit disrespectful to say he is bigger than Villa, because Villa is a big club, but it his decision and he has got all the attributes to be one of the best centre-backs in the world."
     
  11. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    Darren Bent? Haven't heard about him in years. Seems to score more with his wife than he did in the PL. (besides that 1 season with Sunderland)
     
  12. sidefootsitter

    sidefootsitter Member+

    Oct 14, 2004
    Vlaar came to Villa when it was already circling the drain after Alex McLeish's disastrous season, during which they finished in 16th place. At that time, it also became quite obvious that Lerner was trying to cut his financial losses and severely curtailing expenses. That applied to both the managers and the roster. In other words, a top player would have never gone to Villa because its table prospects were bleak and its survival always in question.
     
  13. #388 feyenoordsoccerfan, May 27, 2016
    Last edited: May 27, 2016
    Think your reasoning is flawed, because like you the perception of Dutch defenders was meh ( a rather akward perception as in international games the Orange team hardly ever get more than two goals against them). So when Ron went to Aston Vila it was a team fitting with that perception at that time and the only opportunity to play in the EPL, what he wanted very much. The proof of his real quality came when he proved himself (see the posted article) against EPL opposition and against the best strikers in the world at the WC. So you still keep playing him down, while he was around the world praised for his WC performance (not only by the Dutch) and Manchester United wanted him after he has proven to be a world class defender on both stages. When a player proves I am wrong in my opinion about him, I gladly change it instead of stubbornly sticking to my believes.
    But if you think ManU did go after a sucking one eyed king defender that was already 29, while they have the money to go after in your opinion better and younger ones, you should apply for technical director there to manage the football matters.
     
  14. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    I think he is good enough but not outstanding. A guy Feyenoord should pick up on a free. So yeah.
     
  15. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    MLS should be doing more transfers to the Dutch league. I'm sure our guys aren't as desired by Dutch teams but I'm sure they could unravel a gem or 2 and wouldn't lowball MLS offers.
     
  16. Bruce S

    Bruce S Member+

    Sep 10, 1999
    Is MLS going out of business and I missed the memo? They are not looking to sell good players.
     
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  17. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    they can't be expecting to get much $$ for selling the terrible players
     
  18. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    They aren't going to get much money selling to Dutch teams in general.
     
  19. Yep, we want non Dutch players to be as young as possible, so we can mold them and teach them, instead of for instance spend time to make them loose aquired soccer habits that arenot good.
     
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  20. uniteo

    uniteo Member+

    Sep 2, 2000
    Rockville, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    actually that's kind of simplistic and it astounds me that so many team in Europe seem obsessed with the idea of never letting players go for free.

    First there is the value of their performance - which is the whole reason they get paid in the first place

    Then there is the cost of replacing the player which include any fee paid, the new players wages (higher if you are in a poor bargaining position by having released the best alternative) and potentially the reduced value of performance received for play.
     
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  21. jond

    jond Member+

    Sep 28, 2010
    Club:
    Levski Sofia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There's no good players MLS isn't selling.

    Any player which gets a bid of a few mil is on the next plane out.
     
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  22. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    As it should be.

    Taylor Twellman for example. Rev overvalued him and missed out on cashing in for him as his form began to drop.
     
  23. Bruce S

    Bruce S Member+

    Sep 10, 1999
    His form never dropped. He got concussed.
     
  24. Bob Morocco

    Bob Morocco Member+

    Aug 11, 2003
    Billings, MT
    Fabian Castillo.
     
  25. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Every professional player in the world is for sale, if a buying club is willing to part with stupid amounts of money. The only question is how much the player's current club is asking for.
     

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