Well, here goes. (as of 8/28/18) Eastern Conference 1. ATL. 54 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 3 Home /5 Away 9/2 at DCU 9/15 at cRapids 9/19 at SJ 9/22 v RSL 9/30 at NYRB 10/6 v NER 10/21 v CHI 10/28 at TFC 2. NYRB. 52 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 8/29 v HOU 9/1 at MTL 9/16 at DCU 9/22 v TFC 9/30 v ATL 10/6 at SJ 10/21 at PHI 10/28 v ORL 3. NYCFC. 48 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/1 at CLB 9/5 v NER 9/8 v DCU 9/22 at MTL 9/26 v CHI 9/29 at MIN 10/21 at DCU 10/28 v PHI 4. CLB. 40 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/1 v NYCFC 9/15 at FCD 9/19 at POR 9/22 v cRapids 9/29 v PHI 10/6 at MTL 10/21 at ORL 10/28 v MIN 5. PHI. 36 PTS. 25 GP. 10 GR (1 USOC). 4 Home / 5 Away 8/29 at DCU 9/1 at ORL 9/15 v MTL 9/19 at SEA 9/23 v SKC 9/26 at HOU - USOC 9/29 at CLB 10/6 v MIN 10/21 v NYRB 10/28 at NYCFC 6. MTL. 33 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 4 Home / 3 Away 9/1 v NYRB 9/15 at PHI 9/22 v NYCFC 9/29 at DCU 10/6 v CLB 10/21 v TFC 10/28 at NER 7. NER. 29 PTS. 25 GP. 9 GR. 4 Home / 5 Away 9/1 v POR 9/5 at NYCFC 9/15 at LAFC 9/22 v CHI 9/29 at TFC 10/6 at ATL 10/13 v ORL 10/18 at RSL 10/28 v MTL 8. DCU. 27 PTS. 23 GP. 11 GR. 9 Home / 2 Away 8/29 v PHI 9/2 v ATL 9/8 at NYCFC 9/12 v MIN 9/16 v NYRB 9/29 v MTL 10/7 v CHI 10/13 v FCD 10/17 v TFC 10/21 v NYCFC 10/28 at CHI 9. TFC. 27 PTS. 25 GP. 9 GR. 5 Home / 4 Away 8/29 at POR 9/1 v LAFC 9/15 v LAG 9/22 at NYRB 9/29 v NER 10/6 v VAN 10/17 at DCU 10/21 at MTL 10/28 v ATL Western Conference 1. FCD. 46 PTS. 25 GP. 9 GR. 4 Home / 5 Away 8/29 at SJ 9/1 v HOU 9/15 v CLB 9/23 at VAN 9/29 at POR 10/6 v ORL 10/13 at DCU 10/21 v SKC 10/28 at COL 2. SKC. 45 PTS. 25 GP. 9 GR. 4 Home / 5 Away 9/1 at SEA 9/8 v ORL 9/15 at SJ 9/23 at PHI 9/30 v RSL 10/6 v LAG 10/17 at VAN 10/21 at FCD 10/28 v LAFC 3. LAFC. 43 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/1 at TFC 9/15 v NER 9/22 v SJ 9/29 at CHI 10/6 at COL 10/18 v HOU 10/21 v VAN 10/28 at SKC 4. RSL. 41 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 4 Home / 3 Away 9/1 v LAG 9/15 v MIN 9/22 at ATL 9/30 at SKC 10/6 v POR 10/18 v NER 10/21 at POR 5. SEA. 38 PTS. 25 GP. 9 GR. 5 Home / 4 Away 9/1 v SKC 9/15 at VAN 9/19 v PHI 9/23 at LAG 9/29 v COL 10/8 v HOU 10/17 at ORL 10/21 at HOU 10/28 v SJ 6. LAG. 38 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 3 Home / 4 Away 9/1 at RSL 9/15 at TFC 9/23 v SEA 9/29 v VAN 10/6 at SKC 10/21 at MIN 10/28 v HOU 7 . POR. 37 PTS. 24 GP. 10 GR. 5 Home / 5 Away 8/29 v TFC 9/1 at NER 9/8 v COL 9/15 at HOU 9/19 v CLB 9/22 at MIN 9/29 v FCD 10/6 at RSL 10/21 v RSL 10/28 at VAN 8. VAN. 37 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 5 Home / 3 Away 9/1 v SJ 9/15 v SEA 9/23 v FCD 9/29 at LAG 10/6 at TFC 10/17 v SKC 10/21 at LAFC 10/28 v POR 9. MIN. 29 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/12 at DCU 9/15 at RSL 9/22 v POR 9/29 v NYCFC 10/6 at PHI 10/13 v COL 10/21 v LAG 10/28 at CLB
Given their stadium construction, DC played A LOT of road games this year. They only have 2 left all season. Thats nuts. The problem, however, is that their home schedule doesn't feature too many "easy" wins. With that said, they'll be playing six point games quite a bit while at home over the next month and a half. They're the team that could really cause havoc in the East
One kind of interesting thing is that we're the only team in MLS that doesn't play on the last day of the season. Which means we'll have extra rest if we play a wildcard round game (which seems likely).
I'm not going to do this for each team just yet, but here is how I see RSL finishing out: 9/1 v LAG (W - 44pts) 9/15 v MIN (W - 47pts) 9/22 at ATL (L - 47pts) 9/30 at SKC (L - 47pts) 10/6 v POR (D - 48pts) 10/18 v NER (W - 51pts) 10/21 at POR (L - 51pts) I think that puts us above the red line, but just barely. Likely in the 6th spot, maybe 5th if other teams struggle.
According to SportsClubStats, if we hit 51 points we've got a 17% chance of being in the 4th spot, 44% chance of being 5th, and 32% chance of being 6th. I'd be pretty thrilled if we can hit 51 points...but this strange feeling of optimism is making it seem doable based on our remaining schedule. I'm fighting that feeling. Looks like the cutoff for playoffs this year is probably going to be 48 or 49 points in the western conference.
If we make the playoffs does that makes this a good season? Are we disappointing in 5th or 6th place? How does the pool boy fiasco alter expectations? Does making the playoffs save Waibel's job? Does missing the playoffs put Petke on the hot seat? http://gph.is/2dCZ04e (I don't know how to embed a GIF )
Personal opinion, I think a home playoff game is the point where I'd change my tune on Waibel. That would be enough to show clear improvement from the past 3 years. If we finish 5th or 6th and get knocked out in the first round I don't think that's enough, and missing the playoffs should certainly be a dismissal.
Here is my expansion of this - Missing the playoffs should be the nail in Waibel's coffin and it should put Petke on a very short leash for next year - Making the 5th or 6th spot with a loss should be essentially the same thing - Waibel out with Petke on a bit longer leash - Winning the 5th or 6th spot is a weird one to me. That means we did well on the road somehow and credit for that should go to Petke. I would still not bring back Waibel, but that's just me. - Finishing 3rd or 4th would be a "successful" season in a meeting expectations kind of way. I still struggle to bring back Waibel in this scenario. The talent did about what it should. He still has the massive misses of Yura, Pool Boy, and neglecting the talent pipeline. - Finishing top 2 - Bring back Waibel. Petke under no pressure. etc.
Given how we finished the 2nd half of last season anything less than a playoff birth, even a higher seed would be a disappointment. Our 2nd half of last season PPG was crazy good. We were on par with Toronto on PPG and Toronto was being called best MLS team ever. We were the team that no one wanted to play and higher expectations for this season. Going into this season we knew or thought we had a good foundation and need a few more pieces to be a great team. We failed to deliver on this, unless something miraculously happens in next few months, and Weibel is responsible. Looking at this season, I'm not sure Petke is the coach for the future to make us a championship caliber team. But this is on Weibel as Petke was cooking with tainted ingredients (borrowing from Bill Parcells analogy as being the chef as HC). If we make a change in GM we bring in the right talent and give Petke enough leash to lead us to a great performing club or hang his job with us if not.
My opinion: - Waibel should be gone regardless of what happens. Too many big misses for me. And I would include the loss of academy players as big misses, not just Yura and Pool Boy. - Petke on a short leash if we miss the playoffs - Petke on a longer leash if we squeak into the playoffs - Petke not on the hot seat if we finish 3rd or 4th and easily make the playoffs - Our performance in the playoffs should have very little bearing on Petke's future with RSL, IMO. One random thing can push you out of the playoffs, and that's not usually the coach's fault.
For me neither Waibel or Petke look to be what RSL really needs to be a consistent, championship challenging and winning team that also cashes in on the academy investment with a pipeline of players to fill RSL and the Monarchs rosters and sell to European teams for a profit and run on sentence affordability. Of the two I think Petke could become the coach to lead RSL into future glory but I really can't see that with Waibel. Not disappointed if Waibel is done and just a little if Petke is shown the door this year regardless of where they end up. That being said any positivity that was engendered from the CRapids circus on Saturday could be oh so easily Zlatan'd out the door on Saturday.
Not a Waibel fan, personally or professionally. He should have stayed in Houston. I think Petke would be an amazing Monarchs head coach, or an assistant coach who plays an outsized role with fans/media. Well, maybe I shouldn't say "would be." He was and likely still is.
As much as we might not think highly of Petke, and to a lesser extent, Waibel; there are a good number of fan bases out there that would trade their guy for ours in a second. Petke likely isn't going to become the best coach in MLS, but he is IMO in the upper half. He can inspire guys and build the right kind of relationships with them. He is average tactically, and hopefully with more time in the role he will become better as opposed to Kries who was figured out and never adapted. With Waibel, the Yura and Pool boy misses sucked. What sucked the most was that we overpaid both in order to bring them here, and then they sucked. Until those guys, RSL had never really missed on DP level guys before that I can remember. That was pretty rare in MLS. That all being said, he hit on a lot of other guys. Rusnak, Savarino, Kreilach and M. Silva have been great starters. A couple of other guys he brought in are depth that may or may not have achieved a level hoped for. I think Waibel is an average GM. He isn't bad, but he isn't great either. If you bring him back, you are going to have an average team most of the time with some random big years and some random bad years. If you are ambitious, you look elsewhere, if you are most of the teams in MLS, you stick with him because his teams will never hit rock bottom, and will always be good enough to at least keep the fan base mostly satisfied. Now, RSL is not an average organization. DLH dropped and is dropping millions on the academy. He wants a return on that investment. We have 5 guys from the academy that are playing regularly... we lead the league in minutes played by academy kids. And even still, it feels that we are too disconnected and we are missing out on getting kids moving properly up the pipeline. Waibel has failed here. Unless he can map out to his boss how he can change in that capacity, there is no reason to keep him here. Any GM of RSL HAS to take advantage of the strengths of the organization to succeed. Sorry for being so wordy.
My .02 I went into this season expecting playoffs since I didn't think we had the midfield to be a conference championship contender. Injuries have hurt RSL and boneheaded trades by Waibel have bit us in the ass. IMO: Waibel needs to go regardless. Go get a get a competent GM/Technical Director and maybe set up a COO for the whole RSL organization. Petke is safe as I don't think he's ever been given the best set of tools to work with. Since the beginning he's had to deal with injuries and players past their prime. I'd give him a pass this year with the expectation that missing the playoffs next season is unacceptable.
(as of 9/4/18) Eastern Conference 1. NYRB. 55 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/16 at DCU 9/22 v TFC 9/30 v ATL 10/6 at SJ 10/21 at PHI 10/28 v ORL 2. ATL. 54 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 3 Home /4 Away 9/15 at cRapids 9/19 at SJ 9/22 v RSL 9/30 at NYRB 10/6 v NER 10/21 v CHI 10/28 at TFC 3. NYCFC. 48 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 4 Home / 3 Away 9/5 v NER 9/8 v DCU 9/22 at MTL 9/26 v CHI 9/29 at MIN 10/21 at DCU 10/28 v PHI 4. CLB. 43 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 3 Home / 4 Away 9/15 at FCD 9/19 at POR 9/22 v cRapids 9/29 v PHI 10/6 at MTL 10/21 at ORL 10/28 v MIN 5. PHI. 40 PTS. 27 GP. 8 GR (1 USOC). 4 Home / 3 Away 9/15 v MTL 9/19 at SEA 9/23 v SKC 9/26 at HOU - USOC 9/29 at CLB 10/6 v MIN 10/21 v NYRB 10/28 at NYCFC 6. MTL. 36 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/15 at PHI 9/22 v NYCFC 9/29 at DCU 10/6 v CLB 10/21 v TFC 10/28 at NER 7. DCU. 30 PTS. 25 GP. 9 GR. 7 Home / 2 Away 9/8 at NYCFC 9/12 v MIN 9/16 v NYRB 9/29 v MTL 10/7 v CHI 10/13 v FCD 10/17 v TFC 10/21 v NYCFC 10/28 at CHI 8. NER. 30 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 3 Home / 5 Away 9/5 at NYCFC 9/15 at LAFC 9/22 v CHI 9/29 at TFC 10/6 at ATL 10/13 v ORL 10/18 at RSL 10/28 v MTL 9. TFC. 27 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 4 Home / 3 Away 9/15 v LAG 9/22 at NYRB 9/29 v NER 10/6 v VAN 10/17 at DCU 10/21 at MTL 10/28 v ATL Western Conference 1. FCD. 49 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 3 Home / 4 Away 9/15 v CLB 9/23 at VAN 9/29 at POR 10/6 v ORL 10/13 at DCU 10/21 v SKC 10/28 at COL 2. LAFC. 46 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 4 Home / 3 Away 9/15 v NER 9/22 v SJ 9/29 at CHI 10/6 at COL 10/18 v HOU 10/21 v VAN 10/28 at SKC 3. SKC. 45 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/8 v ORL 9/15 at SJ 9/23 at PHI 9/30 v RSL 10/6 v LAG 10/17 at VAN 10/21 at FCD 10/28 v LAFC 4. RSL. 44 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/15 v MIN 9/22 at ATL 9/30 at SKC 10/6 v POR 10/18 v NER 10/21 at POR 5. SEA. 41 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/15 at VAN 9/19 v PHI 9/23 at LAG 9/29 v COL 10/8 v HOU 10/17 at ORL 10/21 at HOU 10/28 v SJ 6 . POR. 41 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/8 v COL 9/15 at HOU 9/19 v CLB 9/22 at MIN 9/29 v FCD 10/6 at RSL 10/21 v RSL 10/28 at VAN 7. VAN. 40 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 4 Home / 3 Away 9/15 v SEA 9/23 v FCD 9/29 at LAG 10/6 at TFC 10/17 v SKC 10/21 at LAFC 10/28 v POR 8. LAG. 38 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/15 at TFC 9/23 v SEA 9/29 v VAN 10/6 at SKC 10/21 at MIN 10/28 v HOU 9. MIN. 29 PTS. 26 GP. 8 GR. 4 Home / 4 Away 9/12 at DCU 9/15 at RSL 9/22 v POR 9/29 v NYCFC 10/6 at PHI 10/13 v COL 10/21 v LAG 10/28 at CLB
The two games we play against Portland on 10/6 and 10/21 could be pretty interesting. It'll be 9/30 before we're up against a potent defense, so that should give us plenty of time to overestimate our offensive abilities.
Thoughts: NYRB have already clinched a playoff spot. With all the pomp and circumstance around ATL you would think they would do it first. Granted, ATL still has a better PPG than NYRB (just barely) but I think a lot more needs to be said of what they're doing in Jersey. The next 3 games for ATL, btw, are against western conference foes. We're in the mix along with the cRapids and SJ. That's easily 7 points and, honestly, most likely 9 for them. So don't expect the hype to change at all. It is weird to me, though, that they have this stretch of scheduling this late. The 9/30 game vs NYRB is gonna be a cracker. Outside that game, ATL is favorite to pick up all 3 points in every other remaining game. I expect them to break the record set by TFC last year (69pts) against TFC on the last day. TFC dropped points this weekend that has put them all but out of the playoffs. They're 9 points back, albeit with a game in hand. Still, they're schedule isn't setup to make a run. I bet they finish 7th in the East, which is crazy. The CCL let down is real. The west is wild. FCD looks to have that top spot on lock but don't have really any gimmies on the schedule outside the last game of the season (cRapids at home) and maybe the Orlando home game. I'm just waiting for them to implode like they always do, too. LAFC continues to impress. Their road win at TFC was impressive regardless of the state of TFC. That last game v SKC is shaping up to be really important in the standings. Speaking of SKC, I expect them to rebound from the weekend loss at the Sounders. Their upcoming schedule is one they should max out on and Vermes has this weird ability to get them hot at the end of the season. I hate it. Their last 3 will shape the west, for sure. We have another must win game coming up against the Loons before we go on a brutal road trip. Any points in our remaining 3 road games will be shocking to me. We gotta max out at home to have any hope of finishing 4th or better. The Seattle run is scary. Especially since they really don't have any top teams left on the schedule. I expect the streak to end in Vancouver, but only via draw. From there? I favor them to get at least a point if not all 3 in every other game. They will jump us, guarantee it. Portland has a schedule that is much more difficult than it may look on paper. I expect them to manage it well. The double header with us will really be vital in positioning for the two clubs. For me, Vancouver has far too difficult of a schedule to jump into the playoffs. Best case scenario, I think, is they finish 6th. Just too rough and too many other good teams around them. The Galaxy are too awful on defense to be a threat, me thinks. Especially with 28 games played already and the teams they have left. I have no idea why I kept Minnesota on this...
If Seattle stays hot they could really make a run up the table. They have what looks to be the easiest schedule left. I hope they stay hot and then flame out in the playoffs. That would be fun. LA is toast. 3 points out of 6th with only 6 games left and Portland and Seattle with 8. They would have to pick up 5 wins out of the last 6 to have a shot and I only see 3 really winnable games for them left. Making the playoffs after what we saw from them Saturday would be very impressive. Minnesota really is a must for RSL if they want to make the playoffs before the last week of the season and Minnesota needs to win 7 of the last 8 to hit 50 which might not even get someone in the playoffs.
The lowest estimate I would make for the West is 50pts. But that's just to finish 6th. To finish in the top 4 it's probably going to be about 58-60pts needed. I figure: FCD finishes about 60pts LAFCD finishes about 60pts SKC finishes about 58pts SEA finishes about 59pts POR finishes about 56pts
Seattle has been on a tear. Im glad we got them early in the year rather than later. Agreed with the Minnesota game, that is a must have for the 3 points. Get that and than 3 difficult games where you are just hoping for a point.
(as of 9/17/18) Eastern Conference 1. ATL. 57 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/19 at SJ 9/22 v RSL 9/30 at NYRB 10/6 v NER 10/21 v CHI 10/28 at TFC 2. NYRB. 56 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 3 Home / 2 Away 9/22 v TFC 9/30 v ATL 10/6 at SJ 10/21 at PHI 10/28 v ORL 3. NYCFC. 49 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 2 Home / 3 Away 9/22 at MTL 9/26 v CHI 9/29 at MIN 10/21 at DCU 10/28 v PHI 4. CLB. 44 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/19 at POR 9/22 v cRapids 9/29 v PHI 10/6 at MTL 10/21 at ORL 10/28 v MIN 5. PHI. 40 PTS. 28 GP. 7 GR (1 USOC). 3 Home / 3 Away 9/19 at SEA 9/23 v SKC 9/26 at HOU - USOC 9/29 at CLB 10/6 v MIN 10/21 v NYRB 10/28 at NYCFC 6. MTL. 39 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 3 Home / 2 Away 9/22 v NYCFC 9/29 at DCU 10/6 v CLB 10/21 v TFC 10/28 at NER 7. DCU. 35 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 5 Home / 1 Away 9/29 v MTL 10/7 v CHI 10/13 v FCD 10/17 v TFC 10/21 v NYCFC 10/28 at CHI 8. NER. 34 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/22 v CHI 9/29 at TFC 10/6 at ATL 10/13 v ORL 10/18 at RSL 10/28 v MTL 9. TFC. 30 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/22 at NYRB 9/29 v NER 10/6 v VAN 10/17 at DCU 10/21 at MTL 10/28 v ATL Western Conference 1. SKC. 51 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/23 at PHI 9/30 v RSL 10/6 v LAG 10/17 at VAN 10/21 at FCD 10/28 v LAFC 2. FCD. 50 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 2 Home / 4 Away 9/23 at VAN 9/29 at POR 10/6 v ORL 10/13 at DCU 10/21 v SKC 10/28 at COL 3. LAFC. 47 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/22 v SJ 9/29 at CHI 10/6 at COL 10/18 v HOU 10/21 v VAN 10/28 at SKC 4. RSL. 45 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 2 Home / 3 Away 9/22 at ATL 9/30 at SKC 10/6 v POR 10/18 v NER 10/21 at POR 5. SEA. 44 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 4 Home / 3 Away 9/19 v PHI 9/23 at LAG 9/29 v COL 10/8 v HOU 10/17 at ORL 10/21 at HOU 10/28 v SJ 6 . POR. 44 PTS. 27 GP. 7 GR. 3 Home / 4 Away 9/15 at HOU 9/19 v CLB 9/22 at MIN 9/29 v FCD 10/6 at RSL 10/21 v RSL 10/28 at VAN 7. VAN. 40 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 3 Home / 3 Away 9/23 v FCD 9/29 at LAG 10/6 at TFC 10/17 v SKC 10/21 at LAFC 10/28 v POR 8. LAG. 38 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 3 Home / 2 Away 9/23 v SEA 9/29 v VAN 10/6 at SKC 10/21 at MIN 10/28 v HOU