The 2020 Election Mega Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, May 8, 2017.

Tags:
  1. NGV

    NGV Member+

    Sep 14, 1999
    Fortunately, there's no left-wing media source that's remotely approaches the level of social and political damage of Fox News.

    I wouldn't support candidates boycotting Fox if it was merely a partisan or ideologically biased news outlet - even one with a hard-right perspective. But Fox News isn't that, currently. It's primarly a toxic mix of state propaganda, racial demagoguery, conspiracy theory peddling, and scams targeting the elderly.

    There's a case to be made that going on Fox can be a useful way to bring a fresh perspective to people who have become accustomed to getting their news from that source - but who could benefit from other perspectives, and who might be persuaded if those perspectives were presented in a sympathetic and credible way. There's also a case to be made against doing anything to financially benefit, or bolter the perceived legitimacy of, a disreputable and deeply harmful organization. I wouldn't fault a Democratic candidate for taking either stance.
     
  2. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Good post. I agree with this part esp.
     
    MatthausSammer repped this.
  3. SpencerNY

    SpencerNY Member+

    Dec 1, 2001
    Up in the skyway
    The basket of deplorables statement worked wonders for Hillary so don’t fix what ain’t broke I guess.
     
  4. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I don't think the other polls are jokes, but I think they captured a temporary announcement bounce. The Emerson poll is closer to where I expect the race to settle on before the debates.
     
  5. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    At last I find a poll which matches my preconceived idea!

    This is pretty much the definition of cherry picking data
     
    Deadtigers, sitruc, Hayaka and 1 other person repped this.
  6. rich loc

    rich loc Member+

    Jun 17, 2007
    Club:
    Club América
    Nat'l Team:
    Tanzania

     
    totti fan repped this.
  7. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Unskew the polls!

    Unsurprisingly when we change the assumed population to include fewer likely Biden voters the gap between Biden & Bernie massively shrinks. ZOMG!!

    Where have we ever seen this logic before I wonder
     
    Deadtigers, sitruc, dapip and 1 other person repped this.
  8. totti fan

    totti fan Member+

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    This is what a poorly designed poll looks like. But best not to draw attention to it because....?
    [​IMG]
     
  9. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #2034 charlie15, May 16, 2019
    Last edited: May 16, 2019
    Totally agree as well. Warren said it well, Fox is a hate propaganda machine.
    Good article on this topic:

    Skeptics reply that Fox viewers are a lost cause to Democrats. “In 2016, only 1 percent (!) of Sanders primary voters (and 4 percent of Clinton primary voters) reported Fox as their main source of news,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted yesterday, of Warren’s decision. “It’s not like you’re forsaking all that large an audience that won’t see your message elsewhere.” Fox’s core audience is Republicans, and those Republicans tend to have hardline, pro-Trump views.

    The question “should Democrats appear on Fox?” probably doesn’t have a one-size-fits-all answer. If Democrats do choose to appear, we should encourage them to ram home an essential point: that Fox has an abnormal, corrosive relationship to democracy.\
    https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/elizabeth_warren_fox_news.php
     
    Deadtigers, sitruc and soccernutter repped this.
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You do know that old people vote in large percentages, while young people do not right?

    So any poll worth anything will have a larger representative size of older voters.
     
  11. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    It's not cherry picking data, it's making an educated guess based on previous voter behavior. This race has been defined by large bounces in polling in the first couple weeks after an announcement of intent to run before dropping back down to the mean. Every major candidate had it.
     
  12. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    soccernutter and charlie15 repped this.
  13. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Biden’s pre-announcement polling had him around the 30s and Sanders in the low/mid 20s. I wouldn't be shocked if future polling returned to within a few points of that polling once abiden’s bump wears off..
     
  14. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Biden's announcement is almost a month old now , I have not seen any wear off so far. As a matter of fact, and it seems that his lead has been growing lately.
    He is running a pretty smart and safe campaign so far and unless he badly stumbles during the debate, he will be hard to beat.
     
  15. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There haven't been a lot of polls since then and there has only been one repeat, which doesn't really show a change. *shrug* I don't disagree that he'll be hard to beat, but I'd like to see more polls before we draw a conclusion about whether his bump is or isn't wearing off.
     
  16. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    By going on Fox, no matter if any Democrat contradicts Hannity or Fox and Friends or anybody else, it is legitimizing the MO of Fox and their persistent lies, racism, and blind support of the current President (and the persistent banging on against the Mueller report and the term "fake news"). It is not one show, it is the entire network.
     
    sitruc, charlie15 and The Jitty Slitter repped this.
  17. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Regarding the Emerson poll...

    https://emersonpolling.reportablene...ack-in-the-lead-for-the-democratic-nomination

    The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,006, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of gender, age, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=604) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=402).

    The poll was an IVR, not an in-person poll.
    It also did not call cell phones (which is like to lower the number of the U40 crowd).

    Again, it is a data point, but nothing more.
     
    sitruc repped this.
  18. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fox is simply poisonous (and by extension Rupert M. and his clique ). They are actively undermining democratic norms and societies in general. No point of giving them more legitimacy.
     
    JohnR, Deadtigers and sitruc repped this.
  19. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    His son seems to want to move FoxNews more to the middle, but I don't think that will truly happen until Papa Murdock dies.
     
    Boloni86 repped this.
  20. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think that was James, who was shunted over to 21st Century Fox and isn't associated with FoxCorp since the sale of 21st Century. Lachlan is the one running FoxCorp and, from what I understand, he's just as conservative as his father, if not more so.
     
  21. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    That's true. But we have to admit that, at least in the US, the right wing media has been much more successful at it.
     
  22. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Bill de Blasio is now running for President and we are way past ridiculous on the number of candidates now. None of these people could've run in 2016? Really?!
     
    Q*bert Jones III and Deadtigers repped this.
  23. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Rangers
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I agree it's way too early to know much - i was more objecting to the Cherry pick of the Emerson poll

    There is a new Fox poll which has Biden +18

    IMO the real issue for Bernie is he already has national name recognition, but his polling seems relatively locked in.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/
     
  24. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I’m calling it now. There will not be enough voting capacity in cities, especially in POC areas, and it will be at a level we’ve never seen, and it will be an enormous scandal. Either Trump will win and the Dems will go nuts over it, or he will lose, and he will go insane complaining about judges keeping polls open late. (Blaming election officials for not having enough capacity will not be an option.)

     
    Hayaka, dapip, song219 and 1 other person repped this.
  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #2050 ceezmad, May 17, 2019
    Last edited: May 17, 2019
    State level elections matter.

    Florida has a republican governor, republican Congress (I think), so you bet there will be long lines in districts that vote Democrats in large numbers.
     
    charlie15 repped this.

Share This Page