The 2018 Table :: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Curious Quantities

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 13, 2018.

  1. Ismitje

    Ismitje Super Moderator

    Dec 30, 2000
    The Palouse
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dyvel and crazypete13 repped this.
  2. Geneva

    Geneva LA for Life

    Feb 5, 2003
    Southern Cal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just meant post it to twitter, either a link to each article, or one of those multi-part tweets. Twitter would eat this up with a spoon and a fork.
     
    BalanceUT repped this.
  3. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    On my primary twitter account, which I've had since 2009, I have never posted a single tweet. And I subscribe to nobody in my main feed. But my soccer, politics, and local lists are well curated.
     
    Geneva repped this.
  4. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Heads up, San Jose already eliminated mathematically from Supporters' Shield, as Red Bulls play City and ATL, and for both of City and ATL to be below 50, the Red Bulls have to hit at least 49 (where they'll have the tiebreaker of fewest draws with San Jose.
     
    Zamphyr, Ismitje, Knave and 1 other person repped this.
  5. Geneva

    Geneva LA for Life

    Feb 5, 2003
    Southern Cal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Twitter is an awesome news feed, using it as you do. There's the danger of getting too

    This is your niche, your chance to contribute on Twitter, and gain a wider audience for your genius. A worthy goal for all mankind. But it would spoil your no posting record. It's a dilemma.
     
  6. EvilTree

    EvilTree Member+

    Canadian S.C
    Canada
    Nov 20, 2007
    Frozen Swampland, Soviet Canuckistan
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I am ready for the Toast Jesus and all his Toasty blessings in abundance.

    All hail the Toast Jesus!
     
    BalanceUT and TOAzer repped this.
  7. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Given that the Revs only have one winnable game in their next 8 (6 on the road), the toaster in Foxboro is plugged in, turned on, and set to dark...
     
  8. EvilTree

    EvilTree Member+

    Canadian S.C
    Canada
    Nov 20, 2007
    Frozen Swampland, Soviet Canuckistan
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    TFC pretty much have to go 2 points/game for rest of season. Doable, esp if Giovinco keeps his rediscovered mojo and Jozy doesn't do anything else stupid and stays healthy.
    But TFC's weakness is at CBs. Mavinga is one of top CBs in MLS if he stays healthy and doesn't do stupid stuff. Moor is the organizer of defence, but also returning from long term injury and he's old. Zavaleta and Hagglund have taken a step back from last season and they need an organizer as CB partner in order not to screw up. I just don't see TFC defence not screwing up enough for TFC to make playoffs.

    Edit: And TFC relies on Mtl and Revs screwing up the rest of the season.
     
    crazypete13 repped this.
  9. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    I'm just glad that San Jose isn't hovering in the #7 position this year.

    Kinda refreshing for a change.
     
    Guardien repped this.
  10. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    The Toast Thread is, indeed, a high point for our species.

    Which speaks poorly of our species.
     
    BalanceUT, Sachsen, TOAzer and 1 other person repped this.
  11. JayRockers!

    JayRockers! Member+

    Aug 4, 2001
    tff.jpg

    Thx,

    Jay!
     
    Ismitje and Geneva repped this.
  12. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Wait. You want to increase the idiocy on this thread?

    Decent bet where MTL is concerned.
     
  13. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    @Geneva dreams of accomplishing the impossible!
     
    BalanceUT, Geneva and SierraSpartan repped this.
  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    #39 Knave, Aug 14, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
    Let's follow up on this disparity business. Here's the chart, using my usual measure.

    9Disparity.png
    The idea behind the chart is pretty simple. The more PPG variability the league exhibits, the greater the disparity among the teams. The less PPG variability, the greater the parity. And we don't consider expansion year teams in the calculation, because they have (historically) been predictably terrible outlier teams. (Include RSL and CHV in the 2005 calculation, and the disparity nearly doubles.)

    That's changing, however. In recent years, expansion teams have nearly all been solid performers. And that's a pretty interesting development, because it seems to suggest that @Yoshou's old Blind Squirrel Theory might be on the wane.

    That theory basically says that given talent scarcity, expansion dilutes the talent pool, making it harder for bad teams to find the proverbial good nuts. Hence, expansion decreases league parity. With a smaller league (or after contraction), however, the bad teams will be more competitive because it's easier for them to happen upon good nuts by sheer chance.

    I am positive this used to be true in MLS. You can see it in the early years. The league expanded, parity diminished. The league contracted, parity increased immediately and dramatically. Then MLS expanded again, and going into '12-'14, disparity was increasing with expansion.

    Then something weird happened in 2015, and parity increased again. Since then it has ticked up gradually, and this year it appears to be way up. (But those are early numbers and can change.)

    What's interesting to me is that the increasing disparity in recent years is not being driven by expansion teams. It's all pretty much driven by established teams who just don't compete well any longer. So I'm wondering if there's a new dynamic in play.

    First, I don't think MLS exists in an environment of talent scarcity any longer. Some of that is the fact that we are increasingly growing our own, and some of that is the fact that there's just more money in MLS to enable teams to compete effectively in the global soccer talent market.

    Second, I'm beginning to think that expansion teams have something of an advantage because they are given a blank slate and a lot of cash to spend on players. They aren't building teams with cast-offs from the expansion draft. They're building teams more and more on the open player market.

    Third, meanwhile, established teams often appear to be burdened by sheer inertia. You can only move so many rostered players, so its hard to cast off your mistakes and replace them with better options. To that extent, being established is almost something of a burden in MLS because you're susceptible to being dragged down by roster mistakes that you just can't escape efficiently.

    This is more a hypothesis than a theory. But here you go. Fodder for discussion.
     
    BalanceUT and SiberianThunderT repped this.
  15. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I'm actually amazed that SCS still has @ 11.5% non-weighted.

    One more loss and I'm gonna stop caring. As Torontonian originally from Montreal, this will create some moral ambiguities for me.

    If I think TFC has no chance at the playoffs, I start cheering for MTL (even against TFC, I believe there are 2 games left), this puts me at odds with fellow Reds fans. But I'm much more invested in having a Canadian presence in the playoffs.

    But we can still ******** up the Whitecaps tomorrow night, (I'm pretty excited it's only my second game of the year).
     
  16. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Revs have a tough stretch coming up as well. Wouldn't count TFC out yet, but the margin for error is evaporating quickly.
     
  17. Geneva

    Geneva LA for Life

    Feb 5, 2003
    Southern Cal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would post, with permission from our fearless leader. Sounds like he's not in the mood. :)
     
  18. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #43 Yoshou, Aug 14, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
    Maybe it's not that the Blind Squirrel Theory is on the wane, but that it is just that it doesn't account for all of the variables. When I came up with that theory at the end of 2010, MLS had just recently added two DP spots and TAM wasn't even a glint in Garber's eye. Teams have now figured out how powerful those additional DP spots are and the addition of TAM allows them to access additional near DP quality players. As an example of what I'm talking about, Newton's law of universal gravitation is just as valid now as it was when it was first written, it's just been superseded by Einstein's theory of general relativity which is more precise and accounts for very strong gravitational fields.

    To keep with the Blind Squirrel theme, maybe another complexity needs to be added to the Blind Squirrel Theory that accounts for "Timidity", so the new and improved General Squirrelativity is born. The field with the 70 good nuts and 30 bad nuts is still in play that teams are scurrying around snapping up Good Nuts based only on whether they are blind or not, but the addition of the two DP spots and TAM has given all of the teams access to an additional field that not only has more nuts on it, but it also has Really Good Nuts (RGN) in addition to Good Nuts (GN) and Bad Nuts (BN). However, there are also other squirrels out in that field that are bigger and meaner just waiting to rip nuts out of a smaller squirrel's hands and the nuts on the new field are freaking expensive.

    Whether a teams goes out into that field is determined by how timid they are. Teams that have a low Timidity look out at that other field and say "Holy crap! Look at those RGNs! If I can get my hands on some of those!" Even if it means a few are ripped out of their hands (RIP Paolo Hurtado in Rave Green), they are still going to be successful enough times to get some RGNs.

    Teams that have a high Timidity look out at that other field and say “Holy crap! Look at those bigger and meaner squirrels!! I'm not going to be able to get any RGN so why even try?” They prefer to stick to the existing field and just spend more on a proven nut that either they, or another team has already found than going out into the new field.

    So now instead of just having a Blind or Not Blind variable, teams also have a Timidity variable that was really always there, just everyone used to have a High Timidity. Now we have teams like DC United that are Blind with High Timidity that aren't getting as many GNs off the existing field and aren't really going out into the new field, teams like Montreal that are Blind with Low Timidity that aren't getting many GNs off the existing field and are going out into the new field, but since they are Blind, they aren't getting RGNs, teams like NYRB that are Not Blind with a High Timidity, that are getting GNs off the existing field and aren't really going out into the new field, and teams like Atlanta that a Not Blind with Low Timidity that are getting GNs off the existing field and going out in the new field and getting mostly RGNs.
     
  19. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    SJE: "What's a nut?"
     
  20. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #45 Yoshou, Aug 14, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
    Much like how General Relativity falls apart when you get into quantum mechanics and a Theory of Everything is still outside of scientists grasps, General Squirrelativity also falls apart at some point. What is needed now is someone much smarter than I to come up with a Theory of Everysquirrel that binds them all together.
     
    BalanceUT, SierraSpartan and TOAzer repped this.
  21. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean, I shared it on my ref stats account...
     
    Geneva repped this.
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I'm gonna have to come back and reread @Yoshou's post when I'm drunk in order to properly understand its nuances.

    I mean ... ok, could be. But that's a lot of nuts and squirrels.

    Also:

    [​IMG]
     
  23. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We're all a little nuts here anyway...
     
  24. lurak

    lurak Member+

    Aug 24, 2007
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    In honor of DC United, I think we should replace squirrels with raccoons.
     
  25. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Unfortunately I've heard some other supporters groups get "if I had wings of a..." get it wrong because the DC supporters say "eagle" instead of "sparrow" (the latter of which rhymes with crow and below).
     

Share This Page