PBP: The 2018 Midterms :: Election Day Thread :: Pre-Match & PBP [R]

Yeah, I think Espy is headed for about 8% defeat... Most of the reddest areas are in, but the lead is too big with current turnout.

Odd election, he picked up what he needed in a few counties, but picked up nearly nothing in others . Looks like he over-performed generic Mississippi election by about 5% when he needed to by over 8%

Edit: Media is starting to call it for Hyde-Smith, no surprise although still looks generally like a Republican under-performance... just in a state where they have a lot of room to do that.

 

She could have worn the full Klan regalia and still got elected. Disappointed, but hardly surprised.

 

First I've heard of this.

That corner of the state is...not our best.

 

NC09 is not certified by the Board in NC. Republican shenaningans in one of the counties. They may lose that one as well.

Some more details in here. Definitely sounds like something isn't adding up in #NC09. https://t.co/ogU9wXEL0t

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 30, 2018

 

It’s about absentee voting, which we know is the only way to commit election changing vote fraud. The Republican incumbent who lost the primar may also have been a victim.

 

And this jackass called Paul Ryan was talking about suspicious "harvesting of votes" in Ca where the GOP got decimated.

 

They were just shipped in from Mexico, didn’t ya hear?

 

I had a decent chat with my boss about this. He's older than me and a bit more connected to that part of the state.

He is...not shocked.

But the really interesting thing, the important thing, is that this is probably another incident of the ONLY kind of mass election fraud we ever see. It also is related to the ONLY kind of special voting the GOPs aren't worrying about restricting through legislation. Finally, it is the ONLY kind of special voting where GOPs have an advantage.

That's the slam dunk proof that this whole vote integrity issue is complete bullshit. It's 100%, precisely, not 90%, not 99%, not 99 44/100%, but 100% bullshit. It's about the GOPs responding to our changing demographics by rigging the system rather than changing their message.

 

I mean really?

So this brings another critic of absentee ballots, why not sign them and sell them on line.

Or

Why could an Union boss request their members to fill in their ballots during the union meeting.

Or

Why can't a company owner ask all employees to bring in their ballots and have a "meeting" to help them fill them out.

Obviously it is all "volunteer" and not negative consequences would come to those that do not participate.

 

These are charts of the 2 counties Harris won.

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2018/11/ncs-closest-congressional-contest-gets.html#more

This link has some graphs for how the candidates performed with different kinds of voting in different counties.

Across the counties, the Dem performed the best with provisional votes. That's expected. The GOP performed best on election day. But focus in on the 2 types of absentee votes.

The "one-stop" is presumably early voting. In a few counties there was almost no difference between those two kinds of voting. In many counties, the Dem performed noticeably better with mail in absentee votes. +9 in Anson, +7 in Mecklenburg (Charlotte) +12 Richmond.

In Union, the Dem ran TWENTY POINTS better in mail in than early voting. A significant outlier. In Bladen County, the GOP ran 5 points better in mail in than early voting.

Most of those are pretty empty counties, so perhaps it was just a matter of 1 DEM volunteer in Union working really hard, and 1 GOP volunteer in Bladen working really hard.

But it's mighty strange that the Dem ran better than in 2016 in every county except Bladen. I thought maybe Harris was actually from Bladen, which is near the coast, near Wilmington. (It's a very flat place that was really devastated by Hurricane Florence.) Wikipedia says he was born in Winston-Salem, went to Appalachian State, and lives in Charlotte, so it's the opposite; he's never lived near Bladen County.

 

I don't know if the following facts undermine or support this theory.

http://www.wfae.org/post/harris-pit...ty-absentee-mail-votes-poured-harris#stream/0

"Harris' win was powered, in part, by a surge of absentee-by-mail ballots from Bladen County, according to data from the N.C. Board of Elections. In the May primary, 22 percent of the votes cast in Bladen County in the Harris-Pittenger race were cast by absentee-by-mail, and Harris was the overwhelming winner of those ballots.

Harris won 96 percent of the 456 absentee-by-mail votes in Bladen, but won only 62 percent of all other votes in the county, according to state Board of Elections records."

96 percent. Putin is like, show-off.

This next point certainly undermines the idea that a dedicated Dem in Union County was at work.

"At 22 percent, Bladen County easily had the highest percentage of absentee-by-mail ballots in the district. Mecklenburg County was the next highest at only 1.6 percent."

First place, 22%, 2nd place, 1.6%??????

 

I'm going to make my guess here, as I read more. Check out this chart.



It looks like someone organized an effort in Bladen county to get a ton of absentee ballots out into the ecosystem, then went about collecting them. (This is illegal; it's known as harvesting. It's legal to organize to get them out, but the actual voter has to get them in.) They threw away votes for the "wrong" House candidate. They filled in the "right" House candidate if they could.

Could it have turned 900 votes? Apparently not, but under NC law, that doesn't matter. Vox says

"At the end of the day, North Carolina law allows the elections board to call for a new election if there is evidence that casts doubt on the basic fairness of the vote. The number of ballots in doubt or in question doesn’t appear to make a difference."

IANAL, so I don't know if proven cheating that was less than the margin of victory "casts doubt on the basic fairness of the vote." I can see it argued both ways.

Harris' campaign message if there's a rerun? "Yeah, I cheated, but I would have won anyway, so vote for me."

Would it surprise you to learn Harris is one of those hyper Moral Majority types? He's an actual former minister. He might be a really stupid ************************ and not have realized in the primary that his boy in Bladen was cheating. Or he might think he's ********ing Cyrus.*

*One of the defense of Trump the agnostic libertine from evangelicals is that he is serving God's purpose just like Cyrus.

 

Because all that shit is against the law. Keep that in mind...the actions cited in that article are illegal.

One woman voted illegally in Texas. She got 8 years. (You'll be unsurprised to learn she is a POC.) What should the sentence be for dozens if not hundreds of illegal votes? Ritual defenestration?

 

********ing Texas.

 

Can you dig it?

 

Bad PR would be the problem with the examples that I gave above.

I mean, me and my family could get together with our absentee ballots and debate about who should we vote for.

I was mostly thinking about the story a while ago of some factory owner (or business owner) that said he would fire anyone that voted for Obama.

Getting your employees to fill out their absentee ballots in front of you may be a way to pressure people to vote a certain way.

But that information would come out and possible bad PR would prevent that.

 

That's ********ed up. And stupid. But mostly ********ed up.

Well actually, it would also be a way to find yourself on the wrong end of a lengthy jail sentence.

Not to mention daily OSHA visits if/when there's a Democrat in the White House.

 

I am willing to bet my paycheck that this Harris dude will never be seated in the new House. He can forget about that job.The D's may have won 40 seats altogether but the R's have lost 41 so far.