Well, I told myself I wouldn't have to do this yet here I am. Stupid 15. One weird/nice thing about this years version: No champions league fixtures mixed in. Travel is down a ton because of this. (as of 8/28/17) EASTERN CONFERENCE 1. Toronto FC 56pts. 27GP. 2.07PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at San Jose 9/16 vs LA Galaxy 9/20 vs Montreal 9/23 at New England 9/30 vs New York Red Bulls 10/15 vs Montreal 10/22 at Atlanta 2. New York City FC 47pts. 26GP. 1.81PPG. 8GR. 4 Home. 4 Away 9/6 vs Sporing KC 9/9 vs Portland 9/16 at cRapids 9/23 vs Houston 9/27 at Montreal 9/30 at Chicago 10/15 at New England 10/22 vs Columbus 3. Columbus Crew SC 42pts. 28GP. 1.5PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/10 vs Sporting KC 9/16 at Vancouver 9/23 vs New York Red Bulls 9/30 vs DC United 10/15 at Orlando 10/22 at New York City FC 4. Chicago Fire 41pts. 26GP. 1.58PPG. 8GR. 4 Home. 4 Away 9/2 at Montreal 9/9 vs New York Red Bulls 9/16 vs DC United 9/23 at Philadelphia 9/27 at San Jose 9/30 vs New York City FC 10/15 vs Philadelphia 10/22 at Houston 5. New York Red Bulls 39pts. 25GP. 1.56PPG. 10GR (1 USOC) 4 Home. 5 Away 9/2 at FC Dallas 9/9 at Chicago 9/17 vs Philadelphia 9/20 at Sporting KC (USOC) 9/23 at Columbus 9/27 vs DC United 9/30 at Toronto FC 10/7 vs Vancouver 10/15 vs Atlanta 10/22 at DC United 6. Atlanta United FC 36pts. 24GP. 1.5PPG. 10GR. 8 Home. 2 Away 9/10 vs FC Dallas 9/13 vs New England 9/16 vs Orlando 9/20 vs LA Galaxy 9/24 vs Montreal 9/27 vs Philadelphia 9/30 at New England 10/3 vs Minnesota 10/15 at New York Red Bulls 10/22 vs Toronto FC 7. Montreal Impact 36pts. 25GP. 1.44PPG. 9GR. 4 Home. 5 Away 9/2 vs Chicago 9/9 at New England 9/16 vs Minnesota 9/20 at Toronto 9/24 at Atlanta 9/27 vs New York City FC 9/30 at cRapids 10/15 at Toronto 10/22 vs New England WESTERN CONFERENCE 1. Seattle Sounders 42pts. 27GP. 1.56PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/10 vs LA Galaxy 9/16 at FC Dallas 9/23 at Real Salt Lake 9/27 vs Vancouver 10/1 at Philadelphia 10/15 vs FC Dallas 10/22 vs cRapids 2. Portland Timbers 41pts. 28GP. 1.46PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at New York City FC 9/16 at Real Salt Lake 9/24 vs Orlando 9/30 at San Jose 10/16 vs DC United 10/22 vs Vancouver 3. Sporting Kansas City 40pts. 25GP. 1.6PPG. 10GR (1 USOC) 4 Home. 5 Away 9/6 at New York City FC 9/10 at Columbus 9/16 vs New England 9/20 vs New York Red Bulls (USOC) 9/24 vs LA Galaxy 9/30 vs Vancouver 10/7 at Minnesota 10/11 at Houston 10/15 vs Houston 10/22 at Real Salt Lake 4. Vancouver Whitecaps FC 38pts. 25GP. 1.52PPG. 9GR. 5 Home. 4 Away 9/9 vs Real Salt Lake 9/13 vs Minnesota 9/16 vs Columbus 9/23 vs cRapids 9/27 at Seattle 9/30 at Sporting KC 10/7 at New York Red Bulls 10/15 vs San Jose 10/22 at Portland 5. Houston Dynamo 38pts. 26GP. 1.46PPG. 8GR. 5 Home. 3 Away 9/9 vs cRapids 9/16 at San Jose 9/23 at New York City FC 9/27 vs LA Galaxy 9/30 vs Minnesota 10/11 vs Sporting KC 10/15 at Sporting KC 10/22 vs Chicago 6. San Jose Earthquakes 36pts. 27GP. 1.33PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at Toronto 9/16 vs Houston 9/23 at DC United 9/27 vs Chicago 9/30 vs Portland 10/15 at Vancouver 10/22 vs Minnesota 7. FC Dallas 36pts. 25GP. 1.44PPG. 9GR. 4 Home. 5 Away 9/2 vs New York Red Bulls 9/10 at Atlanta 9/16 vs Seattle 9/23 at Minnesota 9/27 vs cRapids 9/30 at Orlando 10/7 at cRapids 10/15 at Seattle 10/22 vs LA Galaxy 8. Real Salt Lake 35pts. 28GP. 1.25PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at Vancouver 9/16 vs Portland 9/23 vs Seattle 9/30 at LA Galaxy 10/15 at cRapids 10/22 vs Sporting KC OVERALL TABLE TFC NYCFC CLB SEA CHI POR SKC NYRB VAN HOU ATL MTL SJ FCD RSL PHI ORL NER DCU MIN LAG CRP
Observations: There is a lot of cross conference play to finish the season this year. That kind of disappoints me. I realize it's probably not entirely feasible with the expanded field, but it was fun last year when like all of the last games were within the same conference. Toronto is really really REALLY good Atlanta having 8 home games left on the schedule makes the East a really interesting one to watch. In September, Atlanta will host a game every 3 or 4 days from the 10th to the end of the month. Holy shit. The West is a bit of a nightmare to figure out. Are Seattle legit? Are the Timbers? Will Vancouver actually take advantage of games in hand for once in their existence. What the ******** happened to Dallas? On a more serious note, how are the games in Houston going to be handled with the horrific flooding? Lastly, ******** me for saying this, but looking at our schedule and those ahead of us: the playoffs are actually a pretty legit possibility. We'll have to probably get like 10 points out of these last six games, but with two VERY winnable road games, we suddenly just need to win one or two of the three (difficult) home games. Our season comes down to a three game series with the Cascadia teams. If we are sitting at 40 or more points after the Seattle game, we might be in for a playoff game.
Jynx! But seriously, we have to win games and hope teams lose games, still out of our control. But honestly some of my favorite rsl moments were watching the team battle for the last spot in the playoffs (except last year), that little bit of extra motivation can create some wild and fun games to watch. The longer this team stays in the hunt the better it'll be for chemistry building and tactic development by Petke.
is it all really that far out of our control, though? Say we win all of our home games, we're at 44 points and you've taken points off 3 playoff teams. That alone might do it. Then you add in that 6 points out of 9 on the road are very winnable. 45 points always has gotten a playoff spot, right? Looking at the schedule, that isn't something crazy to see happen. I still doubt this club does it, but the probability is WAY higher than I had it just a week ago.
I guess I'm just not convinced this team is capable of winning high pressure games against equal or better quality opponents. You're talking about winning 5 of our last 6 games, that'd be a historic stretch of quality from this team, it just isn't going to happen. We'll manage some draws, that's just the nature of the beast. Lucky for us the west has had a supremely down year. So flip a coin for each game to determine the outcome.
Whether or not this team is capable of doing it, if they won out, they'd make the playoffs. Sports Club Stats gives RSL over 60% probability of making it if they go 4-0-2 to end the season. And slightly better odds (for some reason) if they end 3-3-0. I'd say that making the playoffs is effectively in the team's control, but it's unrealistic to expect that kind of performance out of them. Given how the first half of the season unfolded, I'm happy with where the team is now, and where they seem to be going for 2018. This talk of playoffs is screwing with my expectations, though, and therefore offends me on many fundamental, personal levels, and 15-to-32 should be held accountable for his unconscionable actions.
Dallas and Houston are both on pace for about 49 points. If that happens, RSL needs 14 to catch up, which is 2.33 PPG; that's four wins, two draws, and no losses. That's better than RSL has done over any six games this year. We need one of those two teams to struggle. Frankly, I'm not worried about San Jose; if RSL plays well enough to pass a struggling Texas team (assuming one of them does), it will pass the 'Quakes. Either way, the turnaround is impressive; this team spent only one week above 1.00 PPG for the season until July 18. The pre-Petke opening got 2 points in 5 games, his first 14 games yielded 15 points, and his last 9 produced 18.
*If* we make the playoffs, I think it comes down to the last day. I think we have to beat Vancouver to stand any real chance though. We've been trending upwards overall the last couple months, so unless the wheels fall off, we should at least end the season on a positive note, even if we miss the playoffs. Last year was bad because we were limping to the finish. This year we've looked better as the season has went on. We're actually fun to watch again. Instead of just tossing the game on in the background and doing something else, I'm actually watching the games again. I have confidence that we'll actually score a goal, and likely at least two. When the other team scores, I'm no longer waiting for their 2nd+ goals that make us lose.
I am just glad that I am not longer wondering at what point in the first 15 minutes we will give up the first goal and then go on to implode the rest of the game. This has been a fun ride, and to think of how well the team has played since July 4th... and we are still this far from the playoffs. Man this season started badly. I do feel better missing the playoffs this season while seeing improvement than I felt falling backwards into them last season.
I think if RSL makes the playoffs its at Dallas' expense. The seem to have caught the disease that RSL had last year.
I wonder if the flooding will affect Houston at all. They only have a couple home games in Sept, but given all of the overall damage, I'd have to think it may take a toll on some of the players as everything gets sorted out with cleaning up and whatnot.
FCD played an amazing match last night after going down a man and down a goal in the first half. They were the much better team throughout the night, and were a bit unfortunate not to get a game winner. That result leaves RSL 2 games back of FCD who also have 2 games in hand. RSL is 1 game back of SJE, who have a game in hand. Still a long shot. With the way FCD played last night, it's hard to imagine their winless streak to continue much longer.
(as of 9/5/17) EASTERN CONFERENCE 1. Toronto FC 56pts. 27GP. 2.07PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at San Jose 9/16 vs LA Galaxy 9/20 vs Montreal 9/23 at New England 9/30 vs New York Red Bulls 10/15 vs Montreal 10/22 at Atlanta 2. New York City FC 47pts. 26GP. 1.81PPG. 8GR. 4 Home. 4 Away 9/6 vs Sporing KC 9/9 vs Portland 9/16 at cRapids 9/23 vs Houston 9/27 at Montreal 9/30 at Chicago 10/15 at New England 10/22 vs Columbus 3. Chicago Fire 44pts. 27GP. 1.63PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/9 vs New York Red Bulls 9/16 vs DC United 9/23 at Philadelphia 9/27 at San Jose 9/30 vs New York City FC 10/15 vs Philadelphia 10/22 at Houston 4. Columbus Crew SC 42pts. 28GP. 1.5PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/10 vs Sporting KC 9/16 at Vancouver 9/23 vs New York Red Bulls 9/30 vs DC United 10/15 at Orlando 10/22 at New York City FC 5. New York Red Bulls 40pts. 26GP. 1.54PPG. 9GR (1 USOC) 4 Home. 4 Away 9/9 at Chicago 9/17 vs Philadelphia 9/20 at Sporting KC (USOC) 9/23 at Columbus 9/27 vs DC United 9/30 at Toronto FC 10/7 vs Vancouver 10/15 vs Atlanta 10/22 at DC United 6. Atlanta United FC 36pts. 24GP. 1.5PPG. 10GR. 8 Home. 2 Away 9/10 vs FC Dallas 9/13 vs New England 9/16 vs Orlando 9/20 vs LA Galaxy 9/24 vs Montreal 9/27 vs Philadelphia 9/30 at New England 10/3 vs Minnesota 10/15 at New York Red Bulls 10/22 vs Toronto FC 7. Montreal Impact 36pts. 26GP. 1.38PPG. 8GR. 3 Home. 5 Away 9/9 at New England 9/16 vs Minnesota 9/20 at Toronto 9/24 at Atlanta 9/27 vs New York City FC 9/30 at cRapids 10/15 at Toronto 10/22 vs New England WESTERN CONFERENCE 1. Seattle Sounders 42pts. 27GP. 1.56PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/10 vs LA Galaxy 9/16 at FC Dallas 9/23 at Real Salt Lake 9/27 vs Vancouver 10/1 at Philadelphia 10/15 vs FC Dallas 10/22 vs cRapids 2. Portland Timbers 41pts. 28GP. 1.46PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at New York City FC 9/16 at Real Salt Lake 9/24 vs Orlando 9/30 at San Jose 10/16 vs DC United 10/22 vs Vancouver 3. Sporting Kansas City 40pts. 25GP. 1.6PPG. 10GR (1 USOC) 4 Home. 5 Away 9/6 at New York City FC 9/10 at Columbus 9/16 vs New England 9/20 vs New York Red Bulls (USOC) 9/24 vs LA Galaxy 9/30 vs Vancouver 10/7 at Minnesota 10/11 at Houston 10/15 vs Houston 10/22 at Real Salt Lake 4. Vancouver Whitecaps FC 38pts. 25GP. 1.52PPG. 9GR. 5 Home. 4 Away 9/9 vs Real Salt Lake 9/13 vs Minnesota 9/16 vs Columbus 9/23 vs cRapids 9/27 at Seattle 9/30 at Sporting KC 10/7 at New York Red Bulls 10/15 vs San Jose 10/22 at Portland 5. Houston Dynamo 38pts. 26GP. 1.46PPG. 8GR. 5 Home. 3 Away 9/9 vs cRapids 9/16 at San Jose 9/23 at New York City FC 9/27 vs LA Galaxy 9/30 vs Minnesota 10/11 vs Sporting KC 10/15 at Sporting KC 10/22 vs Chicago 6. FC Dallas 37pts. 26GP. 1.42PPG. 8GR. 3 Home. 5 Away 9/10 at Atlanta 9/16 vs Seattle 9/23 at Minnesota 9/27 vs cRapids 9/30 at Orlando 10/7 at cRapids 10/15 at Seattle 10/22 vs LA Galaxy 7. San Jose Earthquakes 36pts. 27GP. 1.33PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at Toronto 9/16 vs Houston 9/23 at DC United 9/27 vs Chicago 9/30 vs Portland 10/15 at Vancouver 10/22 vs Minnesota 8. Real Salt Lake 35pts. 28GP. 1.25PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/9 at Vancouver 9/16 vs Portland 9/23 vs Seattle 9/30 at LA Galaxy 10/15 at cRapids 10/22 vs Sporting KC OVERALL TABLE TFC NYCFC CHI CLB SEA POR NYRB SKC VAN HOU FCD ATL MTL SJ RSL NER PHI ORL DCU LAG MIN CRP
The biggest thing to come from this last week: Confirmation that the cRapids are the worst team in the league
I'll take the direction RSL is heading over Orlando at the moment. Orlando has a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs and RSL is about 24%. I wouldn't take odds that Kreis lasts longer in Orlando than Petke at RSL. JK has to be on thin ice. The Don Dwyer deal seems to signal a bit of desperation. Interesting to say the least.
Actually 3 out of last 4 years its taken 50 or more I agree with this. If RSL passes Hou or FCD then SJE will be out of the way. Here were my thoughts on what it will take. Still feeling like about 47 points is what it will take.
(as of 9/11/17) EASTERN CONFERENCE 1. Toronto FC 59pts. 28GP. 2.11PPG. 6GR. 4 Home. 2 Away 9/16 vs LA Galaxy 9/20 vs Montreal 9/23 at New England 9/30 vs New York Red Bulls 10/15 vs Montreal 10/22 at Atlanta 2. New York City FC 50pts. 28GP. 1.79PPG. 6GR. 2 Home. 4 Away 9/16 at cRapids 9/23 vs Houston 9/27 at Montreal 9/30 at Chicago 10/15 at New England 10/22 vs Columbus 3. Chicago Fire 45pts. 28GP. 1.61PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/16 vs DC United 9/23 at Philadelphia 9/27 at San Jose 9/30 vs New York City FC 10/15 vs Philadelphia 10/22 at Houston 4. Columbus Crew SC 43pts. 29GP. 1.48PPG. 5GR. 2 Home. 3 Away 9/16 at Vancouver 9/23 vs New York Red Bulls 9/30 vs DC United 10/15 at Orlando 10/22 at New York City FC 5. New York Red Bulls 41pts. 27GP. 1.52PPG. 8GR (1 USOC) 4 Home. 3 Away 9/17 vs Philadelphia 9/20 at Sporting KC (USOC) 9/23 at Columbus 9/27 vs DC United 9/30 at Toronto FC 10/7 vs Vancouver 10/15 vs Atlanta 10/22 at DC United 6. Atlanta United FC 39pts. 25GP. 1.56PPG. 9GR. 7 Home. 2 Away 9/13 vs New England 9/16 vs Orlando 9/20 vs LA Galaxy 9/24 vs Montreal 9/27 vs Philadelphia 9/30 at New England 10/3 vs Minnesota 10/15 at New York Red Bulls 10/22 vs Toronto FC 7. Montreal Impact 36pts. 27GP. 1.33PPG. 7GR. 3 Home. 4 Away 9/16 vs Minnesota 9/20 at Toronto 9/24 at Atlanta 9/27 vs New York City FC 9/30 at cRapids 10/15 at Toronto 10/22 vs New England WESTERN CONFERENCE 1. Portland Timbers 44pts. 29GP. 1.52PPG. 5GR. 3 Home. 2 Away 9/16 at Real Salt Lake 9/24 vs Orlando 9/30 at San Jose 10/16 vs DC United 10/22 vs Vancouver 2. Seattle Sounders 43pts. 28GP. 1.54PPG. 6GR. 3 Home. 3 Away 9/16 at FC Dallas 9/23 at Real Salt Lake 9/27 vs Vancouver 10/1 at Philadelphia 10/15 vs FC Dallas 10/22 vs cRapids 3. Vancouver Whitecaps FC 41pts. 26GP. 1.58PPG. 8GR. 4 Home. 4 Away 9/13 vs Minnesota 9/16 vs Columbus 9/23 vs cRapids 9/27 at Seattle 9/30 at Sporting KC 10/7 at New York Red Bulls 10/15 vs San Jose 10/22 at Portland 4. Sporting Kansas City 41pts. 27GP. 1.52PPG. 8GR (1 USOC) 3 Home. 4 Away 9/16 vs New England 9/20 vs New York Red Bulls (USOC) 9/24 vs LA Galaxy 9/30 vs Vancouver 10/7 at Minnesota 10/11 at Houston 10/15 vs Houston 10/22 at Real Salt Lake 5. Houston Dynamo 38pts. 27GP. 1.41PPG. 7GR. 4 Home. 3 Away 9/16 at San Jose 9/23 at New York City FC 9/27 vs LA Galaxy 9/30 vs Minnesota 10/11 vs Sporting KC 10/15 at Sporting KC 10/22 vs Chicago 6. FC Dallas 37pts. 27GP. 1.37PPG. 7GR. 3 Home. 4 Away 9/16 vs Seattle 9/23 at Minnesota 9/27 vs cRapids 9/30 at Orlando 10/7 at cRapids 10/15 at Seattle 10/22 vs LA Galaxy 7. San Jose Earthquakes 36pts. 28GP. 1.29PPG. 6GR. 4 Home. 2 Away 9/16 vs Houston 9/23 at DC United 9/27 vs Chicago 9/30 vs Portland 10/15 at Vancouver 10/22 vs Minnesota 8. Real Salt Lake 35pts. 29GP. 1.21PPG. 5GR. 3 Home. 2 Away 9/16 vs Portland 9/23 vs Seattle 9/30 at LA Galaxy 10/15 at cRapids 10/22 vs Sporting KC OVERALL TABLE TFC NYCFC CHI POR CLB SEA NYRB VAN SKC ATL HOU FCD MTL SJ NER RSL ORL PHI DCU LAG MIN CRP
I don't know if many of you watched it over the weekend, but ATL looked really really good against FCD. I didn't feel like FCD was in shambles during the match, either. ATL was just that good. If they can play to that form the rest of this home stand they really could move up the table. With that said, TFC has the top spot on lock. Good lord is that team good. The only question now seems to be if they can maintain that through the playoffs. Will they get tripped up by a hot ATL team? If they survive the East, can they actually win the cup this time at home? The east is all set it seems. I just really don't see how Montreal is going to make up the ground they need to. They have 2 games at TFC, which Toronto will love to flex their strength in. Then you mix in a trip down to ATL and a home game against NYCFC? Just not gonna happen. In the West, it's all up for grabs. The top 4 or 5 teams could all win the conference. They could also all fail to qualify. I don't think the latter will happen, but who knows. We actually play a big role in how this will finish. With games at home against 3 of the top 4 teams we can at worst play spoiler. The Houston loss to the cRapids was an interesting one to note. No way a playoff level team should lose at home to that awful team. There was a lot going on with that Houston game (first back from the hurricane) so who knows what to take of it. If Houston struggles this week, then you have to figure they're going to drop a lot of points with the schedule they have. I predict they finish with 46 points (8 points in their remaining games) Similarly, Dallas has a schedule that really will test them to see if they've found a way out of their rut. If they don't get a win against Seattle this weekend, I'm not sure they should be favored to in many other games this week. I predict they finish with 45 points (8 points in their remaining games) San Jose has a more manageable schedule, but one that will not be easy by any stretch of the imagination. I predict they finish with 44 points (8 points in their remaining games) Which leads us to RSL. In order to have any chance, we've got to reach at least 45 points I think. Probably more. That means we have to take full points at home. A feat that will not be easy. The road games at the cRapids and LA will be tough, but there are at least 4 points for the taking there if this team shows up. I actually think we win 3, draw 1, and lose 1. That would put us at 45 points and just on the edge of the playoffs. A place that is actually ideal to be.