The 2016 Chase Thread

I hope you don't mind if I put this here as well.

I would be curious to know how everyone else would pick the last 9 games for RSL this season.

My guesses for the last 9 matches:

FC Dallas Home 1 point, maybe
Colorado Home 0
LA Home 1 point, maybe
Portland away 0
Houston Home 3 points a must
FC Dallas Home 1 point, maybe
Quakes away 1 point
SKC Home 3
Seattle away 0

Total 10 max with 7 worst case

I don't really have a lot of faith in this team at the moment to make any kind of playoff push.

I hope I'm wrong, as usual.

 

I'll post this here as well:

Seems all to logical and reasonable, seeing as how we got 10 points over our last 9 games I can see us getting 7-10 over our next 9. Especially considering the uptick in competition coming down the stretch and seeing as how the competition over our last 9 was weaker (DC, Philly, Chicago, Vancouver, SJ). You look at the competition of our last 9 games, we played 5 teams below the red line (and multiple eastern conference teams), next 9 games we play 2 teams below the red line (and nothing but western conference teams). Keep in mind we played 5 home games and 4 away games in the last 9, but (IMO) the quality of the opponents over the last 9 is less than the quality of our opponents over the next 9.

So the question is "will 44-47 points be enough to get into the playoffs and probably save Cassar's job?" As much as I want to be in the playoffs I have no desire to see Cassar on the sidelines anymore. So does San Jose, Vancouver, or Seattle figure out a way to get above us without KC and Portland also shitting the bed? I don't believe Vancouver has a chance with their schedule, I don't see how it's possible to make up the points to overtake RSL. So it'll come down to SJ really, possibly Seattle jumps in the mix now with Lodeiro. SJ in particular has 2 games in hand on us and their next 2 games are reasonable for them to win with Houston and NE at home, if we lose to Dal at home this weekend, SuKC beats Vancouver at home, and SJ wins their two home games then we're on the outside of the red line. SuKC also has a very congested schedule which could see them drop off as well.

 

The home games are a disadvantage if I have correctly interpreted some of the conjecture in the RSL threads.

 

Unless we see an actual uptick in quality, I fear these last games will be rough. Right now, I just don't see us doing well enough to even advance if we manage to get into the playoffs. For all the 'bad luck' the FO claims we have, they seem to ignore that maybe the first of the season was actually just good luck, and we were playing above our ability. So far, we've had more bad than good, so I tend to think we were just having a run of great form to start the season.

 

I've said all along that if this club makes the playoffs it will more than likely be a one-and-out scenario. At best they advance to the second round. The only position group up to the level needed for a playoff run is GK.

 

Serious contenders are Dallas, Colorado, LA, and Toronto if Giovinco is on. Everyone else has significant flaws. Not that winning would be impossible, but they aren't on that level.

The East is pretty confusing. Toronto is so reliant on the Ant-Man that they could lose if he misses a game or is only human. If that happens, draw a name from a hat.

 

So ... Just to be clear, we're in 6th place in the league overall? But the sky is falling and we won't make playoffs? And if we do make playoffs, we're one and out? Do I have my "facts" right?

 

Correctamundo regarding the one-and-out playoff run.

 

Basically.

But there's solid cause for concern. RSL was in first place after about a quarter of the season, then gradually slipped down the standings. The remaining opponents are tough. Overall standings don't matter when it comes to playoffs, RSL is in the West.

On the other hand, there are only a couple teams in the league without significant flaws. Even then, Dallas and the Rapids are both far from unbeatable. While I'm not optimistic, it's still true that a great run of play at the right time is all it takes.

 

I believe Colorado was ahead of us pretty much the whole time, weren't they? I think we were a solid #2. It sucks that we've slipped to #4 in the west. Trust me, I feel it. But people: the sky is not ********ing falling. We're just a mediocre, underperforming team. Like a lot of MLS.

 

I am not getting too excited about this team possibly making the playoffs. The current standings are a result of a great start. First 6 games of the season RSL averaged 2.3ppg., next 19 resulted in 1.2ppg., overall is sitting at 1.48ppg. If we take the remaining games at the season ppg then RSL ends at 50/51 points (50.5 actually) and that might be enough. However, I feel that unless something dramatic happens, the more recent 19 games are more indicative of this team's performance for the rest of the season. This would result in a final point total of 47/48 points depending on how you round it. Most likely this will not get a playoff spot. I am actually hoping RSL fails to get to the playoffs so we hopefully see some changes. This current setup will never win the cup.

 

Who are you and what have you done with @Lizzie Bee? Or did Lizzie get assimilated in the FO spin machine. I expected more EMBRATSU than this.

 

I don't think anyone is saying the sky is falling...in fact I think everyone agrees that we're a mediocre underperforming team. We're just pointing out why we are such a team and expressing disappointment because we want RSL to win a trophy.

 

It may have been for only a week, and I don't remember if it was points or ppg, but I remember being ahead. (Of course, I'm also aware our memories can lie to us, but I don't have time to check every week's results for several teams to reconstruct this.)

 

This is how I feel too. What great organization out there says, "hey our competition is mediocre and under-performing, it's just fine if we are too"? To be honest this is the time when a high performing organization shines like Caesar amongst slum lords.

 

Over the last 10 or so games we are averaging 1.1 ppg. That's roughly 37 points over a season, not a playoff caliber team. The current form is indicative of the quality of this team overall, we aren't a playoff team, luckily the teams below us have done absolutely nothing to take advantage of our poor form. There's no denying we got out to a hot start over a handful of games and have totally regressed. There's a lot of reasons for that, teams have figured us out, the coaching is awful, players aren't stepping up, we've had a few injuries, etc etc.

 

I think there's a direct correlation of PPG to GSP (Games Sunny Played). What is his estimated return date? Can somebody hit up CCB121 on Twitter to get file stats there?

 

According to this, 47 points gives us 94% chance of making the playoffs. With 48 points, we would have a 98% chance. So even if we keep our recent form of 1.1 ppg, we're in really good shape to make the playoffs.

And, as we know all too well, once you're in it doesn't matter how good/bad you were during the season. It's a total crap shoot from there on out.

 

Ehhh, Sunny got hurt on June 22nd against the Red Bulls, up to that point we were averaging 1.78 ppg and since then we are averaging 1.17 ppg, BUT we were already in the midst of our mid-season collapse, in the 8 games prior to Sunny's injury we had 3 wins, 4 losses, and a draw for 1.25 ppg.

This season really is built on those first 6 games, a stretch of 2.33 ppg, since that opening 6 game stretch we've averaged 1.21 ppg. Basically we rocketed out of the gates, caught teams by surprise, and then settled into the team we truly are (utterly mediocre). Our form over the last 19 games would put us in 13th place (7th in the west) in the current ppg standings, I truly believe that's about where this team really is. Thank god for that win in Philly, if it weren't for that our only win since Sunny went out would have been that home game against awful Chicago.

Also, if the entire season's form depended on one single player then we really are a shit team.

 

Wasn't Sunny out for a while, then back, then out again?

 

That's what I thought.

 

Sunny missed 2 games and 1 game within that stretch up until his major injury, not a ton of time.