I was interested to see a comparison between how teams did in their first 15 games and then since (mainly because I know it's been a tale of two seasons for Seattle). Here's what I came up with - please note, I found at least one omission on MLS's website regarding scores for the season, so there may be errors here. Please correct me if I am wrong. Records are W-D-L (forgive me for the formatting, I've never figured that out) First half of the season: East Columbus 8-4-3 = 28 points New York 8-2-5 = 26 points Toronto 6-4-5 = 22 points Chicago 5-5-5 = 20 points Kansas City 4-3-8 = 15 points Philadelphia 4-3-8 = 15 points New England 4-2-9 = 14 points DC United 4-2-9 = 14 points West Los Angeles 10-3-2 = 33 points Real Salt Lake 9-2-4 = 29 points Dallas 6-7-2 = 25 points Colorado 6-5-4 = 23 points San Jose 6-4-5 = 22 points Houston 5-3-7 = 18 points Seattle 4-3-8 = 15 points Chivas 4-2-9 = 14 points Second half of the season: East New York 6-3-3 = 21 points (12 games) Kansas City 5-3-3 = 18 points (11 games) Columbus 5-3-4 = 18 points (12 games) Philadelphia 3-4-5 = 13 points (12 games) New England 3-3-6 = 12 points (12 games) Chicago 2-3-6 = 9 points (11 games) Toronto 2-3-7 = 9 points (12 games) DC United 2-1-9 = 7 points (12 games) West Seattle 8-3-1 = 27 points (12 games) Dallas 6-6-0 = 24 points (12 games) Real Salt Lake 5-7-0 = 22 points (12 games) San Jose 5-3-3 = 18 points (11 games) Los Angeles 5-3-4 = 18 points (12 games) Colorado 5-3-4 = 18 points (12 games) Chivas 3-2-5 = 11 points (10 games) Houston 2-3-7 = 7 points (12 games) What really stands out to me is how average LA has been in the second half and how bad the East has been.
Because the playoff race has become so uninteresting, it might be worth to pick on other goalposts (home field in the west), supporters' shield, usoc, for my weekly analyses, given that we'll probably see a very minmal analysis necessary on the final day.
And Chivas has now been eliminated, by their rivals AGAIN. Also, that result has now cleaned up the supporters shield race to 5 teams. Lowest possible point total is LAG on 54 Columbus will be eliminated from the race with: -any loss -any LA victory New York will be eliminated from the race if: -they lose to RSL Dallas will be eliminated from the race if: -they lose to LA
couldn't LAG lose each of the last 3 games and end up on 53 where they are now? i think maybe the minimum is RSL or FCD on 54. i could be wrong tho. LAG losing every game to end at 53 would mean they lost to FCD who would then have 53. but FCD and RSL play each other so they could tie leaving FCD on 54 or RSL could win leaving them on 54. all three could lose the rest of their games and the teams below them that would get wins from such a scenario (NYRB and COL etc) would still be below 54 from just those wins. i think i worked that all out correctly.
iwas thinking that because RSL could end up on 54 by beating FCD, we assume that Dallas beat RSL, leaving one LA on 53, Dallas on 52, and RSL on 51. Then because FCD play LA they ciould tie and go to 54. Now that I think of it's possible they could all tie on 53 points with RSL on 52, since a tie would put RSL on 52, and assuming they lose to New York. It could be Dallas and LA on 53.
exactly. either LAG or FCD have to end up on at least 54. LAG losing to FCD puts FCD on 52. RSL plays FCD. if there is a tie then FCD has 53 and RSL 52 (assuming here that RSL and FCD lose all their other games). an FCD win and an RSL loss would put FCD on 55 and RSL 51. an RSL win would put them on 54 and FCD at 53. so the lowest possible points that can result out of the RSL/FCD match would be 53 for FCD. i didn't do all of the calculations but i think that the trailing teams that would have to beat the likes of FCD and RSL and LAG for this 53 lowest max points to happen are all far enough back in the point totals that they wouldn't be higher than that number from the necessary wins. COL has to beat all three of LAG/FCD/RSL for this to happen but that is 9 points added to their 41 which only takes them to 50. and RBNY would have to beat RSL taking them to 50 (while they could lose to PHI/NER). essentially you were correct tho. 53 is the lowest possible number for the SS (it just happens to be FCD or LAG) and any team that cannot reach 53 points is out of it. so that is every team but those 3 and RBNY and CBUS. COL will have a lot to say in the outcome of the SS race (facing the top 3 contenders) and their getting in the playoffs is certainly not a lock. 3 games from which they could very easily take 0 points would leave them on 40 and hoping that KCW doesn't win 3 of their 4 remaining games (giving them 41 points). unless my math is wrong i think TFC is eliminated. they lose a 2 way tie break with COL on 40 pts and they lose a 3 way tie break with KCW/COL too. somebody should probably check me on that.
if i could do math i'd be dangerous. sorry. so yes. the lowest possible SS winner is either LAG on 53 or FCD on 53. but that still excludes everybody but RSL, CBUS and RBNY plus those two right?
Housekeeping Ain't none. So onto the nonsense ... I mean the numbers. Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# WS# M# T# HD#÷ AD#÷[/U] [COLOR="Blue"]01 LAG 27 3 16 05 06 53 1.96 59 62 10 -- -- -- -- -- 02 RSL 27 3 14 09 04 51 1.89 57 60 08 -- -- -- -- -- 03 FCD 27 3 12 13 02 49 1.81 54 58 06 -- -- -- -- -- 04 NYR 27 3 14 05 08 47 1.74 52 56 04 -- -- -- -- -- 05 CMB 27 3 13 07 07 46 1.70 51 55 03 -- -- -- -- --[/COLOR] 06 SEA 27 3 12 06 09 42 1.56 47 51 -- -- 04 12 -- 1.53 07 SJE 26 4 11 07 08 40 1.54 46 52 -- -- 06 13 -- 1.67 08 COL 27 3 11 08 08 41 1.52 46 50 -- -- 05 11 -- 1.87 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 09 KCW 26 4 09 06 11 33 1.27 38 45 -- -- 13 06 1.77 3.40 10 TFC 27 3 08 07 12 31 1.15 34 40 -- -- 15 01† 3.00 5.20 11 CHI 26 4 07 08 11 29 1.12 33 41 -- 02 17 02 2.77 4.40 [COLOR="SlateGray"]12 PHI 27 3 07 07 13 28 1.04 31 37 -- 03 18 -- -- -- 13 NER 27 3 07 06 14 27 1.00 30 36 -- 04 19 -- -- -- 14 HOU 27 3 07 05 15 26 0.96 29 35 -- 05 20 -- -- -- 15 CDC 26 4 07 04 15 25 0.96 29 37 -- 06 21 -- -- -- 16 DCU 27 3 06 03 18 21 0.78 23 30 -- --‡ 25 -- -- --[/COLOR] Current AD-Line: 47^[/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1 M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL] HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG) AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL] AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG) - Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.** - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B] Asterisks † TFC remains playoff viable only because its tiebreaker with SJE goes to GD, which is unsettled. ‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 10 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain. ^ Set by COL’s current 46 point (1.52 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above. ** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother. Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 LAG 27 53 13 14 8 2 3 8 3 3 00 02 RSL 27 51 14 13 10 4 0 4 5 4 -04 03 FCD 27 49 14 13 8 5 1 4 8 1 -06 04 NYR 27 47 13 14 9 1 3 5 4 5 -06 05 CMB 27 46 14 13 9 2 3 4 5 4 -09 06 SJE 26 40 13 13 6 3 4 5 4 4 -12 07 SEA 27 42 14 13 7 3 4 5 3 5 -13 08 COL 27 41 14 13 8 4 2 3 4 6 -14 09 KCW 26 33 13 13 6 3 4 3 3 7 -19 10 CHI 26 29 12 14 3 6 3 4 2 8 -21 11 TFC 27 31 14 13 6 5 3 2 2 9 -24 12 PHI 27 28 13 14 5 6 2 2 1 11 -25 13 HOU 27 27 13 14 5 3 5 2 3 9 -26 14 CDC 26 25 13 13 5 2 6 2 2 9 -27 15 NER 27 26 14 13 6 3 5 1 2 10 -29 16 DCU 27 21 13 14 3 1 9 3 2 9 -32 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B] Code: [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U] [U] HPPG APPG[/U] 01 RSL 2.43 01 LAG 1.93 02 NYR 2.15 02 FCD 1.54 03 FCD 2.07 03 SJE 1.46 04 CMB 2.07 04 SEA 1.38 05 LAG 2.00 05 NYR 1.36 06 COL 2.00 06 RSL 1.31 07 SEA 1.71 07 CMB 1.31 08 TFC 1.64 08 COL 1.00 09 SJE 1.62 09 CHI 1.00 10 KCW 1.62 10 KCW 0.92 11 PHI 1.62 11 DCU 0.79 12 NER 1.50 12 HOU 0.64 13 HOU 1.38 13 TFC 0.62 14 CDC 1.31 14 CDC 0.62 15 CHI 1.25 15 PHI 0.50 16 DCU 0.77 16 NER 0.38[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] [U] WK28 WK29 WK30[/U] CDC: TFC @SEA SJE ---- ---- CHI CHI: CMB KCW @CDC ---- DCU ---- CMB: @CHI @TFC PHI COL: @FCD @LAG RSL DCU: SJE @CHI TFC FCD: COL @RSL @LAG HOU: NER @SJE SEA KCW: SEA CHI SJE ---- @NER ---- LAG: @PHI COL FCD NER: @HOU KCW @NYR NYR: RSL @PHI NER PHI: LAG NYR @CMB RSL: @NYR FCD @COL SEA: @KCW CDC @HOU SJE: @DCU HOU CDC ---- ---- @KCW TFC: @CDC CMB @DCU[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U] Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG] RSL: 1.90 FCD: 1.81 COL: 1.79 PHI: 1.79 NER: 1.49 LAG: 1.38 KCW: 1.34 SEA: 1.21 CDC: 1.20 CMB: 1.13 HOU: 1.13 TFC: 1.13 DCU: 1.11 NYR: 1.10 CHI: 1.08 SJE: 0.91[/B] Code: [B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U] [URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL] [URL="http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/soccer.htm"]Sagarin's MLS Ratings[/URL] [URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL] [URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL] [URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL] [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/content/2010-playoff-standings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL] [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoff-format"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL] [URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] Please suggest others.[/B] Notes 1) It seems that the old 40 points gets you within spitting distance of the playoffs rule of thumb is kaput. All the teams in the top half of the table are at or above 40 points already, and there’s three weeks to go. Maybe this year is an aberration. Maybe it’s a sign of things to come. One thing is for certain: the reason the 40 point rule of thumb is no more is because of a big jump in MLS team disparity. Earlier in this thread I posted a graph showing the standard deviations of MLS PPG numbers since 1996. The updated raw graph looks like this, and not much has changed since the last time I posted it. I remarked at the time that the variability of the 2005 numbers was due entirely to the entrance of CDC and RSL into the league. So I decided to see what the standard deviation was just for the established MLS teams over the years and removed the numbers for all expansion sides during their initial expansion year. This meant, for example, removing CDC and RSL in 2005 (both of which did terribly), as well as removing CHI in 1996 and SEA in 2009 (both of which did great). Leaving Houston’s numbers in (because they were not a true expansion side), but taking all the expansion sides out, the graph looks like this. I suspect because of contraction, from 2001 to 2002 there was a huge increase in league parity (take out Tampa in 2001 and the standard deviation remains high: .41). If you were to draw a trendline from 2002 until 2009, it’d be pretty close to a straight line, maybe just a little under .24. Then this year there’s a big jump in disparity. I assumed this was because of the league spending more money on salaries, but it’s not (or at least that’s not the only or the decisive factor). Projecting current PPG numbers into season totals, and comparing those projections to team salaries, you get this: Yes, NYR and LAG are at the top of the standings, but so are RSL, FCD and CMB. More, TFC and CHI are both near the bottom of the standings despite higher than average salaries. Finally, take out LAG and NYR from the standard deviation calculations and the change barely even registers, dropping only from .39 to .36. So spending is not the decisive factor here. Even if you take out the high spending teams, the disparity remains. There’s just more disparity in this league than there has been since 2001. The better teams are simply better, and the worse teams are simply worse. Why? Honestly, I have no idea. 2) COL, that was a seriously stupid game to lose. I mean, you needed the points, you’re playing the worst team in the league (a team that just plain doesn’t win in Denver), and then after that you have one of the very hardest schedules in the league. And you went and blew it. Big time blew it. Stupid! 3) KCW, how the devil did you lose and yet survive another weekend? 4) SJE, how did you get such an embarrassingly easy end of the season schedule? The DC United Dungeon of Doom & Doggies! I sense a pattern here: every three games, we win. Considering this season, it’s not terrible. Giving Interim Head Coach Olsen credit for Substitute Interim Head Coach Ashton’s win over COL, the Olsen Pace improved to -.89, which is a hell of a lot better than Onalfo’s pace of -1.33. If we want to beat the old DCU worst, then we’ve gotta win every single one of our remaining games. So forget that, because it ain’t happening. What about beating the worst teams ever? We’re back out of the bottom five. And we only need one stinking, lousy point to stay out of the bottom five for good. Currently, we’re at 21 points. If we end the season at 21 points we’ll match the 2009 NYR record. So we need one point, and as far as I’m concerned, that should be our goal for the remainder of the season: one point. That and more puppies!
i am not sure i'd want to be the Rapids. their death schedule sets up for a nice familiar end of season tank job. zero points in the last 3 games is very conceivable. that would leave them sweating bullets that the Wizards can't re-get hot and win 3 of 4. this could get interesting. but not to hate on KCW their fans have a new stadium and Omar Bravo to look forward to next season so i hope for the long suffering Colorado fans they manage to either A. get a few points in their last games or B. not get caught by KCW. they really do deserve to finally make the playoffs.
I wonder if it is a sign that expansion actually is diluting the talent pool. That's not to say that the teams are getting worse, but in the past a FO that wasn't very good at picking out quality talent and coaches could get away with it because there weren't as many teams out there to take the good players. With the larger number of teams in the league now, there are now more "good" FOs that are picking off the better talent leaving the "bad" FOs with less opportunities to stumble on some talent? I'll call it the Blind Squirrel Theory. Let's say you've got a field with 60 good nuts and 40 bad nuts in it. Each squirrel can have 5 nuts in total. Initially when you send out 10 squirrels, 2 of them are blind squirrels and 8 of them can see. Now the 8 squirrels that can see run out and get 5 good nuts each taking 40 good nuts off the field leaving the blind squirrels 20 good and 40 bad nuts. Just playing the odds that means the blind squirrels are going to get about 2 good nuts on average, so they can still compete with the squirrels that can see. Now the next time you send out 16 squirrels into the same field, but this time there are 70 good nuts and 30 bad nuts (representing improving quality of the players). You've still got the initial 2 blind squirrels, but now you've got 13 squirrels that can see and another blind squirrel.The 13 sighted squirrels run out and take 65 of the good nuts and leave the blind squirrels with only 5 good nuts. This means the blind squirrels are getting less than one good nut on average, but let's say 2 get one good nut and 1 gets all bad nuts. The blind squirrels with one good nut can kind of compete with the squirrels can see, but they still lose out more often then not. However the blind squirrel that got all bad nuts curls up into a ball and is just beat to crap by the squirrels that can see.
This post is why I love Bigsoccer. Using a blind squirrel and nuts metaphor to explain possible reasons for league disparity through expansion. Successfully.
I'm of two minds on this. Certainly, I think that's totally plausible, and I even advanced a variant of this idea to explain the increased parity in 2002: contraction increased the density of the talent pool. But at the same time I can look at this and say it's not 100% clear. I used the sans expansion year teams data. On the one hand, there's really no decisive correlation between the number of teams and the amount of parity. The 12 team league numbers are all over the place. On the other hand, if you dig a little deeper, there is a plausible story about the number of teams and league parity. Look at the clusters. The 10 team league cluster is grouped pretty closely together. There are lower standard deviations and less variation at 10 teams, meaning the league exhibits more parity. There's much, much more variation in a 12 team league. But the high disparity years are pre-2001 (let's assume 2000 was a fluke). When the league returned to 12 teams in 2005, there was a high degree of parity (perhaps because of an expanded talent pool). And then you have the last three years: each year the number of teams increased and each year parity decreased. The only hitch: seems to me the last few years this league has been bringing in more and more talent. Still ...
Boy, I just had a totally withering thought. If Yoshou's hypothesis is correct (and there is some evidence it is), then DCU is probably totally screwed next year. DCU needs upgrades pretty much everywhere. More, if any FO relies on blind squirrel luck for finding quality players, it's the DCU FO. But with Portland and Vancouver joining the league, the talent pool will become even more stretched and the chances of the DCU FO being lucky will be even worse. What depressing prospects ...
I see it completely different - it now challenges teams to develop players rather than relying on the USSF through Bradenton and the NCAA to develop players for them. For the growth of the league and US soccer as a whole, this is a good thing. And I think a handful of teams who have been aggressive about developing youth players now have an edge in this new league order. I would consider DC to be one of those teams.
I dunno.. One of the good things about this league is it doesn't take that much to swing from a good team to a crap team and vice versa. DCU gets a good coach in the off-season and they could be right back into the thick of things.
Now that you say that, look at Seattle, Philly in the second half of this year and San Jose - teams that were awful at some point recently (Philly early this year, SJ last year) or starting from scratch, etc., I think you're right. There are still quite a few "nuts" out there for squirrels, blind or not, to find.
What if the new DP policy, the return of the Reserve League, and the continued ramping up of the Developmental programs INCREASE the number of "good nuts". Now if only we could do something about the number of blind squirrels in the Revolution front office.
I think the impact of all that is to raise the overall quality of the nuts in general. The quality of your average good nut in 1996 is probably about the same as a marginally bad nut today, while your average bad nut in 1996 isn't even on present on the field in 2010.
Courtesy of Joshua Mayers at the Sounders FC blog. Scenarios provided to him by MLS. Nothing we didn't already know, but... http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ht..._race_to_mls_playoffs_six_teams.html#continue
Yoshou I tried to rep the blind squirrel post but could not. Well played sir well played. Knave as always thanks for putting this together. I had a feeling looking at the standings that this week could end the playoff race altogether nice to see confirmation of that. Would this then be the earliest that all playoff participants was known?
Well, I think you're both thinking a bit more long term than I am. And you might be right in the long term. But it's not like the team's academy is going to fix DCU's problems by next season. (And we may have trouble finding that "good coach" Yoshou is talking about. That is, however, another thread over on the DCU board.) As for the year to year mobility ... I actually think it takes more than "not that much," and given that my team's mobility in recent years has been entirely downward ... so, yeah ...