The 2010 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Numerical Arcana of Dubious Value [R]

Actually the complete opposite happened. The talent pool has noticeably increased while at the same time the impact of the help the league provides to the lazy and blind squirrels has drastically decreased. In the great society days, the league was parsimonious with its budget but doted on those franchises in need. The blind and lazy nuts were given top draft choices which allowed the to get the best of the often limited nuts available from draft, top allocation choices which allowed them the even more limited number of nuts available from outside the draft and allocation money needed to pay for them.

But now the league has given teams significantly more money to spend on players and has allowed teams to spend even more of their own. Gone are the days when a team like the Galaxy had to have a back line of Troy Roberts and Ty Harden if they wanted to have a few quality players like Donovan and Beckham.

With more money available, players like Alonso, Le Toux and others who were offered minimal contracts are in MLS rather than USL. Now there is more money to sign a whole host of foreign players who used to be priced out of the league. Seattle brought in Keller, Ljungberg, Hurtado, Gonzalez, Montero and Nyassi. LA brought in a trio of Brazilian players this year. Red Bull brought in their trio foreign starters. The blind squirrels in Toronto brought in a bunch of foreign players as well. Unfortunately Toronto's were of the likes of Gerba, Mista and De Guzman. .

Same with the draft. Every round featured numerous quality players and the Johnson, Francis and Graye in the fourth. Nowak took complete advantage of DCs belief in a limited talent pool by getting Fred and a first round draft pick. What made DCs trade even more foolish is that MLS gave the more ambitious squirrels the ability grow their own nuts and DC had a really good one that was almost in ripe in Hamid. The bottom line is that with so many more nuts available, the Usuck allocations and top draft choic isn’t enough to do it anymore.

 

So instead of sack up we should be saying sack out?

 

I see what you're saying.

But it can be done. Dallas now has two rookies drafted in last year's SuperDraft (Loyd, Alexander) playing pretty much starting roles, two mid-season signings (Jackson, Rodriguez) and a pre-season pickup off essentially the waiver wire (Hartman).

The right five players can be found if you know where to look.

It will be interesting to see who DC and TFC, and any other team - Chicago? Chivas? - that looks for a new gaffer in the winter, sign up to run their locker-rooms. I'm not sure there are a ton of great options out there. Paul Mariner, Colin Clarke, Richie Williams, and . . . . who?

Any other teams out there that we think might make an off-season change?

 

If the Rapids blow their playoff shot Gary Smith might be at risk. It would be a spectacular failure which might be big enough for even the Rapids FO to feel like they need to do something.

 

i have been wondering about this. the three remaining games are the toughest possible @FCD, @LAG, RSL. losing all three of those wouldn't exactly be some outlandish result, they are the 3 best teams in the league all season. would fans and the FO see losing those three games to the best three teams in the league (2 on the road) as "failure"?

because that is all it would take to set up COL to not make the playoffs. of course KCW would still have to win 3 of 4 which isn't anywhere near a certainty and maybe not even likely.

but if COL were to not make the playoffs it would be nothing more than COL losing to the three best teams in the league and another team getting hot (out of their hands). i am just curious if the fans would see that as a failure or not? i'd be hard pressed to really blame a team for either of those two things. now maybe the blame would be for losing to DCU? that could be a different kettle of fish because that certainly is blameworthy.

 

If RSL knocks them out of the playoffs for the third time in a row, I think it is safe to say Smith is gone. Regardless of who they are playing in the final three games, Colorado has dropped points earlier in the season that they should have picked up. Sure it is understandable that they might lose all three of their remaining games, but the playoffs aren't achieved in a team's final games, it's the entire season that matters and to come so close and still miss out?

 

excellent point. from this current situation not making the playoffs might be an understandable and largely out of their hands series of events. but being in this situation is entirely of their making.

and that would completely suck to get bounced from the playoffs another time by their hated rivals.

 

You do know this is exactly what happened at the end of the last 2 seasons.

 

One of the problems KC might have is that of roster depth, particularly for the game against New England. Vermes will definitely have to be careful about making sure his players don't get burned out this upcoming week.

Here's KC's schedule:
Oct 9: Seattle
Oct 12: @Chicago
Oct 16: @New England
Oct 23: San Jose

The first set of three games might be what knocks out KC. On the plus side for them, they are getting a Seattle team that just had a tough Open Cup final. On the minus side for that game, Seattle clinches with a win or tie, so Seattle will definitely be motivated to get a result. And then they have to travel to Chicago shortly after, and then travel again to face a fully-rested New England. And they need results from most of those games, so it's obviously high-pressure for them the rest of the way out. I could easily see them losing that New England game if Vermes doesn't do a good enough job managing the team / keeping players as fresh as possible.

For the Rapids:
Oct 9: @Dallas
Oct 16: @Los Angeles
Oct 23: RSL

At the very least, at least they don't have middle of the week games anymore. And they're playing teams that have pretty much already clinched and may be resting for the playoffs, while Colorado still has that motivation of "win and we're practically in".

But seriously, I can't believe they lost to DC.

 

1 win in the middle 10 games of the season

Stating that the team only needed 4 wins in the last 10 games of the season

On the heels of those 4 wins, benching 4 starters, including the reigning MLS player of the month, against DC and losing that game at home

That, and losing to our rival at home to end the season again, is why he would (correctly IMO) be blamed.

 

Mariner has not exactly distinguished himself with Plymouth.

But there are a ton of decent Euro and South American coaches available.

And those guys don't count against the cap.

 

List the foreign coaches who have succeeded in MLS.

Compare/contrast to ones who haven't.

End of line.

 

The same thing could be said for players. Folks wanting to raise the foreign player limit should learn their history. For every Schelloto there's 5 or so Brancos.

That said, I think there's room for everyone. It's the whole "grass is greener on the other side of the fence thing" that bothers me.

Actually, the grass might be greener, but we can't afford that grass.

 

And it's illegal.

Wait. I'm bad at analogies.

 

Well, Steve Nicol and Hans Bakke have been generally successful (with Bakke admittedly with only one season to his credit).

Gary Smith, John Carver, Colin Clarke, Carlos de los Cobos have had middling careers.

So, is the foreign ratio greater than the US ratio?

Because if you're going to mention failed/mediocre foreign coaches, you'll also have to mention gems like Greg Andrulis and Tim Hankinson.

Plus, there's a gray area of "domesticated" foreigners like Lothar Osiander, Thomas Rongen, Martin Vasquez, Preki, Frank Yallop, Fernando Clavijo, Ron Newman, Brian Quinn, et al.

 

Steve Nicol, didn't just "get off the boat" and start coaching in MLS. Nor did Ron Newman, Thomas Rongen, Dominic Kinnear, Denis Hamlett and others.

While Nicol hadn't been in the country for the time some of the other transplants, he cut his teeth with the Boston Bulldogs as a player/coach for a few years before taking over for Clavijo in New England.

 

To update, based on tonight's result:

Playoff status unchanged, see below:

Seattle Sounders FC will clinch a playoff spot this week IF:
-- SEA does not lose to KC Saturday; OR
-- any other Seattle win; OR
-- any other KC loss

Colorado Rapids will clinch a playoff spot this week IF:
-- COL defeats DAL AND
-- SEA does not lose to KC Saturday

San Jose Earthquakes will clinch a playoff spot this week IF:
-- SJ defeats DC on Saturday AND
-- SEA defeats KC

Kansas City Wizards will be eliminated IF:
-- SEA defeats KC AND
-- SJ defeats DC AND
-- COL defeats DAL

Toronto FC will be eliminated IF:
-- TOR does not win all of their remaining matches; OR
-- SJ does not lose all of its remaining mathces

Chicago Fire will be eliminated IF:
-- CHI does not win all of its remaining matches; OR

-- COL defeats or ties DAL AND
-- SJ defeats DC

Supporters' shield:

Columbus has been eliminated tonight

Lowest possible point total is LAG 56

New York will be eliminated from the race if:
-they do not win any remaining match; OR
-LA does not lose all of their remaining matches

Dallas will be eliminated from the race if:
-they lose any remaining match; OR
-they do not defeat LA on October 24

 

LA, RSL, DAL, or NY will need to rip the Brian Carroll Trophy from Brian Carroll's cold, dead hands.

 

US open cup positions:

RSL will clinch spot if:
-they do not lose any of their remaining matches; OR
-San Jose does not win all of their remaining matches; OR
-Seattle does not win all of their remaining matches

Dallas will clinch if:
-they win any of their remaining matches

 

Re: the shield and Red Bulls

Red Bulls almost certainly can't take LA head-to-head (goal differntial). The only possibility i've found so far is a 3-way tie that brings Dallas into it.

 

The Red Bulls have a GD of 8, LA 18. If Red Bulls won their three remaining matches and LA lost their last two, that would only require a constant margin of 2 goals per game, which is not unreachable. Bigger surprise would be if all 5 of those results went New York's way.