Fair enough. I saw him play in person once this year (when SKC came to Salt Lake last month) and he was honestly pretty bad. He completely lost Luis Silva for RSL's only goal, and in general was pretty helpless against RSL's attack. He got saved by the post a few times, and by Melia a few other times. He's a good CB for sure, I'm not trying to knock him. I've certainly seen him play well before. But it's not like Gerard Pique is sitting on the bench there. How high should he be rated on the basis of U20 games?
I remember that game. The goal came down RSL's left side, the RCB and RB were split, Ellis was completely out of position, so Palmer-Brown needed to cover the middle of the box, in case the winger had gotten inside of the two defenders or the ball was played into the middle of the box. The winger played the ball to the top of the box (might've even been outside the box), and he couldn't adjust in time to block the shot. He didn't really do anything wrong on that play, nor did Melia. The culprits were the RB, RCB and #6. And you are right, he had a few bad plays in that game, but he wasn't so bad. That was probably also his worst game with SKC this season, so I wouldn't base much on that.
EPB was a beast in the SKC-FCD US Open Cup game. Opara was a bit better in the first half but EPB took over that game. Dallas had a ton of attacking chances snuffed out by him. I am one who is fine with the Opara / Besler pairing but cannot figure out how EPB isn't automatically their #3 and one who should have seen increasing minutes over his time there. If he had gotten minutes that Ellis got over the last few years he might have been a starter this year and either Opara or Besler might have been the #3. Very curious how they've handled him.
It seems like our front six has a lot of quality prospects. And it seems like a lot of good goalkeeping prospects. We'll have Yedlin as a baseline at right back through 2026.There seem to be a number of good prospects in goal. LB is probably a problem spot, but anybody can play left back. Maybe it's Acosta. But I'm trying to figure out who the center backs would be. Palmer-Brown, obviously. But then who else has big club potential there? Would it still be 33-year-old John Brooks? Does CCV recover and start progressing again? Who?
Glad, CCV, Redding for CB. Definitely lacking real star options besides that group. I like what I've seen from some of the '01 and '02 CB's, but they are a long way off, and no definite star players. LB will be better eventually, I think, considering we got Bello and Gloster who are two potential star players, along with Acosta and Farfan who have gotten more than just garbage minutes as teenage LB's in MLS this season.
I tend to think that we should be more cognizant of uncertainty in general. If you offered me an even money bet that EPB never gets a single national team cap, I'd probably take it. I'd give him a better chance than anybody else in his age group at being a USMNT fixture, but most of these guys aren't going to pan out. We overrate the odds that the best YNT players right now will continue improving, and we underrate the odds that a B or C rated prospect, someone like Alex Crognale or Kortne Ford, will improve. If you go back to 2005, you'd probably rate all of Marvell Wynne, Jonathan Spector, and Patrick Ianni above Geoff Cameron.
Yup I'd take a bet with anyone that there are players right now in college that will play in a WC for the US team. If you take the top 10 American teenagers beyond Pulisic that are professional, Id bet at least 5 never make a WC team
Man it's funny how much can change in a year. Rubio Rubin is basically done for. Julian Green close to out of chances. Desevio Payne is starting in the Dutch u21 league Carter-Vickers and Perez are kinda on last chance loan spells. Although with Vickers at least defenders can take a while to develop. Zelalem and Emerson Hyndman have joined the Stu Holden club Pulisic is Pulisic lol Acosta looks like a long term us player and Arriola very underrated I think. Horvath might be our keeper next cycle. Steffen, Glad Haji and Palmer Brown still look promising.
Either some of this next crop actually breaks thru in 1-3 years as legit high level footballers, or we'll be staring down the barrel of a three cycle gap in development, in which case I don't think it's a gap anymore and just becomes, we're not good at development.
It's the same thing ever year. Guys like Mckennie will come out of nowhere and most of our "top prospects" will suck. Clint Dempsey was a nobody, Geoff Cameron, etc, but we all knew Jon Spector Joe Gyau and Freddy Adu were guaranteed superstars.
I think people are writing off these two way too early. Carter-Vickers needs games. He looked like he was lacking fitness in the few games he's gotten for Spurs the last year, and because of that, people have said he's not good enough for Spurs. Anyone who plays only a few games per year won't be at their best. Before this lack of games, no one was questioning him. Maybe he makes it at Spurs, maybe not, but I think people are writing him off for a strange reason. And the Perez situation seems similar. His club team has neglected his development, maybe he's not good enough for Fiorentina, I don't know, but even before he appeared last season in Serie A, the hype with Perez was due to him being a good player. I wouldn't write him off just because his club situation has went south. He's still only 19, plenty of time to find a better club situation, I think he's much more likely to "turn it around" than someone who's lost their hype due to talent related reasons. People said Miazga and Yedlin were done when they signed with Chelsea and Spurs, look where they are now.
I'm not writing him off. Specifically said as a defender he has a bit longer, but this year is pretty important for him. If he can't get on the field for Sheffield United this year that's pretty bad. Same for Perez, key year where he has to play. If Perez can't get time this year he's going to quickly be Gabriel Ferrari level.
I don't think McKennie really came out of nowhere. He was MVP of a tourney in France right before the U17 WC. Either way, I'm tired of getting excited about 17/18 yr olds only to see them stall by 22/23 like clockwork. I also see far fewer nobodies coming as scouting/globalization has hurt any ability to keep players under wraps. Everything is scouted now. There's prospect I like, Sargent, Carleton, Pomykal, Taitague, but I'm going to sit back and wait until they're actually ballin' in a top league before getting excited.
I think as MLS and the DA system improve, the players who are playing college soccer who make the WC team are going to become far and few between. They put themselves at such a development disadvantage. In 2010, it was 15 WC members who played college soccer, 11 in 2014. I think with Arena at the helm he'll select more older and experienced MLS players for 2018 than the trend would indicate, but I don't think there would be more than like 10 in most people's 2018 WC rosters, so the numbers are definitely going down. I'm sure there will be a few 10 years down the road, but that'll likely be the Dempsey's, Holden's, Besler's, Guzan's, Cameron's, etc, not the Zusi's, Bedoya's, Wondolowski's, etc. If you don't come out of college soccer and become a really high level player by your early/mid 20's, I don't think there's going to be a place for you in the NT anymore.
The trend certainly seems to be going away from college soccer and probably will continue in the same direction but I would'nt write it off yet. College baseball was nothing in comparison to the farm system of MLB but now they are relevant. Considering that the farm system is an established, successfult development system, that is quite an accompllishment. By contrast, the development system in the US is still in it's infancy. I can't really see college soccer taking/retaking a primary role in US soccer develpment but I won't be surprised if they are able to fill a significant niche.
Baseball doesn't have nearly the development competition. Soccer clubs in much of the world have these kids as basically full time pros by 16 years old. Other than Japan and Korea no country has a developed baseball infrastructure. All the Latin kids are coming to the US as teenagers if they can.
At the end of the day, the extremely boring point is that it's just difficult to forecast how individual players will develop. It's not a USA problem or an MLS problem. It's just really hard to do. I know it's not earth-shattering to say that. But we tend to lose this perspective. I.e., when we talk about the big 4 1997 CBs (Glad, EPB, CCV, Redding) as if they'll be the core of the USMNT going forward. I'd be shocked if more than 1 make a World Cup team, and I won't be shocked if none of them do. 1 out of 4 would be a good ratio. We should just be more uncertain. It's not a crisis every time a good prospect doesn't pan out. Plenty of highly touted prospects will turn into Marvell Wynne, and a couple of non-prospects may turn into Matt Besler. That's OK.
Last chance loan deal for Perez? I'd say it's a good situation since most Fiorentina fans had him going one more season with the Primavera before being loaned out next season. He's already made his debut for his new club. Plus with extra subs being allowed in Serie C, he'll definitely get more playing time in Serie C at a higher level than he was at. Most of the times in Italy, young players that have a future are sent on loan to lower divisions early in their careers.
Concerning Perez: One thing I haven't seen mentioned on these boards is that it was actually reported as news in Italy when Perez was not selected for the U-20 WC. I don't think anyone has necessarily written him off at Fiorentina. As I said in his thread, the ball is now in his court. If he impresses on loan, there is no reason he can't return to the first team or get another team.
I partially agree. baseball prospects sign pro contracts a bit later (upon graduation from high school) and they don't have the same focused pathway from u-2 to the senior team as is true in much of the world but it is, in many ways, similar to the way that the US system seems to be devleoping. Soccer has club, baseball has little league, pony league and (as far as I know) travel teams? (I have to admit that Im not really a big baseball fan and am going by memory from when I was a kid). The best kids are signed to pro contracts or have the option to attend college. In soccer, it is pretty much the same except that the quality of college soccer is such that college players lag in their development compared to professionals. Assuming that the model stays pretty much the same in the US, the main thing that needs to change in college is overall quality of the experience. I know there are many issues, soccer and non soccer related (season length etc) but I can definitely see the college game supplementing the professional development path. I don't believe it would replace it. The days of college being our (almost) sole development pathway are long gone.
My only main point is that baseball has no competition for development. So we don't know if our model is the best because other then the Japanese it's the only one. Agree College soccer isn't going away and we are still going to get national team guys out of it through the next few cycles.
ok. I was looking at it a bit differently. college baseball vs farm system and college soccer vs. MLS academy and USL.
The most important perspective is that all we really need is 2 to 4 really good prospects every year. There are times were we are penciling in 10 of them at a time and shooting down another 10. Edit: We should probably shoot a little higher right now because of the paltry pickings we've had from 1989 until 1992.
Its also true that for those of us that have been around a while, the definition of a "really good prospect" has changed significantly. Particularly for those of us that were fans in the pre-1990 dark ages. The shift over the past 30 years has been so dramatic that its hard to explain to younger fans. Our definition of a "really good prospect" in 2017 should be a player with the talent to play for a Champions League-caliber team from a "top 4 league." We don't have a lot of players "in their prime" right now in that category. Hence there's little separation between us and other CONCACAF nations.