Unlikely to do that well. Certainly possible, but... This CR is significantly better than historical, Elo + 157 Mexico and Panama significantly better than average, both +61 The USA is close to average - Elo +8 T&T is slightly below average, Elo - 43 Honduras is significantly weaker than historical, Elo - 134 The average Elo change from historical of our opponents is +20.
I spaced a neglected the original Hex for 1998 qualification. For histories sake, I'll complete this. The 1998 qualification Hex was actually seen as the most difficult to get through according to Elo; mainly because we just weren't very good back then. Fortunately, all of CONCACAF was pretty weak as well. Mexico was 1st, but not all that magnificent at 1787. At the beginning of the Hex we actually trailed....wait for it... CANADA Seems hard to believe, but Canada was at 1644, ahead of the USA in 3rd at only 1630. Costa Rica (1565), Jamaica (1551), and El Salvador (1485) rounded it out. This mix had the USA's chances of finishing Top 3 at only about 64%. There wasn't a half point available, so going in nothing was certain. But turns out, Canada was Canada, finishing last on just 6 points (and minus 15 GD, ouch) helping the US finish 2nd on 17 points.
After last night. The results of one 10,000 simulation run - Team, Place: MEX - 1st (7,459), 2nd (2,094), 3rd (379), 4th (67), 5th (1), 6th (0) CR - 1st (2,128), 2nd (5,266), 3rd (1,884), 4th (671), 5th (47), 6th (4) USA - 1st (218), 2nd (1,558), 3rd (4,042), 4th (3,402), 5th (656), 6th (124) PAN - 1st (191), 2nd (1,059), 3rd (3,409), 4th (4,500), 5th (732), 6th (109) HON - 1st (3), 2nd (12), 3rd (149), 4th (715), 5th (4,569), 6th (4,552) T&T - 1st (1), 2nd (11), 3rd (137), 4th (645), 5th (3,995), 6th (5,211) The USA qualifies direct 58.18% of the time (down 20.06%). Plays in the playoff, 34.02% (up 17.84%). Eliminated, 7.80% (up 2.22%). Good news is that with Honduras and T&T suffering home losses, our chance of missing out entirely didn't take a huge hit, but a strengthening Panama puts us on a jet to Uzbekistan a lot more often. Obviously it's still very early, and the sims don't play the games, but Mexico and Costa Rica can pretty much book their tickets. Here is the USA point scenarios for this run - Points, # of Occurrences, Top3%, 4th% 0-1, Never 2 - 1, 0%, 0% 3 - 5, 0%, 0% 4 - 8, 0%, 0% 5 - 28, 0%, 0% 6 - 58, 0%, 2% 7 - 108, 0%, 15% 8 - 210, 0%, 30% 9 - 291, 0.3%, 44% 10 - 478, 3%, 70% 11 - 695, 10%, 76% 12 - 754, 16%, 79% 13 - 992, 35%, 64% 14 - 1152, 54.8%, 45.1% 15 - 1074, 68.6%, 31.3% 16 - 1143, 84%, 16% 17 - 887, 94%, 6% 18 - 683, 97%, 3% 19 - 671, 99.9%, 0.1% 20 - 309, 100% 21 - 208 22 - 162 23 - 30 24 - 39 25 - 14 26 - N/A 27 - Never 28+ N/A
Qualification odds from ESPN's SPI: Mexico: 99% Costa Rica: 88.5% USA: 65% Panama: 54% Honduras: 24% Trinidad and Tobago: 8% That gives CONCACAF only a 38.5% chance at winning the playoff with AFC.
By adding up the probabilities you get 3.385 teams from CONCACAF, meaning 0.385 teams from the playoff with AFC.
Thanks for posting. Do they publish SPI anywhere anymore? They have Honduras quite a bit higher than me, but the others are in in range. Overall a bit low, and that would likely by from what you found, with CONCACAF at only 38.5% over AFC. That's surprising. Here's a couple scenarios based on the result down in Costa Rica tomorrow (this does not take into account he results of the other 2 matches, nor exchanges in Elo points). USA loss (1-0): Top 3= 51%, 4th= 40%, Out=9% Draw (0-0): Top 3= 61%, 4th= 32%, Out=6% USA Win (1-0): Top 3= 77%, 4th= 21%, Out=2%
I don't know if they publish SPI anymore. What might make the SPI favor AFC in the playoff is that the current third place teams are South Korea and Japan, with South Korea being better than Japan in the FIFA Rankings and ELO Ratings. In the FIFA Rankings, South Korea is in between third and fourth in CONCACAF. In the ELO Ratings, South Korea is in between second and third in CONCACAF.
Two games in, it would seem your worries are not without merit. I'd be very curious to see what the simulations predict now. T&T is going to be 6th. USA fights Honduras for that 4th spot? That game in March should be played somewhere cold; maybe even Ohio again; as late at night as possible so it's even colder.
ELO updates: 1. Mex - 1894 (12th globally) 2. CR - 1835 (16) 3. US - 1718 (33) 4. Pan - 1671 (40) 5. Hon - 1545 (72) 6. T&T - 1478 (86) I wrote this a year ago on the balance of power in CONCACAF. The CR and Panama rise has been in place for a while. https://andthenthehex.wordpress.com/2015/11/09/the-concacaf-balance-of-power/
Things could not have gone worse. Team, Place: MEX - 1st (5,767), 2nd (3,635), 3rd (521), 4th (71), 5th (6), 6th (0) CR - 1st (3,989), 2nd (4,700), 3rd (1,076), 4th (216), 5th (19), 6th (0) PAN - 1st (174), 2nd (1,070), 3rd (4,670), 4th (3,377), 5th (627), 6th (82) USA - 1st (68), 2nd (564), 3rd (3,363), 4th (4,508), 5th (1,248), 6th (249) HON - 1st (2), 2nd (29), 3rd (318), 4th (1,482), 5th (6,019), 6th (2,150) T&T - 1st (0), 2nd (2), 3rd (52), 4th (346), 5th (2,081), 6th (7,519) The USA qualifies direct 39.95% of the time (down 18.23%). Plays in the playoff, 45.08% (up 11.06%). Eliminated, 14.97% (up 7.17%). I'll be back with some Asian scenarios as that's, incredibly, looking like a very real possibility. Here is the USA point scenarios for this run - Points, # of Occurrences, Top3%, 4th% 0, Never 1 - 1, 0%, 0% 2 - 6, 0%, 0% 3 - 11, 0%, 0% 4 - 29, 0%, 0% 5 - 53, 0%, 0% 6 - 97, 0%, 5% 7 - 217, 0%, 13% 8 - 356, 0%, 22% 9 - 513, 0%, 46% 10 - 747, 1%, 63% 11 - 970, 6%, 77% 12 - 993, 14%, 77% 13 - 1206, 27%, 71% 14 - 1154, 45.7%, 53.9% 15 - 957, 60%, 40% 16 - 1032, 76%, 24% 17 - 642, 92%, 8% 18 - 419, 95%, 5% 19 - 379, 99.7%, 0.3% 20 - 89, 100% 21 - 79 22 - 42 23 - N/A 24 - 8 25+ - N/A
We're seeing a major flaw in the Elo rating system if results like last night only drop us 20 pts, and getting shellacked by Argentina by 4 while not recording a shot "just" 24 pts. I don't they are properly contextualizing how bad of losses those really are. That's why metrics like these are useful more as a general gauge and to objectively back up looking at the picture in entirety to yield the most valid result possible. Still, being all the way down to 33 is pretty darn embarrassing at this stage in our evolution. Our talent pool more should put us 16-20. Those teams are Costa Rica, Switzerland, Poland, Ecuador, Peru. A solid manager should have us in that class, let alone some of the teams below. Those saying our talent isn't good enough to contend for the World Cup are creating a straw man. Few if anyone are saying that, rather that our current standing, at 33, when that's probably even quite flattering, is grossly dissatisfying.
This. And Sunil seems ok with it (so far). And Jurgen has led us here and clearly doesn't care. Perhaps he cares, which means he just too incompetent to do anything about it. This is the reason we need a new coach. We are going to qualify for Russia. Like Mexico 3 years ago, we will probably have to play a terrible team from Asia home and away and we will win. That's terribly embarrassing. Panama might finish above us. That's completely unacceptable.
You have to love the disparity between the situations for the head coaches: Mexico's head coach was literally one loss away from getting canned before beating us in C'bus while JK loses two in a row, the second as badly as we have lost in a large amount of time, and there is no sense from Sunil at this point that anything is likely to change. To borrow from Lombardi, "Will someone tell me what the hell is going on here????"
Here's the other thing. Let's say we're the 5th placed team on the last match day and Mexico is playing the 4th placed team, and the only way we have to qualify is if Mexico beats that 4th placed team. How likely is it that El Tri beats that team like we did in Panama? Fat f'ing chance. What is more likely is that they send out their U-23 squad or play at 10% speed.
I think Osorio would play some subs and fringe players to see what they can do, like Klinnsman did last cycle. If I am fighting for my spot on the roster or starting line-up, no way in hell would I give any less than 100%.
By the Numbers: USA in the Hexagonal http://www.socceramerica.com/article/71243/by-the-numbers-usa-in-the-hexagonal.html