Yes, San Diego made it last year with a record of 11 - 7 - 2, which would be achievable for both teams without winning every game. Portland has a record of 5 - 6 - 1. They have 7 games remaining, including games against San Diego, Santa Clara and Pepperdine (away). To reach 11 - 7 - 2 they would have to get 6 wins the rest of the way. (Portland only has a 19 game schedule, so it can't reach 11 - 7 - 2 exactly.) San Diego has a record of 6 - 7 - 0. They have 7 games remaining, including games against Portland and BYU (both away) and Santa Clara at home. The would have to go 5 - 0 - 2 to reach 11 - 7 - 2. Not that 11 - 7 - 2 is the gold standard, but how much worse than that can they be and still get in? St Marys needs only two wins to get to 11 victories. 5 teams from the WCC?
SCUFantastic, here are my guidelines for this exact point in the season based on years 2007 through 2010. These guidelines represent who has reasonable potential to end up in a particular pool, come NCAA Tournament bracket formation time. The pools get smaller as we get closer to the end of the season: Pool of possible #1 seeds (of which there will be four): ARPI rank of #9 or better Pool of possible seeds (of which there will be sixteen): ARPI rank of #37 or better Pool of teams that might not make the bracket: ARPI rank of #22 or poorer Pool of teams that might make the bracket as at large selections (of which there will be 34): ARPI rank of #86 or better There can be exceptions to any of these guidelines, but they are not what one could reasonably anticipate from a pure numbers perspective. Knowing the teams, one might say some teams are more likely to be exceptions to the guidelines than others. Oklahoma State was an exception in 2009, if I recall correctly, and Penn State was an exception last year. These are traditionally good teams that are struggling early but that mount strong runs in good conferences at the end of the season. For application to the West Coast Conference, here are the ARPI rankings of the conference teams for games through Sunday, October 9 (my rankings): 8. Pepperdine 18. Santa Clara 50. Portland 58. BYU 60. San Diego 63. St. Mary's 96. Loyola Marymount 123. Gonzaga 198. San Francisco
In 2009, Duke got in with an 8-8-4 record. In part, they benefited from a high strength of schedule due to playing in the ACC. On the other hand, Duke's non-conference strength of schedule wasn't that great (for one thing, one of their wins was against Alabama A&M). Although the WCC will help with strength of schedule this year, I don't think it will help as much as the ACC did that year. On the other hand, Portland's non-conference strength of schedule is very high this year, San Diego's less so. I'm just guessing, but I don't think an 0.500 record would work for San Diego and I'm doubtful it would work for Portland, but it conceivably might for Portland. But, if either team's RPI is sufficient to get it into the at large bubble (which I believe is a 15 team group, with the center of the group being that team that would be "last in" for an at large selection if the NCAA used only the RPI, and with the other 14 teams being the 7 ranked just better and the 7 ranked just worse than the center team), then the RPI ranking becomes less important. At that point, in most cases, the Committee starts looking at the bubble teams' records against teams already selected for the bracket and the bubble teams' records over the last eight games. I think, for records against teams already selected, the Committee is looking for good wins and ties. For records over the last eight games, I think they're looking for poor results. I used this approach to analyze the 2009 and 2010 at large selections and came up with exactly the same decisions as the Committee.
Allwhitekit's analysis of WCC team's chances: http://www.allwhitekit.com/?p=7886#more-7886 WCC -Lock: Pepperdine, Santa Clara -Bubble: Portland, BYU, San Diego, St. Mary’s (CA) Pepperdine and Santa Clara are both solidly in the field and contenders for a national seed, but the big question is who, if anybody, will join them from the WCC. Portland’s got the wins to get in if they’re on the bubble, with victories over Florida State, Washington State, and Oregon State to their name. But they’re also a game under .500 with seven to play and have just won three of their last ten. BYU’s got a better record but has bubble problems of their own with a pedestrian resume. The Cougars do have a win over Portland to tout though but may need to win at Santa Clara to give themselves a great shot. If they go down to the Broncos, they may well have to run the table in league play over the final few weeks of the regular season. San Diego stopped a five match losing streak with a win over San Francisco, but the damage had largely been done already. The Toreros are also a game under .500 and are going to have to win a good many of their remaining games to get consideration with wins over Missouri and Texas not exactly setting the pulse racing. St. Mary’s has a win over UC Irvine but really could have used a result against Santa Clara this past weekend. As is, the Gaels may have to beat Pepperdine and knock off some WCC bubble rivals along the way.
Santa Clara tied BYU Thusday 1 - 1 and defeated USF 5 - 0 on Sunday, both at home. The BYU game featured an excellent 1st half by the Broncos, and by game-end they had out-shot BYU 19 - 9. However, none went in the back of the net. For the most part this was due to poor finishing. The BYU keeper did make one outstanding save on a shot by Marguerite Aosaza which bounced off a defender and was coming in just under the crossbar before it was tipped over. Bianca Henninger made six saves for Santa Clara but except one save on a header by an unmarked attacker all of the stops were on long shots with little prospect for actually going in. Jerry kept his starters in most of the game and he was rewarded by heroic efforts by Julie Johnston, Sophia Huerta and Mana Shim among others. But late in the game and into overtime, players were running on fumes. Katie Spiedel came in for only a few minutes in the 2nd half and seemed to provide a spark but was quickly pulled. USF was apparently using their 3rd string keeper to start the game and it cost them. She made an outstanding save early, but minutes later what appeared to be an easy save went through her hands and Santa Clara was up one. The second goal was a great diagonal service from Lauren Matheson to Julie Johnston, who showed Matheson what you do with such balls by finishing into the back of the net. The next two goals were strong finishes by Sophia Huerta for her 3rd multi-goal game of the season. Kat McAliffe added a more weight to her argument for increased field time with a shot from outside the box that went in just inside the post. Santa Clara at 2 - 0 - 1 is now just behind undefeated 3 - 0 Pepperdine in league play, and just ahead of 2 - 1 San Diego. The Broncos play 1 - 2 Portland in Portland on Friday in what promises to be a tough game. Portland lost to San Diego Friday 2 - 1 and beat St Marys 7 - 4 Sunday. 11 goals in one game, imagine that. This year's senior class has never beaten or scored on Portland, so this is their last chance. On Sunday SCU travels to 0 - 2 - 2 Gonzaga who has most recently lost by one goal to BYU and USF after tying St Mary's and LMU.
Nice win in Portland. TWO blocked penalty kicks ... Danielle Foxhoven is going to be having nightmares about Bianca. from SCU: http://santaclarabroncos.com/sports/w-soccer/2011-12/releases/20111022tuhfuk (in the third paragraph, sounds like a free kick, not a penalty kick) from Portland: http://www.portlandpilots.com/news/2011/10/22/WSOC_1022114953.aspx?path=wsoc (in the fourth paragraph, Julie was not the goalkeeper, Bianca was) I'm glad I got to see the Broncos two weeks ago, makes it seem a lot more real when I read about them.
I recorded it and watched it this morning. Foxhoven is not having a very good time with those. That was her second and third missed pk's of the year. The second one was so bad the GK barely moved. Even the announcers said it was poorly taken. I find it interesting that he chose to not sub for anyone. Except with 9 minutes left and he only subs one player. It's just not their year. The second goal was such destitute defense, its hard to believe. There has been plenty of those this season. The PK's, the inept performance in the final third this year has just been remarkably ordinary. Their inability to just go forward is alone frustrating. It was kinda of funny, on several occasions Portland would take possession of the ball in open field and the announcers would say "and here comes Portland" only to watch them turn around and pass it backwards. I will be watching the Oklahoma St/Texas A&M game this Sunday.Hopefully
While I agree that this is not Portland's year, they didn't look that bad. In fact, they held possession nicely for long stretches of the game and made SCU scramble for the win. It wasn't the Bronco's best game, but any time you get a win at Portland it is a great achievement. Huerta was just plain unlucky in this game, but boy am I impressed with her ability to create a shot in tight spaces.
She did the same to Nigeria twice in a row in the overtime penalty kick shootout (in the 2010 U-20 women's world cup), but the referee gave Nigeria a 2nd and 3rd try on them, and finally Nigeria capitalized, and it ended up costing the U.S. their world cup.
Great weekend for the Broncos finally beating Portland. Two great saves by Henninger, a fortuitous 1st goal and a well-taken 2nd goal put us in a good situation going into our game this weekend against Pepperdine. The 1st goal was very similar to our goal against Notre Dame this year. Service into the 12, looping header that just beats the keeper. Johnston continues to find ways to score. Huerta didn't score but hit one off the post and sent a screamer just high in the 2nd half. I thought the 2nd pk call was not a great call. I think obstruction, maybe, and then we get the interesting situation of an indirect kick from the six. Interesting enough the way it was called, I guess. Foxhoven coming into this year was 6 of 6 on pk's. 1 of 1 in 2010, 4 of 4 in 2009 and 1 of 1 in 2008. The rest of the team, prior to this year, was 5 of 9. Foxhoven connected on a pk against Florida St to win their 1st game this year, but followed that up by hitting the post a few weeks later against Washington to bring her career record to 7 of 8 going into the Santa Clara game. She had never had one blocked in the course of the game. So you can't argue that Foxhoven was a poor choice, particularly on the 1st shot. Whether you want to send her up again after having one blocked is a question, I suppose, but not one you usually have to face. She is having a hard time this year mainly because Henninger blocked two of her shots in one game. Capelle was by far the most dangerous player for Portland. She got the goal, of course, but she also made the pass that lead to the 1st pk and was generally a threat any time she got the ball near the goal. Santa Clara's defense is going to have to toughen and smarten up a bit if the team wants to make progress in the tournament. The two center backs are a freshman and sophomore who didn't start the season as center backs. With Laponte down with an injury, Cali Reis has had to come in on the outside. Klei has experience on the other outside but seems a little banged up. What does look good for the team is the emergence this weekend of Miller and Vernon from injuries. Miller scored twice and her goal against Portland was beautifully precise. Vernon was brought down from behind against Gonzaga for the initial pk and then scored herself on a scramble. It takes a team to do well in NCAA Div 1 women's soccer, and with Miller and Vernon stepping up Jerry has a few more options to help the team get the W.
#10 Santa Clara v #3 Pepperdine at Santa Clara this Friday 5:00 Two very evenly matched teams. Pepperdine has the advantage in the league standings because of Santa Clara's draw with BYU. Santa Clara needs a win to hope to finish atop the table while a win or draw works for Pepperdine. Overall record: SCU 11 - 1 - 5 Pep 13 - 0 - 4 Conference record: SCU 4 - 0 - 1 Pep 5 - 0 - 0 Santa Clara at home 6 - 1 - 2 Pepperdine on road 6 - 0 - 3 Record against current top 25 teams: SCU 1 - 1 - 1 Pep 1 - 0 - 1 (SCU Stanford, Oregon St, UC Irvine) (Pepperdine UCLA, Illinois) Common Opponents: (SCU result 1st, Pep 2nd) Cal 3 - 0, 2 - 1 UCSB 2 - 1, 3 - 0 BYU 0 - 0, 1 - 0 Gonz 4 - 1, 1 - 0 St Marys 2 - 1, 2 - 1 Goals scored/given up: SCU 35/10 Pep 34/9 Leading scorers, goals/assists: SCU - Johnston 9/3, Huerta 7/2, Shim 3/4, Parchinski 3/3 Pep - Guajardo 9/2, Williams 5/8, Cole 5/3, Manning 4/4
Wow. That should be a great game. I'm sure we'll be able to count on you for a nice, detailed write-up, SCUFANTASTIC. How has Pepperdine fared against SCU the past few years? They've been a nemesis to UCLA for a couple of seasons now.
We're driving away from the game right now (couldn't stay for the men's match). Santa Clara 1, Pepperdine 0. Bridgett Miller scored with maybe 20 seconds left in the first half. We thought it was a pretty good match all the way around.
Looks like the west coast teams (SCU, Stanford, UCLA, Pepperdine) are going to do well in the tournament!!
Two quality wins to take over 1st place in the WCC. A lot of pressure by the Broncos on the Pepperdine goal in the 1st half. Julie Johnston had a wonderful opportunity that was kick saved, and Huerta beat the keeper but hit the post. But it wasn't until time was being counted down that SCU hit the shot that won the game. Bridgett Miller, who had game-winners the last two games, refused to follow the crowd as the ball was served into the area. A defender headed the ball away from goal from about the six, and it floated over the gathered scrum of defenders and attackers. As they turned to follow the ball, Miller stepped up from near the 18 and did two things that the other players so rarely carry off. 1 - She one-timed her volley, giving the defenders no time to react. 2 - She kept her shot low, instead of sailing it over the crossbar. I'm not sure how the ball made it through the hoi-polloi, but it did and Santa Clara was up 1 - 0 going into the half. Pepperdine increased the pressure in the 2nd half but really only created two good chances. One was a shot from outside into the upper v, but it needed more velocity to elude Henninger. Then their #25 just blew past the Bronco defense, but her far-post shot rolled wide. For the 1st time since 2007, Santa Clara won on senior day. This was Pepperdine's 1st loss of the season and knocked them out of 1st place and probably their #3 ranking. San Diego temporarily claimed the league lead because they had played one more game on Friday, but SCU pulled ahead with their win at LMU Sunday. LMU looked threatening to start the game, but Santa Clara went ahead when they were awarded a pk when the LMU keeper came out sliding and took out the player without getting the ball. When Henninger made the exact same play last year against LMU not only did they get the pk but Henninger got a red card. Today, the ref kept his cards in his pocket. Shim cooly converted the pk for the lead. Two minutes into the 2nd half Jackson made one of her excellent crosses and Miller headed it two feet for 2 - 0. Four goals in four games for Miller. After that Aozasa made the shot that Pepperdine couldn't when she rocketed one into the upper v from 25 yards out. Huerta finished the scoring when she shot one past the keeper despite the defender battling to keep her out. Henninger made a nice save on a hard shot by LMU. Both web sites emphasized the "diving" aspect of this save, but to me the impressive thing was the strong hands. It was a hard shot, but when Henninger got to it, it was absolutely not going in. Disappointed by the LMU facility. No shade, no bathrooms, and, surprise surprise, no fans. Perhaps a connection there? How 'bout ball girls? Nah! More than one guy at the concession stand? Nah! So the Broncos go into their final game against San Diego in 1st place with 6 wins and 1 tie. San Diego and Pepperdine both have 6 wins and a loss. Pepper dine concludes against USF. So Santa Clara will have to win to keep hold of 1st place. Televised on ESPNU at 6:00 on Friday.
A concession stand but no bathroom? That's an invitation for a disaster. Anyone heard any plans for a local view party on Friday? No fun watching alone.
#7 Santa Clara (6 - 0 - 1) v San Diego Torreros (6 - 1- 0) for the WCC championship. Neither team can afford a tie or a loss, presuming Pepperdine (6 - 1 - 0) beats USF (2 - 5 - 0). Santa Clara appears to be in the NCAA tourney regardless, San Diego may need a win to get in. San Diego has won 6 straight games after losing 5 straight coming into the WCC season. Their common opponents are UC Irvine and the rest of the WCC. Santa Clara tied UC Irvine 1 - 1 while San Diego lost 3 - 2, Santa Clara beat Pepperdine 1 - 0 while San Diego lost 1- 0, and Santa Clara tied BYU 0 - 0 while San Diego beat BYU 1 - 0. ` Santa Clara has scored 40 goals and surrendered 10, while San Diego has scored 30 and conceded 18. I predict a low scoring game. Whoever scores 1st will be tough to beat.
an ugly game for SCU, but better now than in the tournament. The bad loss probably will cost the Broncos a chance to host a tournament game, but maybe they will still get a first rounder, if lucky. It probably also means SCU is heading to Stanford if they make it past the first round. A costly loss.
We watched the game on ESPNU. The announcers were saying before the game that the field conditions favored San Diego's "long ball" style as vs. Santa Clara's possession style. Would you agree? If that's true, the worrisome thing is that the announcers also said that those type of field conditions weren't uncommon in tournament play, although I guess if they do have Stanford in front of them, field condition might be the least of their worries.